Covid-19 #36: I am the Apples and the Oranges

[Zorral]

Hmmmm.

https://www.rawstory.com/doctor-seeks-punishing-anti-vaxxers/

In the meantime I'm a bit heartened for where I live because the weekend's over and mid-week's not arrived, which means the people in the streets are far fewer, and they tend to live and work here, and I'm seeing a lot more of them, who, like me, are wearing masks, on the sidewalks, and inside the supermarkets.  Somebody ought to tell the TJ check out people that it isn't wise for their own well-being not to wear masks (most of them are, at least here, but some are not).

So glad NYU is mandating vaccination for all staff, faculty and students.  Good for the neighborhood.  Also noticed our zip code's infection numbers dropped between this last weekend and the one before. Evidently quite a few around here are taking Delta seriously.

[The Anti-Targ]

In our news today:

1 community case reported in Auckland, first since February. I am very sure it won't be the last and am expecting Auckland to go into an elevated alert level, whether it's only level 2 or a lockdown remains to be seen. Where Auckland goes the country usually follows but one step behind, so if Auckland goes into level 3 we'll be in level 2. Though if AKL goes into level 4 the rest of us will probably stay at level 2 unless a case outside of AKL crops up. The govt said it will go hard if delta shows up in the community, we'll see if they stick to their word. Unknown if this case is delta, but 100% of cases in quarantine in the last 3 weeks have been delta. So it's highly likely.

In a very good demonstration for how contagious Delta is (unrelated to the above), there was a case of spread in quarantine where an infected person in one room and a not infected person in a nearby room both briefly (like for a few seconds) had their doors open at the same time. The uninfected person subsequently tested positive.

Quote

Covid was spread between returnees at Auckland's Jet Park quarantine facility when room doors were opened simultaneously for seconds during food deliveries and a health check.

An investigation has revealed the highly contagious Delta variant was spread in seconds across a corridor and changes were now underway at the 31 MIQ facilities across the country to prevent synchronous door opening.

To me this means the actual travel of the virus from one room to the next isn't unique to Delta, so if it was the OG virus there would still have been virus coming into contact with the uninfected person. The difference is in virus concentration in the air and infectious dose. The infectious dose of Delta must be quite low for that sort of exposure to lead to detectable infection.

[Filippa Eilhart]

Poland is selling a million Pfizer doses to Australia.

[Zorral]

We ordered home testing kits online, because as soon as they arrive in CVS they sell out immediately, and like masks and sanitizer in March-April 2020, cannot be found in the stores.

 

[Padraig]

6 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Poland is selling a million Pfizer doses to Australia.

Heh.  Its getting common.  Ireland bought 1m from Romania, although I think they are only supposed to be arriving now (it was announced in early July).  It meant that we officially told the EU we don't want anymore J&J or AZ.  At least for the foreseeable future.

750k is huge for us but we are almost certainly going to be joining the booster crowd for (at least) the vulnerable/over 70s.

23 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

The German Stiko is now recommending vaccinating 12-17 year old.

Interesting.  There are very few hold-outs left in Europe/North America towards vaccinating kids.  I can understand their caution but the data had to be building up, the US has been vaccinating millions of kids since early May.

17 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

That is still very much the case. It's just that measures in addition to vaccination are needed if a country / state wants to get rates of infection back to what they were when people thought the end of the pandemic was in sight.

Right.  Even with the poorer published numbers, Pfizer cuts cases in half (roughly), which is a non-trivial number.  There is a question about transmissability then but there is also a suggestion that vaccinated patients don't maintain viral load as long as non-vaccinated patients (even if they start at the same level), which should help also.

On 8/15/2021 at 10:02 PM, RhaenysBee said:

We are steadily climbing towards three digit number of daily cases. Still, only 1% of tests come back positive - yet.

I was looking at this.  Hungary remains second best country in Europe (behind Poland).  That's great.  Delta presumably will hit hard eventually but every week delayed is good.  More vaccinated.  More boosted.  And yes, getting COVID followed by a vaccination seems to result in really good immunity.  I wonder has there been any breakthrough cases from that demographic!

[Mlle. Zabzie]

11 hours ago, Zorral said:

Hmmmm.

https://www.rawstory.com/doctor-seeks-punishing-anti-vaxxers/

In the meantime I'm a bit heartened for where I live because the weekend's over and mid-week's not arrived, which means the people in the streets are far fewer, and they tend to live and work here, and I'm seeing a lot more of them, who, like me, are wearing masks, on the sidewalks, and inside the supermarkets.  Somebody ought to tell the TJ check out people that it isn't wise for their own well-being not to wear masks (most of them are, at least here, but some are not).

So glad NYU is mandating vaccination for all staff, faculty and students.  Good for the neighborhood.  Also noticed our zip code's infection numbers dropped between this last weekend and the one before. Evidently quite a few around here are taking Delta seriously.

1.  I do have faith in my communities.  I am developing a (probably not original) theory that people in cities actually do “community” better in the US because externalities have a bigger immediate impact on their lives (this may be something that has changed over the past 100 years - I don’t know - I will have to go back and get a sociology degree).  I got my hair cut today, and everyone was masked, no questions.

