Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust

[Celestial]

54 minutes ago, Toth said:

 

- Putin's speech branding Wagner as traitors, calling up his allies, his fleeing to St. Petersburg and the frantic (and very poor) fortification of Moscow makes the appearance that Putin took the threat of loosing Moscow very seriously and his apparent walking back on his very strong and very charged condemnation of Prigozhin makes him look horribly weak and impotent to do anything about stopping him. This, at least to me, completely invalidates any theory that this is a theater conducted by Putin. He would never agree to something that makes him look so impotent, because his strong law and order image is essentially the stuff that keeps him anchored to his chair

 

 

I have to ask: is there any reliable information that the bolded part actually happened, other than the twitter rumour mill?

If Putin did actually flee the capital, I think he's done for in the eyes of the Russian power structures, even if he returned immediately.

[Luzifer's right hand]

It is also possible that Prigozhin had reasons to believe that Putin had enough loyal forces near Moscow.

Also Putin never fled officially afaik. It is just as likely that he stayed and managed to get shit ready for the worst case while taking care of people who supported Prigozhin.

As far as conspiracy theories go I guess the one that claims that they got to his family is the most rational one.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Luzifer's right hand

[Maithanet]

I think the Prigozhin/ Shoigu power struggle was real.  Prigozhin then would talk to plenty of politicians and military people that someone "needs to do something", and they would enthusiastically agree.  But he couldn't afford to actually tell a whole bunch of people his plan, because he'd get betrayed.  So instead he kept things vague and deniable for both sides, but that is what burned him.  When the moment of truth came, a lot of people who were sympathetic to him nonetheless weren't ready to risk everything.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Maithanet

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

I wonder if Putin still thinks that the Ukraine War was a good idea. 

[Toth]

38 minutes ago, Celestial said:

I have to ask: is there any reliable information that the bolded part actually happened, other than the twitter rumour mill?

If Putin did actually flee the capital, I think he's done for in the eyes of the Russian power structures, even if he returned immediately.

Is it proven? No. But that his plane made a dash for is and it would fit Putin's paranoia.

And you would have to assume that anyone in the "Russian power structures" would care if he fled. The whole thing about an army marching up to the gates of Moscow unimpeded would technically be considered enough to end him in a world based on reason and logic.

[SpaceChampion]

If it was all a ruse, it seems like both Prigozhin and Putin were the only ones not aware of it.  Perhaps the objective was to get rid of them both, knocking Putin down a bit first, and complete getting rid of him some time in the next stage of whatever plan is happening.  Lowering respect for Putin in the eyes of the average citizen and those loyal to him would take time, and this would be a first step.

Most successful coups are conducted by Colonels, not Generals. 

I would not be surprised if some Wagnerites give Prigozhin the sledgehammer retirement plan for his betrayal.

[Derfel Cadarn]

2 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

If it was all a ruse, it seems like both Prigozhin and Putin were the only ones not aware of it.  Perhaps the objective was to get rid of them both, knocking Putin down a bit first, and complete getting rid of him some time in the next stage of whatever plan is happening.  Lowering respect for Putin in the eyes of the average citizen and those loyal to him would take time, and this would be a first step.

Most successful coups are conducted by Colonels, not Generals. 

I would not be surprised if some Wagnerites give Prigozhin the sledgehammer retirement plan for his betrayal.

Be interesting to kearn what Utkin’s reaction was.

[Maia]

54 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

When the moment of truth came, a lot of people who were sympathetic to him nonetheless weren't ready to risk everything.

And maybe that caused somebody else crucial for his operation to back down, so that Prigozhin had no choice but to accept a deal that gave him at least a miniscule chance of survival. He wasn't personally in command of the Moskow column, was he? He remained in Rostov. So, maybe whoever was directly in charge on the ground blinked or was bought or whatever. Historically, people are ready to do all manner of stupid things out of greed, fear, ambition, etc.  Of course, it usually ends badly for them, but not always.

[Zorral]

14 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Was it too soon for Prigozhin to realise that the Ukraine war is a lost cause for Russia and he was unlikely to reach the end of the war with his head attached, or his bank account full, or maybe both? So he had to do something to try to exit with both in a reasonable state of health.

The thing with mercenaries is they are only loyal to the paymaster. If Prigozhin can't pay them his troops aren't going to stick around to provide protective security just because he's a cool guy. So who's going to continue financing Wagner after this?

Prigozhin is a multi-billionaire, owning loads and loads of businesses and properties all over Europe and Africa, and probably South America too.  He owns a diamond mine complex in Central Africa, for instance.  He, unlike a feudal mercenary commander, doesn't have to worry about finding money.

In many senses, though Wagner is called a mercenary troop, it's very different from what those were in the middle ages and the Renaissance.  It was formally a part of Russia's official national military, but semi-autonomous under his command, the point being to do Russia's dirty violence coercion work in places like Africa, while providing Putin with deniability of responsibility from accusations of doing so from both the locals who they murder and rape and torture, and more generally from the 'West.'

[Zorral]

As we don't know anything about what happened, or why, or what is going on now, we don't even know what is going on with Prigozhin's troops.  Many are convicts ... did they sign loyalty oaths and enlistment papers into the Russian army as they were offered?  We do not know.  Did any go to Belarus?  Are they going to join the cadres in Africa?  These are who I would be most concerned with if I were a head of state -- head of any state.

Wagner is made up of far more than troops.

