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Covid-19 #39: Shooting the Messenger


Fragile Bird

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6 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

The Northwest Territories now has the 8th highest infection rate in north America. This is the first time a Canadian province or territory has cracked the top 10 to my knowledge. 

Nope. When schools got out in the Yukon they were #1 for a week or so. Such a small population, and kids graduating from high school triggered a lot of cases.

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2 hours ago, Ormond said:

I think what is new is that they are extending their policies about COVID vaccine information to misinformation about any vaccine for any disease -- for example, they should now be removing content that claims that vaccines cause autism, or that influenza vaccines are created by lizard alien shapeshifters, etc. 

Took them long enough. Meanwhile, absolute fuckwit Zuckerberg still isn't willing to manage and moderate Fuckbook correctly and that shithole is still filled with covidiots, dumbfuckitty videos and posts, and reporting them does jackshit. Sadly, it's still too difficult to sue FB for their absolutely ludicrous and loathsome behaviour during the whole pandemic.

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19 cases in Auckland again.

The ethnic structure of the Auckland outbreak is extremely noticeable. The initial outbreak on the North Shore was across all ethnic groups, then it got into a Pacific Island Church group, and turned things highly Pasifika... but that has long since cleared up. The long tail of this outbreak is Maori, with some 80% of today's cases being Maori.

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53 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Nope. When schools got out in the Yukon they were #1 for a week or so. Such a small population, and kids graduating from high school triggered a lot of cases.

Higher than the Americans?

Edit. You're right. The Yukon's spike came in late June; just before the 4th wave hit the US. They managed to sneak it in there by a few weeks. 

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We've basically reached (for first shots) what would have been pretty much herd immunity levels if the whole world had kept a reasonable lid on the virus and we were still dealing with strains not too epidemiologically different from the OG virus. But alas we are still a long way from being able to say our vulnerable populations are reasonably protected from the disease we see today. At the start of the year I was very confident in expecting that we would be totally open for business and travel by December. We will be doing very well to be at that point by the middle of next year.

55 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

19 cases in Auckland again.

The ethnic structure of the Auckland outbreak is extremely noticeable. The initial outbreak on the North Shore was across all ethnic groups, then it got into a Pacific Island Church group, and turned things highly Pasifika... but that has long since cleared up. The long tail of this outbreak is Maori, with some 80% of today's cases being Maori.

And the tragedy of that is the much lower rate of vaccination among Maori. In Auckland where the virus is circulating Maori are being vaccinated at about 69% of the rate that all others ethnicities collectively are being vaccinated.

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Shit:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-complete-carnage-reports-of-huge-gathering-in-west-auckland/OURNRWTZY7WN7SUDM4GXECS4PE/

This has the potential to cost Jacinda Ardern the next election. The country feels held hostage by criminals, and unless the Government takes action fast... there are going to be problems.

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28 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Shit:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-complete-carnage-reports-of-huge-gathering-in-west-auckland/OURNRWTZY7WN7SUDM4GXECS4PE/

This has the potential to cost Jacinda Ardern the next election. The country feels held hostage by criminals, and unless the Government takes action fast... there are going to be problems.

The only way to effectively deal with it is to engage the gang leadership and try to get some cooperation with keeping the spread under control. They are not going to arrest and intimidate them into compliance. But cooperating with "criminals" is ripe for opposition parties to attack and use populist rhetoric to turn the electorate against the govt. Electorally speaking the govt is in a no win situation. Possibly their best PR bet is to doggedly stick to the "we are taking a public health first approach the disease does not care whether you are in a gang or not, or whether you live in a home or not." But they have to be seen to be doing something other than stick with the general messaging. What they should have done is set up a drive through testing and vaccination tent at the cemetery entrance. 

However, the electorate will forget about it IF the govt can steer the country to a low rate of disease and open borders some time next year. The winning and losing of the next election, in terms of COVID having an influence, is really about the vaccination rate, and how quickly it can get to opening up levels.

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It's abundantly clear that the gangs aren't co-operating, no matter the outreach. And given that everyone else is complying with the rules, this is a godawful situation.

Opening up isn't a function of the vaccination rate alone - it's a function of the expected death toll from opening up. If the Government decides that an end to border closure means 3000 deaths a year (even with as many vaccinations as we can send out), it isn't opening up. We need the data from the Northern Hemisphere Winter (and Australia) first anyway.

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At some point in the next few days hopefully the UK should go through 90% (89.8% last time I checked) 16+ having had first vaccine. But that's as far as we are going to get as the numbers now getting first vaccine are so low. This is a far higher figure than I thought we would ever reach with such a dumb population. 

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1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

At some point in the next few days hopefully the UK should go through 90% (89.8% last time I checked) 16+ having had first vaccine. But that's as far as we are going to get as the numbers now getting first vaccine are so low. This is a far higher figure than I thought we would ever reach with such a dumb population. 

We’ve been stuck between 55-60% for three months. Speak of a dumb population :dunno: 

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3 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

We're at 54% of adult population (and cca one million of unused doses). Seriously, @BigFatCoward - 90% is a damn good number ;)

Yeah, it surprised me since so many people were so anti when vaccines were first mooted. But maybe that was just a case of loud people get most attention. 

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We're at 92% of the 65+ ~88% of the 50+ (hey that's me!) single jabbed. So the most vulnerable age demo is pretty much vaxed for those who have the choice to be vaxed and took it. What's left over will be those who can't or who refuse. We've still got to protect the can'ts from the c... so the other age demos need to catch up.

7 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

It's abundantly clear that the gangs aren't co-operating, no matter the outreach. And given that everyone else is complying with the rules, this is a godawful situation.

Opening up isn't a function of the vaccination rate alone - it's a function of the expected death toll from opening up. If the Government decides that an end to border closure means 3000 deaths a year (even with as many vaccinations as we can send out), it isn't opening up. We need the data from the Northern Hemisphere Winter (and Australia) first anyway.

Which is derived from the vaccination rate and the vulnerability to hospitalisation and death of those not vaxed. So it still comes back to vaccination as the most important factor.

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Good news announced in this morning's papers regarding the Merck/Ridgeback anti-viral Molnupiravir.  It looks like it has real efficacy in improving outcomes, can be administered orally, and looks like it will be available this winter.  While not at ALL a substitute for the on-going vaccination campaign, if the data hold up, it's another promising sign for the cost/benefit analysis for resuming public life.

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