US Politics: Redefining National Security

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Pres. Trump appears to love Andrew "the Genocide" Jackson.  He is lionizing the Old Possum for a reason.  He knows his biggest opposition will be the Courts.  The Courts, if denied access to the Executive's Judicial enforcement arm will have very little direct power to make Pres. Trump do anything.  It will demand a huge public outcry to give ignored orders force an impact.  

The Courts are a good place to go but recognize that their power is limited.

Several alt history or near-future dystopian books I've read had this very showdown as the most important step in establishing a dictatorship in America.  For example, in Harry Turtledove's Timeline 191 series, the President issues an edict that is popular, but obviously unconstitutional, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that it is unconstitutional, and the President announces "the courts are getting in the way of progress and making America Great Again!"  (I doubt he uses that exact phrase, but the sentiment is 100% the same).  The President then simply ignores the court, and because this particular issue is popular, the courts are gelded without much popular uprising.

If we are anticipating a Trump constitutional crisis, be on the lookout for an issue that is very popular with his base and not SUPER important to the opposition party, but still unconsitutional.  This recent immigration issue could qualify, but at the moment it seems very slapdash. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Several alt history or near-future dystopian books I've read had this very showdown as the most important step in establishing a dictatorship in America.  For example, in Harry Turtledove's Timeline 191 series, the President issues an edict that is popular, but obviously unconstitutional, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that it is unconstitutional, and the President announces "the courts are getting in the way of progress and making America Great Again!"  (I doubt he uses that exact phrase, but the sentiment is 100% the same).  The President then simply ignores the court, and because this particular issue is popular, the courts are gelded without much popular uprising.

If we are anticipating a Trump constitutional crisis, be on the lookout for an issue that is very popular with his base and not SUPER important to the opposition party, but still unconsitutional.  This recent immigration issue could qualify, but at the moment it seems very slapdash. 

I think this was a toe in the water to see what happens.  That will be their methodology I suspect.  If they do something that gets little response they'll press.

[Dr. Pepper]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think this was a toe in the water to see what happens.  That will be their methodology I suspect.  If they do something that gets little response they'll press.

Little response as in from their own party?  Their base?  Or as in including the protests and even near unanimous pushback from Christian leaders?
 

Thanks for the explanations.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Several alt history or near-future dystopian books I've read had this very showdown as the most important step in establishing a dictatorship in America.  For example, in Harry Turtledove's Timeline 191 series, the President issues an edict that is popular, but obviously unconstitutional, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that it is unconstitutional, and the President announces "the courts are getting in the way of progress and making America Great Again!"  (I doubt he uses that exact phrase, but the sentiment is 100% the same).  The President then simply ignores the court, and because this particular issue is popular, the courts are gelded without much popular uprising.

If we are anticipating a Trump constitutional crisis, be on the lookout for an issue that is very popular with his base and not SUPER important to the opposition party, but still unconsitutional.  This recent immigration issue could qualify, but at the moment it seems very slapdash. 

clearing quote

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Little response as in from their own party?  Their base?  Or as in including the protests and even near unanimous pushback from Christian leaders?
 

Thanks for the explanations.

I think all of the above.  

[Toth]

Wow... this is getting really pessimistic here. And here I am still grasping at the straw that Trump is merely incompetent and corrupt and would erode democracy only by accident. I know, I know, the real danger are his puppeteers exploiting his whims, but still...

Anyway, I am somewhat reminded of that weird ass dream I had two days ago. In which Trump makes the US leave UN and NATO over some stupid quarrel with the other member nations and Putin comes in, shrugs and offers to take the helm in both institutions. Yes, even NATO. And he's applauded for his level-headedness while the US returns to the isolationist policy of the early 20th century.

[Jaxom 1974]

23 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Several alt history or near-future dystopian books I've read had this very showdown as the most important step in establishing a dictatorship in America.  For example, in Harry Turtledove's Timeline 191 series, the President issues an edict that is popular, but obviously unconstitutional, the Supreme Court issues a ruling that it is unconstitutional, and the President announces "the courts are getting in the way of progress and making America Great Again!"  (I doubt he uses that exact phrase, but the sentiment is 100% the same).  The President then simply ignores the court, and because this particular issue is popular, the courts are gelded without much popular uprising.

