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divica

A new look at the puple wedding

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So we all know litlefinger's story. To cut a long story short to me it has 2 major problems.

1) There is no reason for olenna to sneak poison via sansa's hairnet (like was anyone going to body search olenna tyrell?) and if she was going to commit regicide would she plot it with littlefinger? A dude all smart people distrust and that sold her the whole marriage and is a known lannister friend?

2) LF motives for killing joffrey are flimsy at best and what did the tyrells offer him? He would need an amazing price to get the poison and keep silent about the whole scheme… And I don t think they would give him sansa who has a claim to the north…

So what I am sugesting is if LF was able to frame tyrion (and there is some circunstancial evidence that LF could manipulate joff) then instead of killing just joffrey shouldn t he want to kill joffrey AND margaery and frame tyrion for it?

I mean, by killing the 2 of them it would create a new wave of chaos. The lannister/tyrell aliance would crumble and a new war might even start because the lannisters can t hold westeros alone and the only region that would join them is the vale. And who has great influence in the vale? LITTLEFINGER.

This would exclude olenna from the scheme. So the poison was sneaked within the hairnet because whoever used it couldn t bring the poison into the wedding any other way…

Then the poison would be in the wine and joffrey took so much time to choke because the dose used was smaller than the one used in the prologue so that both joff and marg would drink the wine before the sintoms manifested.

Tyrion would still be acused and dontos would be able to steal sansa away. However there would be so much chaos that nobody would care about sansa. The tyrells and lannisters would be at each others throats. This would work better for LF.

And then as lisa's new husband he would be in a very strong position because the lannisters needed the vale in order to keep the IT. Sudenly LF would be one of the most powerful people in westeros! 

 

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7 hours ago, divica said:

 

2) LF motives for killing joffrey are flimsy at best and what did the tyrells offer him?

1. Joffrey was prone to anger and hard to control.  2. LF gains the favour of the Tyrell's including the HOTK, the Queen, the most capable of the Kingsguard, the and probably more members of the small council. 3. Gaining Sansa, an heir to Winterfell. She now has to cling to him for survival. 4. It makes Cercei more unstable

Quote

I mean, by killing the 2 of them it would create a new wave of chaos. 

Margarey is playing the game of thrones at KL with LF right now. She as well as the other Tyrells are beginning to do away with the old establishment of KL, the Lannister establishment. This, of course makes Cercei extremely paranoid and leads to a number of her fumbles throughout AFFC. On top of that, with the Tyrells being able to accumulate more influence, they are a far more effective buffer between LF and the Lannisters. Besides, Tyrion and Sansa don't have very good motives to kill Margarey, the Tyrell's would definitely be fishy about Sansa killing Margarey.

The only big question that I have about the purple wedding isn't what LF gets out of helping the Tyrells, but rather what the Tyrell's get out of working with LF. It seems that letting LF in on the scheme creates an unnecessary loose end.

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30 minutes ago, Aurane said:

The only big question that I have about the purple wedding isn't what LF gets out of helping the Tyrells, but rather what the Tyrell's get out of working with LF. It seems that letting LF in on the scheme creates an unnecessary loose end.

Yeah LF is a liability. But I think that Marge marrying the more easily controllable Tommen would be a worthy trade off.

My question is how the poison actually got in to the chalice? Mace gifted it.... If it was the same one, that is.

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8 hours ago, divica said:

So we all know litlefinger's story. To cut a long story short to me it has 2 major problems.

1) There is no reason for olenna to sneak poison via sansa's hairnet (like was anyone going to body search olenna tyrell?) and if she was going to commit regicide would she plot it with littlefinger? A dude all smart people distrust and that sold her the whole marriage and is a known lannister friend?

2) LF motives for killing joffrey are flimsy at best and what did the tyrells offer him? He would need an amazing price to get the poison and keep silent about the whole scheme… And I don t think they would give him sansa who has a claim to the north…

So what I am sugesting is if LF was able to frame tyrion (and there is some circunstancial evidence that LF could manipulate joff) then instead of killing just joffrey shouldn t he want to kill joffrey AND margaery and frame tyrion for it?

I mean, by killing the 2 of them it would create a new wave of chaos. The lannister/tyrell aliance would crumble and a new war might even start because the lannisters can t hold westeros alone and the only region that would join them is the vale. And who has great influence in the vale? LITTLEFINGER.

