Covid-19 #17: Covid Is For Ever

[DireWolfSpirit]

The only reason I noted it was that 10 of the lowest 11 states in cases per million are all mountain states. 

As we know the cases per million stat makes population size a non factor, doesn't matter if the state has 2 million or 20 million it just measures how many cases PER million.

And 10 of the best 11 performing states in cases per million all happen to be mountainous states so I start to wonder about how that factors out is all?

Here are the 11 states with the lowest cases per million that I'm referring to.

41. Washington

42. Colorado

43. Alaska

44. Montana

45.Wyoming

46. Oregon

47. Hawaii

48.W.Virginia

49. New Hampshire

50. Maine

51. Vermont

There are 51 because the site has a slot for D.C.

The order is inverse meaning 51.Vermont would be the state with the lowest case per million then 50, 49, 48, etc.

Anyways I find it somewhat curious that those are all mountainous states, the only exception being the island state of Hawaii and its even mountainous to a flatlander midwesterner like me lol.

[rotting sea cow]

12 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I've noticed mountainous terrain is also useful for keeping the spread lower. In the U.S. it's apparent in the lower(cases) dozen states, most are the mountain states. I wonder how much this benefits Pakistan , I'm sure the cases are lowest in and around those alpine regions.

There have been speculations that high altitude might help against transmission and development of the disease. However, data from latinoamerica where you can find several high altitude cities doesn't support (at least at first glance) this hypothesis. For example, currently the Quito's outbreak (2850m) is looking worst than the sea level Guayaquil. La Paz (3640m) outbreak doesn't look good either. Same with Bogota's (2650m), Mexico's City (2200m), etc

[rotting sea cow]

Regarding India and Pakistan. Despite the huge number of cases they are reporting, they still have a very long way to go before matching Spain, France or US in the severity of their outbreaks. For example India is still ranked behind Norway in the number of deaths/million and Pakistan much further behind.

Nevertheless, I really like the veil speculation! I think it's something to look at.

[Crixus]

I'm from Pakistan - born and bred. I live and work in Dubai now, but went home for 2 months in early July. Just got back now. 

Some of the speculation on here about Pakistan is funny/mildly annoying - 'they're lying' for instance. On that scale, many countries are 'lying' i.e. under testing, under-reporting etc. The thing is, Pakistan isn't nearly as backward or third world as you lot may imagine. It also isn't as though there are 00s dying daily right now, but suddenly going unreported where a month ago, they were being reported dutifully.

Hospitals were packed and there was a major crisis through May to early July - and being reported widely in local news and on social. However, it is a fact that hospitals, which were previously overwhelmed and facing severe shortages of oxygen, beds etc. are now not even half as full. Death rates have also fallen significantly - and that's an indicator you can compare with the bestest country in the world - the USA - with the bestest resources and people ever. Testing hasn't fallen dramatically either; it's pretty much the same as was happening in April/May - woefully low due to inadequate resources, but not a decline from earlier testing #s. 

Doctors are quite puzzled, and cite possible reasons like the young population, exposure to malaria, typhoid, the BCG vaccine, conservative societies where people don't usually gather in large crowds (e.g. bars) - though we've had 2 Eids  thus far. Still, while this may mean family gatherings, it isn't the same as bars, concerts and other such activity. No one really knows, but when I was there (in an admittedly better off neighbourhood) I saw all shops refusing entry without masks and most people wearing these, and observing distancing. Shops were closing at 6 pm till last week and restaurants only opened about 10 days ago. 

At the end this is mostly speculation, of course. An article on it as here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-youthful-conservative-pakistan-is-a-coronavirus-bright-spot-11596297600

Finally, apologies for the sarcasm in this post. It's just a bit galling (and wearily familiar) to read such stuff about PK. I do realise there was no malicious intent, and that most of you are neutral and genuinely curious. FWIW, I read the posts here regularly and find you lot very mature, balanced and fun

 

 

 

[Zorral]

11 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The only reason I noted it was that 10 of the lowest 11 states in cases per million are all mountain states. 

As we know the cases per million stat makes population size a non factor, doesn't matter if the state has 2 million or 20 million it just measures how many cases PER million.

And 10 of the best 11 performing states in cases per million all happen to be mountainous states so I start to wonder about how that factors out is all?

