Football: The art of lowering expectations

[Iskaral Pust]

1 hour ago, MercurialCannibal said:

toon will hand liverpool their first defeat. truth. 

Rafa always gets a draw against Liverpool. I think we might have only a single victory against him as a manager.  He can park a bus as well as Mourinho. 

[BigFatCoward]

3 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Rafa always gets a draw against Liverpool. I think we might have only a single victory against him as a manager.  He can park a bus as as Mourinho. 

How dare you compare the two. 

[polishgenius]

5 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

You mean when Ben Mee broke Joe Gomez’ shin?  Yeah, we’re always exaggerating like that. 

Look at this shocking tackle by VVD.  Oh wow, that means Liverpool are a filthy team who only go out to clog people!!!

I mean, by most accounts (though I'll happily see a video so I can make my own mind up) the Mee challenge on Gomez wasn't even a bad one, just one of those unfortunate things where Gomez fell badly into the hoardings. Iirc even one of you here said that during the game.

[BigFatCoward]

If Man City don't win the league this year (though I still expect them too) how does this affect the perception of Pep as a manager? Playing devils advocate

Barca, best player in the world, other generational talents, 2 team league.

Bayer, one team league, couldn't cut it in Europe.

Man City, wins title 1 time in 3 years, couldnt cut it in europe despite having by far the strongest squad and unlimited resources. 

Really with the players and teams he has had at his disposal has he done anything out of the ordinary, other than the style he has teams playing, (which is not to be disregarded)? There is a good argument to say he has won the least you would expect of him.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

43 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

If Man City don't win the league this year (though I still expect them too) how does this affect the perception of Pep as a manager? Playing devils advocate

Depends. Assuming City stays on course and they finish with a championship worthy number of points it won't change the perception of him. So if he finishes runner up with point tally in the high 80s or even above 90 points, then it's really more down to credit where credit is due, and the focus will be soley on the new champions. But overall it's premature to write City off, just yet. I mean what happened objectively. They lost to Chelsea (that people refer to that as slip up is rather testament to the strength of City) and they slipped against Palace at home. Only the latter really qualifies as a huge upset.

Liverpool (or Spurs or anybody else for that matter) will also drop points at an unexpected venue at some point during the season.

54 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Really with the players and teams he has had at his disposal has he done anything out of the ordinary, other than the style he has teams playing, (which is not to be disregarded)? There is a good argument to say he has won the least you would expect of him.

Did he underachieve with any of his clubs? I think that's a more fair question. He implemented his style of play at Barcelona and turned them into that nigh invincible beast, that made pretty football look easy. He went to Bayern and also improved on them footballing wise. And he duly collected the league three times and the cup twice during his three year stint.

The CL is a different beast. It is a cup competition with the best teams in the world competing in it, and one bad day at the office during the knock out stage means you are out. With Bayern it was a bit more tricky, as in they had under his helm the league more or less won by March (clinched at some point in April) and it's tough to change gears from practice mode (league) back into competition mode against equally good teams.

His reign at City, well, you can see it for yourself, and how easy he made it look.

 

[baxus]

18 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

If Man City don't win the league this year (though I still expect them too) how does this affect the perception of Pep as a manager? Playing devils advocate

Barca, best player in the world, other generational talents, 2 team league.

BayerN, one team league, couldn't cut it in Europe.

Man City, wins title 1 time in 3 years, couldnt cut it in europe despite having by far the strongest squad and unlimited resources. 

Really with the players and teams he has had at his disposal has he done anything out of the ordinary, other than the style he has teams playing, (which is not to be disregarded)? There is a good argument to say he has won the least you would expect of him.

Being a Liverpool fan who doesn't want to jinx anything, I must point out that City not winning the league this season is still a long way away. There's more than enough time until May for them to turn this around.

That being said, IF Pep doesn't win the league ti is certain to raise some questions about Pep's quality as a manager. I mean, he'd still be one of the best managers in football but it would make a case for people who are saying he's not all he's hyped up to be.

While his results with Bayern were to be expected, with BundesLiga being a one team league (at least at the time he was in charge at Bayern) as you put it, I do think winning trophies with Barcelona count as "out of the ordinary". Managing big star players is definitely not an easy feat. Now, judging by all reports from the time, that Barcelona squad was as diva-free as one could hope for and he did just carry out the club's vision of how the game should be played. Still, he did introduce Messi to the big stage in the best possible manner, he did have the whole squad click like no other I've ever seen before or since and he did win a bunch of trophies both in Spain (against a real strong Real team) and in Europe.

I don't watch BundesLiga so I missed his time at Bayern, but the way he has City playing and the way he changed that team are clear signs that he knows what he's doing and deserves all the credit he's getting.

Premier League is much more difficult to win but he's won that one, too. I don't think there's a single club that can count on winning it year in, year out like Ferguson's United has. There's too much quality in the league for such a dynasty to form.

[Mark Antony]

He could go on and win CL this year still too. He should really just focus all of his efforts on that  

Milan need to fucking sack Gattuso already before they throw away a shot at fourth. 

[ljkeane]

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

Really with the players and teams he has had at his disposal has he done anything out of the ordinary, other than the style he has teams playing, (which is not to be disregarded)? There is a good argument to say he has won the least you would expect of him.

I wouldn't necessarily say that you'd judge Guardiola too harshly on the basis of not winning the league this year assuming they didn't have a massive collapse. It looks like it'd take Liverpool, or maybe Spurs, getting 95 plus points to win the league at the moment and you'd expect City to have something close to the most points a side's ever had coming second. It wouldn't exactly be a success for Guardiola but it'd be a bit harsh to call it a massive failure either.