This would exclude olenna from the scheme. So the poison was sneaked within the hairnet because whoever used it couldn t bring the poison into the wedding any other way…

Then the poison would be in the wine and joffrey took so much time to choke because the dose used was smaller than the one used in the prologue so that both joff and marg would drink the wine before the sintoms manifested.

Tyrion would still be acused and dontos would be able to steal sansa away. However there would be so much chaos that nobody would care about sansa. The tyrells and lannisters would be at each others throats. This would work better for LF.

And then as lisa's new husband he would be in a very strong position because the lannisters needed the vale in order to keep the IT. Sudenly LF would be one of the most powerful people in westeros! 

 

Close, but there are still problems. 

First, we know Lady Olenna was the one to take the poison, so she was plotting with Littlefinger. And if the target was Joffrey and the wine, she would know, and not care, that this would place Margaery at tremendous risk.

Secondly, the Tyrell motives for killing Joffrey are even flimsier than Littlefinger's. Joffrey is the means to achieve one of their top goals: to make Margaery a queen and put a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. Once she squeaks out an heir or two, there are plenty of ways to get rid of Joffrey quietly and in private, not in front of 1000 witnesses when virtually the entire Tyrell family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And then Margaery rules as regent until her son comes of age. Surely she can withstand a few bruises and bloody lips for that prize.

This is why the target has to be Tyrion and the poison in the pie. Both LF and LO have their own motivations for killing him: LF to hide all his shady dealings with the crown's gold and LO to prevent the Lannisters from gaining control of the north.

Also, there is still no way could Littlefinger possibly predict all the twists and turns it took to not only get Tyrion's hands all over the chalice but to have Joffrey place the chalice in the exact spot where it can be poisoned. A foot to the left or to the right and the whole plan would have gone bust.

And remember, the only reason LF needs to create this convoluted plan to kill Joffrey and frame Tyrion is because Tyrion is married to Sansa. But it was LF who tipped the Lannisters off to the Willas plan in the first place -- which would certainly have the predictable results of wedding Sansa to some Lannister -- even though the plan was to bring Sansa to Highgarden after Margaery had become queen. If LF's plan was to take Sansa at the wedding, why would he needlessly increase the complexity of his plan by multiple orders of magnitude just to prevent something that wasn't going to happen anyway?

Also, the dose used in Joffrey's wine was not smaller, it was larger: a full crystal vs. a "flake." And even though there was more wine in the chalice than Cressen's cup, Joffrey's wine was "deep purple" at the end of the scene vs. Cressen's wine that didn't appear unusual in any way. If the crystal had been dropped in before Joffrey drank, then he should have started choking sooner than Cressen -- assuming, of course, that relative concentration of poison would affect the timing of the attack, which is completely contrary to science.

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34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Close, but there are still problems. 

First, we know Lady Olenna was the one to take the poison, so she was plotting with Littlefinger. And if the target was Joffrey and the wine, she would know, and not care, that this would place Margaery at tremendous risk.

Secondly, the Tyrell motives for killing Joffrey are even flimsier than Littlefinger's. Joffrey is the means to achieve one of their top goals: to make Margaery a queen and put a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. Once she squeaks out an heir or two, there are plenty of ways to get rid of Joffrey quietly and in private, not in front of 1000 witnesses when virtually the entire Tyrell family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And then Margaery rules as regent until her son comes of age. Surely she can withstand a few bruises and bloody lips for that prize.

This is why the target has to be Tyrion and the poison in the pie. Both LF and LO have their own motivations for killing him: LF to hide all his shady dealings with the crown's gold and LO to prevent the Lannisters from gaining control of the north.

Also, there is still no way could Littlefinger possibly predict all the twists and turns it took to not only get Tyrion's hands all over the chalice but to have Joffrey place the chalice in the exact spot where it can be poisoned. A foot to the left or to the right and the whole plan would have gone bust.

And remember, the only reason LF needs to create this convoluted plan to kill Joffrey and frame Tyrion is because Tyrion is married to Sansa. But it was LF who tipped the Lannisters off to the Willas plan in the first place -- which would certainly have the predictable results of wedding Sansa to some Lannister -- even though the plan was to bring Sansa to Highgarden after Margaery had become queen. If LF's plan was to take Sansa at the wedding, why would he needlessly increase the complexity of his plan by multiple orders of magnitude just to prevent something that wasn't going to happen anyway?

