Covid-19 #20: Nowhere to Hide

[Zorral]

@garth  -- you are exceedingly naive as to how this behemoth called health care, excuse me, let's be more accurate, the insurance behemoth in the USA actually lurches and body blocks all attempts to lower costs and do the right thing.

~~~~~~~~~~~

Herd Immunity never dies.  Har Har Har.  Not.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/12/herd-immunity-scott-atlas-rand-paul-epidemiology.html

Quote

 

....As of this writing, we’ve had 13.4 million people who been confirmed to have COVID-19 [quite a few thousands more by today], and we know from randomly sampled serological studies that many more infections have gone undetected. Let’s assume that for every confirmed case, there are four more undetected infections. Based on that reasoning, it works out that the United States has experienced around 67 million COVID-19 cases so far … which means just 130 million more to go!

Herd immunity through natural infection would take a painfully long time. Maybe you have heard proponents of herd immunity talk about how speedy the resolution of this mess could be via this route. I understand why that sounds appealing, because I, too, have been stuck at home for 10 months and would like it to end right now if possible. Unfortunately, it’s not true.

If we kept up the staggering pace that the United States experienced for the month of November—140,000 confirmed cases a day, and many more assumed unconfirmed—it would take another 186 days to reach wonderland. I know November felt like half a year, but can you imagine if the plan was to go on like that for another six months? Before you say that this seems pretty reasonable, be sure to check with your nearest hospital-based health care provider. This pace is killing them. And frankly, six months is optimistic. If there are fewer than four unconfirmed cases for every one confirmed, then it will take longer, perhaps much longer....

 

Yesterday the number of new cases in the US was 200,000. The hospitals already have no beds -- so where are you going to go to have your baby, your cancer treatments, your broken leg set, your kid's ear infection seen to and get a prescription for antibiotics, and on and on and on.

In New Orleans the mayor is trying to have one rule for the residents of NO, and a let er rip for tourists -- for the sake of the economy.  So for the sake of the economy all those people who in NO are getting sick too, particularly those who 'service' the goddamned what happens in NO stays in NO yahoo! tourists.

It's just insane that those who are supposed to be leaders will not accept there is no way to control the virus while not closing down bars, gyms, restaurants, churches, sex clubs and tourism, and having isolation and curfews and masks.  We did all that for a while here in NY and NYC particularly, during the crazy rates of March, April, May and part of June.  And it worked!  Then we opened up and people refused to wear masks, and look where we are now.

 

[Gareth]

12 minutes ago, Zorral said:

@garth  -- you are exceedingly naive as to how this behemoth called health care, excuse me, let's be more accurate, the insurance behemoth in the USA actually lurches and body blocks all attempts to lower costs and do the right thing.

 

 

As someone who work for a health care system with 27 hospitals, hundreds of clinics, and 30+ outpatient pharmacies, maybe I am naive.  I would like to think that when I was a member of the P&T committee we did lower costs especially in the behavioral health hospitals/units since they always seemed to have lower DRG reimbursements.  

I do want to emphasized that you can always call the ORC if your medical records are not updated to be accurate.  We have patients do this all the time; some legitimate and some bogus claims.  Either way, we always took it seriously. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

7 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

The short and simple answer is no. 

The long and complicated one is that free testing is highly exclusive. One may ask for one via their local GP, but in order to be applicable for a free PCR, one must fulfill quite a few criteria, which are as changeable as other covid related regulations. I think currently one needs to have a cough, fever (>38.5C), loss of smell or taste, heavy breathing to be even considered, if in addition to active covid symptoms you are also direct contact of a confirmed case OR have been abroad OR a healthcare worker OR care home worker OR under regular medical treatment you do actually get a free test. In any other case (mild symptoms, precaution, planned travel out of or back to the country, etc) you will pay €55 plus a house call fee of €25-55 (unless you are entirely symptomless and not under house lockdown) for a PCR, and an extra €35/40  (respectively) if you want antibody/antigen quick test (and an extra €7 if you happen to need the lab results in English for any reason). I paid €145 for a PCR and an antibody test on a weekend day when I was ill with mild flu symptoms. Another way to get a free test is via your company if it’s large enough to want or have to afford screening employees in case of a suspicion or confirmed case of covid. 

I only know one guy that took the antibody test, he claims it cost him $300.

Both my tests were so called "rapid tests" where a nasal swab is involved. Regarding relying on "word of mouth" conversations, each of these so called rapid tests took a full 4 days to get my results. This after person upon person claiming I could get 24 to 48 hr results. The net affect being each time , I had to use almost a full weeks vacation time for 2 day visits to my parents.

Sucks but it was only way I was going to see them at all this year. No in person Xmas will be happening with them either, just going to mail gift cards.

[RhaenysBee]

7 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I only know one guy that took the antibody test, he claims it cost him $300.

