Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust

[Werthead]

There's been a lot of action on the front lines today, but hard to get good readings on it because everybody's been talking about the Leeroy Jenkins death march instead.

It does sound like the 1st Mechanized Battalion of Ukraine engaged and defeated the 3rd Battalion of the 57th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, clearing the western bank of the Siverskiy Donets-Donbas Canal and removing the last Russian forces in that area.

[karaddin]

There was indeed a plot twist right after I went to sleep and it was absolutely not one I saw coming.

It has been be that he was relying on more of the military joining him by the time he got to Moscow and it wasn't happening, but I thought he'd go down trying to win rather than accepting exile [and impending assassination] and throwing his men under the bus.

I guess with everyone relevant having already fled Moscow he wouldn't actually win by taking it if the rest of the military stayed hostile and would get ground down in a siege.

[Corvinus85]

The exile to Belarus is really weird to me. Will Lukashenko actually protect him from Putin's assassins? I highly doubt it. At this point I'm not even sure he's going to make it to the border (assuming he's heading that way already).

Why not exile to wherever in Africa he has property? 

[Tywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

The exile to Belarus is really weird to me. Will Lukashenko actually protect him from Putin's assassins? I highly doubt it. At this point I'm not even sure he's going to make it to the border (assuming he's heading that way already).

Why not exile to wherever in Africa he has property? 

I'm not sure the location matters. He's going to die and if they got to his family they could just get him to commit suicide. 

This is why you can't come at the king and miss. But in this instance he seems to have gotten to the castle doors and lost his will to shoot. What a shame. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[karaddin]

I guess he's just another big strong man with less of a spine than the comedian when push comes to shove.

[Mithras]

5 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Major war in Europe. Worldwide pandemic. Titanic claiming lives through hubris and lack of safety. Revolution  in Russia.

The 2020’s are playing the 1910’s greatest hits

And this time as farce.

[Gaston de Foix]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Paying off Prigozhin makes more sense than anything else… except Pirgozhin has to know he’s a dead man walking.  Money doesn’t spend well in Hell.

I agree, but (again) I assume he had a plan and/or a sufficient off-ramp with guarantees that he walked away.  One does not simply walk into Mo(rdor)scow without one.  

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

The exile to Belarus is really weird to me. Will Lukashenko actually protect him from Putin's assassins? I highly doubt it. At this point I'm not even sure he's going to make it to the border (assuming he's heading that way already).

Why not exile to wherever in Africa he has property? 

I think he will have enough dedicated troops around him to make it a (vicious) fight ,and Putin's first priority for a while will be consolidating power and reassuring the Russian public.  For sure, he'll have to avoid open windows for the rest of his life and I fully expect his death in mysterious circumstances.  But a few years from now. 

And the money that's been wired by Lushashenko to private accounts in Switzerland/Carribean/Africa etc. must be truly extraordinary.   It's not that complicated, folks.  By definition, Mercenaries risk their lives for money.  Prighozin took an extremely bold gamble and has profited enormously.  He claimed to be fighting for Wagner rank and file and he did secure some advantages for them.  But he looked out for No.1 as mercenaries do.  

[Maithanet]

Conspiracy theory I just made up.  Is it possible that Wagner used this time to steal a nuclear weapon in Rostov district, and that prigozhin will use that to guarantee his safety?  

[The Anti-Targ]

Was it too soon for Prigozhin to realise that the Ukraine war is a lost cause for Russia and he was unlikely to reach the end of the war with his head attached, or his bank account full, or maybe both? So he had to do something to try to exit with both in a reasonable state of health.

The thing with mercenaries is they are only loyal to the paymaster. If Prigozhin can't pay them his troops aren't going to stick around to provide protective security just because he's a cool guy. So who's going to continue financing Wagner after this?

Edited June 25, 2023 by The Anti-Targ

[Ran]

The 1420 channel very quickly got into the street and asked people "What's going on in Russia?" Very interesting range of responses:

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Lot of social media speculation that the coup was theatre, to reveal who was and was not loyal to Putin and to place Prighozhin in Belarus, where he can then move south for another attack on Kyiv. Was the charge to Moscow a rehearsal?

It’s unlikely, as it would mean Putin deliberately looking weak, potentially losing support from China/India etc, for a couple months until Wagner can make a lightning strike from Belarus to Kyiv. An easier way woukd simply have been to have had Prigozhin announce he was pukling his troops from the war and quietly set up camps in Belarus.

What is a concern are the nukes in Belarus. Did Belarus leader demand them as insurance against reprisals for either letting his country host Wagner, or worse, have Belarus army invade too?

Worth noting that Wagner basically looted those bases they took in Rostov.

