Covid-19 #20: Nowhere to Hide

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

This.

When it's the Black Plague and your streets are full of dead bodies, it's hard to ignore. When it's 9/11 and 3K deaths happen on live TV across the world, it's hard to ignore - though even then you had wackos. When all the deaths happen unseen, barely reported, no pictures (I can understand the respect of the dead, privacy and all that), many people don't give a fuck as long as it doesn't hit them directly.

 

There has got to be accountability. Which doesn't mean that governments could just buy grieving families with blood money. It actually means shipping the bulk of governments, specially in Europe and America, to the courts and try them for killing their own people - because it's exactly what they willingly did. To be blunt, I would wish for a harsher punishment for these dumb fuckers than for Saddam Hussein and his ilk, because the latter is a bloodthirsty dictator, but the former are supposed to be the beacon of democracy and human rights and to claim the mantle of defender of human lives as soon as there's an issue in any other country.

And even if Australia is a good example, I'll stick with using Vietnam to shame our useless corrupt criminals in charge. Sure, Vietnam has hot wet weather to reduce the power of the virus, but when you consider other places, for instance how bad it's been in India or across Latin America, good policies obviously were the main factor.

End of the day, that's what accountability will end up being. Collective responsibility (esp cabinet collective responsibility) means no one person can be held criminally liable for something the govt does, so any time the govt screws up in a way that it can be materially held to account financial compensation is the redress. So it's blood money, not gaol, or lining up against the wall and having pooh thrown at them, or some other act of retributive bodily punishment. Maybe in specific instances individuals connected to govt decisions could be pursued in criminal or civil action. For the UK, someone like Dominic Cummings could be a target if people could collect some damning evidence.

You could look to drag the govt through the courts, but, for commonwealth countries, a royal commission of inquiry, which has subpoena powers, could be a better option. I imagine there are equivalents in other countries. Maybe also a coronial inquest. Not sure if coroners have legal authority in epidemic situations, but they are statutory bodies with a specific mandate to look into why, and how people died, and what mitigations should be put in place, at least for the future. I don't think they can recommend redress though, whereas a royal commission can.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The graphic on the news is pretty jarring. More Americans have now died from COVID than were killed in combat during WW2.

And there's a good chance that number will double in four months.

[Larry of the Lawn]

On 12/9/2020 at 9:29 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I think the denial stems largely from part of our society engaging in behavior that exhibits the death of expertise, and actively seeks to flaunt stupidity in the face of reality in part because it upsets those who believe in facts, or owning the libs, to put it shortly. The denial is clearly along party lines, and it's not shocking that those who both hate science and their political opponents are willing to put themselves at risk because it feels like they're telling the other side to fuck off.

Brilliant logic, I must admit.  

It's not just partisan though.  If that was the case, one party would actually be listening to scientists on climate change and be demanding changes that probably 99% of us wouldn't be ok with making in order to fix the problem.  But that's not how it is.  

People might even agree on problems that need to be fixed (like inequality in healthcare, climate change, policy violence) but be completely unwilling to change their lifestyles or make a sacrifices to actually fix it.  They definitely won't do it on their own, but most aren't even willing to actually make the steps needed to fix these things.

[Luzifer's right hand]

We got some numbers regarding official covid-19 deaths during the first wave on Austria now. About 1/4 died at home and about 3/4 at the hospital(2/4 non-ICU and 1/4 ICU).

[Zorral]

"Military-grade camera shows risks of airborne coronavirus spread"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/12/11/coronavirus-airborne-video-infrared-spread/?

In the meantime:

"The coronavirus is ravaging the world. But life looks almost normal in much of Africa."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/africa-coronavirus-low-cases-deaths/2020/12/10/e907a1c2-3899-11eb-aad9-8959227280c4_story.html

 

Quote

 

NAIROBI — The top headline last week on a popular Kenyan news website could barely contain its sarcasm: "America, with 270K deaths, 13M infections, warns citizens not to travel to Kenya over high risk of COVID-19."

To many here, American fears of catching the coronavirus in Africa seem particularly ludicrous. Almost every one of the continent’s 54 countries, while home to some of the least developed health-care systems in the world, has registered fewer deaths from the virus in the last nine months than the United States now suffers each day.

While testing has been comparatively limited, the continent appears to have bucked the doomsday predictions of global health experts. The telltale signs of severe outbreaks seen elsewhere — crowded hospitals and a spike in deaths — have emerged in only a handful of African countries. Surveys by the World Health Organization have found negligible excess mortality rates in most African countries, reducing suspicion that many covid-19 deaths are going uncounted.

Data is scant, as are peer-reviewed studies. But even as more research emerges, public health experts caution that the explanation for why Africa’s caseload has remained low will be complicated....

 

 

[Zorral]

UPDATE!

Finally, about noon,  the governor banned indoor dining in NYC, starting Monday.

It won’t do any good though, because they really have taken indoor outdoors, inside hard structures with little to no ventilation.

