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Ser Scot A Ellison Council Member

Ser Scot A Ellison

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Violent brawl breaks out at Michigan GOP committee meeting | The Independent

Ha, ha, ha, ha.   These folks are cray-zee!    :rofl:

"It was then that Mark DeYoung, chairman of the Clare County Republican Party, approached the door, saw someone flip him off through a small window, and opened it.

“He kicked me in my balls as soon as I opened the door,” Mr DeYoung said, adding that Mr Chapman ran at him and slammed him into a chair.

Mr DeYoung gave his account to the outlet over the phone from an emergency room where he said he was being treated for a broken rib.

For his part, Mr Chapman alleges that Mr DeYoung had swung at him and said: “I’ll kick your ass.” Mr DeYoung denies this happened."

They could make bank by selling video of this fight…

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Tywin et al. Council Member

Tywin et al.

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Whip and spurs or it don't happen.   

You've got to ease into it. One step at a time. A good dominatrix doesn't demand the whole thing from the jump. Training is necessary, especially when you find the mark you really want to embarrass. :P

 

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LongRider Council Member

LongRider

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You've got to ease into it. One step at a time. A good dominatrix doesn't demand the whole thing from the jump. Training is necessary, especially when you find the mark you really want to embarrass. :P

 

I'm done training ponies.  Perhaps you should do it.  

edt: of course I would want to embarrass those dopes, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. 

Edited by LongRider
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Kalbear Council Member

Kalbear

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I doubt it will matter. The Republican primary is a dumpster fire right now. Looking at the polls Trump still has a big lead, but in many he's fading, DeSantis has lost all his steam and the others are just nothing.

Just to be clear here this is all great news for Trump. Unlike the Dem primaries most Republican primaries are winner-take-all, regardless of how much you win by. If Trump gets 30%? He gets all the electoral votes. 

This is exactly how he managed to get such a commanding lead in 2016 as well despite the majority of Republican voters not actually voting for him. 

The last thing Trump wants is to have one actually strong opponent. 

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Tywin et al. Council Member

Tywin et al.

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Just to be clear here this is all great news for Trump. Unlike the Dem primaries most Republican primaries are winner-take-all, regardless of how much you win by. If Trump gets 30%? He gets all the electoral votes. 

This is exactly how he managed to get such a commanding lead in 2016 as well despite the majority of Republican voters not actually voting for him. 

The last thing Trump wants is to have one actually strong opponent. 

Who told all of you this in 2016? I'll hang up and wait. 

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Kalbear Council Member

Kalbear

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who told all of you this in 2016? I'll hang up and wait. 

538 did. Though I was mostly looking it up as a response to the Sanders folks saying how they could come back and beat Clinton despite it not working that way. 

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ThinkerX Council Member

ThinkerX

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who told all of you this in 2016? I'll hang up and wait. 

I was stating flat out six months before the general election that Clinton was in dire jeopardy of losing the election. Most of the posters here didn't think that possible until it happened. 

This time around...yes, Trump could be the GOP pick, but I have this strong suspicion his 2024 campaign is literally nothing but a scam. Even if it not, I don't see Trump (or DeSantis) winning the election.

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Gaston de Foix Council Member

Gaston de Foix

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Just to be clear here this is all great news for Trump. Unlike the Dem primaries most Republican primaries are winner-take-all, regardless of how much you win by. If Trump gets 30%? He gets all the electoral votes. 

This is exactly how he managed to get such a commanding lead in 2016 as well despite the majority of Republican voters not actually voting for him. 

The last thing Trump wants is to have one actually strong opponent. 

I was reading yday about the significant delay between IA, NH and SC primary.  Thinking about this, a few possibilities: 

1. Trump wins IA and NH.  Game over.  Most likely scenario.  

2. 2016 redux: Trump loses IA and comes back to win NH (or vice versa).  His odds are still better than 2016 but it depends on whether the anti-Trump field consolidates and picks his principal opponent (unlikely, because of vice-presidential aspirations but it's there). 

3. Trump loses IA and NH to same person (yes, yes, I know what the polls say).  SC becomes do or die for him.  If it's Haley or Scott this is their bet chance for a KO. 

4. Different non-Trumps win IA and NH.  Unless they are Scott or Haley, Trump remains the tallest flower in a field of short grass.  

Just writing this out makes it how difficult the non-Trump path is. 

The candidate needs to pull off an upset in Iowa.  The field needs to consolidate, fast, and candidates need to ignore their own self-interest in the VP nomination to support the non-Trump alternative. 

