Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 hours ago, Kalbear said: But they weren't, or at least we have no data for that. Why would their attitudes become less open to a two state solution after having fewer and fewer attacks that decreased over time? Again, how does it make sense to you that as you reduce attacks you reduce acceptance of a two-state solution? Because again the obvious, Hamas. Now did Bibi and the rightwing government help prop them up? Sure. But having a group constantly call for your death and destruction is kind of hard to work with and don't kid yourself, the PA thinks the same way, they're just not as loud about it, but they're still pretty open that their goal is to end the concept of an Israeli state that is a Jewish majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mudguard said: Hell, if the forced displacement plan remains this popular with the Israeli public when the next election is called, Netanyahu can explicitly run on this issue, if he hasn't already accomplished it. He can make the forced displacement of Palestinians the cornerstone of his platform. If he really is that unpopular, he's going to have to do something extreme to win, and this fits the bill. He's finished. Now it could be possible that someone else tries to do the same thing, but Netanyahu's career is all but over. You don't recover from the polling numbers we're seeing. ETA: The more troubling notion is because of this he's less likely to find a way to end the war because it's the only thing keeping him in power. Edited January 4 by Tywin et al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudguard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 32 minutes ago, Ran said: He's not going to be running things. I really don't get why this is so hard to understand. Post-Gaza is also post-Netanyahu. Benny Gantz is polling as the likely next prime minister, and he's already raised brows regarding talking about a two-state solution ("two-entity" is how he phrased it, to get around a bit of injunction from talking about it). Likud us going to crater, add the far-right with them. All this guff about Gazans being forced out will go away then. Next scheduled election is October 2026, roughly three years away. Whether an election will be called before then is an open question, and if that doesn't happen or it takes a year or more to happen, that's a long time and polls now are meaningless. Also, if elections aren't held early and soon, he will have plenty of time to try and enact his forced displacement plan. Netanyahu is clearly going to slow play his war in Gaza, and will extend it as long as he can, until he feels like it's the best time to claim victory. Gantz's lead over Netanyahu isn't that great, and Netanyahu is still running second in the latest polls. Say what you want about Netanyahu, but there's no denying that he's a skilled politician. Everything he is doing now is to shore up his position and improve his chances at staying in power. dbergkvist and Zorral 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Netanyahu has staved off certain defeat before, and has a whole-ass war of vengeance to manipulate for the next few years, so I find it very surprising that Tywin and Ran have such a firm and clear view of Israel's political future. JGP, dbergkvist, Matrim Fox Cauthon and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: Netanyahu has staved off certain defeat before, and has a whole-ass war of vengeance to manipulate for the next few years, so I find it very surprising that Tywin and Ran have such a firm and clear view of Israel's political future. For real. I mean, if he makes it to the GE [which in all likelihood he will] despite all even Drumpf has a chance of winning. dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) Gosh. As Gazans return to destroyed homes, Israeli ministers push resettlement Controversial proposals from some Israeli officials to evacuate Gazans to camps in Egypt or other countries are causing rifts with Washington, Europe and the United Nations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/04/gaza-displaced-civilians-resettlement-israel/ Quote As some residents trickle back to their ruined neighborhoods, prominent politicians in Israel have questioned whether they should go home at all. Controversial proposals from some Israeli officials to evacuate Gazans to camps in Egypt or other countries are causing rifts with Washington, Europe and the United Nations, and have been included in a case filed against Israel at the International Court of Justice alleging “genocide” in Gaza. Far-right members of the governing coalition have proposed sending displaced Palestinians to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the European Union or Chile. The Post reported in December that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged President Biden and other U.S. officials to pressure Egypt to open its border with Gaza and accept Palestinian refugees. A report in Israeli media last week said Netanyahu was in discussions with the Democratic Republic of Congo to receive “voluntary migration” from Gaza. Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli Foreign Ministry declined to comment. The Congolese government did not respond to requests for comment. Critics say such proposals could amount to the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian enclave .... Edited January 5 by Zorral dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Zorral said: Gosh. As Gazans return to destroyed homes, Israeli ministers push resettlement Controversial proposals from some Israeli officials to evacuate Gazans to camps in Egypt or other countries are causing rifts with Washington, Europe and the United Nations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/04/gaza-displaced-civilians-resettlement-israel/ So many reports on this lately as if this is “news”, but the rhetoric coming out of Israeli officials has been consistent throughout. They haven’t been shy about sharing their views w/ anyone who’d listen, including several mainstream news outlets. They’ve done it over and over and over again… I suppose it’s a good thing that more people have decided to pay attention? Also, I very interesting explanations by British solicitor Daniel Machover on all these new legal aspects, including how Western powers know very well what is going on with the ethnic cleansing rhetoric and how not voicing specific concerns comes from wanting to avoid legal exposure rather than lack of concern. dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: Because again the obvious, Hamas. But again we are talking about hamas already