Plus, everything else evidently remains open such as gyms, churches, bowling alleys.  Museums might well be OK, at least the big ones, as they have very high ceilings, great ventilation, and strictly limit the numbers inside.

Kinda wondering why Cuomo is even bothering. Particularly because he didn't do it before Thanksgiving. Though, considering how stupid people are behaving now, maybe he thought leaving indoor open would cut down on the numbers of private gatherings, and the number of attendees.  But I doubt that had any effect on whether someone did or did not opt for giving and attending a private celebrations.

And, to only intensify the Horror Show, NYC has reopened jazz clubs and piano bars -- as long as they sell salsa and chips to qualify as restaurants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/arts/music/nyc-live-music-indoors.html?

Quote

 

....While the number of daily new coronavirus cases in New York City has been climbing to levels not seen since April, in-person learning has been suspended at public middle schools and high schools, and Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo warned this week that indoor dining in the city could soon be banned, Birdland and a number of other noted jazz clubs and piano bars across the city have been quietly offering live performances again, arguing that the music they are presenting is “incidental,” and therefore permitted by the pandemic-era guidelines set by the State Liquor Authority.

Those guidelines state that “only incidental music is permissible at this time” and that “advertised and/or ticketed shows are not permissible.” They continue: “Music should be incidental to the dining experience and not the draw itself.”

That has not prevented a number of New York venues that are better known for their performances than their cuisine — including Birdland, the Blue Note and Marie’s Crisis Cafe, a West Village piano bar that reopened Monday with a show tune singalong after declaring itself a dining establishment — from offering live music again.

“We think it’s incidental,” Ryan Paternite, the director of programming and media at Birdland, said of its calendar of performances that include a brass band and a jazz quartet. “It’s background music. That’s the rule.”....

 

 

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

NAIROBI — The top headline last week on a popular Kenyan news website could barely contain its sarcasm: "America, with 270K deaths, 13M infections, warns citizens not to travel to Kenya over high risk of COVID-19."

It's probably good for Kenyan COVID-19 rates if Americans are discouraged from travelling there.

[Clueless Northman]

7 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

People might even agree on problems that need to be fixed (like inequality in healthcare, climate change, policy violence) but be completely unwilling to change their lifestyles or make a sacrifices to actually fix it.  They definitely won't do it on their own, but most aren't even willing to actually make the steps needed to fix these things.

Alas, we're all stuck in a global prisoners' dilemma. And the only faint hope to get out of it would imply the kind of measures which would make a lot of people across the political spectrum cry "fascism".

[Zorral]

t turns out that indoor dining is still allowed on Long Island and other places in NY. Which means again a scattershot, not concerted effort. That works so very well, doesn't it.

The mayor says we've officially blown past all the indicators for shutting down ... yet ....

https://gothamist.com/news/nyc-blows-past-all-three-covid-indicators-first-time

 

Quote

 

For the first time since launching the metrics this spring, New York City has surpassed all three infection and hospitalization thresholds meant to monitor the spread of COVID-19.

Mayor Bill de Blasio revealed the troubling milestone during a press conference on Friday, while previewing the launch of a new command center that will soon help distribute a COVID vaccine to New Yorkers.

Suggesting a new gravity of the crisis, de Blasio acknowledged what many experts have already said.

"This is now clearly a second wave in New York City," the mayor said. "There are some communities that the numbers are even higher — that is in some cases directly related to use of masks or unwillingness to use masks. But overwhelming, we’ve got a citywide problem."

Hospitalizations reached 205 on Friday, exceeding the 200 mark for the first time in months. The 7-day average of cases is 2,559 and the rolling positivity average is 5.35% — well above the existing thresholds.

On Friday, Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered indoor dining closed in New York City beginning on Monday. Take out and delivery service could continue as could outdoor dining. Cuomo had warned earlier this week that indoor dining would likely be shut down in the city should hospitalizations continue to increase.

Across the state, there are currently more than 5,000 people hospitalized with COVID.

New York City hospitals have less than 20% of their beds available, according to state data....

 

Also hearing on NPR that  for a lot of people the side effect, feeling sick etc., after a covid-19 shot is a lot more like how one feels after the shingles 2 - shot vaccination -- really sick for a day or two. Which totally screws with vaccinating all the health workers immediately.

Also at least one of the vaccines seems not to be as effective as thought.

I dunno.   I just heard that on ATC - NPR.

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, williamjm said:

It's probably good for Kenyan COVID-19 rates if Americans are discouraged from travelling there.

Save the elephants!

One of the interesting suggestions within the article as to why this is the case in Africa, besides how much life is lived outdoors, the temperatures, and the general youthful population and lack of obesity (They Say!) -- is that the average African is exposed from birth and before to a whole range of deadly diseases, so their resistance to a virus of this general order is rather higher than the average European or USian.  It's something to look into, certainly not proven, the people interviewed insist.

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Also at least one of the vaccines seems not to be as effective as thought.

I dunno.   I just heard that on ATC - NPR.

