U.S. Politics NEXT!

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny. My first or second post in these threads was arguing that high growth can be meaningless if it isn't distributed throughout the population. This would seem to be proof positive. 

I agree that arguments over “growth” can be misleading and often arguing about it puts things in a frame of reference that is to the conservative’s advantage. Because, as you say, “growth” isn’t the same as “welfare”. And if you take the standard assumption in neoclassical economics that people’s marginal utility falls as they gain more goods that would seemingly mean the marginal utility of the poor and the middle class is going to be higher than the wealthy and the rich. So that would seem to suggest that welfare could be improved, even if you sacrificed some growth.

But, you know, the thing is that the Republican Party and the conservatives, as much as they crow about economic growth, aren’t that good at it. They do a lot of trash talk.

And they certainly haven’t demonstrated that they are better at it than liberals and Democrats, and that is something that liberals and Democrats should point out. Over the 20th century, Democratic Presidents did better on growth.

[maarsen]

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Is it too early yet to look forward to 2018?

I am going to predict this is a phrase you will hear a lot of next year: "reversion to the mean".

I mean with regard to the stock market, but it will probably be used more widely after a while.

As long as mean implying average rather than mean implying nasty is heard lots. Happy new year FB, and stay warm. 

[Martell Spy]

23 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny. My first or second post in these threads was arguing that high growth can be meaningless if it isn't distributed throughout the population. This would seem to be proof positive. 

You freaking ! I just came here to post this. 

Nothing surprising about this development. I expected as much in the coming days. Trump's behavior, as well as that of his fellow Republicans', indicates that there is legitimate fear that Mueller might find something. But the question remains, will the latter do anything if Mueller produces credible evidence that Trump's campaign colluded on some level with Russia?

The timing of when Mueller brings up something may matter quite a bit. What if he comes forward say 2 months before the 2018 election? Republicans might feel more pressure to do something or at least pretend they are. Also, as these things take time, it may happen after the election and Congress may have changed by then.

As for Reagan, well we just conducted a 40 year experiment in the U.S. of having our politicians constantly go down on the rich and we see the results. People under 45 are enormously worse off than their parents and grandparents. The rich have basically used their newfound power to hoard all the wealth and shower some of it on upper-tier professionals. Meanwhile they secret their wealth in tax havens like Russian oligarchs.

And of course Republicans will continue to work tirelessly to make this all worse, because their voter base is older and whiter. As long as they can keep the con going, they can force the young to work long decades in debt, to finance more luxurious lifestyles for their elders. And of course slash Social Security for anyone under 50.

[Dr. Pepper]

49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Funny. My first or second post in these threads was arguing that high growth can be meaningless if it isn't distributed throughout the population. This would seem to be proof positive. 

You freaking ! I just came here to post this. 

Nothing surprising about this development. I expected as much in the coming days. Trump's behavior, as well as that of his fellow Republicans', indicates that there is legitimate fear that Mueller might find something. But the question remains, will the latter do anything if Mueller produces credible evidence that Trump's campaign colluded on some level with Russia?

Depends on if the PR attacks will have proven successful.  Will Mueller even still be around by then?  I think it's unlikely and all that needs to happen is a little firing here or there and Mueller gets replaced and the investigation quietly goes away.  Maybe there will be leaks in the media about what Mueller and his team found, but the sorts of people who would vote for Trump are beyond being capable of living in reality so they are unlikely to care.  Or maybe they just won't care because they are anti-american.

[Martell Spy]

'Never Trump' Will Be the Only Faction Still Standing When He's Gone
When the Republican Party’s current coalition falls apart, those who stood up to bigotry will be the only ones with the credibility to rebuild.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/never-trump-is-conserving-decency-on-the-right/549197/

Betsy DeVos’s Gut Punch to Defrauded Students
The education secretary's latest move is another favor to for-profit colleges.

https://newrepublic.com/article/146417/betsy-devoss-gut-punch-defrauded-students

[maarsen]

38 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

I agree that arguments over “growth” can be misleading and often arguing about it puts things in a frame of reference that is to the conservative’s advantage. Because, as you say, “growth” isn’t the same as “welfare”. And if you take the standard assumption in neoclassical economics that people’s marginal utility falls as they gain more goods that would seemingly mean the marginal utility of the poor and the middle class is going to be higher than the wealthy and the rich. So that would seem to suggest that welfare could be improved, even if you sacrificed some growth.