Prigozhin still has possession of very much including the troll farms, I would guess, despite their clusters of physical locations in Ukraine being bombed out. But you know, that kind of work can be done from anywhere as long as there's a laptop and internet connection.

What he's got Eric Prince wanted to have as well, but he got shot down by the US government.

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Zorral

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Prigozhin is a multi-billionaire, owning loads and loads of businesses and properties all over Europe and Africa, and probably South America too.  He owns a diamond mine complex in Central Africa, for instance.  He, unlike a feudal mercenary commander, doesn't have to worry about finding money.

In many senses, though Wagner is called a mercenary troop, it's very different from what those were in the middle ages and the Renaissance.  It was formally a part of Russia's official national military, but semi-autonomous under his command, the point being to do Russia's dirty violence coercion work in places like Africa, while providing Putin with deniability of responsibility from accusations of doing so from both the locals who they murder and rape and torture, and more generally from the 'West.'

Nope. Informally, pretty much so.

Formally, it is illegal in Russia to run a private military company. Period. 

Informal it more or less worked like you said, however you have to add how Wagner is financed. That runs through his multiple businesses. They get overprized goverment contracts formally for unrelated stuff. So Prigozhin owns a cleaning business, that cleans all the public buildings. And most famously is his catering company delivering food for the military. Which makes his pose about corruption within the military kinda funny. He gets a shit ton of money to deliver food, and they get served utter garbage. 

There were ideas a couple of years ago, to disband Wagner/integrate them into the military. I think the MOD pushed for that, but ultimately they decided to leave the structure as they are. Rest of your post is pretty accurate.

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[polishgenius]

19 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think the MOD pushed for that,

 

I think so too, mostly because that's literally what this insurrection was about. 

[Corvinus85]

32 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Prigozhin is a multi-billionaire, owning loads and loads of businesses and properties all over Europe and Africa, and probably South America too.  He owns a diamond mine complex in Central Africa, for instance.  He, unlike a feudal mercenary commander, doesn't have to worry about finding money.

In many senses, though Wagner is called a mercenary troop, it's very different from what those were in the middle ages and the Renaissance.  It was formally a part of Russia's official national military, but semi-autonomous under his command, the point being to do Russia's dirty violence coercion work in places like Africa, while providing Putin with deniability of responsibility from accusations of doing so from both the locals who they murder and rape and torture, and more generally from the 'West.'

Technically it is similar to some of those forces from the Renaissance period. Venice, especially, but also Milan and other Italian states would offer longer and longer terms of contracts for the condottieri to the point in the 15th century that their contracts were permanent, and eventually evolved into the state armies for those republics/duchies. I mentioned in the previous thread how the mercenary captain Francesco Sforza took over Milan from the Visconti. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 

I think so too, mostly because that's literally what this insurrection was about. 

There's a documentary over at arte.tv The Prigozhin Papers, they addressed the issue. It's probably still online or might even be on youtube. I watched it a couple of months ago, so details are a bit fuzzy. There they untangled his business network, what is doing what. Including that Fake News social media and newspaper campaign department (US election, and in Mali).

 

Found a youtube link.

 

This is the French version with Eng. subs. Quite interesting actually. 

 

[Maia]

41 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Prigozhin is a multi-billionaire, owning loads and loads of businesses and properties all over Europe and Africa, and probably South America too.  He owns a diamond mine complex in Central Africa, for instance.  He, unlike a feudal mercenary commander, doesn't have to worry about finding money.

But will he still own these places once Wagner gets incorporated into MoD? It all seems like mafia style sort of ownership, where as soon as you can't defend your "properties" with armed force, you lose them. They might pass directly to Russian state now or Putin or whatever.  Or local commanders might make themselves independant, particularly if Wagnerites in Russia got shafted in the deal, which they likely were.

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Maithanet]

Interesting thread, not sure if I believe it, but it sounds possible.  Her theory is that prigozhin was never attempting a coup, but a mutiny against Shoigu and the MoD.  Prigozhin was surprised and unprepared for Putin to declare him a traitor.  He had hoped to just show how serious he was about not having Wagner join the MoD.  But Putin overreacted, and so he made a drive to Moscow and accepted the (super crappy) deal that was offered to him.

 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

I think Prigozhin overestimated his influence with Putin and underestimated Shoigu's influence with Putin. 

[Knight Of Winter]

43 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Interesting thread, not sure if I believe it, but it sounds possible.  Her theory is that prigozhin was never attempting a coup, but a mutiny against Shoigu and the MoD. 

This theory presents Prigozhin as an utter dumbass (which frankly is not out of realm of impossibility) who thought Putin would quietly stand aside while he deals with Shoigu and MoD. And also to believe Shoigu's decret forcing Wagner to join regular army went without Putin's blessing.

46 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Prigozhin was surprised and unprepared for Putin to declare him a traitor

He definitely should have been prepared and unsurprised, for Putin declaring him a traitor was the most expected outcome of his actions.

 

All in all, this deal - while preventing bloodshed and quickly nipping the attempted coup in the bud - doesn't make either side look particularly good. For Prigozhin - his military group will either disband or join regular forces, his political influence is finished while he himself was sent to exile in Belarus. For Putin - offering amnesty for a rebellious group after calling them traitors and promising swift punishment doesn't sound like he was negotiating from a position of strength either, leaving serious doubts about how shaken his position within Kremlin currently is.