Ukraine War: David And Goliath

[Loge]

4 hours ago, Toth said:

The Gepard is just a clever slug thrower mounted on a Leopard 1 chassis. It's decidedly not amphibious, but it doesn't need to be, because Ukraine got plenty of pontoon bridges and bridge-layer vehicles. The issue is, of course, suppressing Russian artillery near the Dnepr enough to make a concerted crossing less suicidal. The only truly amphibious vehicles Ukraine has are the poor old BMPs. Here Ukraine's counter artillery capabilities are king.

But yeah, like Makk says, Gepards have proven to be awesome at drone defense and while their original mission profile back when they were designed was to protect armored units on the move, it has its reason why Germany has been phasing it out. I don't think it can be expected to defend itself against any fighter and would struggle even against helicopters hurling missiles at it from outside its range. You really want to bring missiles for that job. Ukraine may receive 15 more Gepards from Germany and 30 the US bought from Jordan pretty much as we speak, but I still doubt Ukraine wants to risk them at the front line for the expectation of dubious results.

It's quite frustrating. I've just scrolled through the Wikipedia articles to see what else we in Germany could deliver for a push. The Gepard has a range of 5,5 km. It was so far "replaced" with Ozelot, a light weapons carrier with some missiles attached to it. Those are mostly just Stingers with an 8 km range or LFK NG, which have a 10 km range. The problem is, Germany only has 19 of those, most currently stationed in Lithuania...

Strange, the website for the Skyranger, the Boxer variant that is supposed to be a beefed up Gepard, says its effective firing range is only 4 km, but it's also advertised specifically to cost-effectively bring down drone swarms, not to defend against jets and missiles.

I think the Gepard could shoot down any missile fired at it, though the aircraft if was launched from would usually be out of range. And while not amphibious, it should have some fording capability. The Leopard 1 it's based on certainly has. Not sure if that's enough to cross the Dnipro, though. 

[Werthead]

Russia has suffered a large equipment loss after an armoured column departed eastwards from Mykilske. Ukrainian drone and artillery fire took out 4 BMPs and 3 T-72 tanks. Additional vehicles were destroyed but how many is impossible to determine, as by the time OSINT sources got their hands on footage, all that was left was substantial amounts of Russian metal that had almost fused together from the intensity of the bombardment.

The Ukrainians also had zero clue what the Russians were doing (they were heading back into Russian lines, or at least along them), but just took them out because why not?

Ukraine also launched a fairly substantial ATACMS bombardment earlier today but it's unclear what the target was.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Russia has suffered a large equipment loss after an armoured column departed eastwards from Mykilske. Ukrainian drone and artillery fire took out 4 BMPs and 3 T-72 tanks. Additional vehicles were destroyed but how many is impossible to determine, as by the time OSINT sources got their hands on footage, all that was left was substantial amounts of Russian metal that had almost fused together from the intensity of the bombardment.

The Ukrainians also had zero clue what the Russians were doing (they were heading back into Russian lines, or at least along them), but just took them out because why not?

Ukraine also launched a fairly substantial ATACMS bombardment earlier today but it's unclear what the target was.

I have an acquaintance at work (I’m in a Regus office and we work for completely different organizations) who is a veteran and works in the “security industry”.  He complains frequently that the Ukrainians have fallen back to using Soviet style offensive tactics rather than NATO style manuver and initative.  

Is he correct to criticize the Ukrainian tactics for their recent efforts?

Edited November 4, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[A Horse Named Stranger]

20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I have an acquaintance at work (I’m in a Regus office and we work for completely different organizations) who is a veteran and works in the “security industry”.  He complains frequently that the Ukrainians have fallen back to using Soviet style offensive tactics rather than NATO style manuver and initative.  

Is he correct to criticize the Ukrainian tactics for their recent efforts?

Nato handbook heavily relies on Air superiority/supremacy. Afaik, there are very few ways to piss off Ukrainian commanders than to tell them to use NATO tactics without an air force to flatten everything in its path.

[Kalbear]

37 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I have an acquaintance at work (I’m in a Regus office and we work for completely different organizations) who is a veteran and works in the “security industry”.  He complains frequently that the Ukrainians have fallen back to using Soviet style offensive tactics rather than NATO style manuver and initative.  

Is he correct to criticize the Ukrainian tactics for their recent efforts?

Fuck no. 

NATO style of maneuver and initiative is what Ukraine did last year, to very good success, while they were waiting for resupply and support. But they were fighting on a very dynamic battlefield and Russia was taking a lot of territory. Plus, Russian logistics were garbage and they were incredibly overconfident in their capabilities. 

