Covid-19 #39: Shooting the Messenger

[Gorn]

17 hours ago, Padraig said:

This is a very depressing article about the state of vaccination in Bulgaria.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/25/covid-vaccine-skepticism-bulgaria/

I know people get very frustrated about those that aren't vaccinated but I do think some of the attacks can get too personal.  The people in Bulgaria are victims.  They have been failed by their government and by the media (and those that finance the government/media).

Speaking as an Eastern European myself, many people in that region have an deeply seated instinct to do the exact opposite of whatever the "authorities" tell them to do. And while there is a social pressure from peers to vaccinate in majority pro-vaccination countries, over there there is social pressure not to vaccinate.

Not making excuses, just explaining.

[Zorral]

"The Public Continues to Underestimate COVID’s Age Discrimination"

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-status-age-discrimination.html

Quote

 

. . . .But in small type, King County included some other data that paint what seems at first blush like a very different picture: Fully 25 percent of deaths were among vaccinated people, the county reported. How can this be? If the vaccines are so effective that they reduce mortality 42 times over, how could the vaccinated account for such a large proportion of the deaths? The answer is actually quite simple: the overwhelming age skew of the disease, which — in the time of vaccines, breakthrough cases, and Delta — we are still, as a public, hugely underestimating and which is governing the post-­vaccine pandemic landscape as clearly as it did the pre-vaccine landscape. And while encouraging further vaccination remains by far the best tool we have in fighting the pandemic to an endgame détente, we should also be clear along the way about the continuing risks to the vaccinated elderly and what might be done to protect them. . . . 

. . . .Over the past nine months, vaccination has utterly transformed the shape of the pandemic in the places where it has penetrated the whole population. The effect isn’t just visible in countries like Portugal or Iceland — where the threat appears to be fast receding and which give an encouraging picture of our possible future — but in parts of the United States as well. But for all its transformative, liberating power, vaccination has not broken the basic age skew of the disease or offered anyone an exit ramp from it. Instead, in two profound ways, vaccination has confirmed the age skew: by producing severe breakthrough cases concentrated overwhelmingly in the elderly and by reducing the risk faced by individuals by an astonishing degree that is nevertheless smaller than the still more striking effect of age.

Although vaccines do substantially reduce the risk of infection, too, breakthrough cases are not terribly uncommon, accounting for perhaps as many as one-quarter of all new infections these days, as the CDC estimated in Los Angeles. But they are overwhelmingly mild, and in the rare cases when they do grow severe, they tend to be among the old and very old. According to the CDC, 70 percent of breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalizations and 87 percent of those resulting in death were in patients over 65. The median age of breakthrough deaths in England was 84; in King County, it was 79. . . .

 

Excellent stat chart for both Brits and US within the article.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

3 hours ago, Gorn said:

Speaking as an Eastern European myself, many people in that region have an deeply seated instinct to do the exact opposite of whatever the "authorities" tell them to do. And while there is a social pressure from peers to vaccinate in majority pro-vaccination countries, over there there is social pressure not to vaccinate.

Not making excuses, just explaining.

Vaccination rates have become a proxy for trust in institutions. There are certainly public figures who are exploiting that for influence in some spheres, but ultimately it boils down to that. 

15 minutes ago, Zorral said:

"The Public Continues to Underestimate COVID’s Age Discrimination"

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-status-age-discrimination.html

Excellent stat chart for both Brits and US within the article.

According to those charts, Covid also seems to have a preference for killing males; in every age cohort. 

[Zorral]

"No, Vaccinated People Are Not ‘Just as Likely’ to Spread the Coronavirus as Unvaccinated People
This has become a common refrain among the cautious—and it’s wrong."

Author is is an emergency-medicine physician and director of global health in emergency medicine at New York Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center, who has been dealing with covid patients up close and personal throughout the pandemic from the beginning.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/the-vaccinated-arent-just-as-likely-to-spread-covid/620161/

Quote

 

....This misunderstanding, born out of confusing statements from public-health authorities and misleading media headlines, is a shame. It is resulting in unnecessary fear among vaccinated people, all the while undermining the public’s understanding of the importance—and effectiveness—of getting vaccinated.

So let me make one thing clear: Vaccinated people are not as likely to spread the coronavirus as the unvaccinated. Even in the United States, where more than half of the population is fully vaccinated, the unvaccinated are responsible for the overwhelming majority of transmission....

