Covid-19 #28: Astra Projecting is an Out of Body Experience

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

What happens when you find out older people also get the blood clotting, now that millions of old people are getting AZ?

Grant Hill, an elite of the elite basketball prospects, said either after his third or fourth ankle surgery that wrecked his career for a time, that he finally understood what "practicing medicine" really meant. You still have to trust medical professionals, but they are just as human as any of us and mistakes can be made.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

In this article there were also new numbers on the side effect (so my numbers were old, I am sorry): 31 cases (two of them men), 9 deaths, of altogether 2,7 mio vaccinations. of these vaccinated there were 66% woman under 60 (medical personnel, primary school teachers and kindergarden carers)

Ouch.  Its hard to formulate a good response to that.  You can see where they got the 1 in 100k odds based on the above (and even worse for women).  Which isn't great given the risk profile for those under 60.  Statistically, it still probably makes sense to vaccinate but I can see why people hesitate.

The police force not being vaccinated isn't good at all.  If not good enough for x, why is it good enough for me!

I'm still hoping that most of those deaths are rather old (just identified later on).  A very good treatment would change the odds at least.

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I have read European officials say the problem has not been a “batch” issue, that it’s happened across different batches of vaccine. What is it that Sherlock Holmes said? When you have eliminated the impossible, no matter how improbable, what remains must be the truth? If the UK is not seeing any of those rare clotting events, doesn’t that suggest there is something different about the way the European plant is manufacturing AZ vaccine? It’s what I keep going back to as the source of the problem.

I imagine that was looked at.  Given Poland, the UK, Ireland (and a lot of other countries) haven't seen this issue to any noticeable degree, i'd go more for a genetic source or an environmental reason (e.g. eating more X makes you more likely to suffer if you have taken AZ).  But with no medical background, I have no real reason to believe that.

Norway suspended AZ for 3 more weeks last week.  So they aren't expecting a quick solution.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Austria has been offered a million doses of Sputnik V. 

Buying Sputnik V is not a bad idea I guess especially because it is the one vaccine that does not have a completly horrible rep among far right folks. If things work out and they sign a deal we are supposed to get 300k doses next month.

On the other hand Kurz is threatening to block a 100 million Pfizer purchases by the EU unless we get a bigger share...

[Pebble thats Stubby]

36 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Austria has been offered a million doses of Sputnik V. 

Buying Sputnik V is not a bad idea I guess especially because it is the one vaccine that does not have a completly horrible rep among far right folks. If things work out and they sign a deal we are supposed to get 300k doses next month.

On the other hand Kurz is threatening to block a 100 million Pfizer purchases by the EU unless we get a bigger share...

I hope those on your far right don't hear the Sputnik Conspiracy theory I had preached at me the other day.

 

the Sputnik vaccine is the AstraZeneca Vaccine the Russians stole when they hacked the Oxford trials last year.

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

Just now, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I hope those on your far right don't hear the Sputnik Conspiracy theory I had preached at me the other day.

 

the Sputnik vaccine is the AstraZeneca Vaccine the Russians stole when they hacked the Oxford trials last year.

 

Some certainly will not some will be willing to take it which is better than nothing. 

[JoannaL]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Ouch.  Its hard to formulate a good response to that.  You can see where they got the 1 in 100k odds based on the above (and even worse for women).  Which isn't great given the risk profile for those under 60.  Statistically, it still probably makes sense to vaccinate but I can see why people hesitate.

So the EMA will reassess the data next week. But the German agency will decide sooner, some sources say today, if they will change the recommendations to just for certain age groups. The health ministers of the German states meet this evening. I think the odds (risk/benefit) of AZ for younger woman  are  not good enough (if it were the only vaccine then perhaps you would have to work with it, but you can just give Biontech to younger women).

[Zorral]

8 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Jokes aside I read that checking nearby red politicial areas for an appointment is a worthwhile approach if you want to get your shot asap.

All sorts of people here have gotten vaccinated down in Florida.  It's so easy, no appointment necessary.  Just walk into the nearest one in your location.  These are NYers who are / were down there to help clear out elderly parents' home in prep to sale, before moving, or after they passed away, that sort of thing.  But vacationers and those who go down for winters too. It's unbelieveably easy -- because so few locals are interested.

