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Fragile Bird

Stayin' Alive - Covid-19 #10

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5 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

If there was ever proof needed that people need to filter their news, 600 people have died in Iran from consuming dodgy alcohol that they thought would help them, with another 3000 still in trouble. 

The problem in Iran being that there are no trustworthy news as their own leaders are pushing conspiracy theories and lies. And the situation in Iran is bad, really bad from what I'm hearing from my father in law. No one believes the official figures or sources. So in their desperation people believe whatever it is they want to hear and nothing else. The regime has well and truly poisoned the well.

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3 hours ago, Isis said:

I'm going to guess that you are talking about Mefloquine (trade name Larium). Again, not the same drug as chloroquine.

I am going by what I remember from newspaper reports from over 20 years ago. The Canadian Forces members were required to take a cocktail of drugs for diseases such as malaria, and many complained about the side effects. They were basically told to shut up and follow orders, even after there was evidence of psychotic behaviour. It may have been Mefloquine.

I have a problem with my memory in that I have close to total recall but not close enough. I really should use the internet to fact check more, especially as I get older. I will try to do better in the future.

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19 minutes ago, maarsen said:

That small circular mark is a smallpox vaccination scar. I have one too. In fact it was a plot point in Diana Gabaldon's Outlander novel. In Canada, a TB vaccine is usually a scratch. I distinctly remember getting it as a child.

I'm not old enough for smallpox.  My BCG left a small slightly raised round scar.  It's very normal.

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1 minute ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I'm not old enough for smallpox.  My BCG left a small slightly raised round scar.  It's very normal.

same here, I didn’t get the smallpox vaccine and I have the scar. The smallpox scar is much bigger (my parents have those)

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9 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I have a problem with my memory in that I have close to total recall but not close enough.

I can't watch The Voice because i have perfect pitch, and my dick is so big I can't ride a bicycle. 

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2 hours ago, Rorshach said:

Sounds a lot like Lariam, yeah. 

Been living in Ethiopia for 8 years, my sister (an MD) has been living around the continent for longer. I seem to recall that somewhere around 1/5 to 1/4 get strong psychological side effects from it, but if you don't, it's the best prophylactic out there.

Giving it to the US army was like a massive-scale study in psychological side effects. In the UK it is no longer prescribed for malaria prophylaxis unless you have had it before and tolerated it well. I work in the UK malaria reference lab. I have colleagues with horror stories about Larium. 

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

If there was ever proof needed that people need to filter their news, 600 people have died in Iran from consuming dodgy alcohol that they thought would help them, with another 3000 still in trouble. 

Yeah, this came up on Pub Med about 10 days ago and when I did a search to confirm it had been in the NY times already at that point. That moment remains saddest, most bleak and hopeless I have felt about anything that happened since this started.

ETA: some people were selling methanol to others as a 'cure', i.e. making a few quid off of something that is lethal (knowing it was poisonous but pretending that it was ethanol, not methanol) - at a time when thousands of people are dying from a respiratory virus. I just think it's the most disgusting and repulsive thing I have heard in a long time. 

Edited by Isis

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8 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

The UK (well, England certainly, I’m not certain on the rest of the country) still gave the BCG to schoolchildren as late as the mid-2000’s. It was stopped i think the year I would have received it - i know my friend in the school year above got it. i remember fairly well because whenever a year group got it the boys would go around punching people in the arm where they had just had the injection because that was just hilarious. Children are the worst.

Yep, this was in the U.K. so not assuming tin-foilers are just Americans at all. 

I got the BCG at school, it was 2001 and I was 13, I remember there was all this talk about how bad it was going to be. The actual injection wasn’t that bad but it scabbing over and leaving a scar on my left upper arm wasn’t very nice.

I remember reading fairly recently (certainly the last couple of years) that TB has made a bit of a comeback and is harder to treat because it is resistant to some antibiotics now, I’m not sure if being immunised against it nearly 20 years ago would protect you from the newer strains or not.

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3 minutes ago, Jen'ari said:

I remember reading fairly recently (certainly the last couple of years) that TB has made a bit of a comeback and is harder to treat because it is resistant to some antibiotics now, I’m not sure if being immunised against it nearly 20 years ago would protect you from the newer strains or not.

Yes, it would. If you don't get infected then it won't matter (to you) that the circulating strains are MDR or XDR. Because you won't need the treatment anyway. It only matters to the susceptible.

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1 hour ago, Isis said:

...I have colleagues with horror stories about Larium...

Good old Larium - nothing like excessively fast breathing, chronic constipation and yellowing skin to really enhance your trips to Asia.

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1 hour ago, Isis said:

Yes, it would. If you don't get infected then it won't matter (to you) that the circulating strains are MDR or XDR. Because you won't need the treatment anyway. It only matters to the susceptible.

