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US Politics: A democratic election Prospect Theory and practice


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2 minutes ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

Something along the lines of his biggest concerns in life are golfing, being afraid of dying (specifically by nuclear war), and attending Andrew Lloyd Webber productions.

Fair enough, but is there evidence that he thinks in terms of nuclear arms races, game theory, or really anything strategic rather than tactical, or simple logorrhea? I mean, if he feared it so much, why the early saber rattling with North Korea at the start of his presidency?

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Absolutely agree with the Bulwark piece’s main point - that Trump and certain GOP legislatures plans to overturn a Biden win need to be part of the campaign message in the coming months.  I will push back on this quote from Lessig though:

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Republican-controlled legislatures in several key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin—could throw the election. “If they wanted to do it in the safest way possible, meaning in a way to guarantee that they were to succeed,” Lessig said, “they would do it immediately after the election, because the time frame for the Court to intervene would be so short, it’s not clear the Court would have time to intervene.”

The courts responded incredibly fast in 2020, almost all of the Trump camp’s challenges were dismissed or adjudicated before the actual Electoral College vote in December.  Especially now with the ECRA, that should continue.  The ECRA also requires the “executive” in each state signs off on their electors, which mitigates the threat in a number of key states.

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1 hour ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

I've heard speculation that Trump is incredibly afraid of nuclear war, like it's an actual fear that he articulates pretty frequently.  

Something along the lines of his biggest concerns in life are golfing, being afraid of dying (specifically by nuclear war), and attending Andrew Lloyd Webber productions.

Never forget sharks:

Stormy said he told her that he wanted them all killed while watching shark week as he was cheating on his wife with her while not even having the decency to wear a condom. What a perfect look into one person's soul. 

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1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Fair enough, but is there evidence that he thinks in terms of nuclear arms races, game theory, or really anything strategic rather than tactical, or simple logorrhea? I mean, if he feared it so much, why the early saber rattling with North Korea at the start of his presidency?

Wait - you think his behavior with NK was Saber rattling? He was appeasing the fuck out of him! He gave more to NK in terms of legitimacy and respect than any potus has, by a large margin.

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1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Wait - you think his behavior with NK was Saber rattling? He was appeasing the fuck out of him! He gave more to NK in terms of legitimacy and respect than any potus has, by a large margin.

That came a bit later. I mean the "rocket man" insults and "fire and fury" bluster that came first.

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

Fez addressed what Congress can do and I agree.  My point was never about Article 5, btw, which was intentionally written to be vague so as to not directly compel any state into action.  Indeed, the US insisted on this latitude even back then. See here.

Vague or not, if the the US decides that alliance obligation are merely suggestions that would right now be the end of NATO. The European partners lack the firepower (figuratively and literally) to stop Russia, if he Putin decides that the independence of the Baltic states is rather optional - at least by means of conventional warfare. Sure France and/or the UK (a bit unlikely without the US telling them what to do) may decide that would be the moment to make use of their nuclear arsenal, but there might be a very justified hesitancy to go nuclear (literally).

And yes, the European nations would be as much to blame as the US.

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Accidentally posted in the UK thread originally.

https://emails.idfa.org/vo/?FileID=ed474941-dec8-491f-aa8b-a2a0967aa534&m=49552ff2-085e-4568-82ef-51844f544028&MailID=6771470&listid=1005940&RecipientID=10536309012

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Dear Dairy Community,
 
Earlier today, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued two important updates on the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) (H5N1) virus in dairy cattle as well as one person. 

CDC Updates – One Human Case Confirmed 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed that a person in the United States has tested positive for the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) (H5N1) virus, as reported by the Texas Department of Health and Human Services. According to the CDC, the person had exposure to dairy cattle in Texas presumed to be infected with HPAI. The patient reported eye redness (consistent with conjunctivitis), as their only symptom, and is recovering. The patient was told to isolate and is being treated with an antiviral drug for flu. 

CDC and Texas DSHS stated today that avian influenza (H5N1) viruses have only rarely been transmitted from person to person. As such, the risk to the general public remains low at this time.

I'm not saying the next pandemic is about to start, but a 'flu virus that successfully jumps species to humans is one of the candidates for the next pandemic. Still worth keeping an eye on the headlines until there stops being any headlines.

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The vein of "No-one is above the law" runs strong in Americans.

62% want SCOTUS to reject Trumps immunity defense in Jack Smiths election subversion case against the disgraced former President.

Poll: Most Americans want Supreme Court to reject Trump immunity claims

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/politics/poll-supreme-court-trump-immunity

Polls like this are helpful for my efforts to keep the faith in my fellow citizens. It is not always easy, more such poll results are welcome.

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On 4/1/2024 at 11:18 PM, DMC said:

BTW, relevant to the current discussion - McConnell: I’ll stay in the Senate and fight the GOP ‘isolationist movement’:

Also should be emphasized the two Senators currently running to replace him as leader - Thune and Cornyn - are not going to vote to withdraw from NATO either.  The GOP Senate thoroughly demonstrated Trump’s limitations during his presidency.  The idea it’s going to be different the second time around is decidedly an exercise in dark fantasy navel-gazing.

