Covid-19 #20: Nowhere to Hide

[Zorral]

Excellent long read piece in the WaPo about a small South Dakota community and covid-19. It illustrates what's been wrong all along with getting the message out how dangerous and dreadful this disease is -- because it is hidden from everyone but the front line workers in the health industry, the doctors, nurses and hospitals.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/09/south-dakota-mitchell-covid-masks/?

This, in the town, where people are sick and dying at great rate, where their small hospital can't handle the patients, where helicopters are heard day and night medivacing patients elsewhere (think ambulance costs are beyond your means to pay? Wait until receiving the bills for air medivac!)

This is Mitchell, SD, home of the "World's Only Corn Palace." I've been there.

Here in medias res, we have a town doctor:
 

Quote

 

....It felt like she was living in an alternative universe these days, where seriously ill covid-19 patients overwhelmed the hospital and her clinic and neighbors were dying as folks were living their lives, eating out in restaurants, drinking in bars and attending weddings, funerals and the Pheasants Forever fundraising banquet.

Then there were the patients who didn’t even believe the coronavirus was real. That week, a patient in his 40s came in for a physical — he was high-risk and asthmatic — and his gaiter pushed down when she walked into the exam room. He said he couldn’t breathe in it and didn’t believe the whole pandemic thing anyway. People were dying from pneumonia because they were being forced to wear masks, he told her.

“The next thing you’re going to be calling me to come in and take the vaccine, and I’m telling you right now I’m not going to get it,” he told her.

Kenkel told him calmly that the research he was reading was flawed. She didn’t raise her voice but later questioned herself — why she had felt the need to sway somebody’s opinion in the exam room?

“To have people say it’s not real, that’s just unbelievable,” she said. “Well, they haven’t seen what I’ve seen. So maybe it is unbelievable. They just want to believe it’s not true.”....

....The anti-mask forces sat with naked faces, defying the mayor’s order. One by one, they got up to air their grievances. They wept. They swore. They cited junk science: Positivity defeats the virus. So does a healthy lifestyle, eating wild-caught sardines, pasture-raised beef liver and drinking raw organic kombucha. A young mother stood up and compared anti-maskers to Jews persecuted in the Holocaust: “The bare face is the new yellow star of Nazi Germany,” she said.....

 

Photo of woman weeping piteously, probably this one, when the utterly unenforceable, no-penalty mask mandate passed.  She looked just like the mega/magafone 'lady' of Staten Island doing a post election rally for shoggoth, just weeping, weeping, weeping, at the very idea her god wasn't going to personally lead her to the promised white supremacy landia because of the satanist police defunders.

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

13 hours ago, JoannaL said:

This article seems to imply that there is not a whole Phase III study for the Biontech vaccine. This is wrong, all the data is there and its analyzed at the moment by the European agency (and I think the FDA as well) for normal and  NOT emergency authorisation. that the British decided to go a month faster and do an emergency and not a normal authorisation does not mean that the data is not there (they just wanted to go faster and not analyze it all). For them it was just a question of speed. But the phase III data is solid -or if not , we will know soon - and there will be or wont be an authorisation because of full Phase III data at the end of the month in Europe. I think it is worth the wait.

No the article doesn't imply the Phase III data isn't there. It implies the data was not made publicly available for independent academic analysis, which the writer says is normally the case.

Point of order though. There can't possibly be full phase III data because the trials have simply not had enough time to gather all relevant, normal phase III data. Most importantly, appearance of long term side effects and length of immunity. But the approval will be made on all data that can be gathered at this point.

[The Anti-Targ]

Quote

Before his death Friday from complications of Covid-19, 78-year-old former Alabama state Senator Larry Dixon asked his wife from his hospital bed to relay a warning.

"Sweetheart, we messed up. We just dropped our guard. ... We've got to tell people this is real," his friend Dr. David Thrasher, a pulmonologist, quoted him as saying.

This pisses me off. It didn't take thousands of deaths in march and April to get people like this to take it more seriously, it took their own death in December to change their minds. Sympathies to the friends and family of this guy for their loss, but where was his sympathy for other people's suffering and loss and call to action months ago?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-we-messed-up-deathbed-plea-as-us-virus-deaths-soar-over-holidays/CMIIZIN2655DGSRMRQITMCTWV4/

What's that parable about "first they came for the [Jews?] and I didn't say anything because I'm not Jewish..."

