Covid-19 #39: Shooting the Messenger

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Welp. I've been in contact with tour-manager-mate. He, his wife, and now his fifteen-year-old son are all "feeling pretty shite." None of them getting much sleep. All on the horse medicine.

We have a good friend who subbed in for a missing bass player at 'prestigious' club a week ago.  Now he and everyone else in the group are sick with covid.  He was vaccinated. But ...  evidently ... others somewhere in that low ceiling small space were not? . . . .

I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THESE PEOPLE.  Or our friend, for that matter.  He seems not to be that ill, whatever that means.  But at least two of the others are quite, quite sick.

And yet another good friend out in the northwest who needs surgery desperately, cannot get scheduled, see a doctor or get a bed.

This has been another bad day. Things are looking dark again, quite dark, especially with covid, the economy, what's going on in D.C., the schools, crime, wherever one looks.  Things keep getting more and more difficult.  Like everybody else, I AM SO FRACKIN SICK AND TIRED OF THIS -- which doesn't have to be like this if only people exercised the brain God gave a goose, to quote my great-grandmother.

 

 

 

[lady narcissa]

My 80-something parents got their booster shots yesterday. Bizarrely the hospital system which has been a huge supplier of the vaccine in our area is not administering the booster so they ended up going to the drugstore (Walgreens) to get it.  Easy sign ups online. Able to get an appointment for the same day.  No wait.  Glad they were able to get it.

I'm contemplating getting the booster myself.  My 6 months from last dose isn't until next month so I will at least wait for that.  If I get it before the middle of December I can technically qualify for it by saying I am teaching...which I am, but I'm teaching online this semester because I refused to teach in person. But most of the university is in person and they don't ask for that detail.  If I thought I was preventing someone in need from getting one if I got one, I would not.  But the doses and appointments seem to be readily available right now so that does not seem to be the case.  I will probably wait until I've had my annual with my internist and see what she says.

[Impmk2]

So after the terrible start to the rollout, the % of total population jabbed in Australia should be on par with the US (single jabs) inside the next 48hrs. At current rates should be around the Germany and approaching UK levels in a few weeks, though there's likely to be a bit of a drop off as our largest state (NSW) hits 90%+ of the over 16 population jabbed, and 2nd largest (Victoria) gets to over 80%. Of course will take a good month or so after to get to those levels on the 2nd shot.

NZ is still shooting ahead with single jabs, so the western parts of Oceania seems to be doing ok after the slow start. Our closest neighbour (Papua New Guinea) on the other hand is doing terribly (1% jabbed). Lots of distrust and vaccine hesitancy and little to no infrastructure to support their rollout. Going to be a challenge.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Both 80+ parents have had the Pfizer booster, even though one of them originally had 2 doses of Moderna, while the other parent had the 2 doses Pfizer.

So at least in their area people are getting the Pfizer booster whether they had Moderna or Pfizer originally. They aren't waiting for a Moderna booster to arrive.

[The Anti-Targ]

8 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

So after the terrible start to the rollout, the % of total population jabbed in Australia should be on par with the US (single jabs) inside the next 48hrs. At current rates should be around the Germany and approaching UK levels in a few weeks, though there's likely to be a bit of a drop off as our largest state (NSW) hits 90%+ of the over 16 population jabbed, and 2nd largest (Victoria) gets to over 80%. Of course will take a good month or so after to get to those levels on the 2nd shot.

NZ is still shooting ahead with single jabs, so the western parts of Oceania seems to be doing ok after the slow start. Our closest neighbour (Papua New Guinea) on the other hand is doing terribly (1% jabbed). Lots of distrust and vaccine hesitancy and little to no infrastructure to support their rollout. Going to be a challenge.

Is the Australia goal, in terms of opening up the border, to get to 80% of eligible people vaccinated or 80% of the population? Our total population for the first jab is 65%, I think it is going to be a massive struggled to get close to 80% without the age for eligibility dropping to 5. As you say, Australia's first jab % is slightly behind NZ's I wonder if vaccination rates will start to fall away a bit soon like ours has.

[Impmk2]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is the Australia goal, in terms of opening up the border, to get to 80% of eligible people vaccinated or 80% of the population? Our total population for the first jab is 65%, I think it is going to be a massive struggled to get close to 80% without the age for eligibility dropping to 5. As you say, Australia's first jab % is slightly behind NZ's I wonder if vaccination rates will start to fall away a bit soon like ours has.

International (as well as internal) borders are unclear. NSW has made noises about opening for international flights by the end of the year (that'd be with 85-90% of 16+), but there's no solid plan there at least that I've heard. I was reading this morning the airline industry is also skeptical of that target.

I was doing some back on the envelope calcuations last night and I think the best Australia can realistically hope to hit currently would be ~72.5% total population. That'd be approx 85% of adults vaccinated and 70% of 12-15s. I think we're actually on track for that which isn't bad.

No way to get close to 80% total without some really harsh vaccine passport system to get 95%+ of adults vaccinated (isn't off the table looking at what NSW & Vic are doing), or vaccinating the under 12s.