I saw a story earlier that the GSK-Sanofi vaccine is having to go back to the drawing board because the dosage they were using seems to be too small to be effective. I guess it was probably inevitable that not every vaccine attempt was going to work first time, maybe the first two vaccines having such good results raised expectations a bit too much.

[Fragile Bird]

Last week I saw a story on CNN about the exploding Covid cases in South Dakota, told from a hospital in Rapid City. The reporter went in to an elderly patient’s room to interview him, and hold his hand. Keith Sugden, aged 88, had tears in eyes, but he assured the reporter they weren’t sad tears, but tears of joy at realizing how many people cared. He had a good life. His wife was dead, but he had more than 40 children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren and great-great-grandchildren. He wanted to recover and go back to his job as a greeter at the local Walmart, a job he’d had for 20 years. I had tears in my eyes as I watched the story.

Keith died on Dec. 8. I have tears in my eyes again. Rest In Peace, sir.

[Fury Resurrected]

On 11/26/2020 at 1:26 PM, Tywin et al. said:

But if you have a 40k car and need free food to survive, sell your car. 

Also, what kind of watch?

That won’t help if you owe more than you can sell for, which is the case for most 40,000k cars. And it won’t help if you can’t get a loan to get another car and need one

[Fragile Bird]

Well, the FDA has given emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

42 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

That won’t help if you owe more than you can sell for, which is the case for most 40,000k cars. And it won’t help if you can’t get a loan to get another car and need one

No that just means you'll have to sell it at a loss and accept getting a car worth $10,000, but at least you'll have some money to make ends meet at the end of the month. Moreover, why are you buying a new $40,000 car if you can't do that to begin with?

[A True Kaniggit]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Moreover, why are you buying a new $40,000 car if you can't do that to begin with?

People make bad decisions. It happens. 

6 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Anyways, I thought we had all kissed and made up and were beyond that discussion now.

Better not have. Pandemic you know?

[Fury Resurrected]

19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

No that just means you'll have to sell it at a loss and accept getting a car worth $10,000, but at least you'll have some money to make ends meet at the end of the month. Moreover, why are you buying a new $40,000 car if you can't do that to begin with?

Because you could when you bought it and a global fucking pandemic eliminated your job. If you have a loan you cannot sell your car at a loss unless you have the cash to pay the difference. That’s what a lien is. Your loan is guaranteed by the car. Therefore you can’t sell the car unless you can square the loan. This is happening to a lot of people and it’s very gross to see you parroting the right’s welfare queen bullshit.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Because you could when you bought it and a global fucking pandemic eliminated your job. If you have a loan you cannot sell your car at a loss unless you have the cash to pay the difference. That’s what a lien is. Your loan is guaranteed by the car. Therefore you can’t sell the car unless you can square the loan. This is happening to a lot of people and it’s very gross to see you parroting the right’s welfare queen bullshit.

Please, just stop. This has nothing to do with the canard attack line against fictional welfare queens. That's been bullshit since Ronnie Raygun said trees cause more pollution than cars. What I said, consistently, was live within your means. That's not a hot take. 
 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

People make bad decisions. It happens. 

Sure, but that doesn't excuse the behavior, especially if there's no acknowledgement that mistakes were made. 

[S John]

@Tywin et al.

My parents aren’t wealthy so I’ve always lived with the understanding that I don’t have a safety net. I have been economically fortunate up to this point. Still not wealthy but currently comfortable, and I have certainly made my share of small bad financial decisions, but to this point I haven’t made any catastrophic ones. If things keep going like they are, great, but life is rarely predictable and even someone relatively stable could easily get rocked out of nowhere. 

You really have to combine the fact that I haven’t made any objectively horrible financial decisions with straight up luck. Always must keep in mind that the current state of affairs could turn on a dime. I live well within the means of our combined household salary. But if I lost my job? Suddenly, in an instant, we are living well beyond our means with no guarantee of recovery.

You have to take calculated risks or you’ll never get anywhere. And something like Covid that nobody could have seen coming clearly caught some people who took otherwise standard risks with their pants down. The only other way to live is to rent forever and pay for everything in cash. With the former, you are tossing cash out the window every month that could be going toward building equity and the latter is rarely practical for high dollar items like houses and cars.

In order to eventually attain a little bit of wealth in this country, the primary thing that most people will do is to take the risk of buying a house. By most any measure a purchase of 200-400k for a single family home (if you are lucky enough to live in an area where it’s even that cheap) is well beyond the means of a typical family to make good on at short notice. 

I mean, sure, I’m a little less sympathetic if the point of distress is a fancy car but my point is that even a person playing it relatively safe, making the best choices they can based on current info, can get utterly fucked by an unexpected job loss. Good decisions are extremely important to financial health, but so is taking calculated risks. I think it’s easy to forget just how exposed all of us are if all of the sudden we can’t pay our monthly payments and cash was demanded for everything we ‘own’. In a sense just about anybody who has financed a house is living beyond their means.