Also, the dose used in Joffrey's wine was not smaller, it was larger: a full crystal vs. a "flake." And even though there was more wine in the chalice than Cressen's cup, Joffrey's wine was "deep purple" at the end of the scene vs. Cressen's wine that didn't appear unusual in any way. If the crystal had been dropped in before Joffrey drank, then he should have started choking sooner than Cressen -- assuming, of course, that relative concentration of poison would affect the timing of the attack, which is completely contrary to science.

My big problem here is if we really know that it was lady olenna that used the poison? Because that is simply what LF says. It doesn t have to be true… For the porpuses of the topic LF might just not want to tell sansa that he tried to kill both joffrey and margaery (she liked marg) and frame tyrion for it. He would look like a monster that was willing to bring westeros into chaos for his own benefit. 

Then you might ask what he would say to sansa if he had accomplished to kill marg and joff. And I think he would simply say that marg's death was an accident and that it was the only way to save her and then make a sad face =( .

Another problem with lady olenna being involved in the assassination plot is that she would need to suspect that LF abducted sansa. She met sansa and knows her a little and she also knows that she didn t kill joff and that the only person who might have a rescue plan organised for that moment is LF... I am not saying she would be certain, but she would keep an eye on him and if rumors about a bastard daughter appeared she would send someone to investigate it.

So if we consider that the poisoner was a servant or someone like that he wanted to target both marg and joff most of your objection about the poison being in the disapear. The part about a delayed effet can be done about several ways that would make sense in the story. I admit that I am not a specialist in asoiaf poisons, but surelly there is a way to delay the effects of a poison for a few moments if it makes sense and grrm wants it. And the color of the wine is kind of unimportant but to me it was always a RED wine (red being the type of wine) with the color purple (purple being the color of the RED wine) and that this creates an intention word play to confuse the reader.

 

On a side note. It would also be interesting if LF wanted to kill tyrion and frame the tyrells for it. And the failed marriage to wyllas would be a pretty good motive... and this conflict would put a lot of strain on the lannister/tyrell alliance. That would also be good for him but lady olenna would once again not be involved.

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Yeah LF is a liability. But I think that Marge marrying the more easily controllable Tommen would be a worthy trade off.

My question is how the poison actually got in to the chalice? Mace gifted it.... If it was the same one, that is.

What if LF decided to tell the lannisters that lady ollena contacted him before the wedding to buy the poison (and he obviously refused)?

LF is just a huge liability for the rest of his life. The tyrells would be blackmailed by him for ever

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2 hours ago, Aurane said:

1. Joffrey was prone to anger and hard to control.  2. LF gains the favour of the Tyrell's including the HOTK, the Queen, the most capable of the Kingsguard, the and probably more members of the small council. 3. Gaining Sansa, an heir to Winterfell. She now has to cling to him for survival. 4. It makes Cercei more unstable

You are making a mistake. LF had no way of knowing tyrion would escape a kill tywin. With tywin around LF would gain nothing. Tywin would be hand of the king and regent and rule as he saw fit. 

Even marg would be a poor help. She would be queen but have zero power as long as tywin is in power with cersei around. Even cersei would be controled and with tyrion dead more stable.

Tywin wouls find ways to limit the tyrell's power in the small council and while he would gain sansa, with a stable KL once rumors about a bastard daughter start appearing someone would investigate it… It would pretty hard for LF to hide sansa for a long period of time...

So while he gains the suport of the tyrells it is not like they are friends or he can control them like he did with joffrey...

On the whole joff's death brings stability to westeros which should be bad for LF...

2 hours ago, Aurane said:

Margarey is playing the game of thrones at KL with LF right now. She as well as the other Tyrells are beginning to do away with the old establishment of KL, the Lannister establishment. This, of course makes Cercei extremely paranoid and leads to a number of her fumbles throughout AFFC. On top of that, with the Tyrells being able to accumulate more influence, they are a far more effective buffer between LF and the Lannisters. Besides, Tyrion and Sansa don't have very good motives to kill Margarey, the Tyrell's would definitely be fishy about Sansa killing Margarey.

The only big question that I have about the purple wedding isn't what LF gets out of helping the Tyrells, but rather what the Tyrell's get out of working with LF. It seems that letting LF in on the scheme creates an unnecessary loose end.

