Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 We’re past 20 pages. New thread. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has impressed the hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Lord Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 In the last thread, you asked what has gone well for Putin. 1. He's found some people to lock up and keep an eye on in Russia (those who protest). 2. He's managed to kill off a bunch of people who won't do what he tells them to do (Ukrainians). And he's still filthy rich/unchallengeable. Win-win-win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 What’s the situation in Mariupol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Maybe Putin expects an attack by NATO. Keeping his best forces away from the front and using conscripts would make sense if he expects NATO air strikes. Russian hardware has not done well against US+allies air superiority in the past 30 years and this time the people on the ground would support NATO too. It is not like I expect that to happen but Putin might expect it. Anyways I went to an anti war protest today and I felt that Ukrainians there were glad about anyone who increased the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 While there's no harm in digesting and discussing the news from Ukraine, I do encourage everyone to do a little more and support the victims of this unchecked aggression. Give a little to the charities saving lives in the area: I suggest MSF https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/countries/ukraine But many others are also raising money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 27 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said: It is not like I expect that to happen but Putin might expect it. He doesn't have to expect it to think he should nonetheless be prepared for it, tbf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Some eyewitness reports suggesting that TOS-1 Buratino missile systems have crossed the border in Ukraine. The Buratinos are primarily used to deploy thermobaric bombs, basically fuel air bombs which are the largest explosives in the inventory below tactical nuclear weapons. Using them would be a major escalation and would likely cause immense loss of civilian life if used in a city environment. Some suggestions that their use will be threatened if Ukraine does not surrender. ETA: I notice this was posted in the last thread. Also, the link Armando Iannucci posted turned out to be fake news. However, that led to an interesting financial deep dive on how much this is costing, and there seemed to be agreement that it might be ~$3 billion a day. It might explain why under 200 missiles have been fired, why Russia did not suppress AA and aerial forces and why it seems to have been trying to achieve its objectives so fast. Russia simply cannot afford a modern conflict against a resolute enemy for a protracted period of time. 7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: I believe that the situation is more serious than events suggest. People who are typically more supportive of the Russian side are quite puzzled about the direction of the events. Donnesk? Lugansk? Ok, fine, can be understood. Whole Ukraine? and then what? I'm looking for a tweet of some Russian oligarch calling Lavrov and Shoigu specifically to remove Putin as it becoming clear the man has gone nuts. But I found this instead. There was a French report a few days ago suggesting that Macron was "taken aback" during his lengthy meeting over the Long Table with Putin, and contrasted the sharp, canny and tough negotiator he's faced several times in the past (most notably in a face-to-face meeting in 2019) with the somewhat unfocused, rambling individual he met a couple of weeks ago who kept wanting to talk about historical trivia rather than the pragmatic interests of the day. There's also been some suggestions that Putin stewed on the possibility of an invasion during lockdown when international meetings were not taking place and in fact the general idea of an invasion might have solidified only during the collapse of Afghanistan, with him convincing himself the same thing would happen in Ukraine. He definitely looks much more weaker and less definitive than he used to. He slouched at a desk to deliver news rather than standing defiantly at a lectern. He is obviously older - he turns 70 this year - but it is enough to make you wonder if there is a health concern. Even the Chinese seem to be looking at him a bit askance when previously they seemed to respect his canniness and well-judged plays. Quote I have a terrible thought. Do we have any idea of the preconceived notions regarding the level of quality of the Russian troop formations sent across the Ukrainian border? What if Putin wants us to sympathize with Ukraine? What if he wants us to see the Russian army as inept? What if he wants public pressure to intervene and support Ukraine militarily? What if he’s holding back… on purpose? It is weird that Russia is using one-year conscripts in front-line combat operations, but then the size of the operation is so huge using them might be necessary, especially if the attacks in the east are primarily designed to draw off support from Kyiv whilst more experienced troops go in there. Although it's worth reiterating that a drawback of Putin's restrained use of troops in Georgia, Crimea and Syria is that it gives his front-line forces relatively little combat experience. Apart from some combat pilots and special forces, Russia's average soldier's recent combat experience is rather less than that of an American soldier's, and most of NATO's armies are well-trained, professional forces. I don't think Putin wants Russians to be seen as inept, and it's pretty pointless as a smokescreen anyway. Quote Keeping his best forces away from the front and using conscripts would make sense if he expects NATO air strikes. It is notable that neither