Ukraine War: incompetence vs fecklessness

[SpaceChampion]

 

[horangi]

1 hour ago, SpaceChampion said:

 

It also shows Biden (indirectly) in good light trying to defuse the situation.  Even if he was already dead set on the invasion by that point, Putin announcing he'd rather go play hockey at the end of the call rather than hammer out a joint statement shows just how little he was interested in maintaining the veneer of diplomacy.

Edited March 14 by horangi

[Bironic]

 

3 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

 

Has that been proven to be real? 
If yes it confirms my view that Macron especially but also the other western leaders (Biden, Scholz, Johnson, Zelensky, etc.) did everything they could to persuade Putin to stop the invasion prior to 24.2.2022, thanks for posting 

Edited March 14 by Bironic

[Kalbear]

Ukrainian lack of ammo and capabilities are becoming more acute and more dangerous:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024

Quote

German outlet Der Spiegel published interviews with unnamed Ukrainian commanders on March 12 who stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations have to husband ammunition and materiel because of the overall ammunition shortage and that some Ukrainian units with limited ammunition and materiel can only hold their current positions if Russian forces do not “attack with full force.”[1] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that there is a threat of Russian units advancing deep into Ukrainian formations in unspecified areas of the frontline.[2]

Ukrainian forces are likely attempting to mitigate problems caused by ammunition shortages by prioritizing the allocation of ammunition to sectors of the front facing larger-scale Russian offensive operations. The lower intensity of Russian offensive efforts against currently de-prioritized sectors likely obscures the risks to Ukrainian forces in those areas resulting from ammunition shortages. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have the theater-wide initiative and will be able to determine the time, location, and scale of offensive operations so long as they retain the initiative.[3] Syrskyi’s and the Ukrainian commanders' statements suggest that an intensification of Russian offensive operations in an area where Ukrainian forces have not prioritized allocating already limited ammunition supplies could lead to a Russian breakthrough and destabilization along a previously stable sector of the frontline in a short period of time. The current frontline is likely thus not stable, and timely Western resourcing of Ukrainian troops is essential to prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting an opportunity for a breakthrough on a vulnerable sector of the front.

 

[The Wondering Wolf]

20 minutes ago, Bironic said:

 

Has that been proven to be real? 
If yes it confirms my view that Macron especially but also the other western leaders (Biden, Scholz, Johnson, Zelensky, etc.) did everything they could to persuade Putin to stop the invasion prior to 24.2.2022, thanks for posting 

It's definitely real, a part of the documentary Un président, l'Europe et la guerre, which was available on Youtube at one point.

[Werthead]

Macron is deploying a significant French military force to Romania. He has said there is "no need" for this force to enter Ukraine but he will not rule out doing so in response to "Russian escalation."

The current scuttlebutt is that if deployed onto Ukrainian soil, this force would effectively take over military operations around Odesa, freeing up several large Ukrainian formations to reinforce the front line. However, French advisors, trainers and engineers are likely to enter Ukraine first, to train and assist Ukrainian forces on the ground, rather than engage in direct combat operations. Apparently the phrase "deliberate tripwire" has been doing the rounds, referencing deploying French forces and if these are attacked, this will result in the deployment of combat troops. Ergo, Russia will be encouraged not to attack them.

An alternative reading is that this force will only take action if Russian forces initiate military action in Moldova, as that will be a sign of the conflict spreading to another country, in which case France (and possibly Romania) will respond by reinforcing Moldova. France is not spelling out exactly what its plans are as part of its doctrine of strategic ambiguity.

"There are no red lines for France."

Fucking hell.

Simultaneously, reports of gridlock as Russian civilians flee the settlements between the border and Grayvoron towards Belgorod, as Russian partisan forces vow to liberate the area and destroy large Russian forces. General consensus is that this is a psyops designed to distract from the elections rather than a committed push towards Belgorod. Although these partisan forces seem significantly larger than last year's, it's still unlikely they have the strength to retain territory long enough to reinforce.

ETA: Some reports now that the partisans are using helicopters for rapid deployment, which seems pretty ridiculous inside Russian territory. That might support reports that Russia redeployed air defences from "secure" border areas to replace the S-300 and 400 complexes destroyed in Crimea.

Edited March 14 by Werthead

[Celestial]

20 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Macron is deploying a significant French military force to Romania. He has said there is "no need" for this force to enter Ukraine but he will not rule out doing so in response to "Russian escalation."