But, you know, the thing is that the Republican Party and the conservatives, as much as they crow about economic growth, aren’t that good at it. They do a lot of trash talk.

And they certainly haven’t demonstrated that they are better at it than liberals and Democrats, and that is something that liberals and Democrats should point out. Over the 20th century, Democratic Presidents did better on growth.

Conservative governments in Canada have the same failing. The talk is all about looking out for the taxpayer,  but liberal governments do seem to actually grow the economy. 

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

'Never Trump' Will Be the Only Faction Still Standing When He's Gone
When the Republican Party’s current coalition falls apart, those who stood up to bigotry will be the only ones with the credibility to rebuild.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/never-trump-is-conserving-decency-on-the-right/549197/

 

Quote

It's an astonishing reversal for our country accompanied by the beginnings of an economic boom.”

More trash talk. The Republican Party: It's like that guy you played football with that's the last one to jump on the pile, and then gets up and runs around the field, pumping his fist, like an asshole, as if he were Jack Lambert that had just stuffed Larry Csonka at the line of scrimmage or something.

Quote

Neither George W. Bush nor John McCain nor Mitt Romney deserved criticism they got from some quarters for alleged racial animus.

Here’s my problem with this regarding Mitt Romney. Romney is one of those country club Republicans that is way too polished and savvy to say something overtly racist. And he may not even be racist. I don’t know. But, then he says shit like 47% of Americans are lazy bums basically. And I assume he’s not stupid, and he’s got to know that much of his base takes that as “minorities”. Same thing with Paul Ryan, when he talks about “makers and takers”.

Now I’d have less of problem (though I still would have a problem with the classist and elitist bullshit) if people like Ryan and Romney said “and we mean white people too. “ But something tells me they know what they are doing. And if they don’t know what they are doing, then they are being extremely stupid.

The thing with Trump is that he just says shit blatantly that a lot of country club Republicans think but are too “cultured” to say in public. 
 

[ants]

On 25/12/2017 at 11:23 PM, OldGimletEye said:

It's not a fair argument, because as I explained they used a healthcare inflation index to adjust for inflation rather than a general inflation index. Once again, using a healthcare inflation index tells me whether the consumption of the"basket" of healthcare goods increased in real terms. It does not tell me how the relative price of healthcare goods increased compared to other consumption goods. It does not tell me if increased healthcare spending is being burdensome on other consumption choices. For that you should use a general inflation index.

The whole point of the ACA was to increase real healthcare consumption, particularly among those whole didn't have it, while slowing down its burden on the consumption of other goods. It would seem it was successful in that.

Ah, sorry I missed that they’d used healthcare inflation to calculate real inflation rather than general inflation. Pretty ridiculous. And if the healthcare inflation index used is lower than general inflation (which it must be to have a higher ‘real’ interest rate) then that should have told them what is happening in the first place!

[Fragile Bird]

WTF? Richard Spencer is nominated for Texan of the year by the Dallas Morning News? Nominated in recognition of his toxic qualities?

Fuck, do I ever regret going to San Antonio for Worldcon a couple of years ago.

[drawkcabi]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

WTF? Richard Spencer is nominated for Texan of the year by the Dallas Morning News? Nominated in recognition of his toxic qualities?

Fuck, do I ever regret going to San Antonio for Worldcon a couple of years ago.

The toxic crusaders and ignorant blowhards may be in charge in Texas but never believe it isn't a state with great people in it. Austin is one of the most liberal cities in the country, Texas is still a red state, not even a purple state yet, but Austin is a seed and along with the immigrant and Hispanic communities running through the veins of the state it will eventually turn. Aron Ra is one of my personal heroes for his taking on of the Texas school board, going out of his way to provide supplemental actual science learning free online for kids, and his Quixotic quest running for a seat in the state senate. Lastly, even though I wasn't there I bet that even besides you there were some other awesome people at Worldcon making it worth it.

