Ukraine 31: Icarus Edition

[Relic]

Just now, Werthead said:

Yeah, he's dead (apparently) and one of his doubles is going to take over until the back-channel politics play out and the new ruling faction becomes clear.

I am hitting that DOUBT button rather strongly.

Bummer, if true. Super nice guy. 

(shame its not true)

[Maithanet]

There have been at least 2 other major (ie many people talking about it as a credible possibility) Putin health scares since the war started.  I wouldn't give it any credence until something official comes out. 

[Corvinus85]

9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russian trench-troops are reporting a new problem:

 

Chernobyl Rats?

[mormont]

If Putin were dead, you absolutely could not keep it quiet. Just walking around Moscow would be impossible due to the tanks causing traffic jams and the danger of walking on the pavements in a hail of people falling from windows.

[ThinkerX]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Russian trench-troops are reporting a new problem:

Yeah, he's dead (apparently) and one of his doubles is going to take over until the back-channel politics play out and the new ruling faction becomes clear.

I am hitting that DOUBT button rather strongly.

That is one seriously impressive rodent. Makes the gun look like a toy. I wonder...maybe it is fake?

As to Putin...I seem to remember rumors of secret operations and health issues all year. That said, maybe we will see a tyrant replaced by a fake tyrant?

[Wilbur]

An excellent thread on the threat to democracy.

Click on me.

[Werthead]

Current estimates are of 4,000 Russian fatalities in the assault on Avdiivka so far, more wounded. Given the intensity of combat there, that may be an under-estimate.

Oleg Tsaryov, the pro-Russia Ukrainian "traitor" MP who was living in Crimea and was tapped as a possible ruler of a post-war Ukrainian vassal state, has been stabbed at his home in Yalta and is in critical condition.

Russia has begun transferring equipment and assets seized from Wagner to Chechnya, where Kadyrov is raising and equipping two new battalions. It looks like Putin is looking to Kadyrov to act effectively as Prigozhin's successor, which seems like very shaky ground to stand on.

Ukraine experimenting with micropilots for their drones:

Someone figured out WTF is going on with the ROUSes. Along the combat front, grain was not harvested because of the risk of extreme death, so rats and mice have gorged themselves to fuckwittery over the summer and are now looking for somewhere warm to ride out the winter, so have made a bee-line for the trenches. Both sides are reporting the situation is getting out of control.

[Bironic]

18 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

That is one seriously impressive rodent. Makes the gun look like a toy. I wonder...maybe it is fake?

As to Putin...I seem to remember rumors of secret operations and health issues all year. That said, maybe we will see a tyrant replaced by a fake tyrant?

23 hours ago, Werthead said:

Russian trench-troops are reporting a new problem:

 

I think it looks a bit like a muskrat... they do live in Ukraine... or maybe a Nutria, they do live in the danube river delta on the Ukraine-Romania border, not sure if they exist in Russian occupied Ukraine... Both species are roughly the size of the animal on the photo... I think if you look very carefully you can make out some webbing on the back feet of the animal(which would point to either a musk rat or a nutria since they are semiauquatic like beavers)

 

[Werthead]

Ukraine has deployed two battalions to Avdiivka to reinforce, including one that led the assault on Robotyne. They seem to be doing a good job of halting the Russian pincer movements around the town, although the numbers Russia has brought to bear on the battlefield are formidable.

Ukrainian forces have apparently secured partial control over Krynky, a settlement near the south banks of the Dnipro (actually a kilometre or two from the main river body). Russian counter-attacks are taking place, but Krynky is a sprawling settlement of houses and outhouses extending for seven kilometres along the river, allowing both defender and attacker to take shelter from drones, fortify defences etc.

Russian milbloggers warning that this looks like a shaping operation for a more serious assault across the Dnipro, and Ukraine cannot be allowed to put pontoons in place to allow heavy equipment to deploy into occupied Kherson Oblast. Others seem sceptical, suggesting it's a bluff to get Russia to transfer units from the Avdiivka or Tokmak fronts.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Werthead

[A True Kaniggit]

4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has deployed two battalions to Avdiivka to reinforce, including one that led the assault on Robotyne. They seem to be doing a good job of halting the Russian pincer movements around the town, although the numbers Russia has brought to bear on the battlefield are formidable.

The Russian state must have done one helluva job selling this war to the populace. 
 

A quick google search shows Russian deaths in Afghanistan were 15,000 in a ten year period.

[Bironic]

29 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

The Russian state must have done one helluva job selling this war to the populace.

They have increased salary for an ordinary soldier (not an officer) to more than 2000 dollars per month, average income in russia is 300-800 dollars a month. If you're wounded in action you get an additional 30000 and in case of death your relatives get 50000... that's a fortune for most russians (and even for a lot of non-russians!)...

The equivalent in the US-Military would be ca. 16000 dollars a month for a private...(they make around 21000 a year)

I think lots of americans would enlist then...