being there for 6 years, and for 7.years prior they were one of the main instigators of attacks. So again - what changed from 2013 (when hamas had been in power or around for 13 years) and 2023? Is your argument really that Israelis were more okay with suicide attacks than they were threatening social media? dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fionwe1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Zorral said: Gosh. As Gazans return to destroyed homes, Israeli ministers push resettlement Controversial proposals from some Israeli officials to evacuate Gazans to camps in Egypt or other countries are causing rifts with Washington, Europe and the United Nations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/04/gaza-displaced-civilians-resettlement-israel/ Be prepared for "It will never happen". Because if it could, perhaps then the full throated defense of Israel's actions, and the supposed moral rectitude of its military we've heard about would need to be reexamined. And the cognitive dissonance of that is too much. So you'll continue to hear denials of this, which, of course, will only enable the dumbfucks who want this. Crixus and dbergkvist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudguard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 22 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said: Also, I very interesting explanations by British solicitor Daniel Machover on all these new legal aspects, including how Western powers know very well what is going on with the ethnic cleansing rhetoric and how not voicing specific concerns comes from wanting to avoid legal exposure rather than lack of concern. I don't share his optimism that any Israeli will ever face justice at the ICJ/ICC, even if there is overwhelming evidence of war crimes. The US will veto any order that seeks to enforce any action ordered by such a court. This is clearly Biden's position, and I don't think Trump would have a different position on this either. I do agree about the point of avoiding legal exposure. The US is has admitted publicly several times to not doing a formal assessment of whether Israel has committed any war crimes, precisely as the video explains, to avoid triggering certain duties and responsibilities if the assessment is that Israel has likely committed war crimes. Such a finding would require the US to stop providing Israel with weapons and ammunition. So to keep the weapons and ammo flowing unimpeded, we are going to deliberately adopt the head in the sand strategy and just aren't going to look into it, regardless of the amount of evidence that supports a closer look. Zorral, Matrim Fox Cauthon, dbergkvist and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Mudguard said: I don't share his optimism that any Israeli will ever face justice at the ICJ/ICC, even if there is overwhelming evidence of war crimes. The US will veto any order that seeks to enforce any action ordered by such a court. This is clearly Biden's position, and I don't think Trump would have a different position on this either. Sadly, I agree completely. And that’s another argument in favour of a massive restructuring of the UN. It actually needs to be reinvented so that it can fulfill its duties. The UN in general, and specifically and especially the Security Council, b/c in its current format it is 100% useless. It needs more permanent members, and a different formula for the veto system. I don’t know, something like 24 permanent members and for a resolution/proposal to be vetoed, you’d need 1/3 of the members vetoing it. The way it is now is a total joke. 9 minutes ago, Mudguard said: I do agree about the point of avoiding legal exposure. The US is has admitted publicly several times to not doing a formal assessment of whether Israel has committed any war crimes, precisely as the video explains, to avoid triggering certain duties and responsibilities if the assessment is that Israel has likely committed war crimes. Such a finding would require the US to stop providing Israel with weapons and ammunition. So to keep the weapons and ammo flowing unimpeded, we are going to deliberately adopt the head in the sand strategy and just aren't going to look into it, regardless of the amount of evidence that supports a closer look. Yes, that’s what I thought was very interesting. It hadn’t occurred to me that the way several countries are dealing w/ the situation had anything to do w/ avoiding legal exposure. In my non-lawyer mind it was more a matter of simply trying to deny the obvious b/c otherwise it’s hard to justify the continued support and sending all the weapons and ammo etc., but the possibility of legal exposure never really crossed my mind. Matrim Fox Cauthon, Zorral and dbergkvist 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fionwe1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 58 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said: Sadly, I agree completely. And that’s another argument in favour of a massive restructuring of the UN. It actually needs to be reinvented so that it can fulfill its duties. The UN in general, and specifically and especially the Security Council, b/c in its current format it is 100% useless. It needs more permanent members, and a different formula for the veto system. I don’t know, something like 24 permanent members and for a resolution/proposal to be vetoed, you’d need 1/3 of the members vetoing it. The way it is now is a total joke. Should there even be a veto system? dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 46 minutes ago, fionwe1987 said: Should there even be a veto system? If you want to actually have powerful countries involved, yes. Otherwise it becomes the league of nations. Jace, Extat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fionwe1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 37 minutes ago, Kalbear said: If you want to actually have powerful countries involved, yes. Otherwise it becomes the league of nations. I think that says more about those powerful nations than that a veto system is good or useful. Similar arguments were made to give the P5 vetoes, and look where we are. dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 5 hours ago, fionwe1987 said: Should there even be a veto system? Well, requiring 1/3 of the members to veto something is like not having a veto, right? Or to put it differently, it’s a veto in name only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 hours ago, Ran said: He's not going to be running things. I really don't get why this is so hard to understand. Post-Gaza is also post-Netanyahu. Benny Gantz is polling as the likely next prime minister, and