This part I like much more. And I think it might make sense for the tyrells. Marg and tommen are very young and tywin is old. As a long term plan having a king marg can control while they gain a foothold in KL and take control of westeros once tywin is dead is a pretty good plan.

We will never be sure if this would be the case because of the way things turned out, but it was very well thought.

And I completly agree with you at the end. I see no reason for the tyrells to include LF in a regicide plan...

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12 minutes ago, divica said:

What if LF decided to tell the lannisters that lady ollena contacted him before the wedding to buy the poison (and he obviously refused)?

Pre-wedding, might have worked. Post wedding, not so much. LOL

Stupid question but I assume you mean pre-wedding?

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Olenna wants everyone to think Mace is a baffling buffoon unable to do something like poisoning the king, so when he in fact did it no one would suspect him. I mean why would you go around telling everyone that will listen that the leader of your House and father of your grandchildren is an idiot?  Underestimate Mace Tyrell at your own peril. 

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1 minute ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Pre-wedding, might have worked. Post wedding, not so much. LOL

Stupid question but I assume you mean pre-wedding?

Just because she asked for the poison doesn t mean that he knew on whom she would use it. 

Poor LF, how can he know everything? If he had an inkling that ollena wanted to kill the noble joffrey he would have done everything in his power to stop her…

Or he might just say he had someone inform him that before the wedding olenna wanted to buy that type of poison and provide some type of proof.

Or he might simply have warned the lannisters that she would poison the chalice/pie and if they confirmed it at the wedding he would gain even more favor with them and olenna would be fucked...

There are so many ways for this to go wrong...

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8 minutes ago, divica said:

Just because she asked for the poison doesn t mean that he knew on whom she would use it. 

Poor LF, how can he know everything? If he had an inkling that ollena wanted to kill the noble joffrey he would have done everything in his power to stop her…

Or he might just say he had someone inform him that before the wedding olenna wanted to buy that type of poison and provide some type of proof.

Or he might simply have warned the lannisters that she would poison the chalice/pie and if they confirmed it at the wedding he would gain even more favor with them and olenna would be fucked...

There are so many ways for this to go wrong...

LF says himself that he "thrives on chaos", so who knows. He is rather good at what he does it seems.

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Of course Littlefinger has a motive for killing Joffrey - to silence an accomplice he cannot rely on to stay silent.  He kills Lysa Arryn for exactly the same reason shortly afterwards.

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10 hours ago, divica said:

1) There is no reason for olenna to sneak poison via sansa's hairnet (like was anyone going to body search olenna tyrell?) and if she was going to commit regicide would she plot it with littlefinger? A dude all smart people distrust and that sold her the whole marriage and is a known lannister friend?

Of course there was. The harnet was supposed to be the the incriminating evidence.

Littlefinger wasn't supposed to help Sansa escape, and she was the one supposed the take the fall. She's the perfect scapegoat, with no friends at court and with obvious motives: revenge for the deaths of Ned and Robb, and having been repudiated by Joffrey. Once she had been found with a hairnet full of tear of lys, not even a trial would be needed.

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Just now, The hairy bear said:

Of course there was. The harnet was supposed to be the the incriminating evidence.

Yes, it seems likely Olena saw it this way.

Otherwise. It seems stupid to implicate Sansa into the murder. She is far from the most reliable accomplice. But by doing so, LF bind her closely to him. Cersei would suspect her (and Tyrion) anyway. But this way Sansa can't claim she is totally innocent, at any time later.

For the Tyrell, to associate with LF is extremely hazardous. But I would say they had no choice. They had to kill Joffrey. If only to avoid Loras, some day, to dishonor their house by killing the king. Thanks to LF good office in promoting Loras to the KG. It is probably LF who broached the question. He gains a lever against the Tyrells, a powerful family led by no-nonsense people. The one family, not decimated, not under his control, not led by easily manipulated idiots. And having interests in the kingdom. Of course there was still Tywin, but one at a time...