Russia then spent 6 months fortifying, mining, and defending that territory. NATO tactics for dealing with mines are...not to do it. Or, as @A Horse Named Stranger mentions, having massive air superiority before moving in. Furthermore NATO tactics are kind of outmoded in the respect that nowadays both sides - thanks to drones and imagery - know pretty much everything. There is no secret way to amass a force or route it somewhere else as NATO doctrine would like to do; Russia has gotten a lot better at using scouting than they were. The result means that you cannot just out maneuver the enemy force. You can't roll initiative on mines, and getting through multiple layers of defense in depth that is 15-20 km deep doesn't just happen easily and quickly anyway. 

If Ukraine had more reinforcements, more ability to replace equipment losses and more ability to absorb casualties? Maybe they can deal or create a major breach. If Ukraine had more experience with combined arms warfare that would help too. But it isn't Soviet tactics that they're using here. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Well, it's more of a Soviet/Nato+ hybrid tactic Ukraine are using.

The heavy reliance on artiellery is Soviet handbook of warfare. What is not Soviet hnadbook is the command structure. Bit simplified is NATO: Ok, seal team 1. This is the mission objective, proceed as you see fit. Soviet playbook is more strict. Go to point a. eliminate forces there, then proceed to point b. etc. to achieve the mission objective. If things go sideways, Ukrainians are free(er) to deviate from standard operation procedure as things develop on the battlefield. Russian units have to report back to the superiors.

Anyway, the artillery is again a direct function of not having an air force to deal with Russian artillery and Russian Airforce, the helicopters that helped the Russians stop Ukrainian/western tanks would have been taken out by fighter jets. As kal said, drones have become an integral part for both sides (the + part). So NATO playbook will also be updated after this war. The delivery of ATACMS with longer range has helped Ukraine dealing with Russian helicopters by being able to hit airfields that are further away (and thus destroying a number of them), which in turn has forced Russia to move them further away from the frontlines. But ATACMS were delivered too late for the Ukrainian doomed first push. Had they been available earlier to push Russian helicopters away earlier, we might be in a different situation.

Ukraine works with what they have. To say they should do this and that is really ignoring this very basic issue. Use NATO tactics, without NATO's toys is just not gonna work.

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

Ukraine of course does have not the electromagnetic spectrum warfare capabilities of NATO militaries either, which has had massive consequences.  ECM and ECCM would be fully integrated into a NATO "style" full-scale assault: jamming drones, degrading the efficiency of integrated air defense system assets and interfering with inter-unit communications.  

The latter in particular would have been ideally suited for the summer counteroffensive.  If you can jam forward artillery observers (esp. including drones), and degrade/destroy their redundant landlines with artillery or air power, then your engineers can clear minefields relatively easier and create channels for the armor to advance. 

Naturally, no way Ukraine gets the best jamming equipment from the West as they don't want to tip their hand too much to allow the Russians to study and devise up-to-date countermeasures.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Tongue Stuck to Wall

[Bironic]

The South Korean military intelligence NIS believes that North Korea has delievered over 1 million artillery shells to Russia since August 2023. Previous western estimates of North Korean artillery shells were up to 500000. They suspect that North Korea also sent short range ballistic missiles, anti-tank missiles, portable anti-air missiles, rifles, rocket launchers, mortars.

North Korea supply for Russia

Italian Fascist Minister president Giorgia Meloni fell to a prank call by Russians Vovan and Lexus on 18. September 2023.

Quote

I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides. We (are) near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.”

“The problem is to find a way out which can be acceptable for both without destroying the international law,” she added.

That was what she apparently said about the war in Ukraine. Doesn't look very good for Ukraine... Giorgia Meloni Russian Pranksters

An October 23 study by the independent levada polling institute indicates continuous russian support for the war in Ukraine. Obviously this study has to be taken with a huge grain of salt, since any critique about the war can put you in jail for years. What I would make of it is that there is a significant part of the population that supports the war, thinks that the war goes reasonably well and the older generations are more supportive than the younger ones.

Study results in russian short summary of study results in german

Edited November 5, 2023 by Bironic

[Corvinus85]

This may have been a case of complacency, but Zelenskyy has announced that an investigation has been opened.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/4/7427221/

Quote

The Russian army has launched an attack on Ukrainian soldiers in a frontline village in Zaporizhzhia. The soldiers are believed to have gathered together in one place for an awards ceremony on the occasion of Rocket Forces and Artillery Day [3 November – ed.]. According to early reports, there may be over 20 fatalities.

...

"More than 20 soldiers are reported to have been killed at about 10:00-11:00 (Kyiv time) on 3 November 2023 during the presentation of awards to soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the contact zone in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as a result of a missile hitting the place where the awards ceremony was being held.

Can't do stuff like this on the frontlines.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Corvinus85

[Werthead]

Owch. That's a Karakurt-class covette taking at least three Storm Shadows in rapid succession.

[Werthead]

Some Ukrainian military vehicles have now been spotted south of the Dnipro, indicating they have successfully transferred some heavier equipment across. Only IFVs so far, no sign of tanks.

Ukraine ambushed a Russian military column near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast. 3 tanks and 4 BMPs destroyed.