Here are the 11 states with the lowest cases per million that I'm referring to.

41. Washington

42. Colorado

43. Alaska

44. Montana

45.Wyoming

46. Oregon

47. Hawaii

48.W.Virginia

49. New Hampshire

50. Maine

51. Vermont

There are 51 because the site has a slot for D.C.

The order is inverse meaning 51.Vermont would be the state with the lowest case per million then 50, 49, 48, etc.

Anyways I find it somewhat curious that those are all mountainous states, the only exception being the island state of Hawaii and its even mountainous to a flatlander midwesterner like me lol.

This is Maine where we are among  trees and mountains, and the nearest city of 70 miles away.  And everybody is WHITE.  How could this possibly be the occasion of a superspreader Covid-19 event, out of which people died? And our entire community is under National Guard enforced quarantine and even the Inn where we had our beautiful wedding with 75 guests and no masks is going broke.  We have to remove our FB and Instagram wedding album because everybody is mad at us.  How could we have KNOWN?  (How could the INN have KNOWN?)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/30/coronavirus-millinocket-wedding-outbreak/?

Cases are rising currently in just about every one of those states you list. Additionally, for instance,  Hawai'i has had a very hard time of it, until it quarantined itself against tourists.

~~~~

Crixtus -- thank you for that update on Pakistan, and particularly for reminding us that the current USA official policy of the federal CDC is to stop testing and hide, cook and disappear numbers.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Crixus said:

I'm from Pakistan - born and bred. I live and work in Dubai now, but went home for 2 months in early July. Just got back now. 

Some of the speculation on here about Pakistan is funny/mildly annoying - 'they're lying' for instance. On that scale, many countries are 'lying' i.e. under testing, under-reporting etc. The thing is, Pakistan isn't nearly as backward or third world as you lot may imagine.

<snipped for length>

Doctors are quite puzzled, and cite possible reasons ....

At the end this is mostly speculation, of course. An article on it as here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-youthful-conservative-pakistan-is-a-coronavirus-bright-spot-11596297600

Finally, apologies for the sarcasm in this post. It's just a bit galling (and wearily familiar) to read such stuff about PK. I do realise there was no malicious intent, and that most of you are neutral and genuinely curious. FWIW, I read the posts here regularly and find you lot very mature, balanced and fun

 

 

 

Thanks, that makes a lot more sense than altitude. 
 

I feel like this is directed at me since I brought it up. It’s because I regularly look at the Worldometer numbers and some are rather astonishing, especially when you look at India and Iran. I think Iran has been attacked most of all, that 21,500 deaths is a huge lie, blah blah blah. That’s mostly coming from the Americans.

I don’t think anyone has suggested Pakistan is backwards. It’s pretty well known that in China lower level officials tried to cover up what was going on, and frankly speaking, don’t we all at times think that something similar is going on in some US states? I could have said Bangladesh, another country in the top 5 in Asia, but India and Pakistan are usually compared to each other.

And no, I don’t think of Pakistan as backwards, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. I think of Pakistan as a country a fraction the size of Canada with 221.5 M people versus 37.5 M people, with almost 300 k cases versus 128 k, and 6,300 deaths versus 9,100. That’s at the root of my  skepticism. I find myself always comparing other countries to Canada. Canada is 1,154% larger than Pakistan. Pakistan has a population density of 287 per sq. km. Canada has a population density of 4 per sq. km. 
 

Turkey is considered to be another huge success story, with both similar case numbers and similar deaths as Pakistan, almost 270 k cases and 6,300 deaths. But, they only have 84.5 M people.

In the end, it’s probably foolish to try to make sense of numbers at this stage of the pandemic, but if Pakistan is doing so well people should try to understand why. While testing is very low in Pakistan, 11,829 per M (wow, 83,188 in Turkey) deaths would tell the real story, right? And there we are, back to that low death number.

Actually, South Korea, Japan and Greece are the countries to study.

[Zorral]

India's death rate is the third highest in world, after #1 WINNINGUSAYAY! and Brasil.

 

[Fragile Bird]

16 minutes ago, Zorral said:

India's death rate is the third highest in world, after #1 WINNINGUSAYAY! and Brasil.

 

I fear that India will be No. 1 in 6 months, wait, no, probably in 3 months. Too late to help Trump in the election! But he’ll point to India with a big, fat wagging finger (or is that a short, fat, wagging finger?). Watch for restrictions on India soon!

[Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I think of Pakistan as a country a fraction the size of Canada with 221.5 M people versus 37.5 M people, with almost 300 k cases versus 128 k, and 6,300 deaths versus 9,100. That’s at the root of my  skepticism. I find myself always comparing other countries to Canada. Canada is 1,154% larger than Pakistan. Pakistan has a population density of 287 per sq. km. Canada has a population density of 4 per sq. km. 

I'd like to see the excess deaths numbers for Pakistan. I think that would be a more reliable indicator of the true impact of the pandemic. In South Africa we have a similar situation too i.e. a high number of confirmed cases (625,000) but a relatively low confirmed death toll (14,028) and limited testing capacity. Our medical research council has been tracking excess deaths and there is quite a large discrepancy between confirmed Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths from natural causes (39,087 as of 24 August). 

Thankfully though we seem to have past our peak without our healthcare system collapsing. Infection rates and hospital admissions have been trending downwards since the last week of July. 

[Zorral]

https://www.digitaltariq.com/many-of-north-dakotas-public-schools-wont-alert-public-to-covid-19-cases/

That's the way we do it in Our State!

https://www.thedickinsonpress.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6640914-North-Dakotas-COVID-19-positive-rate-rising-as-state-reports-low-testing-day

 

 

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

Dr. Scott Atlas, a real doctor (a radiologist), was a Fox comentator who always backed up everything Trump said about Covid-19, so Trump hired him and added him to the coronavirus task force. Kids need to go back to school, people need to go back to work, the US has to have herd immunity because look how well it's worked in Sweden!

If 60% to 80% of the US was allowed to be infected, more than 200 M will get the virus and maybe 2 M people will die. Maybe fewer than 2 M, because so many will be young, but maybe this will expose more older people to the virus, because they don't live in isolation, they live with family and they live in homes where those younger people work.

But, the problem is, as people have said here, Sweden doesn't have herd immunity, and has one of the highest death rates in the world, it's 574 versus the US number of 566 per million with less than half the cases per million. Maybe we can ignore that statistic because the US has tested more, but on the other hand Sweden hasn't had any deaths the last couple of days.

I guess this is one way to reduce the problem of running out of money to pay Social Security, kill off the older people.

eta: what I meant to say was Atlas is apparently a big pusher of the "herd immunity" argumment.

[williamjm]

6 hours ago, Crixus said:

Hospitals were packed and there was a major crisis through May to early July - and being reported widely in local news and on social. However, it is a fact that hospitals, which were previously overwhelmed and facing severe shortages of oxygen, beds etc. are now not even half as full. Death rates have also fallen significantly - and that's an indicator you can compare with the bestest country in the world - the USA - with the bestest resources and people ever. Testing hasn't fallen dramatically either; it's pretty much the same as was happening in April/May - woefully low due to inadequate resources, but not a decline from earlier testing #s. 

Doctors are quite puzzled, and cite possible reasons like the young population, exposure to malaria, typhoid, the BCG vaccine, conservative societies where people don't usually gather in large crowds (e.g. bars) - though we've had 2 Eids  thus far. Still, while this may mean family gatherings, it isn't the same as bars, concerts and other such activity. No one really knows, but when I was there (in an admittedly better off neighbourhood) I saw all shops refusing entry without masks and most people wearing these, and observing distancing. Shops were closing at 6 pm till last week and restaurants only opened about 10 days ago.

Thanks for providing some local information. It's good that things seem to be going relatively well, hopefully someone can figure out the reasons behind it so other countries could potentially apply some of the same lessons.

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I fear that India will be No. 1 in 6 months, wait, no, probably in 3 months. Too late to help Trump in the election! But he’ll point to India with a big, fat wagging finger (or is that a short, fat, wagging finger?). Watch for restrictions on India soon!

To be fair to India they are currently 83rd in the world when you rank countries by deaths per capita (47 per million compared to 500+ in the US and some European and South American countries) so if they do overtake the US it will be due to their vast population.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

Thanks for providing some local information. It's good that things seem to be going relatively well, hopefully someone can figure out the reasons behind it so other countries could potentially apply some of the same lessons.