the T-14 Armata nor the Su-57 stealth fighter have been deployed to Ukraine (and you'd sure as hell notice the Armata, it's basically a real-life Mammoth Tank from Red Alert). A good reason is that the Armata has not been deployed is that Russia only has 100 of them and that's all they're probably ever going to build, because they are so advanced that Russia cannot actually afford to build or deploy them in significant numbers. The SU-57 will probably be used much more commonly (it needs to, otherwise Russia's entire air force could be taken out by ten F-35s over a lazy afternoon) but only a dozen are in service and one getting blown out of the sky over Ukraine would be a major embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fury Resurrected Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 If wars could be won by inspiring rhetoric and snappy clap backs Zelenskiy and the Klitschkos would be invading Russia by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said: If wars could be won by inspiring rhetoric and snappy clap backs Zelenskiy and the Klitschkos would be invading Russia by now He’s standing with his people. He’s leading from the front. I’m impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Ive been banned from fb for a few days for saying someone should do something to someone. At a pro Ukraine rally now, here in Prague. Want to cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fury Resurrected Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: He’s standing with his people. He’s leading from the front. I’m impressed. One of his most important jobs for morale right now are these optics and he’s definitely striking the right chord on that. Raising his profile internationally in this way can also do a lot to put pressure on other governments. He’s absolutely winning the media war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 People putting names and faces to those being killed. On the other hand, Meduza (a Russian-language site out of Lativa) has some interesting accounts from the families of Russian conscript soldiers who have been sent - in some cases at very short notice and, under Russian law, illegally, to the front line in Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Speaking of ammunition, the US is sending additional $350M in assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total to about $1B since last year (a bit confusing since Pelosi said something about 600M yesterday, but she may have been talking about the aggregate since 2021). Also speaking of ammunition, Germany is removing a block on sending 400 RPGs (block because of their policy of not sending arms to war zones); kinda weird that it is through the Netherlands, but they still have a veto on it because thats where the RPGs originated from? European rules are so confusing to me sometimes. (Edit: Netherlands is where they are shipped from, but if I got this correct, Germany sold them to Finland who sold them to Estonia who wanted to send them to Ukraine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoannaL Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 17 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Speaking of ammunition, the US is sending additional $350M in assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total to about $1B since last year (a bit confusing since Pelosi said something about 600M yesterday, but she may have been talking about the aggregate since 2021). Also speaking of ammunition, Germany is removing a block on sending 400 RPGs (block because of their policy of not sending arms to war zones); kinda weird that it is through the Netherlands, but they still have a veto on it because thats where the RPGs originated from? European rules are so confusing to me sometimes. (Edit: Netherlands is where they are shipped from, but if I got this correct, Germany sold them to Finland who sold them to Estonia who wanted to send them to Ukraine) Yes, Germany has a rule that the weapons they sell may not be resold into warzones (so they only sell with the right to veto reselling).This is a major shift in policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Quote Thermobaric bomb launchers moved into Ukraine Holy Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 49 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Speaking of ammunition, the US is sending additional $350M in assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total to about $1B since last year (a bit confusing since Pelosi said something about 600M yesterday, but she may have been talking about the aggregate since 2021). My big question (which will presumably not be answered publicly ever so as to keep the info from Russia) is how quickly can that assistance actually get to Ukraine? Every hour counts for them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Reports right now are that the Russian forces in Donbas have achieved a breakthrough at Volonovaka, north of Mariupol - after their previous push from the Donbas front line west to the outskirts of Mariupol on the coast. Farther west on the coast, the Russian forces out of Crimea have either taken or besieged Melitopol to bypass it, and now advanced east to Berdiansk. Unclear how long Mariupol can hold out. They seem to be holding against the attack coming from Donbas in the east, but they might get flanked either from Volonovaka to the north of Berdiansk to the west.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 A fairly big geopolitical change that j didn't expect- almost every European country is on board with kicking Russia out of swift. Italy and Cyprus are the latest I saw. In addition, Germany is now supplying arms to Ukraine in another reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 The lower image is from 2016, but has obviously been doing the rounds again in the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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