Luzifer's right hand Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 We exceed 40k new cases today here in Austria. I wonder if we will hit 100k before this wave is over? The test system has been overwhelmed in parts of Austria and I dunno if there is enough capacity if tests positivity gets that high. Non-ICU hospitalisations are rising but ICU hospitalisations are still coming down from our delta wave. I did see some nice Warhammer memes. Our current chancellor is called Nehammer. In France they just busted a group that faked 62k vaccine certificates. France is at least trying to fight these groups effectively. I had troubles finding an english language website though. Https://gazettengr.com/vaccine-certificate-fraudsters-syndicate-busted/ Here they just uncover cases by accident. But I have seen reports that the french police also checks COVID-19 measures pretty diligently (at least for my Austrian standards). Nice to see that not all countries have capitulated in the fight against the anti-measure faction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 https://www.vox.com/22894978/covid-19-vaccine-lives-saved-deaths-avoided-omicron-chart Quote .... The question is, how do we figure out how many deaths were avoided? Scientists have modeled a world without vaccines and found some surprising answers. From the start of the US vaccination campaign through the end of November 2021, Covid-19 vaccines prevented about 1.1 million deaths and 10.3 million hospitalizations in the United States, according to estimates by the health care foundation The Commonwealth Fund. Even without counting the continued impact of the omicron variant in 2022, it’s a stunning effect that presents a different side to the story of the pandemic. Covid-19 has taken a terrible toll, as the graph of Covid-19 deaths shows in blue. But estimates of the potential death toll, in red, suggest that vaccines averted a catastrophe. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 hours ago, Which Tyler said: Apologies if this has already been posted and I've missed it. 2 studies this week on long covid, I think I saw the other one here, but I'm not confident in that. Similarly, New Scientist reported that high viral loads is linked to long COVID. And since vaccination generally reduces viral load, it's all quite consistent. Quote A separate study by Yapeng Su at the Institute for Systems Biology in Seattle and colleagues has identified a set of four factors that, together, appear to increase the risk of long covid. Having a high viral load and autoantibodies – those that attack the body’s own cells and tissues – as well as a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and reactivation of the Epstein-Barr virus are linked to long covid, whether the initial infection was mild or severe. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-third-wave-sees-continued-ethnic-disparities-in-deaths/ Greece and the UK both seemed to experience similar Omicron waves for whatever reason. After a big drop in cases, they seem to have now stabilised at a rather high level. Might be because of the recent removal of restrictions? Or the arrival of the second Omicron variant? Disappointing either way, as I was hoping we'd get to a much lower level. Hospitalisations are a better measure now but cases still give you an indication on where hospitalisations will get to. We'll see do other countries follow. But places like Spain and Italy have only just peaked (seemingly). Reaching a peak has been slower than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 29 minutes ago, Padraig said: Greece and the UK both seemed to experience similar Omicron waves for whatever reason. After a big drop in cases, they seem to have now stabilised at a rather high level. Might be because of the recent removal of restrictions? The Uk has seen a drop in cases in pretty much all age groups, except for the very youngest, almost certainly caused by kids going back to school. This kind of explains why cases didn’t keep on falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkess Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We're almost back to pre-Omicron case levels here in Chicago. This was our 5th peak and it's interesting looking at the data--this one much higher than previous peaks (in cases and in hospitalizations, though in the middle for deaths) but also much narrower in time. Wish our vaccination rate was a bit better (only 75% of adults completed) but at least things seem to be getting back under control. One does feel like this is never going to end though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Apparently Denmark is ending basically all control measures on Monday, just mask requirements in a few situations. Seems like they've assessed that their health system and manage and being the cost/benefit of substantial public health measures don;t stack up any more. Might be premature, but probably for pretty much every country when the omicron wave is confirmed with a good degree of certainty to be well off the peak it's time to move to minimal control measures. Our omicron wave is just about to get started, so we'll be watching how things go with Denmark and others to see when / whether to button off with public health measures. Once again, grateful for most of the world showing us what to / not to do so we can take some lessons before we make decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/26/2022 at 2:31 PM, The Anti-Targ said: Riiiight, a bit like how Milo was one of the good ones despite being gay. Though am I right in understanding they claiming to be not gay now? I think I read something a while ago, could be mistaken as I try to keep anything associated with them out of my field of view. Same thing with Blair White. A lot of bigots enjoy her content because she attacks other trans people as being dangerous predators, constantly reiterates that it’s fine to declare trans women as not real women, and affirms that it’s reasonable for white Christian authoritarians(like John Doyle) to want to castrate and imprison her. If a more explicitly eugenics movement arrives there will be a couple people with sever disabilities or hereditary birth-defects that the movement would push in the spot light to show the movement isn’t hateful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: Apparently Denmark is ending basically all control measures on Monday, just mask requirements in a few situations. Denmark's figures are insane. Over 5% of the population was infected over the last 7 days. And it keeps rising. They have an 18% positivity rate, so they are probably missing a reasonable number of people too (although, they are doing better than other countries). Their COVID hospitalisations have never being higher but we are back to the same question around being hospitalised with COVID v hospitalised because of COVID. Furthermore, ICU usage has been on a steady decline there for the last month. The fatality rate has been flattish though. Not low but almost half its peak. Denmark is one of the best countries in the world for boosters, so that helps too. Quote The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which is dominant in Denmark, appears more contagious than the more common BA.1 sub-lineage, Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said on Wednesday in a national address. "There is no evidence that the BA.2 variant causes more disease, but it must be more contagious," Heunicke told a news conference. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ba2-subvariant-omicron-appears-more-contagious-than-ba1-denmark-says-2022-01-26/ France's COVID numbers were almost as crazy but they may have finally peaked. Only the Netherlands and Norway have really low fatality rates in Europe at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 A bit of mean reversion going on in my home country. One year ago (Jan 28, 2021), Australia posted 0 deaths due to COVID, while the UK recorded 1,242. Today Australia reported 98 deaths, with the UK in at 277. Those latter numbers are almost exactly what you would expect based on the countries' relative populations. Of course, Aus is still a strong pandemic performer, but perhaps we need to confine that performance assessment to 2020 and the first half of 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 That next, more contagious strain has been detected in NYC. Just as our numbers were rapidly declining. But thanks to Typhoid Mary/Sarah Palin and So Many Others and this new one, one can fear we're likely to be back by mid-February to where we were by the end of December w/ wildly rising numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I can't fucking believe it, I just got a torch-wielding mob shouting "Resistance!" below my window right now. I might add it's 8 pm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Toth said: I can't fucking believe it, I just got a torch-wielding mob shouting "Resistance!" below my window right now. I might add it's 8 pm here. I can watch them every Wednesday and weekend here if I go into the inner city. I have been delayed a few times because of them as they like blocking the tramline. I have seen unmasked policeman smoke with some of the protestors. That is the world we live in. They tried to get into a daycare here recently because they saw kids with masks. The police only started doing things after watching them scaring kids for half an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said: They tried to get into a daycare here recently because they saw kids with masks. The police only started doing things after watching them scaring kids for half an hour. These guys here (that now thankfully moved on) apparently already brought their kids with them. -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 hours ago, Padraig said: Denmark's figures are insane. Over 5% of the population was infected over the last 7 days. And it keeps rising. They have an 18% positivity rate, so they are probably missing a reasonable number of people too (although, they are doing better than other countries). Their COVID hospitalisations have never being higher but we are back to the same question around being hospitalised with COVID v hospitalised because of COVID. Furthermore, ICU usage has been on a steady decline there for the last month. The fatality rate has been flattish though. Not low but almost half its peak. Denmark is one of the best countries in the world for boosters, so that helps too. There is no reason to believe we won't follow the same trajectory as Denmark, they have a comparable population and a slightly better vaccination rate. Though they have had more exposure to COVID-19 over the last couple of years, which will have moderated omicron to some degree. I'll be going for my booster in the next couple of days. We'll really be a test of whether vaccination immunity only is enough to keep omicron from causing a lot of severe illness. I know