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

This pisses me off. It didn't take thousands of deaths in march and April to get people like this to take it more seriously, it took their own death in December to change their minds. Sympathies to the friends and family of this guy for their loss, but where was his sympathy for other people's suffering and loss and call to action months ago?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-we-messed-up-deathbed-plea-as-us-virus-deaths-soar-over-holidays/CMIIZIN2655DGSRMRQITMCTWV4/

What's that parable about "first they came for the [Jews?] and I didn't say anything because I'm not Jewish..."

 

Welcome to how conservatives and empathy work. They tend to have none of the latter unless it directly affects them.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So the TV is saying the US just experienced it's most deadly day (excluding war, I'm assuming) in our recorded history. 

Nothing to see here, and as Americans we'll fight hard to break that record tomorrow! 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I wonder if the denial from so many people comes from the simple fact that about 50% of people have no symptoms. And other people have very minor symptoms.

If *everyone* got symptoms, and at least felt like utter shit for a few days, like with the flu, I’m sure that there would be less denial.

I think the denial stems largely from part of our society engaging in behavior that exhibits the death of expertise, and actively seeks to flaunt stupidity in the face of reality in part because it upsets those who believe in facts, or owning the libs, to put it shortly. The denial is clearly along party lines, and it's not shocking that those who both hate science and their political opponents are willing to put themselves at risk because it feels like they're telling the other side to fuck off.

Brilliant logic, I must admit.  

[Zorral]

The denial comes FROM NOT SEEING IT.

And from none of the news media telling what it is like for most of the people who get sick.  It's frackin' awful, even if they survive.

[The Anti-Targ]

23 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I wonder if the denial from so many people comes from the simple fact that about 50% of people have no symptoms. And other people have very minor symptoms.

If *everyone* got symptoms, and at least felt like utter shit for a few days, like with the flu, I’m sure that there would be less denial.

As one friend of mine said, this virus needed to be a bit more deadly for it to cause fewer actual deaths. SARS and MERS, way more deadly way way way fewer deaths. Other factors of course meant way easier to control, but still if all age demographics were at about 1% IFR and symptoms were in more like 80% of people, I think we might be at about half the number of deaths than we are today.

A bit of a warning on the Pfizer vaccine, latest official advice is to not get vaccinated if you are a severe allergy sufferer.

Quote

Britain's medicine regulator has advised that people with a history of significant allergies do not get Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine after two people reported adverse reactions on the first day of rollout.

Starting with the elderly and frontline workers, Britain began mass vaccinating its population on Tuesday, part of a global drive that poses one of the biggest logistical challenges in peacetime history.

National Health Service medical director Stephen Powis said the advice had been changed after two NHS workers reported anaphylactoid reactions associated with receiving the vaccine. They were among the thousands who received the shot on Tuesday.

"As is common with new vaccines the MHRA (regulator) have advised on a precautionary basis that people with a significant history of allergic reactions do not receive this vaccination, after two people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely yesterday," Powis said.

If you only suffer mild allergies you should still be OK.

[Starkess]

59 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So the TV is saying the US just experienced it's most deadly day (excluding war, I'm assuming) in our recorded history. 

Nothing to see here, and as Americans we'll fight hard to break that record tomorrow! 

Actually I think even if you include war. Although there's more nuance to it than that (see https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/deadliest-days-usa-history/) but in any case it's pretty bad.

[Kalbear]

38 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think the denial stems largely from part of our society engaging in behavior that exhibits the death of expertise, and actively seeks to flaunt stupidity in the face of reality in part because it upsets those who believe in facts, or owning the libs, to put it shortly. The denial is clearly along party lines, and it's not shocking that those who both hate science and their political opponents are willing to put themselves at risk because it feels like they're telling the other side to fuck off.

Brilliant logic, I must admit.  

We are literally doing the same bullshit we did 100 years ago. It isn't the internet, it isn't partisanship, it isn't bad news or fake news. 

It's people. People are absolutely shitty at not changing their behavior based on invisible, long-term risks. IF people were dying in the streets? Sure, people would probably change. If we had disaster after disaster that could be averted by recycling and driving less people would do that too for something like climate change.

But we're not like that. People aren't. It's very hard for people to change their behaviors based on unseen threats.

If we as a nation wanted to fix this, we needed to be united in purpose, broadcast massive propaganda at every possible place, and be committed to doing something about it like a wartime choice. But that's not what the US is about.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

So the TV is saying the US just experienced it's most deadly day (excluding war, I'm assuming) in our recorded history. 