he's already raised brows regarding talking about a two-state solution ("two-entity" is how he phrased it, to get around a bit of injunction from talking about it). Likud us going to crater, add the far-right with them. All this guff about Gazans being forced out will go away then. 10 hours ago, DanteGabriel said: Netanyahu has staved off certain defeat before, and has a whole-ass war of vengeance to manipulate for the next few years, so I find it very surprising that Tywin and Ran have such a firm and clear view of Israel's political future. Ran - basically what DG said. The last decade has led me to swear off presupposing the outcome of any election. Until he's actually removed from office he's the leader of Israel and I'll continue to treat him as such. dbergkvist and Crixus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 11 hours ago, DanteGabriel said: Netanyahu has staved off certain defeat before Likud and Netanyahu have not seen negative numbers like this since 2006, when the party split and Likud was left with only 12 seats in Knesset and Ariel Sharon took over as PM. The dysfunction of Knesset has been played masterfully by Netanyahu, but he isn't going to overcome this. He can only delay the inevitable. Edited January 5 by Ran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 MICHELLE GOLDBERG America Must Face Up to Israel’s Extremism Jan. 5, 2024, 5:02 a.m. ET https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/opinion/israel-gaza-displacement.html Quote ... with its widespread destruction of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure, including roughly 70 percent of its housing, Israel is making most of Gaza uninhabitable for the foreseeable future. Disease is rampant in Gaza, hunger almost universal, and the United Nations reports that much of the enclave is at risk of famine. Amid all this horror, members of Netanyahu’s Likud party — such as Danny Danon, Israel’s former ambassador to the United Nations, and Gila Gamliel, Israel’s intelligence minister — are pushing emigration as a humanitarian solution. “Instead of funneling money to rebuild Gaza or to the failed UNRWA,” the United Nations agency that works with Palestinian refugees, “the international community can assist in the costs of resettlement, helping the people of Gaza build new lives in their new host countries,” wrote Gamliel in The Jerusalem Post. Right now, this is a grotesque fantasy. But as Gaza’s suffering ratchets up, some sort of evacuation might come to appear like a necessary last resort. At least, that’s what some prominent Israeli officials seem to be counting on. .... .... After Hamas’s sadistic attack on Israel on Oct. 7, Israel was justified in retaliating; any country would have. But there is a difference between the war Israel’s liberal supporters want to pretend that the country is fighting in Gaza, and the war Israel is actually waging. Pro-Israel Democrats want to back a war to remove Hamas from Gaza. But increasingly, it looks as if America is underwriting a war to remove Gazans from Gaza. Experts in international law can debate whether the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza can be classified as genocidal, as South Africa is claiming at the International Court of Justice, or as some lesser type of war crime. But whatever you want to call attempts to “thin out” Gaza’s population — as the Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom described an alleged Netanyahu proposal — the United States is implicated in them. By acting as if Ben-Gvir and Smotrich can be hived off from the government in which they serve, U.S. policymakers are fostering denial about the character of Netanyahu’s rule. Joe Biden often speaks of his 1973 meeting with Golda Meir, then the prime minister, and like many American Zionists, his view of Israel sometimes seems stuck in that era. If you grew up in a liberal Zionist household, as I did, you’ve probably heard this (possibly apocryphal) Meir quote: “When peace comes we will perhaps in time be able to forgive the Arabs for killing our sons, but it will be harder for us to forgive them for having forced us to kill their sons.” There’s much to criticize in this sentiment — its self-regard, the way it positions Israel as the victim even when it’s doing the killing; still, it at least suggests a tortured ambivalence about meting out violence. But this attitude, which Israelis sometimes call “shooting and crying,” is now as obsolete as Meir’s Zionist socialism, at least among Israel’s leaders. Among both American and European politicians, said my friend Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator with the Palestinians who now heads the U.S./Middle East Project, there’s a “willful refusal to take seriously just how extreme this government is — whether before Oct. 7 or subsequently.” I’m tempted to say that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich said the quiet part out loud, but in truth they just said the loud part louder. Crixus and dbergkvist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Unauthorized settler activity surges in the occupied West Bank, a watchdog says. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/05/world/middleeast/israel-west-bank-settlements.html?smid=url-share Quote Under the cover of the war in Gaza, Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank have carried out a “surge” of unauthorized moves to expand their footprint in the territory, according to a report by Peace Now, an Israeli advocacy group that opposes settlements and tracks their progress. Peace Now’s settlement watch team said it had recorded the establishment of nine new so-called wildcat settlement outposts, not authorized by the Israeli government, which appear to be mostly made up of temporary structures. The team also said it documented the creation of more than a dozen new dirt paths and roads. In addition, the report found, settlers have been fencing off open areas in the part of the West Bank that is under complete Israeli control in order to block access to Palestinian herders. Several of the outposts and roads are on privately owned Palestinian land, the report said, in violation of Israeli law. .... dbergkvist and Crixus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The imagery of the refugees here is remarkable. This is a before and after picture of Rafah, where you can see how the tents and encampments and everything have built up in just two months. https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-01-05-24/h_1a52f4af19f7733a2884d225b89cd0ff dbergkvist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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