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LF didn't sell Olenna on the marriage, no-one sold Olenna on the marriage, Olenna didn't want the marriage, either marriage to Renly or Joff, she wanted the Tyrells to have fuck all to do with the Lannisters and feared where things were headed. She came because she couldn't stop it happening, Lord Pufferfish wanted the marriage and didn't give a fuck that Olenna didn't, and Lord Pufferfish makes the calls for House Tyrell, not Olenna. Olenna's power is only what she can convince Lord Pufferfish of. So Olenna came to "see it through", as in ascertain if LF was telling the truth about Joff and then comply with the plan LF had sold her on to prevent the inevitable catastrophe LF had also sold her.

3 hours ago, Lord Browndodd said:

Of course Littlefinger has a motive for killing Joffrey - to silence an accomplice he cannot rely on to stay silent.  He kills Lysa Arryn for exactly the same reason shortly afterwards.

Absolutely. LF almost certainly swayed Joff into Ned's execution and that he couldn't have ever getting back to Sansa or Cersei or Tywin or anyone with any sense.

Here,

Quote

"There is a long league's worth of difference between willful and stupid. 'A strong king acts boldly?' Who told him that?"

"Not me, I promise you," said Cersei. "Most like it was something he heard Robert say . . ."

"The part about you hiding under Casterly Rock does sound like Robert." Tyrion didn't want Lord Tywin forgetting that bit.

"Yes, I recall now," Cersei said, "Robert often told Joff that a king must be bold."

conversations/questions like these forever run the risk of outing LF as Joff's puppet master so long as Joff lives. Had Tywin asked Joff directly who told him this it could have all unravelled and ended with LF's head on a pike.

Edited by chrisdaw

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I think there are just so many suspects for this: who's to say he wasn't poisoned by every soul there!? 

  • Lord Tywin, doesn't particularly care for the rotten boy
  • Lady Olenna  - doesn't care to have him wed to her sweet granddaughter
  • Margaery - she kept insisting on all those toasts - she doesn't have to actually be drinking from the chalice, easiest person to poison the wine
  • LF - yep, can totally see this, but who is his accomplice? 
  • and that lovely gold broach from Oberyn Martell

Got to wonder how many people tried to poison him.
Maybe he got a double or triple dose.

  • pie
  • wine
  • chalice itself was a gift from the Tyrell's
Edited by Wolfkin

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LF isn’t a single-minded, chaos-making, bull-in-a-china-shop idiot. He has a goal(s). He makes plans years and years out ahead. But when unexpected things happen, he does his best to maximize the opportunity rather than waste an unplanned advantage when it falls into his lap. He’s comfortable (arrogant?) enough in his abilities to improvise that he doesn’t shy away from very risky decisions. He's an opportunist in the extreme.

AFFC Alayne II

He did not hold her kiss against her. "You would not believe half of what is happening in King's Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

1: LF is thinking of taking out Cersei because she’s too chaotic and ruining his schedule. A mess isn't always in LF's favor. 

2. 4 or 5 years for seeds to ripen, he’s mapping out possible options years in advance.

3. Chaos is being inflicted upon LF here and he's not causing it himself it in this statement. This is the only reference to chaos & LF in the books. 

 

Basically, if a reader tries to breakdown LF’s motivations to just wanting to make the maximum amount of mess, they're going to miss the mark as there's more going on than that. 

 

Edited by Lollygag

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19 hours ago, divica said:

My big problem here is if we really know that it was lady olenna that used the poison? Because that is simply what LF says. It doesn t have to be true… For the porpuses of the topic LF might just not want to tell sansa that he tried to kill both joffrey and margaery (she liked marg) and frame tyrion for it. He would look like a monster that was willing to bring westeros into chaos for his own benefit. 

Then you might ask what he would say to sansa if he had accomplished to kill marg and joff. And I think he would simply say that marg's death was an accident and that it was the only way to save her and then make a sad face =( .

Another problem with lady olenna being involved in the assassination plot is that she would need to suspect that LF abducted sansa. She met sansa and knows her a little and she also knows that she didn t kill joff and that the only person who might have a rescue plan organised for that moment is LF... I am not saying she would be certain, but she would keep an eye on him and if rumors about a bastard daughter appeared she would send someone to investigate it.

So if we consider that the poisoner was a servant or someone like that he wanted to target both marg and joff most of your objection about the poison being in the disapear. The part about a delayed effet can be done about several ways that would make sense in the story. I admit that I am not a specialist in asoiaf poisons, but surelly there is a way to delay the effects of a poison for a few moments if it makes sense and grrm wants it. And the color of the wine is kind of unimportant but to me it was always a RED wine (red being the type of wine) with the color purple (purple being the color of the RED wine) and that this creates an intention word play to confuse the reader.