....It’s worth acknowledging that even though the vaccines are our best protection—and still do what we need them to do very well—they’re not perfect. Vaccinated individuals can experience breakthrough infections, and when they do, they can potentially infect others. Some may also develop long COVID, although thankfully the shots dramatically lower this risk too. These reasons are exactly why, in many circumstances, mitigation measures such as masking and mandates still make sense to help limit the spread, even for the vaccinated.

As an emergency-medicine physician, I’ve seen firsthand the vaccines’ dramatic role in reducing severe outcomes from a virus that flooded my emergency room early in the pandemic. And as a member of one of the first groups vaccinated in the rollout, I was kept safe by the shots while I cared for patients, and they prevented me from bringing the virus home to my family.

But ultimately, a COVID-19 diagnosis in someone close to me is what highlighted why the assertion that the vaccinated are as likely to spread the coronavirus as the unvaccinated is so wrong.

Recently my cousin contacted me when her daughter tested positive for COVID-19. Her daughter fell ill just weeks before her 12th birthday, when she would’ve been eligible for a vaccine. My fully vaccinated cousin spent nearly every moment at her side—always indoors and usually unmasked—yet never fell ill herself.

“The vaccine seems to be working. It’s magic!” she texted me. Before getting her shots, she would have almost certainly been infected, and likely passed it on to others. But the vaccine broke the chain of transmission. My cousin never spread her daughter’s COVID-19 to anyone because she never caught it.

 

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Had 3rd dose today (Phizer - first two were AZ). Was told by nurse that as Inwas being given it due immuno-compromised, it was classed as 3rd dose rather than booster, and I may get 4th dose up in 6 months, which was news

[Zorral]

So far only Pfizer boosters seem to be available.  Partner had Pfizer vaccination, but I had Moderna.  Am not hearing at all when Moderna boosters will be available.  

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

So far only Pfizer boosters seem to be available.  Partner had Pfizer vaccination, but I had Moderna.  Am not hearing at all when Moderna boosters will be available.  

 

Data aren't in yet. When I spoke to my doctor last week, she was very bullish on the long-term efficacy of Moderna based on the information to date.  While a booster may well be required, she thought EARLIEST needed was probably 8 months (pending getting more data), and probably more like a year.  She caveated it all by suggesting that we all continue to look at the data.

 

[Zorral]

Just now, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Data aren't in yet. When I spoke to my doctor last week, she was very bullish on the long-term efficacy of Moderna based on the information to date.  While a booster may well be required, she thought EARLIEST needed was probably 8 months (pending getting more data), and probably more like a year.  She caveated it all by suggesting that we all continue to look at the data.

 

Do you think it depends on age too?

A friend in Austin, who had Moderna, is being told by her doctor to get a booster as soon as she can, and her doctor is scheduling it asap. This came after doctor realized amiga was 70.  This was a telemedicine appointment, and amiga is blessed with cameras of any sort loving her.  Thus the doctor had forgotten her age before looking down at her chart again.

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

8 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Do you think it depends on age too?

A friend in Austin, who had Moderna, is being told by her doctor to get a booster as soon as she can, and her doctor is scheduling it asap. This came after doctor realized amiga was 70.  This was a telemedicine appointment, and amiga is blessed with cameras of any sort loving her.  Thus the doctor had forgotten her age before looking down at her chart again.

 

Maybe?  She definitely was giving advice to me based on my profile to be sure.

[Fragile Bird]

Biden got his booster shot today.

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

"The Public Continues to Underestimate COVID’s Age Discrimination"

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/covid-19-vaccine-status-age-discrimination.html

Excellent stat chart for both Brits and US within the article.

That is a good article.  And it gives a useful way of seeing risk.  A vaccinated 80 year old has a similar risk profile to an unvaccinated 55 year old (or whatever the figures are.  I read the article earlier).   Similarly, an extra dose is most useful for the older demographic. 

I'd be shocked if Moderna and J&J both don't get approval for another dose in October (with similar conditions to Pfizer).  But Moderna has the edge on Pfizer, so if you have to wait an extra month for a Moderna dose, I imagine you lose very little.  I've seen no sign that Moderna has an edge only for certain age demographics also.  It improves the risk profile for all age groups, although there could be small differences.

Its those that got J&J that could justifiably feel impatient!  But takes a while to put these data packs together I suppose.

