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mormont

UK Politics: Time Marches On

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I imagine there is a decent chance the ERG will finally cave and vote for the May deal, because the alternative is staring into the abyss of an indefinite delay. Though if they think they will win another referendum and guarantee Brexit come hell or high water they may continue to vote. But then Labour may fracture and enough of them may vote for the May deal to negate the ERG.

Even if the ERG vote for Mays deal (which I doubt will come back a 3rd time anyway) it wouldn't matter because Labour have consistently voted against it every time, to a man. 

There is talk of a push for indicative votes on what there might be a hunger for, more than likely the softer form of Brexit that Labour have talked about, in riddles.. (hint, there is no such thing as Soft Brexit, you stay in the Customs Union and single market and you didn't do Brexit) 

Tusk has also said he is keen to extend the deadline, so it will probably go that way. 
 

Edited by Heartofice

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To me a second referendum is looking more likely now, I don’t know what the polls are looking like if there were one but surely remain must win it, after the complete incompetence of the withdrawal.

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27 minutes ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

To me a second referendum is looking more likely now, I don’t know what the polls are looking like if there were one but surely remain must win it, after the complete incompetence of the withdrawal.

The British people elected that clown show to parliament. And they voted for this mess in the first place. Can you put your faith in them to make the wise choice?

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31 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Even if the ERG vote for Mays deal (which I doubt will come back a 3rd time anyway) it wouldn't matter because Labour have consistently voted against it every time, to a man. 

Except for the ones that voted for it. 

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the glorious Eddie Mair V Liz Truss yesterday

Eddie: “What about people who have changed their minds on Brexit?” 
Liz Truss: “I don’t think people have changed their minds” 
Eddie: “You have” 
Liz Truss: “I have, thats true…”
 

If May manages to squeak her deal through on the 3rd or 4th attempt that worries me
Not because they can keep voting on the same thing but the people can never vote again
But because  it really doesn't bode well for the next few years. Any deal that has been overwhelmingly defeated more than once, then begrudgingly won by threats and arm twisting is a terrible way to begin the next and more difficult phase of brexit. It is not a good basis for this country to move on. 

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3 minutes ago, mormont said:

Except for the ones that voted for it. 

Sorry no, your right, 3 people from labour voted for it the second time.

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2 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

If May manages to squeak her deal through on the 3rd or 4th attempt that worries me
Not because they can keep voting on the same thing but the people can never vote again
But because  it really doesn't bode well for the next few years. Any deal that has been overwhelmingly defeated more than once, then begrudgingly won by threats and arm twisting is a terrible way to begin the next and more difficult phase of brexit. It is not a good basis for this country to move on

Agreed. If this goes through, it will be a very Pyrrhic victory. We'll be in a transitional period under an agreement that nobody really agrees with. On top of that, May will go and we'll have a brisk bout of infighting over the Tory leadership accompanied by more demands from Labour for a General Election and the possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum (not to mention the continued lack of government in NI). And amidst all that, we'll have less than two years to negotiate a new relationship with the EU. It's hardly going to be a relief from the chaos. 

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11 minutes ago, mormont said:

Agreed. If this goes through, it will be a very Pyrrhic victory. We'll be in a transitional period under an agreement that nobody really agrees with. On top of that, May will go and we'll have a brisk bout of infighting over the Tory leadership accompanied by more demands from Labour for a General Election and the possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum (not to mention the continued lack of government in NI). And amidst all that, we'll have less than two years to negotiate a new relationship with the EU. It's hardly going to be a relief from the chaos. 

Indeed, if she manages to squeak her deal through it will be just more chaos as it won't hold, it will break down and usher in more and more chaos. A deal going through like that, with those voting for it hating it and those voting against hating those who voted for.....it will destroy parliament and probably the country 

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2 hours ago, DaveSumm said:

So my understanding is we’re headed toward a cliff edge at 100mph, and we’ve ruled out either slowing down, stopping, or falling off the cliff? It looks to me like May’s deal will be defeated again, so will it come down to a short extension, with May then having the choice between No Deal or referendum? And no deal was of course ruled out? Was her talk last night of ‘facing the consequences’ and not getting Brexit at all softening up for a referendum? Is that her choice alone or does that get put before parliament? Will it not then become part of a long list of things we’ve ‘ruled out’?

We've also ruled out crossing the bridge that links one cliff to the  other.

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1 hour ago, SeanF said:

We've also ruled out crossing the bridge that links one cliff to the  other.

So basically weve just left ourselves with the Wile E Coyote route of running off the cliff and hovering momentarily before crashing horrifically to the ground below?

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15 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

So basically weve just left ourselves with the Wile E Coyote route of running off the cliff and hovering momentarily before crashing horrifically to the ground below?