If we are anticipating a Trump constitutional crisis, be on the lookout for an issue that is very popular with his base and not SUPER important to the opposition party, but still unconsitutional.  This recent immigration issue could qualify, but at the moment it seems very slapdash. 

Of course, it was the Confederate Hitler analog that did this though...so I guess that continues to make it apt...

[Martell Spy]

Quote

Of course, it was the Confederate Hitler analog that did this though...so I guess that continues to make it apt...

 

Can we get away with Hitler Trump comparisons if we just call him Confederate Hitler instead?

[DunderMifflin]

Let's be thankful for the History Channel for continuing to show us Hitler 1.0, or else kids might think Hitler was just some dude that was unpopular with celebrities.

 

[Werthead]

As Senator Warren said, the majority of people thought Trump was going to be a poor president, but not an unmitigated disaster on this scale, this quickly.

 

The problem with running a country like a business is that it does not work. In a business deal you are always trying to get the best result possible for your company, your bosses, your shareholders or your bank balance, including totally screwing the other guy over, manipulating the system so you don't pay taxes, don't pay contractors or making sure you are "too big to fail" so banks will always bail you out. Trump has a constant history of doing exactly this.

 

Ruling as president of a democracy is different, especially if you've lost the popular vote. You are effectively ruling without a mandate, so you should really take a more conciliatory approach, because you are representing everybody, even those who voted against you. At the very least, run your ideas past lawyers and come up with very clear rules that everybody can follow and which are fully compatible with both prior law and the US Constitution. Obama got shit for his use of executive orders, but he also ran each order past legal advisors (even independent ones outside the government and Constitutional experts) multiple times before enacting them. Trump doesn't even seem to be bothering to contact the heads of his own agencies that will have to enact the orders.

 

Instead Trump thinks he is now CEO of American Inc. and now everybody in the country is his employee, whom he can "fire" back to their country of origin if they are not US citizens, or withdraw help and support for if they are. He believes his Executive Orders are corporate memos which everyone has to obey without question. His administration has already told border officials to ignore court orders, because he already believes that he is above the law.

 

This first battle will be the most crucial. If people back down over this one and let Trump get his way, worse will be to come. As his war of words escalates with Mexico, expect to see a similar travel ban imposed there and increasingly dangerous escalations with China, North Korea and Iran, as a way of distracting people from internal dissent. A key point would be the introduction of restrictions for people buying firearms, but only if they are black, or from Chicago, or an act along those lines. Possibly something similar for those of Mexican origin living near the border. But of course the rights of white people to bear arms will be reaffirmed, and possibly even relaxed. There may also be some kind of official recognition for local militias so they can "assist" law enforcement in dealing with illegal aliens and criminals (co-opting the biggest threat - the mass of armed Americans with a suspicion of government - is a key move).

 

That's why this first controversy is so crucial: force Trump to back down and act within his boundaries, then there may be some hope that this presidency will be survivable (for him personally, Americans, or the world).

Quote

 

That leaves one option and we all know what it is and it's probably going to come to that. People like Trump and Bannon, who seem to be giddy with power, don't give it up once they have it. Ever. 

 

A nightmare scenario right now is that Trump is assassinated, as this will trigger a massive counter-reaction from those who voted for him and his more virulent supporters. Some may believe that it means open season on those who disagree with them. It may also encourage Bannon and co. to move more determinedly to seize power. A lot would depend on where Pence's loyalties and ambitions lie: if he's still at heart a "standard" Congressional Republican or has been sucked up in the ideology of Bannon and co.

 

44 minutes ago, Toth said:

Wow... this is getting really pessimistic here. And here I am still grasping at the straw that Trump is merely incompetent and corrupt and would erode democracy only by accident. I know, I know, the real danger are his puppeteers exploiting his whims, but still...

