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US Politics - Absence of Ballots


Ran

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Pence is also very noticeably absent. He's probably refused to go out there any further while Trump is on his crying jag. The absurd kabuki theatre going on in Nevada -- with the first press conference featuring campaign staff or lawyers who refused to go on record -- is simply happening to assuage his hurt feelings, but the lawyers know they're not going anywhere and it's all just a show.

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1 minute ago, Ran said:

Pence is also very noticeably absent. He's probably refused to go out there any further while Trump is on his crying jag. The absurd kabuki theatre going on in Nevada -- with the first press conference featuring campaign staff or lawyers who refused to go on record -- is simply happening to assuage his hurt feelings, but the lawyers know they're not going anywhere and it's all just a show.

What's especially amusing to me is that Biden has been out there repeatedly. For all the 'he'll hide in a cave' bullshit this is really very different, and a lot of people are  seeing Biden now because they're so tuned in - and seeing  nothing from Trump. It's a good move for transitioning if that ends up happening. 

That said, it should make every single one of us nervous that multiple states are both coming down to the wire, are relying on late arriving votes, and are potentially vulnerable to various shenanigans. I'm very relieved to hear that (at least so far) no IT warfare was done and it looks like smooth sailing in that regard, and there was little disruption to polling places. But there IS disruption going on to the actual voting counting, and that's going to get worse as worse news comes in.

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Just now, Werthead said:

Couple of people on Twitter saying that Trump wants to address the nation but his legal advisors are advising in very forceful terms not to.

Nah, that's almost certainly bullshit. It's wishful thinking that he'd say something horrible, but he has no legal concern right now, and he's never had particularly any concern in that regard before. 

And that doesn't explain Pence's absence.

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Just now, Killjoybear said:

That said, it should make every single one of us nervous that multiple states are both coming down to the wire, are relying on late arriving votes, and are potentially vulnerable to various shenanigans. I'm very relieved to hear that (at least so far) no IT warfare was done and it looks like smooth sailing in that regard, and there was little disruption to polling places. But there IS disruption going on to the actual voting counting, and that's going to get worse as worse news comes in.

The BBC correspondent in Moscow is saying that the public opinion in Russia is that they thought Trump would normalise relations, remove sanctions and be an asset (so to speak), but he failed miserably to do all of those things, so the consensus is that they don't really give a shit. They see Biden as being more predictable and "normal" to deal with and Trump would be probably not do much with Russia in a second term.

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37 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Thanks, I find that map extremely interesting.

A bunch of safely called states still have a lot of absentee ballots to count, Utah being one of them. So it's hard to analyze that map too much yet. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final margin in Utah was closer to 15% rather than the current 20%.

But there are some interesting results already none-the-less. For instance, other than DC, it looks like California is now the bluest state in the country (it's still 0.1% behind Massachusetts, but lots more votes left to count in Cali). A lot of the blue states got even bluer, and maybe none more than Vermont which looks like it shifted 8 points further to the left.

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1 minute ago, Werthead said:

The BBC correspondent in Moscow is saying that the public opinion in Russia is that they thought Trump would normalise relations, remove sanctions and be an asset (so to speak), but he failed miserably to do all of those things, so the consensus is that they don't really give a shit. They see Biden as being more predictable and "normal" to deal with and Trump would be probably not do much with Russia in a second term.

That's probably a reasonable public view, but the Putin view is that Trump is hastening a US collapse and Russia is exploiting that to gain power in the middle east and influence elsewhere. That's the same thing with Brexit. Now, I'm willing to believe that they didn't push TOO hard because they (like everyone else) thought it wouldn't be as close as it was, and thus didn't want to disrupt things only to have an angry Biden all too willing to punish them for it - but Trump has been great for Russian power if not all the Russian pocketbooks.

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Lots of articles of this nature available today, which is to be expected, probably.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/fivethirtyeight-upshot-polls-useless.html

"The Problem Isn’t That the Polls Were Wrong. It’s That They Were Useless."

Quote

 

Data journalism is only as good as the data that goes into it, and it’s already clear that the polls had some big misses this year.[....]

In truth, the polls only reveal one sliver of the reality of elections, and especially this election. But unlike in baseball, which Silver first made a name for himself analyzing before shifting to politics, this game doesn’t always have a predictable set of rules that all players abide by.[....]

[....]The polling gurus portray themselves as objective number-crunchers, unswayed by human bias or emotion. But in truth, they are in the reassurance business. Over the past weeks and months, after any troubling piece of news came out about lagging minority turnout or legal challenges to mail-in voting, Democrats could check FiveThirtyEight and see Biden’s odds at 89 out of 100 (or, if they were really feeling glum, check the Economist’s G. Elliott Morris and see them at 19 out of 20) and feel like things were still under control.* But they’re hawking a false sense of certainty—and, presumably, racking up earth-shattering levels of web traffic in the process.[....]

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

He’s foaming at the mouth so they’ve had to keep him locked up in the Oval office. Or the basement bunker.

Maybe he relapsed after all that hate rallying and effin' over his minions in the cold.

But, ya, all this pushing back against the count etc. isn't coming from the party, per se -- it's his campaign intimates and family members.  No lawyers will work for him, except the bozos and banana brains -- though he's still more dangerous than a flying manure.

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15 minutes ago, Ran said:

Pence is also very noticeably absent. He's probably refused to go out there any further while Trump is on his crying jag. The absurd kabuki theatre going on in Nevada -- with the first press conference featuring campaign staff or lawyers who refused to go on record -- is simply happening to assuage his hurt feelings, but the lawyers know they're not going anywhere and it's all just a show.

Oh that performance in Nevada was amazing.

This man was our Acting Director of National Intelligence for a few months this year.

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4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I wonder what nuggets of wisdom Plato is about to bestow upon us.

I think he's going to announce his dad died peacefully in his sleep, have Kimberly Guilfoyle ceremoniously place a golden blonde wig on his head, and assume the mantle of the Grifter King.

And then, ominously, Ivanka's music will start to play...

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