Nothing to see here, and as Americans we'll fight hard to break that record tomorrow! 

Not exactly right, and obviously not the same as war (as lots of Americans die from sickness every day), but this puts it in perspective:

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

This from the editor of the Lancet:

Quote

LONDON — The Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine has a “distinct comparative advantage” over other leading candidates, the editor-in-chief of The Lancet medical journal said Wednesday.

The comments by Dr. Richard Horton came a day after his peer-reviewed journal published a study that found the vaccine candidate was safe and effective.

The data also suggested that the vaccine can help reduce the spread of Covid-19, as well as preventing illness and death.

The vaccine, produced in a collaboration between the University of Oxford and the British pharmaceutical giant, is one of several seeking to secure approval from medicine regulators amid rising hopes that a mass vaccination campaign could help end the pandemic, which has killed more than 1.55 million people worldwide.

“The Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is the vaccine right now that is going to be able to immunize the planet more effectively, more rapidly than any other vaccine we have,” Horton told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.”

Horton said it is important to think about vaccine immunization on a global scale “because even if we immunize one country, the threat then is you reintroduce the virus from another country that is not protected.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/09/coronavirs-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-to-immunize-the-planet-more-effectively-lancet-editor-says.html

It does make sense that a vaccine with far fewer demands on temperature controls during distribution and use will end up vaccinating more of the world than the ones needing -70DegC storage and distribution. So I do hope this vaccine gets approval by the key regulatory agencies soon, so the countries lacking the infrastructure to widely use the mRNA vaccines can start ramping up their vaccination programmes. I suspect remote locations of countries with pretty good infrastructure will also need to use the Oxford-Astra Zenica vaccine or similar.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Starkess said:

Actually I think even if you include war. Although there's more nuance to it than that (see https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/deadliest-days-usa-history/) but in any case it's pretty bad.

You led me down a mini rabbit hole. The Galveston hurricane must have been some next level horrifying given conditions 120 years ago.  

[The Anti-Targ]

43 minutes ago, Kalbear Total Landscaping said:

Not exactly right, and obviously not the same as war (as lots of Americans die from sickness every day), but this puts it in perspective:

 

 

Technically that's a list of deadliest events not deadliest days, though they may well directly correlate. During normal programming the USA averages 7,700 deaths per day.

The big deal, to me are these stats: Only heart disease and cancer are still ahead of COVID-19 in annual cause of death. The traditional 3rd place is accidents (all causes incl MVAs), and COVID-19 is 130K above the usual number for that. And not that it needs reiterating but the hard facts might be useful in discussions, seasonal 'flu AND pneumonia combined usually accounts for about 60,000 deaths annually in the USA, so the country is certain to end up >5x that number for COVID-19, as it's going to hit 300,000 in the next day or three. Of course 31 Dec is not a full year for COVID-19. To assess the 1 year death rate for COVID 19 in the USA we need to wait until I guess 15 Feb (though there could be an argument for 1 March as the day of the first death). There is no real possibility that annualised deaths from COVID-19 will exceed annual heart disease deaths for 2020, but if the rest of winter averages 2,000 deaths per day it will become uncomfortably comparable. Possibly it is already uncomfortably comparable even at just 50% of average annual heart disease deaths.

I don't think New Zealand is a poster-child for how the "white" world (AKA the west) could have managed the pandemic, because our result was a mix of good fortune and good decisions. But I think Australia is an example to the rest of the west. It had a substantial second wave, which if state and federal govt had buried its head in the sand would have lead to a major blow out. But it sorted itself out and largely has the virus beaten a second time. So any wealthy country with significantly worse death stats than Australia should face a reckoning for its political leadership, and potentially it's health bureaucrats if their advice was bad.

I rate the chances low, but I think, once it's largely over, the Biden administration and every other govt in the world who let their people down, should offer a no-admission of liability and agreement not to sue any federal, state or local govt / agency (but totally an admission of liability and basically a pre-emptive class action settlement) one off $100,000 payment to every family who lost someone to the virus, and $50,000 and lifetime free medical care to anyone who has suffered long-term effects from the infection. For the USA it's maybe $50 billion depending on the final death count, but that's small potatoes as a one off gesture really. Sure, even with the best policies a lot of these deaths would have still happened, but as no one can say who would have died anyway and who would have lived, then every death should weigh on the collective conscience of all levels of govt.