[The Anti-Targ]

The NZ govt wants 90% eligible population, and I think that is including the eventual inclusion of 5-12 year olds as eligible for vaccination. At that level the govt believes there is adequate population coverage to mean hospitalisation rates will be managable and deaths will be minimal. But I think if things are going too slowly they will drop the target to 85% of the eligible population.

[Padraig]

More on the Pfizer v Moderna discussion.  There actually is a suggestion that there may be a bigger gap between the 2 for older people.  But more research needed.

Quote

The strongest difference in performance was among the clinic health care workers above 55 years old, previously infected or not. Those who received Moderna had 3.56 times more antibodies than those receiving Pfizer/BioNTech, according to Heylen. She is cautious to draw any conclusions, but based on these findings, she says that further research into whether any differences in performance are clinically relevant would be “very interesting.”

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/moderna-vs-pfizer-is-there-a-best-mrna-vaccine-69229

And Sanofi has halted work on its mRNA vaccine.  It has another (further developed, protein based) vaccine in Phase 3 tests, which continues, so its not a disaster.  At the same time, the more pharma companies researching options, the more potential that exists (and Sanofi has the resources to do a lot in this area).  Sanofi is going to focus on the flu instead with its mRNA tech.

Quote

The decision to drop clinical development of a shot based on mRNA, or messenger RNA, acquired as part of its takeover of Translate Bio, came despite positive Phase I/II study interim results announced on Tuesday where participants' blood readings showed a strong immune reaction.

But Sanofi said the read-out encouraged it only to pursue the technology as a potential vaccine against influenza and other diseases, giving up on the area of COVID-19 because of the strong market presence of the two approved mRNA shots.

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210928-france-s-sanofi-halts-work-on-mrna-covid-vaccine-amid-rivals-success

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

12 minutes ago, Padraig said:

More on the Pfizer v Moderna discussion.  There actually is a suggestion that there may be a bigger gap between the 2 for older people.  But more research needed.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/moderna-vs-pfizer-is-there-a-best-mrna-vaccine-69229

And Sanofi has halted work on its mRNA vaccine.  It has another (further developed, protein based) vaccine in Phase 3 tests, which continues, so its not a disaster.  At the same time, the more pharma companies researching options, the more potential that exists (and Sanofi has the resources to do a lot in this area).  Sanofi is going to focus on the flu instead with its mRNA tech.

https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210928-france-s-sanofi-halts-work-on-mrna-covid-vaccine-amid-rivals-success

They should get other biotech companies that have capacity to manufacture pfizer or modern under license. I assume there's a degree of that going on now. 

-

Some mixed news out of Alberta:

Eligible (12+) with at least 1 dose is at 83%. (70.6% of total)

Eligible (12+) with 2+ doses is at 73.8%. (62.8% of total)

12-19 year olds with at least 1 dose is above 75%. The age cohort with the lowest vaccination rate is 25-29 year olds at 71.9% with at least 1 dose. 

In a month or two, we might get close to 85% fully vaccinated with some parity among eligible age cohorts. 

The Bad news:

21,307 active cases with 265 of those in the ICU. Non-ICU and ICU hospitalizations are at all time highs. 

In the last few days, vaccinations have declined back to their pre-don't-call-it-a-vaccine-passport levels. We got a decent bump for a week or two but that appears to be it. Unless they start vaccinating children under 12, 70-75% is the best we're going to do by the end of the year for the population as a whole. 

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

45 cases today. Ouch. Bloomfield doesn't seem too upset though - says they've turned up some big households.

[The Anti-Targ]

Yes, but there are still 12 cases that have no immediately obvious link, so clearly not household contacts. That's more unlinked cases today than all of the cases announced yesterday. So while the govt is trying to keep people from spinning out with panic with a day like today, there are still concerns that cases are not fully being brought under control. I expect level 3 to be extended at least another week unless the rest of this week, until Monday are all sub-10 and every new case is an immediate household contact of an existing case.

IMPO it's circulating among the gangs and that will bleed out into the wider community where those gangs are based. Because gang types are not ones who are going to happily stay in their little bubbles.

Meanwhile from a peak of about 1.5% of the population per day getting the first jab we have dropped right back to <0.3% per day. This precipitous drop off and the uneven distribution of vaccination rates (highest region is at 85% first jab, lowest region is at about 65% first jab) does not bode well for reaching that opening up vaccination target by early next year. There has to be a push and approval for 5-11 year olds.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

10 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Meanwhile from a peak of about 1.5% of the population per day getting the first jab we have dropped right back to <0.3% per day. This precipitous drop off and the uneven distribution of vaccination rates (highest region is at 85% first jab, lowest region is at about 65% first jab) does not bode well for reaching that opening up vaccination target by early next year. There has to be a push and approval for 5-11 year olds.

Or better outreach to those populations where rates are lowest.

The regional parity you describe is better than ours. We have areas where the vaccination rate is below 50%. Every bit as bad as some of the southern states in the US. 