Mitch McConnel: American Savior? Nothing said by this guy should ever be taken at face value. 

And it's easy to say that Thune or Cornyn aren't going to want to leave NATO or they might try to check Trump, but history has already shown that Republicans, en masse, regardless of private statements, have no interest in preventing Trump from running roughshod over laws or the Constitution. If he is in office and says, "NATO is on their own", then how in the world can anyone think Republicans, if they control Congress, is going to tell him no? Or once Trump sends his DOJ to arrest/remove people on a whim?  The guy continues to violate a legal gag order and no one says boo. He posts, on his social media, an image of the sitting President hog tied and dead, and not a single Republican has said anything that indicates they think he should be held to the extent of the law that anyone else would be...

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Dyfunctional optimism.

In this case: The urneasonable expectation that they wouldn't get screwed over with the prospect of a huge payday. :dunno:

Wasn't part of this start up posse some of his The Apprentice rejects? I mean in this case, I feel quite comfortable to pass moral judgement on them and have very little sympathy for their woes. Fucking wannabe Finance Bros.

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10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Why… oh why… would anyone partner with that man for anything?

They didn't.  If you read the article.  They own stock, and he doesn't want to share because somethin'somethin'somethin he perceives they did to him back in the day.

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In our hearts we know it to be true -- his grand desire is to be a kingy-wingy.

Wheras his puppet masters's grand desire is to be THE xtian authoritarian white nationalist dominion state.  And, of course, get rid of this foolish idea of democracy and all that goes with it, including women's medical care.

Grand example of "We because We are We get to have it both ways. Literal, original intent of the Constitution when it comes to equality, who gets to vote, that women can't have medical care, but when it comes to holding office, we get it for life no matter what the Constitution and amendments explicitly state."

Believe what They tell us.  They've  believed this since at least Bushwa -- particularly since they successfully stole the election from Gore . Cheney literally died on television because he could not believe Obama won, they had it so sewn up.  Since Reagan it's been doctrine that only Rethugs are allowed to have the presidency, just like before Lincoln only southern slaveowners and their supporters were allowed the presidency.

The Twenty-second Amendment is an arbitrary restraint on presidents who serve nonconsecutive terms—and on democracy itself.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/trump-2028/

 

Since They've already turned a few cells inside a woman's uterus into a baby, a full human being, a person, with the right to vote (but only within the womb if it turns out to be XX) turning the heaping steaming pile into a kingy-wingy is clearly in effect already.

Edited by Zorral
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Also, one might sincerely wish people would stop putting their faith in the idea his health will remove the massive stinking pile anytime within the next half century. Look at Murdoch. Nothing will rid us of these sorts except stake through the heart, but as they have no hearts, it must be followed by beheading, and then burning, and all the ashes thrown into a volcano

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4 hours ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

Mitch McConnel: American Savior? Nothing said by this guy should ever be taken at face value. 

Yeah this is the type of absurd hyperbole I was referring to.  It was already mentioned that Murkowski and Romney would not go along with Trump on NATO.  Romney’s, of course, retiring, but McConnell would be another obvious example - as long as, ya know, he stays alive.  Not because of his words, but because of his actions.  Not to mention the fact Trump has absolutely zero political leverage on him and the two haven’t spoke in over three years.

And the fact of the matter is there are a significant amount of the Senate GOP Conference that Trump has minimal political leverage on.  Because he’s already destroyed the relationship and/or already tried to primary them and/or they’re simply serving out their terms at this point.  And virtually all of those members have already consistently voted against Trump’s position on NATO/Ukraine.  Like, seriously, what do you think Trump is going to do to them if they fight him on those issues?

It is different with Thune or Cornyn if one of them becomes leader - which does very much remain to be seen - but considering they’re the only two candidates right now, I think it’s notable.  And Thune in particular is likely to have a very similar approach to Trump that McConnell had during his first term.

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15 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah this is the type of absurd hyperbole I was referring to.  It was already mentioned that Murkowski and Romney would not go along with Trump on NATO.  Romney’s, of course, retiring, but McConnell would be another obvious example - as long as, ya know, he stays alive.  Not because of his words, but because of his actions.  Not to mention the fact Trump has absolutely zero political leverage on him and the two haven’t spoke in over three years.

Actions? Like voting against the bi-partisan border/aid deal he himself had basically been largely responsible for crafting, rather than fighting for it, because Trump told him to? I would never rely on McConnell for anything. 

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17 minutes ago, Makk said:

Actions? Like voting against the bi-partisan border/aid deal he himself had basically been largely responsible for crafting, rather than fighting for it, because Trump told him to?

…And a week later 22 GOP Senators voted for a clean foreign aid supplemental without the immigration provisions, which is what I’m talking about.

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