Both my tests were so called "rapid tests" where a nasal swab is involved. Regarding relying on "word of mouth" conversations, each of these so called rapid tests took a full 4 days to get my results. This after person upon person claiming I could get 24 to 48 hr results. The net affect being each time , I had to use almost a full weeks vacation time for 2 day visits to my parents.

Sucks but it was only way I was going to see them at all this year. No in person Xmas will be happening with them either, just going to mail gift cards.

Huh interesting. Those are the most affordable here. I’m sure it varies from place to place. 

Yes, that is unfortunately the case here as well when you are a random individual in the grand scheme of the system. Rapid tests are only rapid when an employer runs them to screen staff. 

uhh that’s really really harsh. I mean I would have done the same to see my family but it’s still unfair and frustrating to lose so many vacation days due to slow testing. And I’m very sorry that you won’t be seeing your family for Christmas  

[Fragile Bird]

Oh look!

Pfizer can only ship half the doses they promised this month (20 M) because of supply issues.

[Xray the Enforcer]

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I only know one guy that took the antibody test, he claims it cost him $300.

Both my tests were so called "rapid tests" where a nasal swab is involved. Regarding relying on "word of mouth" conversations, each of these so called rapid tests took a full 4 days to get my results. This after person upon person claiming I could get 24 to 48 hr results. The net affect being each time , I had to use almost a full weeks vacation time for 2 day visits to my parents.

Sucks but it was only way I was going to see them at all this year. No in person Xmas will be happening with them either, just going to mail gift cards.

This is the problem with using vague nomenclature. The antigen (i.e. looking for viral proteins) test gives you results in 30-45 minutes. Like, there is literally no reason why you cannot get a result from an antigen test within an hour, because those analyses are done at point of care. Even when there was a 7-day wait for PCR results in my city, I still got an antigen test result in 35 minutes. 

If it's taking you four days to get your results, that means someone sent if off to a lab to do a PCR test (i.e. looking for RNA fragments), and those are subject to lab backups (plus PCR tests tend to take a few hours anyway because of certain chemical reactions that happen). 

Both of the above use nasal swabs.

The antibody test requires a blood sample.

[Raja]

This makes me so sad. They've left the people and the health care professionals to themselves.

[williamjm]

48 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Oh look!

Pfizer can only ship half the doses they promised this month (20 M) because of supply issues.

Do you have a link for this? I haven't seen it reported anywhere.

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, williamjm said:

Do you have a link for this? I haven't seen it reported anywhere.

It was reported on CNBC just before I posted. I assume stories will show up on the internet soon.

[Which Tyler]

13 minutes ago, williamjm said:

Do you have a link for this? I haven't seen it reported anywhere.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-slashed-its-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-target-after-facing-supply-chain-obstacles-11607027787

[Fragile Bird]

42 minutes ago, williamjm said:

Do you have a link for this? I haven't seen it reported anywhere.

Ok, CNBC has clarified: they were reporting the story published by the Wall Street Journal. However, it turns out the headline was completely misleading. Pfizer announced it was cutting deliveries in half because of supply issues back in September. The numbers we have been hearing, 40 M doses by the end of December, are still correct.

That WSJ article stopped a rally in the markets and stopped the price of Pfizer. There may be lawsuits filed in the next few days...

[Fragile Bird]

IBM Security is revealing that a “spear fishing” hack attack has been directed at companies that run the cold storage facilities that will store the Covid-19 vaccines.

The hackers use a real name of a company executive but a phony company, sending an e-mail to the sales department, asking about a contract for storage. The letter has a draft contract and RFP attached, and when the salesperson clicks on the link malware infects the company’s computers. The purpose behind the hacks is unknown, but it’s suspected that the hackers are searching for information that will allow them to disrupt the operations of the storage company, perhaps to disrupt the shipment of vaccine by damaging the stored doses.

IBM suspects a nation-state is involved, because they leave behind very little information that can be traced.

[rotting sea cow]

8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

IBM Security is revealing that a “spear fishing” hack attack has been directed at companies that run the cold storage facilities that will store the Covid-19 vaccines.

The hackers use a real name of a company executive but a phony company, sending an e-mail to the sales department, asking about a contract for storage. The letter has a draft contract and RFP attached, and when the salesperson clicks on the link malware infects the company’s computers. The purpose behind the hacks is unknown, but it’s suspected that the hackers are searching for information that will allow them to disrupt the operations of the storage company, perhaps to disrupt the shipment of vaccine by damaging the stored doses.

IBM suspects a nation-state is involved, because they leave behind very little information that can be traced.

I can't freaking believe that attacks using email attachments are still successful. After all these years.

They might be just criminals trying to hold hostage the computers unless a ransom is paid. Of course, nation state involvement cannot be ruled out.

[Wilbur]

A lot of time and energy is spent discussing the mortalities of Covid-19 infections, and I see facile posts on my Facebook page comparing the Covid-19 mortality rate to other diseases.