7 hours ago, Gorn said:

Speaking as an Eastern European myself, many people in that region have an deeply seated instinct to do the exact opposite of whatever the "authorities" tell them to do. And while there is a social pressure from peers to vaccinate in majority pro-vaccination countries, over there there is social pressure not to vaccinate.

Not making excuses, just explaining.

Thanks.  The article touches on that social pressure but interesting to get another perspective.  I would hae been somewhat aware of a lack of trust but its clearly a lot worse than I thought.  And it has serious implications in the longer term, beyond just COVID.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

This is now.

 

[Spockydog]

4 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

According to those charts, Covid also seems to have a preference for killing males; in every age cohort. 

Welp. I've been in contact with tour-manager-mate. He, his wife, and now his fifteen-year-old son are all "feeling pretty shite." None of them getting much sleep. All on the horse medicine.

They have a 12-year-old daughter as well. Jesus wept.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

18 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Welp. I've been in contact with tour-manager-mate. He, his wife, and now his fifteen-year-old son are all "feeling pretty shite." None of them getting much sleep. All on the horse medicine.

They have a 12-year-old daughter as well. Jesus wept.

I should have added,

According to the charts I've seen that break down vaccination rates by age and sex, Vaccine uptake among females is typically a few percentage points higher than males; in every age cohort. In Canada they are anyway. 

I'm sorry to hear about your friend. 

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

 

According to those charts, Covid also seems to have a preference for killing males; in every age cohort. 

Is that because right-wingism, especially of the nuttiest flavour tends to skew male? I.e. there is no increased physiological or immunological risk for males, the risk could be entirely mental / psychological.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

16 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is that because right-wingism, especially of the nuttiest flavour tends to skew male? I.e. there is no increased physiological or immunological risk for males, the risk could be entirely mental / psychological.

I don't know. Maybe most of the Covid misinformation is being spread my men and men tend to find them more trustworthy.  But like I said, with a few exceptions, the differences in vaccination rate by sex in any age cohort come down to a few percentage points. The fact that Covid deaths seem to have a similar difference, in the opposite direction, is an interesting correlation. 

I found a chart on Health Canada's website that breaks down percentages of Covid Hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and Deaths based on Age and Sex. You have to scroll almost to the bottom.

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

For everyone under 80, ICU admissions and Deaths are majority male; with a significant disparity in some cases. Hospitalizations are different. People aged 20-29 and 80+ who are admitted to the hospital are somewhat more likely to be female.

For those aged 80+, the majority of Covid deaths are female, (approx. 9,600 vs. 7,900) This might be explained by the actual numbers of males and females in that cohort. Females have a higher life expectancy than males. Maybe the reason more females over 80 are dying of Covid is simply because there are more of them. Again, I'm speculating. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

The Herman Cain Awards just got the mother of all nominees. Political cartoonist Ben Garrison has Covid. He's self-medicating with vitamins, beet juice and Ivermectin. 

For reference:

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Biden got his booster shot today.

The man has hairy biceps.

Watching Enes Kanter get interviewed on MSNBC right now. I wish more pro athletes were like him. He's 100% right to point out that it makes no sense for athletes to deny health and science information in this one area when it's fundamental to everything else they do, and that it's not a personal choice because do you really want to guard someone (not that he actually ever does) when you know they're unvaccinated and breathing and sweating all over you?

That's why the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is right to say the NBA should just not allow unvaccinated players to be on teams. 

[The Marquis de Leech]

Down to eight Auckland cases. 

[The Anti-Targ]

I still see us yo-yoing about a bit. Delta is not a smooth ride to zero unlike how the OG virus was. But, being the lowest daily case number since the early days of the outbreak is very positive news, and that it is 1/10th of the one day peak on 29 August is reason for some optimism. 

It's interesting the attacks from the right that are starting to happen. It is so far out from the general election that no attacks at this point are going to make a blind bit of difference electorally, however they can easily lead to unrest and disruption of the efforts to control the virus and move forward with a re-opening that is as safe as possible. 

Sheesh! a positive waste water test in Tauranga just a day after China gets a positive test on some Kiwifruit that was exported from Tauranga last month (before the lockdown). Completely unrelated, but that doesn't stop China from saying "see it did come from you!" when the reality is if it was a legit positive it was likely contaminated after it left NZ.