Anyway, I am somewhat reminded of that weird ass dream I had two days ago. In which Trump makes the US leave UN and NATO over some stupid quarrel with the other member nations and Putin comes in, shrugs and offers to take the helm in both institutions. Yes, even NATO. And he's applauded for his level-headedness while the US returns to the isolationist policy of the early 20th century.

This is what China has done on a business scale, making it clear to other Asian and European countries that they represent stability, the status quo, the furtherance of making money and not rocking the boat. They've identified that Europe and Asia are going to be far too worried about Trump blowing something up because of a Twitter spat to make much noise about China's treatment of Tibet or Hong Kong, and on the big picture scale they may be right.

[Fragile Bird]

So, we all remember the report from Christopher Steele, the golden showers report, much maligned by Trump as a work of fiction, right? One of the items in the report was the rumours that Putin had offered Trump 19% of Rosneft, the state owned oil company, in exchange for favors done for Russia, like lifting sanctions.

Reuters has reported that 19.5% of the company was sold/transferred to someone in December,  sounding like 19% + .5% commission. However, the transfer has been done through such a maze of companies in different countries the transferee can't be uncovered. It does seem to be rooted in a Cayman Island company.

This fact popped up in an article on my Facebook page that I can't link because right now I just have a tablet with me on vacation. I'm sure it can be done but I haven't figured out how yet. Maybe someone else has seen the article, which lists 6 things that Trump has done and the possible underlying reasons why. It organizing for a coup d'etat...

ETA: this tablet has an extremely aggressive spellchecker that cannot seem to deal with apostrophes. It keeps adding words to the end of contractions, like turning don't into don'the all by itself. It just tried to change turning into Turing.  World's into world'series.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

So, we all remember the report from Christopher Steele, the golden showers report, much maligned by Trump as a work of fiction, right? One of the items in the report was the rumours that Putin had offered Trump 19% of Rosneft, the state owned oil company, in exchange for favors done for Russia, like lifting sanctions.

Reuters has reported that 19.5% of the company was sold/transferred to someone in December,  sounding like 19% + .5% commission. However, the transfer has been done through such a maze of companies in different countries the transferee can't be uncovered. It does seem to be rooted in a Cayman Island company.

This fact popped up in an article on my Facebook page that I can't link because right now I just have a tablet with me on vacation. I'mean sure it can be done but I haven'the figured out how yet. Maybe someone else has seen the article, which lists 6 things that Trump has done and the possible underlying reasons why. It organizing for a coup d'etat...

Yup. There's more on that here, which is quite interesting. The same author also breaks out a "worst case scenario" article here, which I'd find more hysterical if it also wasn't quite convincing, especially the early declaration of war against academics which has already taken place.

I'd say that the recovery of those tapes, along with Trump's tax returns, should now be a priority for those organisations with the ability to find them (WikiLeaks and Anonymous are already on it, but they'll probably need support from within Russia). A primary concern must be that these tapes and sources will come out, showing Trump being bribed by the Russian government, weeing on prostitutes and not paying a penny in taxes in the US for years, and a lot of people will still not give a shit in the slightest.

There definitely seems to be a growing number of Republicans going WTF about this, rather earlier and potentially in greater numbers than expected. That may be encouraging.

[Martell Spy]

Senate Dems will filibuster Trump’s Supreme Court nominee
It will be only the second time in modern history that the Senate has mounted a filibuster against a nominee.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/senate-democrats-filibuster-supreme-court-pick-234368

[Ran]

Bear in mind that the sale of 19% of Rosneft has been planned and publicly pursued since March or April. Steele's memo, dated October, isn't revealing anything new. Doesn't mean there's nothing to the report -- I suspect some of the memo's contents are accurate to some degree -- but this particular bit didn't provide evidence either way,

Weirdly, Igor Sechin's right hand man, a former KGB guy himself, was found dead in his car last month. The very first report from Russian media was that he was murdered, quickly updated to indicate unknown cause, and there has been little more in the Russian press. Conspiracy theorists wonder if he wasn't one of Steele's indirect sources. Much as some wonder about the four information security and FSB types being charged with treason.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well, I've seen a bunch of reports on polls conducted in the United States in the last few days about support for Trumps immigration ban on travelers from high risk countries. And while the margin differs, all the polls seem to show more people supporting the ban than opposing it. Some have it as high as 59% supporting it, others as low as the mid forties, but still higher than the opposing view.