Edited October 28, 2023 by Bironic

[A Horse Named Stranger]

If you sell it as the great patriotic war 2.0, and you know how revered that generation of soldiers was/is...

Vladimir Loserovich is banging on about his old man's deeds during WWII, and he is marching with a picture of his father at the front of those memory marches (something he avoided pretty much before the invasion). So they are really busy hammering home the message of patriotic war 2.0.

[Werthead]

The Russian Central Bank has increased interest rates to 15%, which has triggered some major concerns in the Russian economy. The banks are ratcheting down hard on credit, and apparently some government agencies have been turned down for credit, leading to political interference in the running of the banks. The Russian economy is seriously creaking. The only problem is that it's unclear if something could snap decisively quite soon, triggering a run on the banks, or if it can stagger along as is for another couple of years.

[A True Kaniggit]

3 hours ago, Bironic said:

They have increased salary for an ordinary soldier (not an officer) to more than 2000 dollars per month, average income in russia is 300-800 dollars a month. If you're wounded in action you get an additional 30000 and in case of death your relatives get 50000... that's a fortune for most russians (and even for a lot of non-russians!)...

The equivalent in the US-Military would be ca. 16000 dollars a month for a private...(they make around 21000 a year)

I think lots of americans would enlist then...

$23,000 a year for E-1s. No need to exaggerate. 
 

But yes $16,000 a month would be one hell of an incentive.

Edited October 28, 2023 by A True Kaniggit

[Maithanet]

Of course, often the soldiers and thier relatives never get that money.  Officers pocket the soldiers salaries and many soldiers find themselves "off the books" one way or another, and thus their families get nothing.  A soldier can be reported for desertion when he is actually present, or just listed as missing when in fact he has been killed.  These sorts of things get a good bit of press, but it's hard to know how widespread it is.  Certainly some families are getting the payments, but not all.  

Edited October 28, 2023 by Maithanet

[Werthead]

Good news. A heroic Ukrainian defender taken prisoner in the retreat from Kherson has been rescued and is at liberty. Precise whereabouts at the moment, unknown.

[Werthead]

Meanwhile, Russian defectors from Tatarstan and other Russian regions have apparently become numerous enough to form a Siberian Battalion in the Ukrainian army.

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Good news. A heroic Ukrainian defender taken prisoner in the retreat from Kherson has been rescued and is at liberty. Precise whereabouts at the moment, unknown.

Unconfirmed reports indicate he has recruited a battalion of compatriots who are currently in Poland being trained by NATO advisors on how to effectively assault units of trench rats.

[Bironic]

18 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

$23,000 a year for E-1s. No need to exaggerate.

That wasn't my intention, I misremembered. Thanks for the correction.

16 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Of course, often the soldiers and thier relatives never get that money.  Officers pocket the soldiers salaries and many soldiers find themselves "off the books" one way or another, and thus their families get nothing.  A soldier can be reported for desertion when he is actually present, or just listed as missing when in fact he has been killed.  These sorts of things get a good bit of press, but it's hard to know how widespread it is.  Certainly some families are getting the payments, but not all.  

Corruption is rampant in Russia, I agree that the percentage of those actually getting the promised money is probably quite low. But even if you get only half of what you should get, it would still be a good salary. You can also not know in advance if you won't get paid, so for the more gullible,optimistic or desperate parts of the population its still a decent incentive to enlist.

Meanwhile independent online Russian media outlet Verstka has reported that drug abuse is rampant among russian soldiers in Ukraine, one source, a contracted soldier, claims that one in two or three soldiers uses them. The most common used drugs are Mephedron "salt", various amphetamines, Alpha PVP, Heroin, Barbiturates, Lyrica. In addition to those there is obviously also alcohol, Cannabis, Tobacco. Some of the drugs such as Heroin are reported to be very strong, often they are contaminated with all kind of substances making them even deadlier. According to Verstka it's very easy to get the drugs: you can get them from the locals, other soldiers or prorussian volunteers. For a considerable extra delivery to the trenches is possible. If you get caught you will be sent to the Storm Z bataillons which is equivalent to a death sentence. On the frontlines there is little to no control for alcoholism or other drug abuse. The amount of drug abuse cases in the russian military courts has risen as well (which might be due to the fact that there are more soldiers now).

Generally it's not a good sign for a military (or a society) if there is significant drug abuse. But some of the effects of these drugs are worse in a strict military sense than others. Opiates (Heroin), Lyrica, Barbiturates, Alcohol, Cannabis, alpha-pvp seemt to have almost exclusively negative effects on a fighting force. Amphetamines and similar stimulants have (and sometimes are) still being used by certain militaries to enhance performance, obviously in such cases they are given by doctors and not sold illegally in vast amounts...

[Corvinus85]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Good news. A heroic Ukrainian defender taken prisoner in the retreat from Kherson has been rescued and is at liberty. Precise whereabouts at the moment, unknown.

The Russians wouldn't have dared to capture a wolverine.