2.  I think vaccine mandates are going to become more and more common as more organizations impose them.  There is a bandwagon effect.  

3.  I follow the data as well, and I will note that testing appears to be up.

[The Anti-Targ]

700% increase in the last 24 hrs (from 1 case to 7 cases). Hopefully there isn't another 700% increase tomorrow. But there will be more cases. Some of the new cases have, of course, been carrying on life as normal until yesterday and been in crowded places. We also have a teacher who has been in class, and a nurse who had 4 shifts after she had been in contact with the index case. So we are a wee way of peak yet I think. The whole country except for Auckland and Coromandel is in lockdown for 3 days. Auckland and Coromandel are in lock down for 7 days. It's a fools hope to think that will be the end of it. I think AKL and Coromandel will be at least 2 weeks in lockdown, and the rest of the country at least a week or maybe until next Friday. And that's a conservative estimate I think.

The index case is not patient zero. But they have linked the case genomically to the Sydney cluster, and since 1 July we have only had 3 (I think) confirmed cases arrive from the Sydney cluster. So at least that's something in terms of being able to find patient zero.

[lady narcissa]

Well Chicago is now averaging over 400 cases a day so we are moving back to mandatory masks in all indoor spaces starting Friday.  The mandate is super specific going so far as to say people in corridors and other common areas of condominiums need to be wearing masks.  The city doctor in charge of the health department in making the announcement was all this is not something to be 'alarmed' about but something we should be 'concerned' about.  Back in the winter on the worst days we were averaging 1,200 cases a day so this is still off from that.  But of course it is a mistake to only consider Chicago in isolation since we have people from Indiana and Wisconsin and other states coming through here every day as well as other parts of Illinois.  Southern Illinois is faring far worse right now with a much higher rate of cases - they are at a 10% positive rate while Chicago is only at 4%.  Looking at the Illinois tracker it looks like we had a day this week with over 9,000 cases in one day.  Schools have started back but all schools in Illinois are under a mandatory mask mandate by the Governor so hopefully that will help keep those numbers from going up even more.

[Old Zog]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

700% increase in the last 24 hrs (from 1 case to 7 cases).

Math technicality: going from 1 case to 7 cases is a 600% increase.

[The Marquis de Leech]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

700% increase in the last 24 hrs (from 1 case to 7 cases). Hopefully there isn't another 700% increase tomorrow. But there will be more cases. Some of the new cases have, of course, been carrying on life as normal until yesterday and been in crowded places. We also have a teacher who has been in class, and a nurse who had 4 shifts after she had been in contact with the index case. So we are a wee way of peak yet I think. The whole country except for Auckland and Coromandel is in lockdown for 3 days. Auckland and Coromandel are in lock down for 7 days. It's a fools hope to think that will be the end of it. I think AKL and Coromandel will be at least 2 weeks in lockdown, and the rest of the country at least a week or maybe until next Friday. And that's a conservative estimate I think.

The index case is not patient zero. But they have linked the case genomically to the Sydney cluster, and since 1 July we have only had 3 (I think) confirmed cases arrive from the Sydney cluster. So at least that's something in terms of being able to find patient zero.

Also, we aren't going directly from Level 4 to Level 1 (or even Level 2). The rest of the country will still be in Level 3 Lockdown next week, even if this thing remains confined to Auckland.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Texas Governor Greg "tuff guy" Abbot has succumbed to the virus.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott tests positive for Covid-19

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/texas-governor-greg-abbott-covid-19/index.html

I cannot find it within myself to wish him a speedy recovery.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

41 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Also, we aren't going directly from Level 4 to Level 1 (or even Level 2). The rest of the country will still be in Level 3 Lockdown next week, even if this thing remains confined to Auckland.

In the unlikely event that all cases are confined to AKL and Coromandel by the end of the initial 7 day lockdown I can see the South Island at least moving straight to Level 2. The reason not to would only be to stop us northerners from getting trembly lipped. Potentially most of the North Island could go straight to lvl2 with Waikato, Matamata, Hauraki, Western Bay and Whangarei/Kaipara being lvl3 buffer zones.

That's how we would do it with a FMD outbreak in animals that is confined to those regions. Though the movement control would last a bit longer because of the longer incubation period.

[DireWolfSpirit]

So it looks like the U.S. will be recommending those boosters at 8 months.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_611b2682e4b0bd41b27fb3a6

[RhaenysBee]

I just can’t… 

News this morning: New mutation identified in Hungary. - the article proceeds to explain that while looking for an efficient way to identify variants, experts found a cross between alpha and delta. They repeated the procedure in case of a mistake, but it provided the same result - a virus with both alpha and delta protein spikes. Then they go on to say that there has only been 1400something of this variant found over the world, but it’s hard to say because several countries can’t successfully identify variants. 