Lavrov has asked to attend the annual OSCE meeting and has been again told to fuck off. Russia technically has observer status at the organisation, but it's up to the hosting country if they let Russian planes land or not. Last year's host, Poland, and this year's, Macedonia, have refused to lift their bans on Russian planes landing.

Live F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots has begun in Romania, with the first planes arriving from the Netherlands.

The Russian economy has taken another hit due to non-payment of bank loans by citizens. Almost 50% of Russians with bank loans have refused or been unable to make their payments for the last two months. Russian banks are, unsurprisingly, unimpressed but are simply unable to enforce the payment system due to a lack of manpower to arrest/repossess tens of millions of homes.

Something big blew up at Taganrog Airport, Rostov. Unclear what it was so far.

[Maithanet]

34 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Russian economy has taken another hit due to non-payment of bank loans by citizens. Almost 50% of Russians with bank loans have refused or been unable to make their payments for the last two months. Russian banks are, unsurprisingly, unimpressed but are simply unable to enforce the payment system due to a lack of manpower to arrest/repossess tens of millions of homes.

But something that has been happening is that recruiters are increasingly targeting debtors to go to the front.  In Russia you can be arrested and put in prison for unpaid rent/debts.  This works out great for the Russian military, because with the economy struggling, a great many people can't pay their debts and may see the military as the best bad option available. 

Russia is a horrible place. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

We don't know the demographics of the debtors.

I mean the Russian Army is not picky about their meat. But I don't think some unfit guys in their 40s or 50s are gonna help the Russian war effort that much. And then there's the question how much mobilization is the Russian society willing to take. And whether they are forced by a draft letter or by an upaid bank loan is probably a rather academic distinction at some point, if you ship too many people off to Ukraine to return in a coffin over an outstanding payment for Lada.

[Maithanet]

Russia has been shipping men who most armies would consider unfit for service for over a year already.  Plenty of pics/videos out there of men in their 50s training to go to Ukraine.  I'm sure not all debtors are actually of military usefulness, but I'm sure plenty of them are.

And  if you're talking about overall public discontent, I think there is a big difference between someone choosing to sign up because their other options are worse and grabbing men off the street and shoving them into vans (as they have been doing in DNR/LNR for years). 

[Werthead]

A Liberian-flagged, Philippine-crewed vessel entering Odesa port was hit by a Russian missile. Four people injured, one killed.

The US Congress has approved a bill to transfer seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Kadyrov has unilaterally ruled that Chechen children must be taught Chechen as their first language. Russian will also be taught, but Chechen must be considered their mother tongue (note: this is very illegal under Russian law). He has also ignored the new law saying that all Russian government officials must buy Russian-made cars, but importing a bunch of foreign-made SUVs for his leadership team.

Japan has made a pledge to help fortify Ukraine's electrical grid to ensure it doesn't suffer the blackouts it did last winter. Japan also wants to make substantial investments in Ukraine's reconstruction and rebuilding efforts after the war.

The EU is ready to begin the next round of EU accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova, citing progress in both nations on fighting corruption.

There is a cat cafe in Poland which has been taking in cats rescued from the war front in Ukraine. Some of the cats are traumatised and respond poorly to sudden loud noises, so they are being gradually acclimatised back into a safe environment.

Ukraine hit a technical college in Donetsk which was being used as a UAV/drone pilot school.

The situation in Kherson is deteriorating (for the Russians), with confused reports of Ukrainian advances and some villages that were fully secured now apparently seeing skirmishing. Doesn't seem to be a concerted Ukrainian push, but they are operating under drone cover, well within Ukrainian artillery range, whilst Russian artillery seems to be increasingly eroded in this area. However, Russia does continue to strike the area with drones. Some recent indications that Ukrainian forces have pushed out of Krynky and are securing roads in the area, forcing Russians further back from the river.

Russian attacks on Avdiivka are continuing, and Ukraine now believes more than 250 Russian vehicles, artillery systems and helicopters have been destroyed in this area alone. OSINT sources seem to agree it's in that ballpark. Ukraine has apparently received so many drones to use on this front they've been using them to target individual Russian soldiers.

Confirmation it was French-supplied SCALP missiles (rather than UK-supplied Storm Shadows, which are effectively the same weapon) which hit the Kerch Shipyards over the weekend.

The Ukrainian intelligence service has used a car bomb to kill Mikhail Filiponenko, a former Luhansk separarist leader and current member of the region assembly. 

This is interesting:

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Werthead

[Corvinus85]

Unless one actually has X/Twitter, the rest of a thread is not accessible.

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

Unless one actually has X/Twitter, the rest of a thread is not accessible.

Can you read this link?  Clickety

 

[ThinkerX]

12 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Can you read this link?  Clickety

 

I was able to read it.

 

[Wilbur]

Having outpaced their own military industrial capacity, the Russians are asking their former clients for parts and engines.

[Corvinus85]

3 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

I was able to read it.

 

Yes, thanks. A good read.