 

[Jace, Extat]

7 minutes ago, drawkcabi said:

The toxic crusaders and ignorant blowhards may be in charge in Texas but never believe it isn't a state with great people in it. Austin is one of the most liberal cities in the country, Texas is still a red state, not even a purple state yet, but Austin is a seed and along with the immigrant and Hispanic communities running through the veins of the state it will eventually turn. Aron Ra is one of my personal heroes for his taking on of the Texas school board, going out of his way to provide supplemental actual science learning free online for kids, and his Quixotic quest running for a seat in the state senate. Lastly, even though I wasn't there I bet that even besides you there were some other awesome people at Worldcon making it worth it.

 

They nominated a Nazi. Everything you said is falsified on that basis.

Please stop spreading lies.

[Guy Kilmore]

Here is the article regarding the nomination.  There isn't any praise and more condemnation.  It is the same reason Orrin Hatch got nominated, basically a scathing report.

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2017/12/26/villainof-year-noxious-influence-alt-right-leader-richard-spencer

[drawkcabi]

1 hour ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

They nominated a Nazi. Everything you said is falsified on that basis.

Please stop spreading lies.

Our country elected a white supremacist president. It's a lousy country. Texas is a lousy state.

Both still have good people in it. Both still have potential. Both can still be redeemed. 

Unless Germany is still a lost cause then that must be true.

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

Yeah not sure why you'd let one dipshit make an enjoyable vacation you once took now a become a regrettable experience.  I mean, by that token you should never go anywhere.

[ants]

6 hours ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

They nominated a Nazi. Everything you said is falsified on that basis.

Please stop spreading lies.

So those having a go at the paper happy to apologise?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

14 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Depends on if the PR attacks will have proven successful.  Will Mueller even still be around by then?  I think it's unlikely and all that needs to happen is a little firing here or there and Mueller gets replaced and the investigation quietly goes away.  Maybe there will be leaks in the media about what Mueller and his team found, but the sorts of people who would vote for Trump are beyond being capable of living in reality so they are unlikely to care.  Or maybe they just won't care because they are anti-american.

I really think that if Trump were going to fire Mueller he would have done it on 12/22 as everyone was distracted by the Holiday.  I think Trump recognizes that firing Mueller would be a huge firestorm.  One he may not be sure he can weather.  As such he will keep obfuscating and attempting to deflect culpability for his agent's actions.  I will be surprised if Trump actually attempts a Saturday Night Massacre.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

11 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

WTF? Richard Spencer is nominated for Texan of the year by the Dallas Morning News? Nominated in recognition of his toxic qualities?

Fuck, do I ever regret going to San Antonio for Worldcon a couple of years ago.

FB,

Is "Texan of the Year" like Times "Person of the Year" where it isn't an honor but a recognition of someone who had major impact on current events?  Remember Hitler was Times "Person of the Year in 1938.  Stalin was PoY in 1939 and 1942.  Ayatollah Khomeini was PoY in 1979.  Because someone is selected for something like this it isn't necessarily an accolade.  

[Paladin of Ice]

11 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

WTF? Richard Spencer is nominated for Texan of the year by the Dallas Morning News? Nominated in recognition of his toxic qualities?

Fuck, do I ever regret going to San Antonio for Worldcon a couple of years ago.

 

8 hours ago, Guy Kilmore said:

Here is the article regarding the nomination.  There isn't any praise and more condemnation.  It is the same reason Orrin Hatch got nominated, basically a scathing report.

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2017/12/26/villainof-year-noxious-influence-alt-right-leader-richard-spencer

Yeah, maybe people should practice what they preach and read the full story instead of jumping to conclusions based on surface appearances.

From Guy Kilmore's link:

Quote

Richard Spencer's website features bigoted ideas disguised as commentary. Shrill posts carry titles such as "White Alabamans were stabbed in the back!" and "Only the alt-right can save the Jews." In a video Spencer complains: "We're told being an American is about being dedicated to a collection of abstractions and buzzwords: Democracy. Freedom. Tolerance. Multi-culturalism."

Spencer, a Dallas native, is credited with coining the term alt-right. His speeches and writings represent a new breed of white supremacy that seeks to sound mainstream while adhering to the same ugliness spouted by the likes of former KKK leader David Duke. But unlike Duke, Spencer in 2017 portrayed white nationalists as victims of what he calls an "anti-white agenda," expanding his appeal to people who are fed up with a multitude of social and economic issues. His influence on national politics even drew the wrath of Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse who called Spencer a "brown-shirt-pajama-boy Nazi."