Both of my neighbors are doctors, one at Mayo and another in practice with hospital privileges at the other big Scottsdale hospital.  Given their roles, they see Covid-19 as a unique problem because unlike a lot of other virii, this one has long, lingering effects that are poorly understood that DO affect a large percentage of patients.

The term "long-haulers" describes these sufferers with Covid-19 who are in the hospitals with non-fatal failures of the heart, lungs, and other internal organs.  Patients apparently seem to be done with their infection, then go down with these other problems and are hospitalized for months, completely consuming the hospital capacities.

And so to my neighbors, the Covid-19 problem isn't necessarily one of death, but of debilitating long-term care eating up all the resources of hospitals, and a lack of understanding of how or why the virus has this or these long-term effects.

 

[VigoTheCarpathian]

2 hours ago, Wilbur said:

A lot of time and energy is spent discussing the mortalities of Covid-19 infections, and I see facile posts on my Facebook page comparing the Covid-19 mortality rate to other diseases.

Both of my neighbors are doctors, one at Mayo and another in practice with hospital privileges at the other big Scottsdale hospital.  Given their roles, they see Covid-19 as a unique problem because unlike a lot of other virii, this one has long, lingering effects that are poorly understood that DO affect a large percentage of patients.

The term "long-haulers" describes these sufferers with Covid-19 who are in the hospitals with non-fatal failures of the heart, lungs, and other internal organs.  Patients apparently seem to be done with their infection, then go down with these other problems and are hospitalized for months, completely consuming the hospital capacities.

And so to my neighbors, the Covid-19 problem isn't necessarily one of death, but of debilitating long-term care eating up all the resources of hospitals, and a lack of understanding of how or why the virus has this or these long-term effects.

 

Agreed, and I think it gets lost in the media churn.  I think the long term implications of the disease are lost on people and in the data, since we only talk infections and deaths.

We don’t know enough about what kind of care burden this will put on people long term, with or without hospitalization.  Not saying the nomenclature is correct, but I think they need to start talking about it in terms of war-time casualties, including people permanently debilitated, with lung/cardiac/neuro issues post infection.

I think there’s probably some easily validated ratio of people who recover but will need help to total of the deaths that needs to be hammered on in the media “yy people dead, zz living casualties of Covid-19 - these people will never be the same and will need long term healthcare to the tune of $xx billion dollars”. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

36 minutes ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

Not saying the nomenclature is correct, but I think they need to start talking about it in terms of war-time casualties, including people permanently debilitated, with lung/cardiac/neuro issues post infection.

In the U.S. I'd say it needs to be discussed as U.S. casualties "far exceeding" any combat we've been in post Civil War.

The sheer number for just one year of the pandemic is also only getting worse, as we now plow into winter. It's like a 9/11 groundhogs day, over and over.

[A True Kaniggit]

And my older brother, who I live with, tested positive. 

Great.

Guess I’ll make a trip to the clinic in the morning.  

[Impmk2]

Looking quite likely South Australia has eliminated our little outbreak. Last positive case of community transmission was now a week ago, and he wasn't out in the community for a week before that.

There's a quarantine hotel worker in NSW, but their case seems to have been picked up extremely early (her family tested negative), though she did travel a day (masked) by public transport while potentially infectious. If they haven't transmitted Australia may have effectively eliminated the virus outside of returned travellers in quarantine hotels. Fingers crossed.

[Clueless Northman]

On 12/3/2020 at 10:08 PM, Raja said:

This makes me so sad. They've left the people and the health care professionals to themselves.

Considering how badly healthcare workers have been treated by governments and how many shitty excuses for human beings have acted so recklessly and caused such an insane amount of suffering because they didn't give a damn - and therefore didn't give a damn about said healthcare workers' life and work -, I expect an unheard of huge amount of people resigning and getting the fuck out of hospital work as soon as the current tsunami is over.

 

On 12/3/2020 at 7:31 PM, Zorral said:

It's just insane that those who are supposed to be leaders will not accept there is no way to control the virus while not closing down bars, gyms, restaurants, churches, sex clubs and tourism, and having isolation and curfews and masks. 

 

At some point, sensible people will have to realize that most of our leaders have failed us, have betrayed us, and have downright killed us - and that a lot of them deserve to be simply shot on the spot, without even putting them on trial for crimes against humanity.

Also, at some point, sensible people will have to realize that a sizable chunk of their fellow citizens are psychopathic selfish pricks, since they experience 9/11 level of casualties on a daily basis yet still insist we make too much out of "just a bad cold" or "hoax". And the whole bunch of these fuckers need to be publicly identified and socially ostracized for the next few decades.
If this seems a bit extreme, let's just reflect on the comparatively insanely huge reaction most people and governments had to just one single 9/11 day 19 years ago, and the above will look ridiculously tame by comparison.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

And my older brother, who I live with, tested positive. 

Great.

Guess I’ll make a trip to the clinic in the morning.  

That sucks man. Best assume that you have. Stay safe and I wish you good health.