In the meantime we here well on the way to a massive surge, and despite all the experts, gub and mayor are opening everything.  There's now a vaccination passport app -- Excelsior -- that one can apply for on line, that allows one into everything from sports events to Broadway.  This is evidently very easy to use and effective --opposite to finding an appointment to get vaccinated.  Plus it has all your private data from where you live and phone number, to your health data.  Who gets access to this? Well, evidently, nobody really does, or they refuse to say.  But come tourists!  Come one and come all!  Get our Excelsior vaccination passport and do everything that NYC is famous for.

A lot of people, particularly doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers, EMS workers -- are weeping.  So are our President and our director of the CDC.

 

 

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, JoannaL said:

So the EMA will reassess the data next week. But the German agency will decide sooner, some sources say today, if they will change the recommendations to just for certain age groups. The health ministers of the German states meet this evening. I think the odds (risk/benefit) of AZ for younger woman  are  not good enough (if it were the only vaccine then perhaps you would have to work with it, but you can just give Biontech to younger women).

Its in our news now.  Pretty much as you say.   Sounds like Germany is going to stop using it on those under 60.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/fresh-blow-to-astrazeneca-vaccine-as-germany-reassesses-use-1.4524020

You are right that the logic of focusing AZ on older people and Biontech on younger is good.  The only caveat being that if Biontech does indeed have a higher efficacy, then using it on more vulnerable older people has a logic too.

The article also quotes the Bavarian premier complaining about the back and forth.  Sigh.  Now would be a great time for J&J to appear!  (Not that it will).  

What do they do if you have had your first dose of AZ? 

Edited to add:  I don't think we will do anything unless the EMA makes a ruling or we actually have a case here.   Or a lot of other countries report cases.

3 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Austria has been offered a million doses of Sputnik V. 

Buying Sputnik V is not a bad idea I guess especially because it is the one vaccine that does not have a completly horrible rep among far right folks. If things work out and they sign a deal we are supposed to get 300k doses next month.

On the other hand Kurz is threatening to block a 100 million Pfizer purchases by the EU unless we get a bigger share...

I think its 10m but has he even tried to justify it?  It would be beyond ridiculous. 

Sputnik will never be approved by the EMA in April but if he wants to buy it, good for him.

[Fragile Bird]

I wonder if the UK would swap our 1.5 M AZ doses that arrived today for 1.5 M Pfizer doses...

You think?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

32 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I wonder if the UK would swap our 1.5 M AZ doses that arrived today for 1.5 M Pfizer doses...

You think?

I would not have a problem with that in principle as long as we have enough Pfizer to do the 2nd doses of those who had Pfizer.

[Larry of the Lawn]

nvm

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

 

I think its 10m but has he even tried to justify it?  It would be beyond ridiculous. 

Sputnik will never be approved by the EMA in April but if he wants to buy it, good for him.

Populist megalomaniacs do not need to justify things I guess. He has been going full Orban recently with going after prosecutors and media alike. Maybe he is just in over his head though. I suspect he would still win an election though. :/

[JoannaL]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

What do they do if you have had your first dose of AZ? 

 

This is a discussion now. They say they have time until end of April to decide because its 12 weeks until second jab and they want to wait for UK results on a  study mixing differnt vaccines, which should be out until then.

[Clueless Northman]

7 hours ago, JoannaL said:

But you only need to vaccinate with J&J once, so 400 mio of that is as precious as 800 mio pfizer or AZ. also Africa is doing quite well compared with Europe or the Americas

Oh right silly me. That's indeed really good. Though I fully expect we'll need another shot against the new nastiest variants before we're fully over this mess. That said, I would also assume that pretty much anyone who gets a vaccine in 2022 (or later) will already have one that can efficiently tackle the mutations.

[Fragile Bird]

Here’s a question: were the women who got the blood clots using birth control pills? Any reports on that issue? I see the risk of getting a stroke while using the pill is 8 in 100,000. Does getting the vaccine increase the risk for some?

I would have to also think that being pre-menopause must add to the risk, since it’s showing up in younger women.

[Fury Resurrected]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Here’s a question: were the women who got the blood clots using birth control pills? Any reports on that issue? I see the risk of getting a stroke while using the pill is 8 in 100,000. Does getting the vaccine increase the risk for some?