For his uncommon negative impact, Spencer, who did not respond to interview requests for this editorial, is a finalist for the 15th annual Dallas Morning News Texan of the Year. This designation is not meant as an award but as recognition of those Texans who had uncommon impact, which can be a positive or negative impact, during the past year.

"I would argue for this generation he's the most recognizable white nationalist figure," said Keegan Hankes, a researcher for the Southern Poverty Law Center. The Anti-Defamation League agrees, calling Spencer "the most recognizable public face of the alt-right."

According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, Spencer has been sickeningly strategic about making his white nationalism sound almost academic. He graduated from St. Mark's School of Texas and earned undergraduate degrees in English and music from the University of Virginia and a master's in humanities from the University of Chicago; Spencer surely knows the world of academia.

...

Spencer's pernicious influence on public opinion can be seen in the large number of speaking engagements he had this year. And when Spencer speaks, violence often follows. In August Spencer appeared at a torch march in Charlottesville, Va.,  where a white nationalist later killed a protester. 

When Spencer announced he would give a speech at the University of Florida in October, Gov. Rick Scott declared a state of emergency and requested a larger police presence at the event. After the speech, three of Spencer's supporters were arrested for attempted homicide. 

...

Spencer is exploiting America's perception that it is deeply divided. So long as Spencer can portray whites as victims in his imagined cultural war, he will continue to have an impact.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

16 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

I agree that arguments over “growth” can be misleading and often arguing about it puts things in a frame of reference that is to the conservative’s advantage. Because, as you say, “growth” isn’t the same as “welfare”. And if you take the standard assumption in neoclassical economics that people’s marginal utility falls as they gain more goods that would seemingly mean the marginal utility of the poor and the middle class is going to be higher than the wealthy and the rich. So that would seem to suggest that welfare could be improved, even if you sacrificed some growth.

But, you know, the thing is that the Republican Party and the conservatives, as much as they crow about economic growth, aren’t that good at it. They do a lot of trash talk.

And they certainly haven’t demonstrated that they are better at it than liberals and Democrats, and that is something that liberals and Democrats should point out. Over the 20th century, Democratic Presidents did better on growth.

100% agree.

16 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

The timing of when Mueller brings up something may matter quite a bit. What if he comes forward say 2 months before the 2018 election? Republicans might feel more pressure to do something or at least pretend they are. Also, as these things take time, it may happen after the election and Congress may have changed by then.

As for Reagan, well we just conducted a 40 year experiment in the U.S. of having our politicians constantly go down on the rich and we see the results. People under 45 are enormously worse off than their parents and grandparents. The rich have basically used their newfound power to hoard all the wealth and shower some of it on upper-tier professionals. Meanwhile they secret their wealth in tax havens like Russian oligarchs.

And of course Republicans will continue to work tirelessly to make this all worse, because their voter base is older and whiter. As long as they can keep the con going, they can force the young to work long decades in debt, to finance more luxurious lifestyles for their elders. And of course slash Social Security for anyone under 50.

Have to disagree here. If Mueller’s report comes out two months before the election and it indicts Trump and/or his campaign, I’m almost certain that Republicans, especially in the House, will accuse it of being politically motivated to affect the elections and will fight it tooth and nail.

I agree with the rest of your post though.

16 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Depends on if the PR attacks will have proven successful.  Will Mueller even still be around by then?  I think it's unlikely and all that needs to happen is a little firing here or there and Mueller gets replaced and the investigation quietly goes away.  Maybe there will be leaks in the media about what Mueller and his team found, but the sorts of people who would vote for Trump are beyond being capable of living in reality so they are unlikely to care.  Or maybe they just won't care because they are anti-american.

I think it’s still more likely than not that Trump doesn’t fire Mueller. As dumb as Trump appears, I think he learned his lesson when he fired Comey. His goal at this point is to discredit Mueller to give his hacks in the House cover to not act on the results of the report.

Also, it appears that House Republicans are considering ways to defund the investigation. That’s another way to shut this whole thing down.

[Week]

Shocking News Alert:

http://www.vulture.com/2017/12/milo-yiannopoulos-book-editor-comments.html

Mitchell Ivers (S&S Editor) hated Milo's "manuscript" because it was garbage -- and also poorly written.