Thanks for clearing that up, like I say it’s not something I know much about, despite the scar on my arm and it not being pleasant at the time it’s a shot I’d still rather have had than not.

Is the body capable of fighting off TB on its own?, from the little I know about it, I’d always assumed it was fatal, but it killed people off in a very long and slow way pre 20th Century.

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The (german) federal institute for research on animal health (FLI) has published their first results with SARS-CoV-2:

Dogs, pigs and chicken cannot be infected, but cats and ferrets can.

Infected ferrets can also infect other ferrets. With that result there is now a potential animal model (ferrets are wellknown in flu research) for the research on drugs and vaccines.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Moving question to this thread. @ants or whomever else might have an idea as to the answer, please feel free to reply.

Quote

17 hours ago, ants said:

We flagged yesterday that the number of tests were now being recorded at worldometers. Today we look at the number of tests per case. The intent here is to see which nations are finding positive cases most regularly or easily. There are 131 nations who have had test numbers recorded by worldometer.

The countries who are not getting great rewards for their efforts are; in 10th place Azerbaijan with 68 tests per positive case; 9th PNG who have conducted 72 tests to record their 1 case; 8th Taiwan 102t/c; 7th Hong Kong 108t/c; 6th New Caledonia 110t/c; 5th United Arab Emirates 122t/c; 4th Russia 129t/c; 3rd Botswana 161t/c; 2nd Nepal 169t/c. In first place is Vietnam, having conducted 88551 tests, and registered 241 positive cases. Australia sits in 17th position with 52 tests/case.

The countries who are finding diamonds everywhere they dig (and just focussing on the big players) are; Italy conducting 5.4 tests for every positive case; USA 5.2t/c; Brazil 4.9t/c; Netherlands 4.2t/c; UK 4.1t/c; Belgium 3.6t/c; Iran 3.2t/c; Spain 2.7t/c. Taking the prize as the best at identifying a COVID case of all countries is San Marino with 2.2 tests conducted before finding a positive case. I make note of that, because the 2nd best in the world is France with 2.4t/c. A strong indicator that France, who is already 6th overall with 92839 total cases, may indeed have more cases just waiting to be tested.

Sorry to derail the thread temporarily, but this is along the lines of something I've been wondering about lately, which is: how much of the testing being done is the same person being tested more than once? As in, presumably, every positive case that has a non-fatal outcome will involve at least 2 tests: the test confirming a positive case, and then at least one subsequent test confirming that the patient is no longer shedding the virus upon resolution of symptoms. 

But, I've also seen numerous interviews with people who've tested positive mentioning that even after resolution of symptoms, they often need multiple tests to ensure they're no longer shedding the virus. So is there any sort of modeling that suggests what percentage of tests involve repeat testing of the same individual?

Anyone have an idea?

Edited by The Great Unwashed

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Posted (edited)

@ pg5 , They wanted nothing to do with that jellyfish lol, smart kitty.

Edited by DireWolfSpirit

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@Great Unwashed, surely the operative word would be cases?

As in a positive case should only count as one, as in one case. Each case could result in more than one test. 

But it's a good question, who knows the competence of the tabulating involved.

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1 minute ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

@Great Unwashed, surely the operative word would be cases?

As in a positive case should only count as one, as in one case. Each case could result in more than one test. 

But it's a good question, who knows the competence of the tabulating involved.

As far as I can tell, the results being reported aren't apples to apples. The results appear to be tabulating and reporting total positive cases, while also tabulating and reporting total negative tests. These are two different data sets.

Or, maybe I've been misunderstanding the data this whole time. That's certainly possible as well.

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This will be an interesting one to look at for the data junkies -- EuroMOMO (European MOnitoring of excess MOrtality for public health action) keeps track of all-causes mortality in 24 European countries, with statistics provided by national agencies. They have their week 13 update up, covering March 23rd to March 29. The chart features a baseline for those countries and then shows excess peaks that happen from season to season, including broken down by age groups. For example, on the front page you'll see the notable excess death peaks at the start and end of 2017 corresponding to a particularly bad flu season. 

There are also per-country graphs, with the option to break them down by age group. Belgium, France, Italy, and Spain, as well as the UK (England), all show at this point a bit of excess motaliy, whereas it seems like NI actually has a dip below the baseline as does Wales, presumably because of locking down (is it UK wide or England wide?) without having many people actually infected in those areas. 

I assume some of this data is behind the real deaths and will be updated next week, so the chart may be a bit different.

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NY had a record number of covid19 deaths in the last 24 hours (over 700), but the rate of hospitalization is decreasing (only a 4% increase in hospitalizations compared to the 20% daily increases we'd had last week).  

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7 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

On the bright side of things it appears that cholesterol helps fight infection, and the Chinese are researching whether people with higher levels of cholesterol handled Covid-19 better than other people.

Do you have a link to that? I can't find anything about it on Google News. And are we talking HDL, LDL, triglycerides, or all three?

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