some 60+ and 70+ anti-vax people, I worry for them, because even though I've lost respect for them I don't want them to get severely ill or die. They are healthy though, so not carrying any risk factors into this wave other than age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said: I have been delayed a few times because of them as they like blocking the tramline. Interesting variation on the "tramway dilemma" you have there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhaenysBee Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 21 hours ago, Padraig said: Denmark's figures are insane. Over 5% of the population was infected over the last 7 days. And it keeps rising. They have an 18% positivity rate, so they are probably missing a reasonable number of people too (although, they are doing better than other countries). Does that count as high? We had 35-55% positivity rate this past week. Which indicates that we are identifying at best half, at worst a quarter of actual cases, that’s why our case numbers are below 20k. The real figure is most likely at least 40k per day. Where art thou herd immunity? Denmark has the highest tests/population rate in the whole of Europe. That’s why they would find such insane amount of cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 hours ago, Clueless Northman said: Interesting variation on the "tramway dilemma" you have there. Well the police could easily solve that like they do with climate/environmental activists, animal rights groups and pro refugee groups. Only recently members of an animal rights group got arrested for handing out flyers without blocking anything. Another person got arrested for filming said arrest. The police tends to lose trials that such behaviour causes that does not change it when it comes to groups they dislike (anti-factory farming groups might be the most hated group because we have a meat centric culture). But our far right enforcers support the anti-measure protests. Edit: To be clear I respect their right to protesting. I just would not mind it if the police started enforcing existing laws and protected at least children with the same spirit they break laws when groups they hate protest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 hours ago, RhaenysBee said: Does that count as high? We had 35-55% positivity rate this past week. True. 18% is not high. Its not low though. They are probably missing some cases but are still doing better than most, as you say. Denmark currently has 5 times more cases than Hungary on a per population, which strikes me as a lot. And its still growing there! On 1/28/2022 at 5:56 PM, Zorral said: That next, more contagious strain has been detected in NYC. Just as our numbers were rapidly declining. The hope (!) might be that so many people got the original Omicron recently, that this variant will not lead to the same crazy levels of infection. But it definitely wouldn't help and it may stop infection dropping to really low levels. At least it doesn't seem to be anymore lethal than the original. Although, a lot of money are still dying. I'm beginning to think that most countries in the West wouldn't have much in the way of restrictions left by the end of February. Of course, some countries haven't had much in the way of restrictions for a long time. It's all left to the individual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, Padraig said: most countries in the West wouldn't have much in the way of restrictions left by the end of February. Of course, some countries haven't had much in the way of restrictions for a long time. It's all left to the individual. They will have to pry my masks from my cold dead face before I give it up. So there! One of my incredibly stoopid nieces went to Miami, and took a cruise. She immediately got sick upon boarding -- with the flu, and spent most of it in her cabin. She says it was the flu anyway. There's a splendid Dior exhibit at the Brooklyn Museum, that closes by -- mid/end February? -- that I want to visit so much. I was hoping it could happen by mid-month, but with all the Typhoid Sarah Palins running around ... and the nurses, enabled by a NY cop -- who just got busted for selling fake vaccination cards, to the tune of making themselves a sweet 1 and half million bux. Well, I sure ain't going to Brooklyn today. It's a blizzard, with winds gusting to hurricane strength and the snow still falling, which it has been doing since early in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhaenysBee Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 13 minutes ago, Padraig said: Denmark currently has 5 times more cases than Hungary on a per population, which strikes me as a lot. And its still growing there! I’m pretty sure Hungary has that many cases too they are just not identified. At this point I have more acquaintances who had or are having covid than not. My dad has covid, my grandma had what nearly certainly was covid, as dad is likely to have caught it from her, which indicates that when my aunt, uncle and cousin were ill, they all had COVID too. It’s not impossible that sister’s 3 day migraine was covid as well that she got from my dad. Half my work team has covid or is a direct contact and my friends either had Covid themselves or have a family member who currently has covid. Virtually everybody I know has covid or has someone who has covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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