Hopefully the coup was genuine and ended because it relied on the army en masse switching sides. But if I was Ukraine, I’f be beefing up northern defences and watching closely for an increase of military men arriving in Belarus.

[Gaston de Foix]

48 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Lot of social media speculation that the coup was theatre, to reveal who was and was not loyal to Putin and to place Prighozhin in Belarus, where he can then move south for another attack on Kyiv. Was the charge to Moscow a rehearsal?

It’s unlikely, as it would mean Putin deliberately looking weak, potentially losing support from China/India etc, for a couple months until Wagner can make a lightning strike from Belarus to Kyiv. An easier way woukd simply have been to have had Prigozhin announce he was pukling his troops from the war and quietly set up camps in Belarus.

What is a concern are the nukes in Belarus. Did Belarus leader demand them as insurance against reprisals for either letting his country host Wagner, or worse, have Belarus army invade too?

Worth noting that Wagner basically looted those bases they took in Rostov.

Hopefully the coup was genuine and ended because it relied on the army en masse switching sides. But if I was Ukraine, I’f be beefing up northern defences and watching closely for an increase of military men arriving in Belarus.

This would be a truly desperate ploy, and one that relied on absolute trust between Putin and Prighozin. 

As far as I know, India is not providing any support for Russia beyond buying oil and continuing economic relations (which is itself disgraceful and a betrayal of its values of ahimsa).   

I think the coup also stopped because of the threat of aerial bombing and fierce combat to take Moscow. 

[Toth]

 

[Ser Rodrigo Belmonte II]

53 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

This would be a truly desperate ploy, and one that relied on absolute trust between Putin and Prighozin. 

As far as I know, India is not providing any support for Russia beyond buying oil and continuing economic relations (which is itself disgraceful and a betrayal of its values of ahimsa).   

I think the coup also stopped because of the threat of aerial bombing and fierce combat to take Moscow. 

That's cause India is ruled by a criminal who's values are the opposite of ahimsa and who condones the wholesale slaughter of Muslims and anyone who opposes him is locked up...

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Lot of social media speculation that the coup was theatre, to reveal who was and was not loyal to Putin and to place Prighozhin in Belarus, where he can then move south for another attack on Kyiv. Was the charge to Moscow a rehearsal?

It’s unlikely, as it would mean Putin deliberately looking weak, potentially losing support from China/India etc, for a couple months until Wagner can make a lightning strike from Belarus to Kyiv. An easier way woukd simply have been to have had Prigozhin announce he was pukling his troops from the war and quietly set up camps in Belarus.

What is a concern are the nukes in Belarus. Did Belarus leader demand them as insurance against reprisals for either letting his country host Wagner, or worse, have Belarus army invade too?

Worth noting that Wagner basically looted those bases they took in Rostov.

Hopefully the coup was genuine and ended because it relied on the army en masse switching sides. But if I was Ukraine, I’f be beefing up northern defences and watching closely for an increase of military men arriving in Belarus.

Tinfoil moment: besides the above maybe Putin could try to scapegoat some disaffected Wagnerites for whatever crap Russia pulls off at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, just to avoid drawing NATO fully into the war. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

 

[Toth]

Okay, I slept a bit more about yesterday's events, read through some threads and... am still dizzy and confused. Something is not right and while I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories where incompetence is a sufficient explanation... But since Russia is dealing in plenty of both... well...

So what do we know:

- Prigozhin set this up long in advance, stoking hostility between Wagner and the MoD, personally blaming Shoigu for everything that goes wrong with the war, while notably portraying Putin as the innocent Czar who got deceived by his advisors

- Shoigu and Putin forcing Wagner to sign up at the MoD means effectively ridding Prigozhin of his control and his protection, making this the most likely reason for the coup being a desperation strike... except that Prigozhin giving in to this demand as part of the agreement pretty much sells out the individual Wagner soldiers and takes away Prigozhin's only shield. Which is effectively the most baffling thing about this whole event

- Prigozhin claimed there was a Russian missile strike against Wagner with thousands dead, but the video provided only showed a moderately roughed up forest camp and now he insists this whole thing was bloodless on both sides, so the initial suspicions about this being fake are almost guaranteed to be correct

- Wagner took Rostov with no resistance (which was understandable), took Voronezh with barely any resistance, shooting down a few attack helicopters that tried to harass them and there was some off-screen small arms fire audible, but the convoy barely stopped and was never even under threat by fighter jets. So that means either the Russian air force is completely and utterly disabled and we shouldn't be seeing any fighters anywhere else at the borders or in Ukraine, or... they were somehow colluding with Prigozhin and only the army's helicopter force didn't get the memo/was sacrificed to make it more believable

- Ahmat was tasked with clearing out Rostov of Wagner, but aside them posing in a traffic jam and one video of a couple of Chechen dudes getting disarmed, there is no evidence that either force even attempted to fight, making this whole thing even more suspicious

