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US Politics: Time for the Stormy season with a chance of conviction


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3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Waiting on the results of the PA primary to see what lessons we can learn. Again, its going to be the number of Haley voters (she's still on the ballot I believe) and 'uncommitted' write-ins against Biden. 

Don’t really think the presidential vote is instructive at all at this point, but should be noted Pitt’s rep and squad member Summer Lee cruised to victory.  AIPAC considered funding a challenger, but ultimately realized it was a lost cause.

Edited by DMC
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The Senate overwhelmingly passed the foreign aid bill 79 to 18.  That was quicker than I expected.  It’s also a notable increase from the February bill, which passed 70 to 29.  Both Vermont Senators - Sanders and Welch - voted against it, as will as Oregon’ Jeff Merkley.  The rest of the nays were dumbass Republicans.

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Why narrow majorities and House gridlock are here to stay in 2024:

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The battle for the House will be determined by a smaller number of races than it has in at least the past two decades.

There are roughly 30 truly competitive seats, split about evenly between Democratic and Republican-held districts, according to a POLITICO analysis based on fundraising data, candidate recruitment and interviews with a dozen party strategists, incumbents and challengers.

 

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Why in hell is Mike Johnson coming to Columbia U today?  To visit Jewish students ... will he be visiting the Jewish students who are part and parcel of the protesting?

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Why in hell is Mike Johnson coming to Columbia U today?  To visit Jewish students ... will he be visiting the Jewish students who are part and parcel of the protesting?

"Please kids, we need Israel to hold the line until Christ finally comes down to obliterate all of the unbelievers there."

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Amid arrests and dark warnings about Jewish students’ safety, an editorial at the campus newspaper offered a far different view of the crisis.

https://slate.com/human-interest/2024/04/columbia-university-protests-presidents-jewish-students-encampment.html

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Q: .... It seems everyone is concerned that things will be getting worse. This weekend, Jake Tapper pointed to calls from an orthodox rabbi for Jewish students to stay home for their own safety. How does that square with what you’re seeing on campus?

A: Klein: I think that’s honestly ridiculous. I haven’t seen any threats or fear among the Jewish students at the university. I don’t know why there would be fear. On campus there’s really no reason why any student would be more scared now than they theoretically would have been in the past. And even then, I don’t really see any reason for fear. I guess the only potential justification that would make sense to me would be the number of outside protesters. Just that, as in any case, you don’t know who’s going to show up to a large demonstration. There’s always going to be bad faith actors of any kind of kind of mass rally. I think Columbia’s inability to vet these people I guess theoretically could be a cause for concern. But there haven’t been any incidents. ....

 

Columbia has a radio station, WKCR, "The Home of Technical Difficulty" which is broadcasting continuously what is happening on the campus concerning the protests and demonstrations. It is online, but regard its self-given subtitle.  There are no funds for anything for the radio station.  It's entirely volunteer, including the equipment.

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On 4/23/2024 at 6:42 AM, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Given that the US isn’t a direct participant… I’m not sure I understand the point of disrupting US Universities.

The US is still funding it and supplying them with arms, which is bad enough. Some of the universities, like Columbia, have endowment investment in companies that are doing business with Israel, like Amazon and Google (they have a $1.2bn cloud-computing contract with the state’s government), and Microsoft who has services used by Israel’s ministry of defense and Israeli civil administration. Then you have have some of their investments with Lockheed Martin.

Edited by Dawn Vibration
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Arizona House votes to repeal controversial 1864 abortion ban, with help of 3 Republicans

National Republicans and Trump should send those 3 Arizona Republicans a pretty awesome gift basket, cuz that law was going to be killer for them in November.

ETA:  To be clear the state Senate hasn’t repealed the law yet, I just expect they will.

Edited by DMC
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I do find it funny how Greg Abbot is saying that anti semitism is not allowed in Texas and that all the protestors should be arrested for it, which the decrying of anti semitism is clearly a crock of shit given how back in Dec of 2023 they first rejected a ban on associating with Nazi sympathizers and Holocaust deniers.



https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/02/texas-gop-antisemitism-resolution/
 

Also, now they want to police speech when they decried people rallying at universities years ago to counter the likes of Richard Spencer and other far right provocateurs that had ties to neo nazis and anti semites. 

Hell, Colleges and Universities that gave such people a platform said they had to because freedom of speech and they are about an exchange of ideas. 

Frankly, having militarized police shut things down is making this more of an issue than the actual protests would have if allowed to just continue on.

Edited by Dawn Vibration
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It looks like Arizona AG Kris Mayes (D, formerly an R) has indicted the AZ Fake Electors and some of Trump's crew as well.

The fake electors are the usual suspects of not-quite-right Republicans who jumped on the Trump bandwagon after failing at other business and political pursuits.

The Trump Circle crew includes the usual suspects - Meadows, Giuliani, Eastman, Ellis, Epshteyn, etc.

 

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Biden, Trump tied for first time in months in 3-way race with RFK Jr

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Biden and Trump are tied at 41.3 percent support, with Kennedy following at 7.7 percent, according to DDHQ’s average of 130 polls that asked respondents about a hypothetical three-way match-up in the 2024 general election.

Trump has consistently led Biden in the three-way hypothetical race since Nov. 8, when Biden briefly overtook Trump, 39.3 percent support to 39.1 percent. In December and into January, Trump maintained a statistically significant lead over Biden, but Biden began gaining on Trump early last month.

Thought I’d share this because it aligns with something I noticed yesterday looking at RCP’s latest polls - that in a number of them, Biden is actually doing slightly better in the polls that include the third party candidates than in head-to-heads with Trump

The first thing you see at RCP are seven swing state polls from Bloomberg/Morning Consult.  Should be noted these still don’t look good for Biden, but interestingly, in three of the states Biden is actually doing a point better in the 5-way race than the head-to-head.  The margin is the same in two other states, and Trump is doing better in the 5-way in the last two (much better in Nevada).

More striking is looking at the latest national polls.  In the latest Quinnipiac, the two are tied in both.  In a Marist poll, Biden leads by 5 in the five-way but only 3 in the head to head.  And NBC had Biden up by 2 in the 5-way while Trump was up by 2 in the head-to-head.

This could just be a blip, and the differences are effectively negligible, but I wanted to note the trend because it aligns with my prior:  that even if Kennedy does win substantial support in November, he may well take more votes from Trump than Biden - or at least have a neutral effect.

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I was just coming here to post that, but see I was too late. Eventually 3rd (and more) party support does wane towards November, so we'd expect the effect, whichever way it goes, to also be smaller down the line. Still, every bit helps, and RFK Jr is actually on the ballot in Michigan (havent checked other swing states).

Edited by IheartIheartTesla
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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

RFK Jr is actually on the ballot in Michigan (havent checked other swing states)

As of now, the only other two confirmed are Utah and Hawaii (there was just a ruling in his favor on the latter).  Here’s a good rundown of his camp’s reported efforts:

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Kennedy's campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.

The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.

And yet, the campaign has yet to complete the paperwork and submit the petitions in those states. It noted that it still has months in most states to submit the paperwork because most states' deadlines aren't until July or August.

 

Edited by DMC
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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

As of now, the only other two confirmed are Utah and Hawaii (there was just a ruling in his favor on the latter).  Here’s a good rundown of his camp’s reported efforts:

 

How much is the Trump campaign paying this asshat to be a spoiler?

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