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US Politics - Absence of Ballots


Ran

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1 hour ago, Relic said:

If he loses he's going to rage for weeks

Weeks?  Every time he gets on OANN or Fox or talks to the NYT, or whatever, he'll bitch and moan that it was stolen from him.  Every time. Even years from now.  Stoking conspiracy theories and not allowing the worst of his racist troll followers to crawl back under their rocks so we don't have to deal with them for a while...

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Georgia just added another set of votes, and again Biden won more than 2/3rds of them.  Trumps lead is just 9k with ~39k votes left.  Biden now needs just 62% of the remaining vote to take the lead. 

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

No it's not.  Most of the outstanding ballots in Georgia are from Democratic strongholds and that's obviously not the case in Arizona.  Trump is unlikely to maintain the margins he enjoyed to make up ground yesterday, especially with many of the remaining votes coming from Pima.

Again Trump’s kept to the rate he needs to win;https://github.com/alex/nyt-2020-election-scraper/blob/master/battleground-state-changes.txt

 

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1 hour ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

 On the New York Times electoral map you can click and see the map with the shift from 2016 represented. Most of Pennsylvania shifted blue, and, I assume, it will only shift further blue as more votes are counted. 

 

Thanks, I find that map extremely interesting.

Utah and southeastern Idaho showing the big red shift is to be expected with Mormons feeling they have to vote for Trump with Evan McMullin not being in the race.  I found Arkansas' complete red shift a bit surprising -- I guess even though she lost the state, there must have been many people in Arkansas who voted for Hillary Clinton as a "favorite daughter" four years ago. It's sad to see most of Iowa shifting red -- though it's quite surprising that the few places there that shifted blue are in the far western part of that state, which is usually the most conservative part. 

Colorado's complete blue shift would seem to really cement the idea that it is no longer really a "purple" state. Tennessee and North Carolina seem to have their urban and rural areas moving even further apart from each other -- though the several blue shifts in the Appalachian mountain areas of Tennessee and North Carolina make me wonder if more liberal Northern retirees are moving there as they've been doing to coastal South Carolina. 

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Georgia is looking not terribly relevant for Biden being declared the winner, since it'll definitely go to recount and they'll for sure need to wait until the military/provisional ballots are counted.  But I remain reasonably confident that Biden will take it. 

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4 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Trump took the votes he needed from Maricopa county. But not all the votes left to count are from Maricopa, 100,000 are from counties where Biden has stronger returns.

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2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Trump took the votes he needed from Maricopa county. But not all the votes left to count are from Maricopa, 100,000 are from counties where Biden has stronger returns.

There are still more in Maricopa and there is a Dem assumption that the remaining batches will be less Trump. We'll see.

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Georgia is looking not terribly relevant for Biden being declared the winner, since it'll definitely go to recount and they'll for sure need to wait until the military/provisional ballots are counted.  But I remain reasonably confident that Biden will take it. 

How much would someone have to win by to avoid that?

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Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

How much would someone have to win by to avoid that?

To avoid a recount?  I'm not sure, but it's pretty unlikely that either candidate gets there in Georgia.  That one is gonna take a while. 

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

To avoid a recount?  I'm not sure, but it's pretty unlikely that either candidate gets there in Georgia.  That one is gonna take a while. 

They'll still do what Wisconsin did and call him the "presumptive winner".

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14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Georgia is looking not terribly relevant for Biden being declared the winner, since it'll definitely go to recount and they'll for sure need to wait until the military/provisional ballots are counted.  But I remain reasonably confident that Biden will take it. 

This relies on the pressumption Biden picks up AZ, or PA.

 

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I don’t see anyone report it like this, but for me it’s easier to see the vote share of each candidate as a percentage of the total projected vote total, not as the current total. So for example, in PA, Trump has 50.1% of the current votes, but 47.4% of the projected total once all votes are counted. Biden has 46.1%. And there’s 7% still to be counted.

It’s much easier to see with these three numbers (47-46-7) how much Biden needs (to catch up 1% out of the remaining 7%). I should stress this is just an idea and I’ve punched some numbers from CNN into my calculator, and it ignores independents and such so it’s not accurate, but the gap is clearer to me in this format.

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