- Putin's speech branding Wagner as traitors, calling up his allies, his fleeing to St. Petersburg and the frantic (and very poor) fortification of Moscow makes the appearance that Putin took the threat of loosing Moscow very seriously and his apparent walking back on his very strong and very charged condemnation of Prigozhin makes him look horribly weak and impotent to do anything about stopping him. This, at least to me, completely invalidates any theory that this is a theater conducted by Putin. He would never agree to something that makes him look so impotent, because his strong law and order image is essentially the stuff that keeps him anchored to his chair

- the initial announcement of the agreement made it sound like Putin sacrificed Shoigu, essentially giving in to Prigozhin's demands... except that now the Kremlin denies that and the outcome, amnesty and exile of Prigozhin, no change to the MoD and Wagner having to become part of the Russian regular forces... makes it look like an utter defeat of Prigozhin even though he had an implausibly good shot at taking Moscow. I can't believe Prigozhin would sacrifice his life, becoming an almost certain target of Putin's petty wrath, out of the goodness of his heart and patriotic soul as to spare Russia from almost certain civil war

- it's also odd that this first announcement was first made by Belarus, then Wagner and only in the end there was a rather weak "Yeah, sure" statement by the Kremlin, making Putin look even weaker and an uncharacteristically small actor in the resolving of the situation.

This all for me means two likely explanations. The idiocy explanation and the conspiracy explanation.

In the idiocy explanation, Prigozhin's antagonism towards Shoigu was a bet on getting his job and climb up the ladder, but when Shoigu put things in motion to have Wagner taken away from him, Prigozhin panicked and made a mad dash for Moscow in a desperate shot for power while he still had some power to spare. Putin's strong condemnation, branding him as a traitor, came as a shock, as he still tried to keep that door open of just toppling Shoigu becoming the man behind Putin, but at this point he couldn't possibly turn back anymore. And even though he had a surprising amount of friends in the military, particularly in the air force, which meant he could march through unhindered, Prigozhin realized that he had no friends in the Kremlin and taking the city would in no way mean taking control of the country, so he foresaw Wagner getting ground down in a civil war and when Lukashenko offered him an out, he blinked and desperately took it, even though it meant backstabbing his loyal forces and his own demise in the foreseeable future as Putin rolled back even the smallest concessions that could have maybe been made to him, but by now Prigozhin had no choice but to nod and accept his utter defeat.

In the conspiracy explanation... Prigozhin had friends in both the military AND the Kremlin, with the latter approaching him and convincing him to do this elaborate theater in order to scare Putin, have him arrested as he attempted to flee the Moscow and force him to cede power to them in order to have them stop Prigozhin and stay in power, even though now he's a helpless figurehead. I know, it is quite far-fetched, but it is the only version of the story I can come up with where there is an explanation for that utter absence of serious fighting and that Prigozhin doesn't have to fear Putin's wrath despite having no securities as he slips away to let his Kremlin allies sort the mess out.

For now, I still go with the idiocy explanation, but if we see a massive shift in the Kremlin's decision-making from here on out (as in: actually making some decisions instead of keeping the war effort on blind autopilot) while at the same time see even less of Putin, then... I guess I will remain suspicious.

[Maithanet]

Toth - what if prigozhin recieved assurances of support within the military and Kremlin, but when he finally threw the dice and asked for support, they betrayed him (could be cowardice, prudence, or they were lying all along).

Then Prigozhin is outside Moscow in a position where he had nowhere near the strong position he expected.  He had no choice but to accept a terrible deal to avoid being ground down and executed.

That seems... plausible as an explanation for why he did what he did.

[Toth]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Toth - what if prigozhin recieved assurances of support within the military and Kremlin, but when he finally threw the dice and asked for support, they betrayed him (could be cowardice, prudence, or they were lying all along).

Then Prigozhin is outside Moscow in a position where he had nowhere near the strong position he expected.  He had no choice but to accept a terrible deal to avoid being ground down and executed.

That seems... plausible as an explanation for why he did what he did.

Sure, this could be a detail added to the idiocy explanation. Though in that case I wonder what those betraying allies would get out of throwing him under the bus? They'd just destabilize Russia for no apparent gain (at least none that they couldn't get by pulling through with the coup... after all, Prigozhin is not a politician, he would need some politicians eager to do the actual ruling.

Now you make me wonder whether Putin managed to successfully evade the conspirators/take them out and that's why Prigozhin had to give up. The king wasn't in the castle anymore and while he plausibly could have taken Moscow, there was no game plan for if Putin escaped. Mmh... but still, if that was the case, going down fighting would have been maybe more prudent rather than wait for the inevitable assassination, so we would be right back to Prigozhin lacking common sense.