DMC Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, Fez said: This is where I'm at too. And I'm not entirely sure it was unintentional. I'd be inclined to agree except the AP call puts a wrench in the conspiracy theory. Quite doubtful they were in on it. The common denominator is both AP and FNC left the NEP to conduct their own exit polls (or in the AP's case a joint project with NORC to replace a traditional exit poll). 10 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: The percentage of white women who voted for T has gone from 53% in 2016 to 55%. Wtf?! (Source: Crooked media) - so much for 'suburban' women abandoning him in droves... Speaking of exit polls, this is based on the Edison exit poll. This is very preliminary - plus exit polls in general are not always accurate, plus this cycle's was especially suspect as it required a change in methodology. All that being said, demographical changes since 2016 can be seen here. The most surprising thing about Trump gaining with white women is he gained among college educated white women - going from Clinton +7 to Trump +1 - and lost ground among white women no degree - Trump +27 in 2016 to Trump +21 in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: I'd say they are the Nice Guy (not nice guy), but not quite as toxic or deranged as incels. This is probably a more precise analysis, but Nice Guy is a possible stop on the incel route. I kind of seized on @DanteGabriel's analogy as a commentary on the conversation being yesterday had about Democrats' messaging problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 OMG, the senate can even prevent cabinet picks?! They are so screwed. Also, good-bye to Sanders or Warren or Abrams in the WH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueMetis Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 As trump showed, "acting" positions can do a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: OMG, the senate can even prevent cabinet nominations?! They are so screwed. Also, good-bye to Sanders or Warren in the WH... They can, but I'm not sure they will. In some ways acting cabinet secretaries can act more politically than confirmed ones. Trump has preferred using acting cabinet secretaries for the past two years, and at this point it's a huge portion of his overall cabinet that was never confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: They can, but I'm not sure they will. In some ways acting cabinet secretaries can act more politically than confirmed ones. Trump has preferred using acting cabinet secretaries for the past two years, and at this point it's a huge portion of his overall cabinet that was never confirmed. Well, I hope Biden doesn't prefer the other route: nominating centrist/ conservative/ Wall Street candidates. His nostalgia for the bipartisanship of old (and not wanting to rock the boat that was before Trump) is hopefully tempered by realism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: OMG, the senate can even prevent cabinet picks?! They are so screwed. Also, good-bye to Sanders or Warren or Abrams in the WH... This is one area where certain GOP Senators like Romney and Murkowski could come in handy. They're unlikely to block qualified cabinet nominees without a legitimate reason/scandal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 And here comes the real danger. Note that there is no sign (yet) of legislatures doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, Mindwalker said: OMG, the senate can even prevent cabinet picks?! They are so screwed. Also, good-bye to Sanders or Warren or Abrams in the WH... Republicans would love Warren in the cabinet. She'll be deeply constrained by the courts, and we all know what special elections in MA can lead to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Killjoybear said: And here comes the real danger. Note that there is no sign (yet) of legislatures doing this. That would require a law change in the states in question. Of the contested states, only Arizona and Georgia have a Republican trifecta to ram such a change through (assuming they even wanted to). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said: That would require a law change in the states in question. Of the contested states, only Arizona and Georgia have a Republican trifecta to ram such a change through (assuming they even wanted to). WELL ITS A GOOD THING ARIZONA AND GEORGIA AREN'T PROBLEMATIC RIGHT NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, The Marquis de Leech said: That would require a law change in the states in question. Of the contested states, only Arizona and Georgia have a Republican trifecta to ram such a change through (assuming they even wanted to). It would come down to the courts. The constitution in question is clearly that "the manner" in which electors are chosen needs to be in place by election day; and in every state that was the winner of the popular vote in that state. Still a risk. But it's this kind of case where I think Gorsuch (and Roberts) would clearly rule against Republicans. Maybe Kavanaugh too; still not sure what his deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: And here comes the real danger. Note that there is no sign (yet) of legislatures doing this. That is why Biden winning by more than just one state is important. That type of conspiracy gets vastly harder the more numbers of people involved and the amount of trust required. If Biden does end up winning PA and AZ/NV, then the state legislators in AZ would be putting their careers (and possibly their lives) on the line for Trump and it would all fall apart if the legislators in PA don't do the same. Plus, what do they have to gain from this? Obviously the Trump family would benefit immensely, but the individual legislators? Just the satisfaction in having irrevocably broken America's democracy? And that's assuming such an effort were possible, as Fez and Leech mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, teej6 said: Agree with you and @The Great Unwashed on this. There are reports of Trump calling Murdoch after Arizona was called for Biden by Fox and yelling and Murdoch didn’t care. There might be something there. Murdoch backed Trump and Johnson because he wanted someone good for business who wasn't going to screw him over. Instead he's gotten two incompetent morons whose stupidity has offended even him. Murdoch is happy to drop Trump because he knows that Biden isn't going to rock the boat too much. His backing for Johnson was only because the alternatives in the UK were much worse for his business interests. Now they're gone, he's happy to feed Johnson to the wolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Killjoybear said: WELL ITS A GOOD THING ARIZONA AND GEORGIA AREN'T PROBLEMATIC RIGHT NOW Pennsylvania and Nevada (and Wisconsin and Michigan) don't have a Republican trifecta. Biden can win without Arizona and Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 All I can say is... thank god this election doesn't hinge on Florida (which does have a Republican trifecta). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 23 minutes ago, Maithanet said: They can, but I'm not sure they will. In some ways acting cabinet secretaries can act more politically than confirmed ones. Trump has preferred using acting cabinet secretaries for the past two years, and at this point it's a huge portion of his overall cabinet that was never confirmed. These tend to happen after he's fired someone though. Can you have acting secretaries as per the Vacancy Act if you haven't appointed anyone in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 For comparison's sake, here's the confirmation votes for Obama's Cabinet nominees. Other than Perez at Labor and Sebelius at HHS, the GOP didn't really take up a substantive fight on any of them. Richardson, Gregg, and Daschle all withdrew due to personal scandals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 minute ago, DMC said: For comparison's sake, here's the confirmation votes for Obama's Cabinet nominees. Other than Perez at Labor and Sebelius at HHS, the GOP didn't really take up a substantive fight on any of them. Richardson, Gregg, and Daschle all withdrew due to personal scandals. Man, that was like 12 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Just now, Killjoybear said: Man, that was like 12 years ago. It was 12 to 5 years ago - Lynch was 5 years ago. That's kind of the nature of trying to compare to last Democratic president, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.