The current scuttlebutt is that if deployed onto Ukrainian soil, this force would effectively take over military operations around Odesa, freeing up several large Ukrainian formations to reinforce the front line. However, French advisors, trainers and engineers are likely to enter Ukraine first, to train and assist Ukrainian forces on the ground, rather than engage in direct combat operations. Apparently the phrase "deliberate tripwire" has been doing the rounds, referencing deploying French forces and if these are attacked, this will result in the deployment of combat troops. Ergo, Russia will be encouraged not to attack them.

An alternative reading is that this force will only take action if Russian forces initiate military action in Moldova, as that will be a sign of the conflict spreading to another country, in which case France (and possibly Romania) will respond by reinforcing Moldova. France is not spelling out exactly what its plans are as part of its doctrine of strategic ambiguity.

"There are no red lines for France."

Fucking hell.

Simultaneously, reports of gridlock as Russian civilians flee the settlements between the border and Grayvoron towards Belgorod, as Russian partisan forces vow to liberate the area and destroy large Russian forces. General consensus is that this is a psyops designed to distract from the elections rather than a committed push towards Belgorod. Although these partisan forces seem significantly larger than last year's, it's still unlikely they have the strength to retain territory long enough to reinforce.

 

Werthead, do you have a source about this news and Macron's statement? I am from Romania and I have not heard anything, neither from the French press, nor the Romanian one. I briefly saw a tweet from France 24 about it, but the tweet has disappeared in less than 30 minutes.

 

PS: Don't count on Romania too much, though. While (most of) the public opinion is on Ukraine's side, the government is weak and wimpy and the Romanian army leaves a lot to be desired.

Edited March 14 by Celestial

[Werthead]

There's a half-hour interview with French television, although he did backtrack from some of the more hardcore interpretations of what he said. He initially said that Russia is an enemy of France, but then backtracked that to say that it is an adversary, but the Russian people are not the enemy. He is also hopeful of negotiating a peace with "the president of Russia, whomever that is." He indicates that he no longer trusts Putin even remotely.

"If Russia were to win, life for the French would change. We would no longer have security in Europe. Who can seriously believe that Putin, who has respected no limits, would stop there?"

He also stated that France's nuclear capability gives it security from Russian threats.

The French force in Romania is apparently a pre-announcement report, so not 100% confirmed but it seems well-supported. We'll see if that happens.

ETA: Macron and Tusk are travelling to Berlin tomorrow and will hold a "Weimar Triangle Summit" with Scholz. It is possible that Tusk will issue similar statements on behalf of Poland and they will together seek to convince Scholz to join their coalition or, at the very least, step up more than he has been (Taurus is a likely discussion point there). Interesting there has been no discussion with the UK so far, given there is a serious probability that the UK would also join a more robust European coalition.

Edited March 14 by Werthead

[Rippounet]

A small French force has been in Romania since 2022. See the official website.

As far as the the French media is concerned (I never watch or listen to the fucker myself), nothing new was announced tonight (lots of empty declarations, as usual).

Macron's positions are widely believed to be linked to the coming European elections, because the Le Pens are generally considered to be pro-Russian, so talking big is a good way to attack the far-right. Of course, something might actually happen in the end, but I wouldn't expect much.

[The Wondering Wolf]

23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Taurus is a likely discussion point there

Scholz has cornered himself there, he will never ever send Taurus to Ukraine. Just today another motion of the biggest opposition party CDU to send Taurus was rejected. 

[Werthead]

Portugal has signed onto the Czech shell procurement plan, despite it already being fully funded. This is probably because the Czechs overshot their initial target of 800,000 shells, reportedly with actually closer to 1.1 million located through various third countries. Portugal and other nations signing on means this higher figure of shells can be delivered to Ukraine quickly. Some indications that the first block of 300,000 shells might already be in Ukraine or almost so, with 500,000 more to follow in the next few weeks and then another 200,000-300,000 shortly afterwards.

[Bironic]

1 minute ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Scholz has cornered himself there, he will never ever send Taurus to Ukraine. Just today another motion of the biggest opposition party CDU to send Taurus was rejected. 

Yes backtracking now would make him  looking even more like the fool he is… so probably nein, or should I say njet ?

5 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

A small French force has been in Romania since 2022. See the official website.

As far as the the French media is concerned (I never watch or listen to the fucker myself), nothing new was announced tonight (lots of empty declarations, as usual).