To be fair to India they are currently 83rd in the world when you rank countries by deaths per capita (47 per million compared to 500+ in the US and some European and South American countries) so if they do overtake the US it will be due to their vast population.

Normal people know that, but according to the Donald they have so many cases only because the US is testing so much and they have the lowest death rate in the world as well.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, williamjm said:

To be fair to India they are currently 83rd in the world when you rank countries by deaths per capita (47 per million compared to 500+ in the US and some European and South American countries) so if they do overtake the US it will be due to their vast population.

Much like with Brazil, I have little faith that India can accurately count it's cases. There are simply too many people with huge clustered population centers. I'm not trying to imply anything nefarious, to be clear, but I just don't know how they could actually do it. 

[Clueless Northman]

20 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Here are the 11 states with the lowest cases per million that I'm referring to.

41. Washington

42. Colorado

43. Alaska

44. Montana

45.Wyoming

46. Oregon

47. Hawaii

48.W.Virginia

49. New Hampshire

50. Maine

51. Vermont

Hawaii as an island is a special case. Like NZ, it can pretty much self-isolate if needed. Oregon and Washington already were hit and the 1st wave is over. Still, mostly, I'd say low density of people and few very large urban areas help a lot.

And there is some kind of seasonal side-effect. In colder areas, people spend way more time outside during Summer, so lower spread, lower viral load (virus doesn't like the outdoor that much overall). On the other hand, when Summer came to Florida, Texas and S. California, places where it's so hot people gather inside, they got hit badly.

That might be one of the reasons why India and Pakistan aren't hit as much: people are used to the heat and probably don't spend all their summer stuck inside with AC; I suppose they still spend time outside more than your average Westerner facing similar heat. Would be glad to know if I speak out of my mind about how people behave and spend their days in these countries.

[karaddin]

13 hours ago, Crixus said:

Doctors are quite puzzled, and cite possible reasons like the young population, exposure to malaria, typhoid, the BCG vaccine, conservative societies where people don't usually gather in large crowds (e.g. bars)...

This just continues to be a really weird and complicated virus. Its going to be studied for a long time after this initial pandemic is over. We just really don't have the answers for so much of it at the moment.

[rotting sea cow]

13 hours ago, Zorral said:

India's death rate is the third highest in world, after #1 WINNINGUSAYAY! and Brasil.

 

Wrong. India's death rate is currently at the 84th position according to the worldmeter between Estonia and Paraguay. Pakistan is at the 105th.

In total deaths India is at the top 3 but India is country with a huge population.

[Fragile Bird]

Oh look, Florida is firing Quest Diagnostics, one of the biggest testing labs in the US, because they showed up with 75,000 late test results. 7569 new cases were reported yesterday and 187 new deaths.

Quest did more than 1.4 M tests in Florida. They are explaining the delay by saying there was a "technical issue" related to those tests.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

The vaccine news emerging is very exciting. If 100 million people can be vaccinated by the end of the year, that will be a huge step forward. I just hope there is good cooperation to prioritise vaccinating the most vulnerable people and not first come first serve, or who is willing to pay the most.

As recently as 2 days ago we had some doofus professor (medical, but not in the immunology field) still saying our current elimination policy is bad because the mumps vaccine took 4 years, so this one will be at least that far away, This despite these 3 vaccine have been in phase 3 clinical trials since June / July with 10s of thousands of doses administered. Even if it's not October, it is almost certain it will be soon after.

[Zorral]

I'm not getting this.  I know people who came close to death when Gerald Ford rolled out an inadequately tested vaccine for Swine Flu in 1976, including mass vaccination on college campuses.  Like the orange shoggoth, he too did this, thinking it would get him elected POTUS.

It's beyond me why ANYONE would think anything orange shoggoth says or does regarding the pandemic will be positive, when it has been demonstrably proven over and over, every time, that anything he does makes it worse and the pandemic ever further away from being contained.

So, a huge gift to the anti-vaxxers.  Total lose-lose for us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-trump.html?

Written by Rick Perlstein, the historian of the rise of Nixon, Reagan, etc., and the crazy right wing gop politics and politicians who have done all this to us.