 

On a side note. It would also be interesting if LF wanted to kill tyrion and frame the tyrells for it. And the failed marriage to wyllas would be a pretty good motive... and this conflict would put a lot of strain on the lannister/tyrell alliance. That would also be good for him but lady olenna would once again not be involved.

Sorry, but there is absolutely no way LF could plan that Tyrion would be framed. There is no way to predict that he would be anywhere near the chalice at all, let alone be responsible for filling it and handing it to the king. And without that, Sansa is next to useless because as long as she is married to Tyrion she is of no value to anyone else.

Secondly, lets look at Lady Olenna and her adjustment of the hairnet:

Quote

"You do look quite exquisite, child," Lady Olenna Tyrell told Sansa when she tottered up to them in a cloth-of-gold gown that must have weighted more than she did. "The wind has been at your hair, though." The little old woman reached up and fussed at the loose strands, tucking them back into place and straightening Sansa's hair net.

First, Sansa cannot see the back of her own head, so she has no idea whether there are loose strands or nor. Secondly, if you look through the previous chapters, you'll not find a single mention of wind that day. Inside the litter it is "warm and stuffy" even though outside in the yard there is "crisp autumn air" If the wind was blowing then the cool air would be inside the litter. And besides, isn't the purpose of a hairnet to keep the hair in place even when the wind is blowing? So it should have taken quite a gust out of nowhere to undo Sansa's hair, which most certainly would not have happened without her or Tyrion, or anybody else, noticing.

And thirdly, to believe that Lady O just happened to adjust the hairnet before the wedding would mean that, yet again, the luckiest man in the world has been given yet another stroke of unbelievably good luck. I mean, no matter what his plan is, everybody just happens to do the most unlikely things in order to make it all work out for Littlefinger.

And finally, why would he need to lie to Sansa about this part of the plan? If he did it all by himself, why share credit with the Tyrells? He killed Dontos right before Sansa's eyes, and she liked him too. Why would he think she would suddenly consider him a monster for killing Margaery?

Littlefinger is nowhere near the capital, so there is no reason why anyone, including Lady O, would think he was involved. Varys probably suspects, but that's about it. Lady O has met Sansa once, so she has no idea what she is capable of. But there are plenty of other reasons why she would think Sansa did not do it, the main one being that the chalice only came near her through a completely unpredictable sequence of events.

Meanwhile, Lady O's motivation for killing Tyrion is plain as day: to prevent the Lannisters from gaining control of the north. So now that they have no hope of marrying Sansa to Willas, nor do they have any means of sneaking her out of the castle without a little bid knowing about it, the lesser of two evils is to let Littlefinger have her.

No, the objections to the wine do not disappear with a trusted servant; in fact, they become even more acute. The only servant to touch the wine was the girl that Tyrion took the flagon from. But Joffrey drank that wine before the cutting ceremony, so we know it was not poisoned then. The chalice then sat on the table right in front of Tyrion, and no servant touched it, nor should they considering Tyrion is now cupbearer and only he is allowed to pour wine for the king

There is also no rational way to explain Joffrey's delayed reaction. People say there was some delaying agent, which is not only a text-free, fact-free excuse, but entirely illogical. Why should anyone care whether the poison takes affect in five seconds or 25 seconds? If LF's objective here is to kill Joffrey and not Margaery, then why deliberately alter the poison only to hope that somehow Joff drinks but not Margy, particularly at a formal ceremony like this when the married couple is expected to share a toast?

The dilution theory is equally implausible. Not only is Joff's wine "deep purple" at the end, but the fact is that relative dilution between the two poisons would only affect the intensity of the attack, not the timing. Without doubt, the strangler is a contact poison: it penetrates the soft palate and goes directly to work on the muscles or larynx or whatever it does to close off the windpipe. It does not bypass the throat, enter the stomach, become absorbed in the bloodstream, circulate throughout the body and then collect in the throat. If it did, it would take several minutes for either victim to succumb, and far longer for Joffrey because he is working on a full stomach. So the strangler is not like arsenic or snake venom, but more like bleach or ammonia.