I think that MPs will eventually decide something, but I don't know yet what that something is.

We're still at the stage where they are very clear what they don't like, but not at all clear what they want.

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Posted (edited)

There is an amendment vote today for a second referendum which will likely fail but it will be interesting to see the numbers, and if both the Tories and Labour vote to oppose it and how many in both parties rebel.

With No Deal ruled out (even if by an insanely tiny amount), the remaining options are collapsing towards Leave with a Deal, Unilateral Withdrawal of Article 50 or a 2nd Referendum. With Leave with a Deal looking impossible, you either unilaterally withdraw Article 50 and basically ignore the referendum result, or you go for a second vote. What the basis of the second vote will be is unclear, but presumably No Deal will not be part of it following yesterday's vote.

Edited by Werthead

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19 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There is an amendment vote today for a second referendum which will likely fail but it will be interesting to see the numbers, and if both the Tories and Labour vote to oppose it and how many in both parties rebel.

With No Deal ruled out (even if by an insanely tiny amount), the remaining options are collapsing towards Leave with a Deal, Unilateral Withdrawal of Article 50 or a 2nd Referendum. With Leave with a Deal looking impossible, you either unilaterally withdraw Article 50 and basically ignore the referendum result, or you go for a second vote. What the basis of the second vote will be is unclear, but presumably No Deal will not be part of it following yesterday's vote.

Could May wrangle a few more MPs and try again though? The vote was 312-308, but that only adds up to 620 votes cast; and I thought there were 650 MPs? I know Sinn Fein doesn't take their seats, but that's only like 7 seats, plus there's the Speaker who doesn't vote. Are there 22 vacancies right now or could May find some folks who didn't vote yesterday and get them to vote her way on a redo?

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35 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There is an amendment vote today for a second referendum which will likely fail but it will be interesting to see the numbers, and if both the Tories and Labour vote to oppose it and how many in both parties rebel.

With No Deal ruled out (even if by an insanely tiny amount), the remaining options are collapsing towards Leave with a Deal, Unilateral Withdrawal of Article 50 or a 2nd Referendum. With Leave with a Deal looking impossible, you either unilaterally withdraw Article 50 and basically ignore the referendum result, or you go for a second vote. What the basis of the second vote will be is unclear, but presumably No Deal will not be part of it following yesterday's vote.

I still don’t fully understand which vote was which, but when I read that ‘rule out no deal’ won by 4 votes ... 4? That’s how narrowly we avoided voluntarily becoming the only country in the world with zero trade deals? WTAF? 

Also I’m worried that in a weird way ruling it out makes a second referendum impossible, as you say, what would the vote be on? Remain, or some deal that literally doesn’t exist? What sort of question is that?

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Fez said:

Could May wrangle a few more MPs and try again though? The vote was 312-308, but that only adds up to 620 votes cast; and I thought there were 650 MPs? I know Sinn Fein doesn't take their seats, but that's only like 7 seats, plus there's the Speaker who doesn't vote. Are there 22 vacancies right now or could May find some folks who didn't vote yesterday and get them to vote her way on a redo?

That was the vote to rule out No Deal, which passed by 4 votes (!). The vote to reject May's deal was by a majority of 149, which seems a much more insurmountable hill to climb.

Some fun stats: May has had more resignations in less than 3 years than Thatcher had in 12, almost as many as Blair/Brown in 10 (bearing in mind that some of those came from one issue, Iraq) and almost twice as many as Cameron in 6 years.

Edited by Werthead

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29 minutes ago, Fez said:

Could May wrangle a few more MPs and try again though?

My understanding is that unless something changes in the WA, she will not be permitted to put it before the House again.

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13 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

That’s how narrowly we avoided voluntarily becoming the only country in the world with zero trade deals? WTAF? 

Hey, we wouldn't have zero trade deals.

We'd have five. Including one with the Faroe Islands. 

29 minutes ago, Fez said:

Could May wrangle a few more MPs and try again though? The vote was 312-308, but that only adds up to 620 votes cast; and I thought there were 650 MPs?

A number of MPs abstained, including some government ministers. Those ministers are now refusing to resign, claiming that abstaining is not the same as opposing the government, and the government does not appear to be keen to pressure them to resign.

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24 minutes ago, mormont said:

A number of MPs abstained, including some government ministers. Those ministers are now refusing to resign, claiming that abstaining is not the same as opposing the government, and the government does not appear to be keen to pressure them to resign.

The next vote will be on whether to change the British national anthem to that Benny Hill theme tune, or possibly a circus one.

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22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The next vote will be on whether to change the British national anthem to that Benny Hill theme tune, or possibly a circus one.

I vote for Liberty Bell - just because we need something to make us smile.

 

I guess we're trying for the extension.

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