Looking here, Your gap between initial jabs and scheduled initial jabs has shrunk to about 2%, so you're definitely hitting resistance around 80% (eligible). That's a lot better than hitting a wall at 60-70%, which seems to be the pattern in many countries. Assuming initial Jab recipients all roll up their sleeves for a second, you'll be at 80% fully vaccinated in a little over a month. If first jabs fall to 1% per week, You should hit 85-90% for eligible New Zealanders in a couple of months.  

I am seriously considering moving there. 

On a personal note, I'm hearing a lot of ambulance sirens outside my apartment these days. 

[The Anti-Targ]

As long as you're double jabbed.

I think there is a bit of an artefact on the booked for a jab and had a jab gap. Now that it's basically a vaccination free-for-all there probably aren;t many people using the official booking system and people are just walking in to vaccination centres. Still the drop to 0.3% per day means the impetus to be vaccinated from the current outbreak has waned. 

There needs to be a big push for Maori and to a lesser extent Pacific Island people to get vaccinated. I think basic distrust of the govt has given anti-vaxxers a way in especially with Maori to sew even more seeds of doubt and mistrust. It is quite interesting that it is the younger age demographics among Maori who are not turning up to get vaccinated. The Maori people over 50 are not far off at being at parity for vaccination % as the non-Maori population.

Unfortunately what I would generally consider to be a culturally good thing, which is a resurgence of traditional Maori health practices, is also undermining uptake in vaccination as people misguidedly throw out mainstream health practices that would augment traditional health practices very well. So a too rigid adherence to traditional health practices is now looking to become detrimental to the health of that population if/when COVID gets out.

 

[Which Tyler]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/covid-patient-dies-after-antivaxxer-helps-him-leave-hospital/news-story/6efa90ef830df28ae0c7f468354f5b05?

 

Covid patient dies after anti-vaxxer helps him leave hospital

Heartbreaking footage shows a 67-year-old Covid patient being convinced to leave hospital by an anti-vaxxer two days before he died.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

33 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/covid-patient-dies-after-antivaxxer-helps-him-leave-hospital/news-story/6efa90ef830df28ae0c7f468354f5b05?

I saw that yesterday but I was too pissed off to post it. 

Joe McCarron  died on September 24. On that date, Ireland was averaging 4 Covid deaths per day. For the entire country. 

Apparently Mr. Gravegliu fancies himself as a kind of sovereign citizen. The incident is being investigated.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/senior-garda-appointed-to-lead-investigation-into-donegal-hospital-incident-1.4684246

 

[The Anti-Targ]

7 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/covid-patient-dies-after-antivaxxer-helps-him-leave-hospital/news-story/6efa90ef830df28ae0c7f468354f5b05?

 

 

 

That's not anti-vax, that's anti-medical care of any sort.

[Padraig]

13 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

I saw that yesterday but I was too pissed off to post it. 

Joe McCarron  died on September 24. On that date, Ireland was averaging 4 Covid deaths per day. For the entire country. 

Apparently Mr. Gravegliu fancies himself as a kind of sovereign citizen. The incident is being investigated.

Right.  Tragic.  I'm not sure what they can charge him with though.  Although, I would be curious to see how well his restaurant does going forward.  We have a high vaccination rate, so its not like he represents a significant segment of the population.

19 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

They should get other biotech companies that have capacity to manufacture pfizer or modern under license. I assume there's a degree of that going on now. 

You are right.  Seems to be happening.

https://fortune.com/2021/09/10/sanofi-biontech-mrna-covid-vaccine-frankfurt/

Interestingly, Pfizer (and a few other companies like Merck and Roche) are studying an oral drug for prevention of COVID-19.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-begins-study-covid-19-antiviral-drug-2021-09-27/

Quote

 It has started a large study testing its investigational oral antiviral drug for the prevention of COVID-19 infection among those who have been exposed to the virus.

The mid-to-late-stage study will test Pfizer's drug, PF-07321332, in up to 2,660 healthy adult participants aged 18 and older who live in the same household as an individual with a confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 infection.

That could be a big step forward, although, even if successful, i'm sure we are still a long way from having it publicly available.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

33 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Right.  Tragic.  I'm not sure what they can charge him with though.  Although, I would be curious to see how well his restaurant does going forward.  We have a high vaccination rate, so its not like he represents a significant segment of the population.

That or Mr. Gravegliu has the misfortune to cross paths with and inspired Irish man or woman; just as they're recalling the spirit and physicality of their ancestors for no particular reason. 

I'm not publicly wishing violence on the guy; I'm stating a fact. Even money says it'll get messy. If I was him, I'd consider changing my name and moving to another country. 

[Prince of the North]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

Right.  Tragic.  I'm not sure what they can charge him with though.  

Could some sort of unintentional/negligent homicide charge or, at least, reckless endangerment be appropriate in this case?  It most likely won't happen but it doesn't seem completely outside the realm of possibility here.     

[Zorral]

37 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

If I was him, I'd consider changing my name and moving to another country. 

He'd find large swathes of the US most welcoming.  Alas.