For crying out loud. A. So there isn’t a new mutant identified in Hungary, is there, you just found the first case of one that’s been identified before elsewhere. B. Did you just say we don’t have a (universally standard and effective) way of identifying variants? C. If this should be true for several countries, how in the world do world stats come about then, and whatever the hell leads headlines to claim stuff like alpha caused the third wave or delta caused the fourth? D. How is it not possible for some countries to identify variants, while - as we are led to assume - it is for others? Isn’t this the kind of technology you would share? 

These are the nuances that make me have zero trust in anything anybody says about this topic anymore. The entire coverage of it from day 1 has been a joke. 

[ljkeane]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So it looks like the U.S. will be recommending those boosters at 8 months.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_611b2682e4b0bd41b27fb3a6

I actually got a text from my GP telling me that they'd get in touch with me about getting a booster shot in due course the first day I qualified as fully vaccinated after my second dose.

I'm a bit torn on countries starting booster doses. There's clearly some logic to it and it would be the most vulnerable people getting one first but there are billions of people around the world who still haven't even been given any vaccination. It seems like there'd be a lot more benefit from focusing on getting those people access to vaccine both for the people who won't die from covid as a result and, out of self interest for wealthy countries, it'll probably more significantly reduce the overall number of cases which cuts the opportunity for dangerous variants to emerge.

[DireWolfSpirit]

2 hours ago, ljkeane said:

I actually got a text from my GP telling me that they'd get in touch with me about getting a booster shot in due course the first day I qualified as fully vaccinated after my second dose.

I'm a bit torn on countries starting booster doses. There's clearly some logic to it and it would be the most vulnerable people getting one first but there are billions of people around the world who still haven't even been given any vaccination. It seems like there'd be a lot more benefit from focusing on getting those people access to vaccine both for the people who won't die from covid as a result and, out of self interest for wealthy countries, it'll probably more significantly reduce the overall number of cases which cuts the opportunity for dangerous variants to emerge.

I'm hoping we can do both.

Everyone who willingly wants the vaccine should have it available to them. Yet at the same time we've seen in country after country where the vaccination rates have plateaued and then the hesitant slow the rate to a crawl.

I want all the willing in the fast lane, preferably everywhere of course. It's an unecessarry risk to have a bottleneck behind the complacent.

I view it like a race to get out of a building fire. We want everyone out, but some will be more expedient and of course it would way too dangerous to expect people too wait for the slowest exiters first.

[Zorral]

In Alabama: "Fed-up doctor tells anti-vaxxers they’re on their own"

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-doctor-stops-seeing-anti-vaxxers-vaccination-covid-20210817-lewvzechabfbzje3e7vvj42zdu-story.html

Quote

 

Mobile, Ala., physician Dr. Jason Valentine posted a photo on Facebook in which he’s seen standing in front of a sign that reads “Effective Oct. 1, 2021, Dr. Valentine will no longer see patients that are not vaccinated against COVID-19.” . . . .

...Valentine doesn’t appear to be picking on the ignorant so much as he doesn’t want to watch them hack, gasp and cough themselves to death after finally coming to appreciate the wonders of modern medicine once it’s too late.

“If they asked why, I told them covid is a miserable way to die and I can’t watch them die like that,” he wrote. . . . 

 

 

[Padraig]

6 hours ago, ljkeane said:

There's clearly some logic to it and it would be the most vulnerable people getting one first but there are billions of people around the world who still haven't even been given any vaccination. It seems like there'd be a lot more benefit from focusing on getting those people access to vaccine both for the people who won't die from covid as a result and, out of self interest for wealthy countries, it'll probably more significantly reduce the overall number of cases which cuts the opportunity for dangerous variants to emerge.

I'd agree with that.  Do we even know how big an increase in effectiveness a booster would have?  I know Pfizer has said that it increases antibodies but as far as I know, there isn't a 1-1 relationship between antibodies and effectiveness.  Its good to have some but if you have 100k, do you really need 1m? (i'm just making up numbers here).

It seems there is panic regarding Delta.  Focusing on the vaccinated for a solution, when its the non-vaccinated that is causing the problem.

Especially since Pfizer and Moderna say that the vaccine still has very high effectiveness against preventing hospitalisation or death.  So that will barely change, while billions wait on even 1 dose.

8 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

B. Did you just say we don’t have a (universally standard and effective) way of identifying variants?

Its a cost thing, as far as I know.  Even testing for COVID-19 is not simple.  Testing for a variant is even more complicated.  Some countries don't have the resources.  And the West doesn't seem particularly interested in insuring they do.  Tragic yes.  But its not unusual (looking at the vaccination rate in Africa).

A delta/alpha cross seems ok anyhow.  Everything I read still suggests that you want to avoid beta.  So unless alpha + delta = beta, it will hopefully be ok.

[Zorral]

4 minutes ago, Padraig said:

It seems there is panic regarding Delta.  Focusing on the vaccinated for a solution, when its the non-vaccinated that is causing the problem.

Why yes, yes this is so!

[Luzifer's right hand]

56 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Why yes, yes this is so!

Well most adults who are still unvaccinated in western countries are not interested in being part of a solution.

In that light trying to give the vaccinated even better protection seems sensible.