I would have to also think that being pre-menopause must add to the risk, since it’s showing up in younger women.

Trans women also take it as part of hormone treatment, I’ve been wondering the numbers on that too

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Populist megalomaniacs do not need to justify things I guess. He has been going full Orban recently with going after prosecutors and media alike. 

Right.  This article is enraging and goes into great detail on Mr Curze's tactic.   And you are right that it is 100m.  The 10m I was thinking of is linked to the bigger number.

It also suggests that J&J vaccines have to go to the US still.  Not sure is that out of date info or are some vaccines still having to go to the US while they prepare the German factory.  It suggests that Austria didn't take advantage of the J&J option, so they may fall behind in terms of vaccinations at that stage.  But if they are getting 1m Sputnik before June, then they arent doing badly!  I was going to say i'm surprised that Russia found 1m vaccines so quickly, but getting an EU order is worth it.

3 hours ago, JoannaL said:

This is a discussion now. They say they have time until end of April to decide because its 12 weeks until second jab and they want to wait for UK results on a  study mixing differnt vaccines, which should be out until then.

Makes a lot of sense!  Hopefully, there will be good news before any decision needs to be made.  There should be plenty over 60's that need to be vaccinated in the meantime.

More positively, Pfizer/Biontech has increased its 2021 forecasted output from 2bn to 2.5bn.  Very impressive!

[Tears of Lys]

Has anyone blamed you yet for this, Pod?

If not, I hereby do. 

 

[Prue]

9 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Here’s a question: were the women who got the blood clots using birth control pills? Any reports on that issue? I see the risk of getting a stroke while using the pill is 8 in 100,000. Does getting the vaccine increase the risk for some?

I would have to also think that being pre-menopause must add to the risk, since it’s showing up in younger women.

From what I heard, the problem with AstraZeneca isn't linked to estrogen but to an auto-immune response. And women and younger people have a more active immune system than men and older people. So only those with a genetic disposition and a still very active immune system seem to be at risk, which would explain why there were no cases when Britain vaccinated older people with it. Yesterday an immunologist warned that this blood clotting overreaction of some people's immune systems might be a risk that all the vector vaccines have (AZ, Sputnik,...), so switching to Sputnik wouldn't help. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians had suspicious deaths because of blood clotting, too, and didn't report it.

[rotting sea cow]

11 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Here’s a question: were the women who got the blood clots using birth control pills? Any reports on that issue? I see the risk of getting a stroke while using the pill is 8 in 100,000. Does getting the vaccine increase the risk for some?

I would have to also think that being pre-menopause must add to the risk, since it’s showing up in younger women.

There have been reports that german women are taking less birth control pills https://www.dw.com/en/fewer-german-women-are-taking-the-pill/a-50499202

Maybe, is that related? Remember, the reported blood disorder is not "blood clots" but something more complicated. Maybe hormonal treatment has a protective effect?

1 hour ago, Prue said:

Yesterday an immunologist warned that this blood clotting overreaction of some people's immune systems might be a risk that all the vector vaccines have (AZ, Sputnik,...), so switching to Sputnik wouldn't help. I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians had suspicious deaths because of blood clotting, too, and didn't report it.

Yes. It's one of the speculations. In fact the authors of the report write the following

Quote

Whether these antibodies are autoantibodies against PF4 induced by the strong inflammatory stimulus of vaccination or if the vaccine itself triggers the formation of platelet activating antibodies cannot be distinguished by this study. Enhanced reactivity of the sera in vitro in the presence of AZD1222 could be explained by direct binding of the virus to platelets. Adenovirus binds to platelets and can cause platelet preactivation.

If true, is a problem with that particular vector (chimp adenovirus) or with all adenovirus vectors?

At the moment neither J&J, Sputnik or CanSino have reported similar problems. Argentina has vaccinated around 5 millions with Sputnik and things like this cannot be hidden in LA. I will try get some info.

The other speculation is that the spike protein in the AZ vaccine is not stabilized (as opposed to J&J and the mRNA vaccines), which might be one of the reasons of the lower efficacy and other problems. CanSino afaik is not stabilized either, but so far it has only been used massively within the Chinese military. The case of the Sputnik vaccine is unclear,