US Politics: Dominoes falling, GOP failing, what a time to be alive!

[Kalbear]

Gonna point out that the survey basically shows 'people are kinda dumb and not very informed'. For instance, about 3/4s said that the US has designated Hamas as a terrorist group; a quarter said that the US has not. That isn't something that's an opinion; that's simply knowing basic shit. If a quarter of respondents don't think Hamas is a terror group, why would they think that supporting Hamas against Israel is particularly bad? 

Similarly, 26% believe that the Oct-7th attack targeted the Israeli military and was not indiscriminately targeting civilians. 30%  said they weren't paying much or any attention to the Oct 7th attack. 1/3rd believe that Israel caused the hospital explosion. 

But maybe worst of all: 15% say that Israel should be ended and given to Arabs and the Palestinians. 

So...yeah. It's probably accurate in terms of capturing people's viewpoints, it's clear that a whole lot of people don't know shit about it other than the most incendiary things, and lots of Americans hate Jews. 

[Martell Spy]

Opinion: Why his testimony in court is a no-win proposition for Trump

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/05/opinions/trump-trial-testimony-advice-aftergut/index.html

Quote

 

And the prosecutor who cross-examines him needs only to get Trump to do what comes naturally to him — bluster: Trump’s sizable ego means that he will more than likely be eager to inflate his personal wealth. As Michael Cohen, Trump’s one-time fixer who knows him well, told Newsweek last month: “The Forbes 400 list … represents his id, ego and superego all rolled up into one very insecure man baby.” Being kicked off that list last month was a grave wound to Trump’s self-esteem.

On the witness stand, he may be tempted to brag about his net worth in ways that exceeds what the evidence shows — bombast that the court likely will not look charitably on. One might expect, for instance, that the assistant attorney general will press Trump hard on why his bank loan documents say that his Trump Tower apartment is three times its actual size. The cross-examiner wins in that courtroom exchange, whether Trump continues to exaggerate its size or blames somebody else.

 

 

[House Balstroko]

6 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Gonna point out that the survey basically shows 'people are kinda dumb and not very informed'. For instance, about 3/4s said that the US has designated Hamas as a terrorist group; a quarter said that the US has not. That isn't something that's an opinion; that's simply knowing basic shit. If a quarter of respondents don't think Hamas is a terror group, why would they think that supporting Hamas against Israel is particularly bad? 

Similarly, 26% believe that the Oct-7th attack targeted the Israeli military and was not indiscriminately targeting civilians. 30%  said they weren't paying much or any attention to the Oct 7th attack. 1/3rd believe that Israel caused the hospital explosion. 

But maybe worst of all: 15% say that Israel should be ended and given to Arabs and the Palestinians. 

So...yeah. It's probably accurate in terms of capturing people's viewpoints, it's clear that a whole lot of people don't know shit about it other than the most incendiary things, and lots of Americans hate Jews. 

There are also those who don’t want the US to be involved in the Middle East and project their dislike towards Israel because of the disproportionate amount of support it received from the US. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Opinion: Why his testimony in court is a no-win proposition for Trump

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/05/opinions/trump-trial-testimony-advice-aftergut/index.html

 

Biden really has to hope trump gets convicted before the election otherwise right now he’s toast.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Biden really has to hope trump gets convicted before the election otherwise right now he’s toast.

Sadly… if Trump is convicted he is still eligible for the presidency.

[Varysblackfyre321]

14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Sadly… if Trump is convicted he is still eligible for the presidency.

Yeah but maybe it’d even the odds just a little for old genocide Joe.

Goddamn I hate him now too. He should have taken the initial blowback that would have come by just strongly condemning Israel when it cut off water to Gaza and stating bluntly they(Israel) had an actual red-line. In addition to being morally right outcry would be mostly from people who’d never vote for him anyway.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah but maybe it’d even the odds just a little for old genocide Joe.

Goddamn I hate him now too. He should have taken the initial blowback that would have come by just strongly condemning Israel when it cut off water to Gaza and stating bluntly they(Israel) had an actual red-line. In addition to being morally right outcry would be mostly from people who’d never vote for him anyway.

“Genocide Joe”?  You really prefer Trump to a rational human being?  Slogans like that will put Trump back in the White House and we all know how much he loves religious and racial minorities in the US.

I cannot believe Muslims in the US would empower the man and people who wants to ban Muslim immigration and God only knows what else.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Larry of the Lawn]

The election is a year out and the Israel / Palestine conflict's weight as as a voting issue is being greatly exaggerated.  Who knows what could happen in the mean time, I highly doubt this will be a relevant election issue by then.  Even if the election was tomorrow I doubt this budges anything significantly.  Trump has a low ceiling and Biden's best asset isn't going away.  And that asset is that he isn't Donald Trump.