Macron's positions are widely believed to be linked to the coming European elections, because the Le Pens are generally considered to be pro-Russian, so talking big is a good way to attack the far-right. Of course, something might actually happen in the end, but I wouldn't expect much.

that assessment makes a lot of sense… thanks for your intel…

i still hope though that macron and some of the more proukrainian countries could form some sort of coalition, especially since the USA seems to fall away until 2025 and even further than that if the democrats don’t win the trifecta…

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Portugal has signed onto the Czech shell procurement plan, despite it already being fully funded. This is probably because the Czechs overshot their initial target of 800,000 shells, reportedly with actually closer to 1.1 million located through various third countries. Portugal and other nations signing on means this higher figure of shells can be delivered to Ukraine quickly. Some indications that the first block of 300,000 shells might already be in Ukraine or almost so, with 500,000 more to follow in the next few weeks and then another 200,000-300,000 shortly afterwards.

Yes there are the names of a number of countries mentioned in the passing weeks: South Korea, South Africa, Turkey, Pakistan, Argentina…

[Werthead]

Britain and France have already offered to buy Taurus to backfill their stocks of Storm Shadow and SCALP, and then they can be free to send their remaining stocks of Storm Shadow and SCALP (the same missile, but still) to Ukraine. This is no escalation - Storm Shadow/SCALP has been used in Ukraine for a long time now - and Taurus will not be used against Russia. And if Britain and France said fuck it later on, it's not Germany's fault.

Why Scholz has not taken this deal is unclear, as it's not achieved anything other than pissed off two of its three most important allies.

[Bironic]

Two reasons: first internal German politics, second USA hasn’t sent their long range cruise missile either.

[ThinkerX]

Russia trying to build railways around sanctions:

 

Russia's grand railway plan to get around Western sanctions is about to get even bigger (msn.com)

 

I am reminded of the old Axis powers prior to WWII.

[ThinkerX]

Looks like Ukraine aid might sneak through Congress after all - though it might cost the current speaker his job:

House Republicans will pass Ukraine aid after backing down on border demand (msn.com)

 

MTG is coming across as a Russian stooge.

[Derfel Cadarn]

22 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Looks like Ukraine aid might sneak through Congress after all - though it might cost the current speaker his job:

House Republicans will pass Ukraine aid after backing down on border demand (msn.com)

 

MTG is coming across as a Russian stooge.

Is Johnson waiting until after Russian election?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

9 hours ago, Werthead said:

This is no escalation - Storm Shadow/SCALP has been used in Ukraine for a long time now - and Taurus will not be used against Russia. And if Britain and France said fuck it later on, it's not Germany's fault.

Why Scholz has not taken this deal is unclear, as it's not achieved anything other than pissed off two of its three most important allies.

Internal politics/optics.

Scholz has reaffirmed his Nyet! to Taurus following the Bundeswehr/Luftwaffe leak (which in itself is rather embarassing, using unsecrued hotel w-lan for crying out loud and not realizing you have one more participant in that call). He has faced a lot of domestic scrutiny over it. CDU being the most vocal critic making some hay out of it (also some regional elections coming up), but it's also driving the FDP and the Greens to extreme lengths of frustration (one issue those parties can agree on!). So Foreignminister Baerbock openly floating/endorsing this idea in a Press Conference with David "Piggy" Cameron within days after Scholz publicly declared this deabte to be over, let's just say Sunak is not the only country leader with an authority problem. So Scholz has managed to box himself in between a rock and hard place. Accepting that his non-existent authority is further undermined, or take a firm stand and piss off allies and annoy his partners in the coalition further. There were no good options for him personlaly. So Scholz being Scholz he doubled down on his position. This is no longer a mere policy issue, this is to some degree now a personal thing for Shcolz and his ego.

Edit: factor in the image of the careful/thoughtful leader he tries (and fails) to convey.

Edited March 15 by A Horse Named Stranger

[SeanF]

10 hours ago, Werthead said:

Portugal has signed onto the Czech shell procurement plan, despite it already being fully funded. This is probably because the Czechs overshot their initial target of 800,000 shells, reportedly with actually closer to 1.1 million located through various third countries. Portugal and other nations signing on means this higher figure of shells can be delivered to Ukraine quickly. Some indications that the first block of 300,000 shells might already be in Ukraine or almost so, with 500,000 more to follow in the next few weeks and then another 200,000-300,000 shortly afterwards.

That's a relief.  1.1 m shells will make a difference.

[ThinkerX]

All those artillery shells going off in relatively small areas - those areas are likely to be 'dead zones' for decades. Maybe longer...