So let's imagine what would happen if you were to drink a shot of straight ammonia. It would burn you instantly, and you would probably die. If you were to pour the shot into a large glass of water, it would still burn you instantly but not as badly, and you might survive. If you placed a tiny drop of ammonia in the large glass of water, you probably wouldn't notice it at all, but then it wouldn't reconcentrate itself inside your body to come back and burn your throat. Sorry, but this is just not the way chemistry and human physiology work. The facts in the text are clear: there is absolutely no way the poison could have been in the wine.

The purple wine on Joffrey's throat is easily explainable as the affect of thin layers of wine translucent on Joffrey's pale white skin illuminated by orange torch- and candlelight reflected off a golden chalice. What's not feasible is that this purple wine would then look red when spilled on the dais only to then turn deep purple at the end.

Killing anybody and framing the Tyrells would require a Tyrell to have been anywhere near the hairnet, and this is simply not something that Littlefinger could have planned.

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13 hours ago, Lollygag said:

LF isn’t a single-minded, chaos-making, bull-in-a-china-shop idiot. He has a goal(s). He makes plans years and years out ahead. But when unexpected things happen, he does his best to maximize the opportunity rather than waste an unplanned advantage when it falls into his lap. He’s comfortable (arrogant?) enough in his abilities to improvise that he doesn’t shy away from very risky decisions. He's an opportunist in the extreme.

AFFC Alayne II

He did not hold her kiss against her. "You would not believe half of what is happening in King's Landing, sweetling. Cersei stumbles from one idiocy to the next, helped along by her council of the deaf, the dim, and the blind. I always anticipated that she would beggar the realm and destroy herself, but I never expected she would do it quite so fast. It is quite vexing. I had hoped to have four or five quiet years to plant some seeds and allow some fruits to ripen, but now . . . it is a good thing that I thrive on chaos. What little peace and order the five kings left us will not long survive the three queens, I fear."

1: LF is thinking of taking out Cersei because she’s too chaotic and ruining his schedule. A mess isn't always in LF's favor. 

2. 4 or 5 years for seeds to ripen, he’s mapping out possible options years in advance.

3. Chaos is being inflicted upon LF here and he's not causing it himself it in this statement. This is the only reference to chaos & LF in the books. 

 

Basically, if a reader tries to breakdown LF’s motivations to just wanting to make the maximum amount of mess, they're going to miss the mark as there's more going on than that. 

 

True, but there is a difference between chaos caused by someone you cannot control and chaos caused by someone you can control. And Littlefinger is one of two people on the planet who have demonstrated an ability to control Joffrey, the other being Margaery and, by extension, Lady Olenna.

So with Joffrey, they have the perfect piece through which to further their Games of Thrones right away, whereas without him they have to wait five years while Cersei continues on as Queen Regent with Tywin as Hand.

And you'll note that the only reason Littlefinger now has to deal with Cersei's chaos is because Tywin is dead. And who was responsible for that little bit of uncontrollable, unforeseeable chaos? Tyrion.

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

And Littlefinger is one of two people on the planet who have demonstrated an ability to control Joffrey, the other being Margaery and, by extension, Lady Olenna.

Cersei? Heres her ruining Joffrey's favorite game 

Quote

His face darkened. "I am. I'm your father, and I can marry you to whoever I like. To anyone. You'll marry the pig boy if I say so, and bed down with him in the sty." His green eyes glittered with amusement. "Or maybe I should give you to Ilyn Payne, would you like him better?"

Her heart lurched. "Please, Your Grace," she begged. "If you ever loved me even a little bit, don't make me marry your - "

" - uncle?" Tyrion Lannister stepped through the doors of the sept. "Your Grace," he said to Joffrey. "Grant me a moment alone with Lady Sansa, if you would be so kind?"

The king was about to refuse, but his mother gave him a sharp look. They drew off a few feet.

Even mentioning Cersei can curb Joff

Quote

Ser Boros turned a dark shade of red. "The queen will hear of this!"

"No doubt she will. And why wait? Joffrey, shall we send for your mother? "

The king flushed.

"Nothing to say, Your Grace?" his uncle went on.

Really Joffs not that hard to manipulate

Quote

"Your Grace," he said, "shall I summon a new challenger for Brune, or proceed with the next tilt?"

"Neither. These are gnats, not knights. I'd have them all put to death, only it's my name day

The rest of your post I agree with

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