The polls were taken on different days, so I don't know if the negative reaction is scaring off some people who were formerly in support of it. But at the very least, it seems a majority of Americans appear to ideologically favor his position on this issue.

As I said, the polls seem a bit all over the place, and I'm not sure which are sufficiently representative. But there certainly is no overwhelming view in opposition to his action. In fact, if anything, more seem to support it than oppose it.

[Ran]

It's too soon for any serious polls to have a measure of response to the absurd chaos of it all, especially as it is still developing in terms of court actions, responses, etc. This will be clearer, public opinion wise, by Friday I expect.

[Dr. Pepper]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, I've seen a bunch of reports on polls conducted in the United States in the last few days about support for Trumps immigration ban on travelers from high risk countries. And while the margin differs, all the polls seem to show more people supporting the ban than opposing it. Some have it as high as 59% supporting it, others as low as the mid forties, but still higher than the opposing view.

The polls were taken on different days, so I don't know if the negative reaction is scaring off some people who were formerly in support of it. But at the very least, it seems a majority of Americans appear to ideologically favor his position on this issue.

As I said, the polls seem a bit all over the place, and I'm not sure which are sufficiently representative. But there certainly is no overwhelming view in opposition to his action. In fact, if anything, more seem to support it than oppose it.

Isn't there a post from you in this very thread about how polls are dumb and useless?  

[Ice Queen]

33 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

So, we all remember the report from Christopher Steele, the golden showers report, much maligned by Trump as a work of fiction, right? One of the items in the report was the rumours that Putin had offered Trump 19% of Rosneft, the state owned oil company, in exchange for favors done for Russia, like lifting sanctions.

Reuters has reported that 19.5% of the company was sold/transferred to someone in December,  sounding like 19% + .5% commission. However, the transfer has been done through such a maze of companies in different countries the transferee can't be uncovered. It does seem to be rooted in a Cayman Island company.

This fact popped up in an article on my Facebook page that I can't link because right now I just have a tablet with me on vacation. I'm sure it can be done but I haven't figured out how yet. Maybe someone else has seen the article, which lists 6 things that Trump has done and the possible underlying reasons why. It organizing for a coup d'etat...

ETA: this tablet has an extremely aggressive spellchecker that cannot seem to deal with apostrophes. It keeps adding words to the end of contractions, like turning don't into don'the all by itself. It just tried to change turning into Turing.  World's into world'series.

Try this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisation-insight-idUSKBN1582OH

[IamMe90]

On a lighter note... http://usuncut.news/2017/01/30/sean-spicer-retweeted-the-onion-and-the-internet-will-never-let-him-live-it-down-screenshots/

Dear god, the constant influx of shit-that's-too-stupid-to-be-real from this administration is mind numbing. 

[Ice Queen]

55 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yup. There's more on that here, which is quite interesting. The same author also breaks out a "worst case scenario" article here, which I'd find more hysterical if it also wasn't quite convincing, especially the early declaration of war against academics which has already taken place.

I'd say that the recovery of those tapes, along with Trump's tax returns, should now be a priority for those organisations with the ability to find them (WikiLeaks and Anonymous are already on it, but they'll probably need support from within Russia). A primary concern must be that these tapes and sources will come out, showing Trump being bribed by the Russian government, weeing on prostitutes and not paying a penny in taxes in the US for years, and a lot of people will still not give a shit in the slightest.

There definitely seems to be a growing number of Republicans going WTF about this, rather earlier and potentially in greater numbers than expected. That may be encouraging.

Damn, that was depressing. And frightening. 

Edit: In the Trial Balloon piece, did you read the first comment? Passengers on airplanes being forced to give up their green cards midair and to sign a form giving up their residency? And what the hell happened at Dulles when two Congressmen couldn't get to the detainees because they were blocked by armed guards working for DHS?

None of this has been on the news. It's been on social media, though.