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah but maybe it’d even the odds just a little for old genocide Joe.

Goddamn I hate him now too. He should have taken the initial blowback that would have come by just strongly condemning Israel when it cut off water to Gaza and stating bluntly they(Israel) had an actual red-line. In addition to being morally right outcry would be mostly from people who’d never vote for him anyway.

And what happens when Israel inevitably crosses that "red line"?  What's Biden going to do then?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

The election is a year out and the Israel / Palestine conflict's weight as as a voting issue is being greatly exaggerated.  Who knows what could happen in the mean time, I highly doubt this will be a relevant election issue by then.  Even if the election was tomorrow I doubt this budges anything significantly.  Trump has a low ceiling and Biden's best asset isn't going away.  And that asset is that he isn't Donald Trump.

The problem, as I see it, is an enthusiasm gap.  Trump’s cultists will show up… no matter what he does.  As such he has a base turn out guaranteed.  If people keep running down Biden… particularly in places like Michigan.  Trumpanista turn out could swamp turn out elsewhere.

Once again, I appreciate the anger of Muslim Americans.  But… at the end of the day that anger could empower someone exponentially worse for them than the guy they are damning today.

Trump and his Republican Party are an existential threat to all of us who see what they are.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

The election is a year out and the Israel / Palestine conflict's weight as as a voting issue is being greatly exaggerated.  Who knows what could happen in the mean time, I highly doubt this will be a relevant election issue by then.  Even if the election was tomorrow I doubt this budges anything significantly.  Trump has a low ceiling and Biden's best asset isn't going away.  And that asset is that he isn't Donald Trump.

And what happens when Israel inevitably crosses that "red line"?  What's Biden going to do then?

Let the UN condemn them, sanction them, refuse weapons sells to them, withhold aid from them. There’s a number of things Dems and Biden can threaten and should do.

15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Once again, I appreciate the anger of Muslim Americans.

It’s not just them I’m worried it’s all the young particulars young people of color who are turned off by Biden’s fecklessness and his appeals to Israel. There isn’t a significantly sized hard lined base on the topic Democrats need worry about losing votes over by doing the right thing. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Genocide Joe”?  You really prefer Trump to a rational human being?

Of course not, that’s why I will vote for Biden when it comes to it in the general even if I think it’s a lost cause, I have to try something to help this country advert fascism

I just hate Dems and him seem deadset on committing electoral suicide for Israel.

[Larry of the Lawn]

10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The problem, as I see it, is an enthusiasm gap.  Trump’s cultists will show up… no matter what he does.  As such he has a base turn out guaranteed.  If people keep running down Biden… particularly in places like Michigan.  Trumpanista turn out could swamp turn out elsewhere.

Once again, I appreciate the anger of Muslim Americans.  But… at the end of the day that anger could empower someone exponentially worse for them than the guy they are damning today.

Trump and his Republican Party are an existential threat to all of us who see what they are.

Sure.  I meant for that whole post to be a response to varys, and my point to them was that what they're wishing Biden would have done would result in a much worse showing for Biden.

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Let the UN condemn them, sanction them, refuse weapons sells to them, withhold aid from them. There’s a number of things Dems and Biden can threaten and should do.

It’s not just them I’m worried it’s all the young particulars young people of color who are turned off by Biden’s fecklessness and his appeals to Israel. There isn’t a significantly sized hard lined base on the topic Democrats need worry about losing votes over by doing the right thing. 

You think that's going to increase voter turnout lol?  I'd love for the US to stop Israel's human rights abuses.  If you think Biden and Dem leadership are suddenly going to change their minds on this i'd love to see your reasoning. 

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Of course not, that’s why I will vote for Biden when it comes to it in the general even if I think it’s a lost cause, I have to try something to help this country advert fascism

I just hate Dems and him seem deadset on committing electoral suicide for Israel.

I feel very similarly, but you're dead wrong on which one is electoral suicide.  

[Rippounet]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Sadly… if Trump is convicted he is still eligible for the presidency.

I've read that up to half of Republicans would have second thoughts about him if he is convicted (can't remember if it was in The New York Times or The Atlantic).
And even losing a tenth of voters might be enough for him to lose, given how close the margins are in swing states these days.

Point is, a conviction is highly dangerous for Trump, and his legal team is hard at work making sure no case can be decided before the election (multiplying bad-faith arguments to drag the process).
I'm afraid this is quite easy though, and unless a judge cuts through the bullshit (assuming they can), his strategy will work.
 

[Tywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I cannot believe Muslims in the US would empower the man and people who want to ban Muslim immigration and God only knows what else.

Well for starters, if Trump wins he'll likely give Israel and blank check to do as they please.

The truth is too many citizens don't understand the need to be a strategic voters, at least for federal and statewide offices. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

20 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I've read that up to half of Republicans would have second thoughts about him if he is convicted (can't remember if it was in The New York Times or The Atlantic).
And even losing a tenth of voters might be enough for him to lose, given how close the margins are in swing states these days.

Point is, a conviction is highly dangerous for Trump, and his legal team is hard at work making sure no case can be decided before the election (multiplying bad-faith arguments to drag the process).
I'm afraid this is quite easy though, and unless a judge cuts through the bullshit (assuming they can), his strategy will work.
 

His cultists don’t care.  They will either refuse to vote for another Republican… or… they will stay home altogether.  Demographicly the Republican Party is dead without Trump populism.

The Republican Party is tied to the mast of the sinking SS Trump.  So… they will do everything in their power to keep that ship afloat.  Their desperate flaying attempts to salvage their power is what really frightens me.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Varysblackfyre321]

35 minutes ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

feel very similarly, but you're dead wrong on which one is electoral suicide.  

There is no large voting block democrats rely on that’s particularly infatuated with Israel.

[Rippounet]

10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

His cultists don’t care.  They will eithet refuse to vote for another Republican… or… they will stay home altogether.  Demographicly the Republican Party is dead without Trump populism.

The Republican Party is tied to the mast of the sinking SS Trump.  So… they will do everything in their power to keep that ship afloat.  Their desperate flaying attempts to salvage their power is what really frightens me.

And yet, not all Republicans are die-hard trumpists.

God damn it Scot, now I have to substantiate the claim:
 

Quote

It has become conventional wisdom that nothing can hurt Trump’s standing in the polls. But his legal jeopardy could, in fact, have political consequences. At least some proportion of Republicans and independents are already paying attention to Trump’s courtroom travails, and reassessing their prior beliefs. A recent report by the political-science collaborative Bright Line Watch found that, following the Mar-a-Lago classified-documents indictment in June, the number of voters in each group who believed that Trump had committed a crime in his handling of classified information jumped by 10 percentage points or more (to 25 and 46 percent, respectively).

And despite Trump’s effort to frame January 6 as an expression of mass discontent by the American people, the insurrection has never been popular: Extremist candidates who ran on a platform of election denial in the 2022 midterms performed remarkably poorly in swing states. Ongoing criminal proceedings that remind Americans again and again of Trump’s culpability for the insurrection—among his other alleged crimes—seem unlikely to boost his popularity with persuadable voters. If he appears diminished or uncertain in court, even the enthusiasm of the MAGA faithful might conceivably wane. Above all of this looms the possibility of a conviction before Election Day, which has no doubt inspired many Democratic fantasies. If Trump is found guilty of any of the crimes of which he now stands accused, a recent poll shows, almost half of Republicans say they would not cast their vote for him.

The Courtroom Is a Very Unhappy Place for Donald Trump By Quinta Jurecic, The Atlantic, August 30, 2023

 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Rippounet

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

And yet, not all Republicans are die-hard trumpists.

God damn it Scot, now I have to substantiate the claim:
 

 

 

Ripp,

No, not all are Trumpanistas.  But they are all dependent upon Trumpanistas voters for their base votes.  Hence the power of (oxymoronicly named) “Freedom Caucus” in the House.  They are Trump die hards.  

Those who break from the fold, like Ken Buck, “retire”.

[kissdbyfire]

I watched something (don’t remember where) the other day that I thought was quite interesting. It was a focus group in…I want to say Georgia but I’m not sure. And the person conducting it at one point is talking to an older man, probably mid to late 60s, and she asks him about Biden. The guy says he doesn’t like him, he’s a republican and Biden is too lefty besides being way too old to be running. The person then asks him about Mango and he says he voted for him twice but doesn’t think he should run again. And when asked, “well, you don’t like Biden and don’t think Trump should run, but what if those are the options on the ballot next year?” And the guy says, if it’s Biden and Trump I’ll vote for Biden even if he’s dead”. 
I wonder if there are many more like him out there? 
 

[LongRider]

Trump takes the stand today in the civil fraud trial in New York.  

As for the election, it's a year away.  What will Israel look like in a year?  Who knows.  However, in a year the women of the US will still have lost their reproductive and health rights. We're here, and we won't forget who took those away from us.  And we vote.