I would still say it should be open season on any private business who's decisions directly caused spread of the disease, like making people choose between staying home while sick or being able to pay the bills.

There has got to be accountability for the people in positions of leadership and power who made things worse than they should have been.

 

[BigFatCoward]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

This from the editor of the Lancet:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/09/coronavirs-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-to-immunize-the-planet-more-effectively-lancet-editor-says.html

It does make sense that a vaccine with far fewer demands on temperature controls during distribution and use will end up vaccinating more of the world than the ones needing -70DegC storage and distribution. So I do hope this vaccine gets approval by the key regulatory agencies soon, so the countries lacking the infrastructure to widely use the mRNA vaccines can start ramping up their vaccination programmes. I suspect remote locations of countries with pretty good infrastructure will also need to use the Oxford-Astra Zenica vaccine or similar.

Most importantly for the poorer countries, it's by far the cheapest. 

[Kalbear]

Well, shit.

 

 

[williamjm]

16 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@The Anti-Targ - well, shit. On the allergy thing.

I have a severe mold allergy and I have been on allergy shots for two years. My reaction even to my shots, which are half the normal dose, lasts for days. I’ve never needed my Epi-pen, but I have one. 

F@&K.

Hopefully one benefit of so many different vaccines being developed is that one of the others might cause fewer problems for people suffering from allergies.

[DireWolfSpirit]

16 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

@The Anti-Targ - well, shit. On the allergy thing.

I have a severe mold allergy and I have been on allergy shots for two years. My reaction even to my shots, which are half the normal dose, lasts for days. I’ve never needed my Epi-pen, but I have one. 

F@&K.

You will still have one of the other vaccine candidates available to you in the coming months most likely.

Regarding Brazil........ What the ever living F!

Bolsanaro(sp) is straight up nut job. He's probably got a backroom deal with a favored vaccine manufacturer and is manuevering to profit off some exclusitivity clause or some crooked shit like that.

Matter fact, I'm shocked we haven't caught Trump trying something similar for the U.S. He must've been too distracted with the Emirates bribery/arms deal to formulate a similar vaccine scheme before his term expires. Crooks the both of them Bolsanaro and Trump.

[Impmk2]

Vaccine being developed in Australia abandoned in phase 1 trials due to interference with HIV diagnostic tests.

Looks like they were using a small portion of HIV protein as a molecular clamp to maintain the structure of the target antigen (the spike protein). There was an immune response to that portion of the protein causing people to test positive for antibodies to HIV. Doesn't sound like it interfered with the immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 antigen, but screwing up HIV testing in a significant portion of the population would obviously not be a great thing.

[Clueless Northman]

19 hours ago, Zorral said:

The denial comes FROM NOT SEEING IT.

And from none of the news media telling what it is like for most of the people who get sick.  It's frackin' awful, even if they survive.

This.

When it's the Black Plague and your streets are full of dead bodies, it's hard to ignore. When it's 9/11 and 3K deaths happen on live TV across the world, it's hard to ignore - though even then you had wackos. When all the deaths happen unseen, barely reported, no pictures (I can understand the respect of the dead, privacy and all that), many people don't give a fuck as long as it doesn't hit them directly.

 

18 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I rate the chances low, but I think, once it's largely over, the Biden administration and every other govt in the world who let their people down, should offer a no-admission of liability and agreement not to sue any federal, state or local govt / agency (but totally an admission of liability and basically a pre-emptive class action settlement) one off $100,000 payment to every family who lost someone to the virus, and $50,000 and lifetime free medical care to anyone who has suffered long-term effects from the infection.

There has got to be accountability for the people in positions of leadership and power who made things worse than they should have been.

There has got to be accountability. Which doesn't mean that governments could just buy grieving families with blood money. It actually means shipping the bulk of governments, specially in Europe and America, to the courts and try them for killing their own people - because it's exactly what they willingly did. To be blunt, I would wish for a harsher punishment for these dumb fuckers than for Saddam Hussein and his ilk, because the latter is a bloodthirsty dictator, but the former are supposed to be the beacon of democracy and human rights and to claim the mantle of defender of human lives as soon as there's an issue in any other country.

And even if Australia is a good example, I'll stick with using Vietnam to shame our useless corrupt criminals in charge. Sure, Vietnam has hot wet weather to reduce the power of the virus, but when you consider other places, for instance how bad it's been in India or across Latin America, good policies obviously were the main factor.