There is little evidence of that happening in Republican politics (as opposed to Dem politics, where everyone dropped out to support Biden after SC). 

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James Arryn Council Member

James Arryn

Posted
Posted
On 7/8/2023 at 4:57 PM, Martell Spy said:


Outrage as Republican says 1921 Tulsa massacre not motivated by race
Oklahoma superintendent Ryan Walters decried for comments on 1921 massacre in which hundreds were killed by white mobs

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/08/oklahoma-republican-tulsa-race-massacre

 

Lemme guess, it was really all about state’s rights?

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Fez Council Member

Fez

Posted
Posted

My dark horse (but certainly not the favorite) is Tim Scott. He's been going all in on Iowa so far, and while he is a distant 3rd he at least is showing signs of some real support unlike almost everyone besides Trump and DeSantis. If he can hone in on the evangelical vote enough, and capture the non-Trump vote away from DeSantis, that would at least position him to win Iowa if Trump fades a little bit. If did, and then he went on to win home-state South Carolina (probably only possible if Haley drops out) that sets things up pretty solidly for a two-person race going into Super Tuesday. And, much like we saw with Democrats in 2020, I suspect a bunch of the also-rans would drop out in advance of the day in that case.

Not saying it's likely. But I do see path for him at least, which is more than I can say about any of the others.

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Gaston de Foix Council Member

Gaston de Foix

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Fez said:

My dark horse (but certainly not the favorite) is Tim Scott. He's been going all in on Iowa so far, and while he is a distant 3rd he at least is showing signs of some real support unlike almost everyone besides Trump and DeSantis. If he can hone in on the evangelical vote enough, and capture the non-Trump vote away from DeSantis, that would at least position him to win Iowa if Trump fades a little bit. If did, and then he went on to win home-state South Carolina (probably only possible if Haley drops out) that sets things up pretty solidly for a two-person race going into Super Tuesday. And, much like we saw with Democrats in 2020, I suspect a bunch of the also-rans would drop out in advance of the day in that case.

Not saying it's likely. But I do see path for him at least, which is more than I can say about any of the others.

He is someone who is very good at politics.  The path for him to be Trump's VP (as opposed to Haley or RDS or any of the others) is also wide open.  

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Ser Scot A Ellison Council Member

Ser Scot A Ellison

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

I was stating flat out six months before the general election that Clinton was in dire jeopardy of losing the election. Most of the posters here didn't think that possible until it happened. 

This time around...yes, Trump could be the GOP pick, but I have this strong suspicion his 2024 campaign is literally nothing but a scam. Even if it not, I don't see Trump (or DeSantis) winning the election.

I wasn’t as confident as you were but I do remember criticizing the cackling delight that emerged here when Trump ran and then won the Republican nomination.  We are all damaged when the worst are nominated by the major parties whether it benefits the “other party” or not.

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LongRider Council Member

LongRider

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Lemme guess, it was really all about state’s rights?

Well, I was told that the fight was really about taxes, not slavery, no way.  None of that revisionist history, nope, nada. 
:rolleyes:

 

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The Anti-Targ Council Member

The Anti-Targ

Posted
Posted
On 7/10/2023 at 1:00 PM, LongRider said:

Violent brawl breaks out at Michigan GOP committee meeting | The Independent

Ha, ha, ha, ha.   These folks are cray-zee!    :rofl:

"It was then that Mark DeYoung, chairman of the Clare County Republican Party, approached the door, saw someone flip him off through a small window, and opened it.

“He kicked me in my balls as soon as I opened the door,” Mr DeYoung said, adding that Mr Chapman ran at him and slammed him into a chair.

Mr DeYoung gave his account to the outlet over the phone from an emergency room where he said he was being treated for a broken rib.

For his part, Mr Chapman alleges that Mr DeYoung had swung at him and said: “I’ll kick your ass.” Mr DeYoung denies this happened."

That must have been one hell of a kick.

On 7/10/2023 at 1:02 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I doubt it will matter. The Republican primary is a dumpster fire right now. Looking at the polls Trump still has a big lead, but in many he's fading, DeSantis has lost all his steam and the others are just nothing. Biden isn't in the greatest place, but they're even worse. my only fear is that Biden just comes across as appearing too old (which to be fair he is). 

Old, doddering and white seems like it's the new young, gifted and black.

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The Anti-Targ Council Member

The Anti-Targ

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

He is someone who is very good at politics.  The path for him to be Trump's VP (as opposed to Haley or RDS or any of the others) is also wide open.  

Wash your mouth out, the VP seat is Kari Lake's, and no other!

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