It's hard to downgrade him for his Barcelona tenure either. Ok, he was gifted with a very talented squad but he put out probably the best team I've ever seen, which certainly wasn't guaranteed even with the talent there.

I'd say the one question mark would have to be his European record post Barcelona. Ok it's a cup competition so you can have upsets but if he fails to get any wins in 5 attempts with Bayern and City (I wouldn't count his first year at City when he was putting his side together) after this season I'd say it's a bit of a blemish on his record.

 

[Heartofice]

Zidane won 3 Champions leagues in a row, and yet I still don't think of him as a good manager. Pep for me is almost god-like in his coaching ability and his tactical thinking. Having said that there have been a number of occasions where Pep has been out-thought or made changes that were clearly mistakes, I can think of a couple at Bayern. 

I think Pep is actually very good at adapting his sides and improving their weaknesses. He has been a little unfortunate this season with KDBs injury, as he was incredible last year. I think more importantly they are over reliant on Fernandinho as they don't have a great replacement for him.  

[mormont]

21 minutes ago, baxus said:

That being said, IF Pep doesn't win the league ti is certain to raise some questions about Pep's quality as a manager.

I mean, it's certain some people will ask those questions. It's also certain they'll be doing it to generate clicks or appear clever. And it's also certain that those questions will not be valid. If Pep doesn't win the league this year, that does not change why he is, without doubt, the most important and influential manager to emerge in the last decade. (Klopp may eventually have a rival claim, to be fair.)

[baxus]

35 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

I'd say the one question mark would have to be his European record post Barcelona. Ok it's a cup competition so you can have upsets but if he fails to get any wins in 5 attempts with Bayern and City (I wouldn't count his first year at City when he was putting his side together) after this season I'd say it's a bit of a blemish on his record.

I googled it a bit and he'd reached CL semifinals every season he was at Bayern. Wouldn't call that a failure, even for a club of Bayern's size.

14 minutes ago, mormont said:

I mean, it's certain some people will ask those questions. It's also certain they'll be doing it to generate clicks or appear clever. And it's also certain that those questions will not be valid. If Pep doesn't win the league this year, that does not change why he is, without doubt, the most important and influential manager to emerge in the last decade. (Klopp may eventually have a rival claim, to be fair.)

Sure, it will be a publicity thing. As I said, Premier league quality is too high for winning the title to be the measure of manager's quality. I mean, you MUST be a great manager to win it, but every season there are quite a few great managers that don't.

Guardiola is definitely one of the greatest (call it most important, most influential, most whatever) managers of the current era, with a legitimate claim to the title of THE greatest.

[ljkeane]

Just now, baxus said:

I googled it a bit and he'd reached CL semifinals every season he was at Bayern. Wouldn't call that a failure, even for a club of Bayern's size.

Bayern, especially with Dortmund on the slide by the time he took over, were almost guaranteed to win the league every year when he was there. They brought him in to win the Champions League and he failed to do so with a squad who'd done it in style under Heynckes the year before. It wasn't a disaster by any means but I'd call it a failure.

[polishgenius]

Pep pretty unequivocally made Bayern worse as soon as he arrived and never really brought them back up to the level they had been, but at the same time they were (1) still great and (2) he did adjust what he was doing in a way I hadn't thought he could, refocusing on more direct wing play to get the most of Lewandowski as a pure striker rather than trying to pure replicate Barca with Lewy as his long-time dream of the 'pivot' forward which he initially tried when he came in.

[Consigliere]

1 hour ago, baxus said:

Now, judging by all reports from the time, that Barcelona squad was as diva-free as one could hope for and he did just carry out the club's vision of how the game should be played.

I'm not so sure about that. I don't think the situation was all that rosy. Barca had quality players but there was a partying culture at the club which is why one of the first things Pep did was get rid of Ronaldinho and Deco and froze out Eto'o who was eventually sold a year later. There was an article not too long ago where Begiristain says that the very first thing Guardiola set out to do at Barca was to sort out how players behaved and to re-instil the club culture that was prevalent under Cryuff. Pep's mantra to players was their talent gets them into the dressing room but their behaviour determines whether they stay there. He even had his assistant (Estiarte) constantly observing players behaviour and anyone stepping out of line were told to either fit in or find a way out.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Made Bayern worse?

I will just paste a few numbers here.

Season 11/12 with Klopp winning the league with Dortmund the second time in a row.

1		Borussia Dortmund (M)		34		25	6	3		80:25	55		81
2		Bayern München		34		23	4	7		77:22	55		73

 

(M reigning Champion, P reigning Cup winners)

the 12/13 season, with prime Bayern winning everything for Heynckes swan song. That was pretty much a record season for them. So tough to repeat.

1		Bayern München		34		29	4	1		98:18	80		91
2		Borussia Dortmund (M, P)		34		19	9	6		81:42	39		66

13/14 Guardiola's first year. He kept them on the same level. Heynckes managed to lose one game less, draw one more. Note that Dortmund did better pointwise this year. So much for failing Dortmund.

1		Bayern München (M, P)		34		29	3	2		94:23	71		90
2		Borussia Dortmund		34		22	5	7		80:38	42		71

This year was Dortmunds off year after the World Cup, and Klopp announcing he would make room at the end of the season after an abysmal first half. The second half of their season was pretty good (which often gets lost here). So, will extend that table a bit. Yes, Bayern had less points, but were on cruise control pretty early and missing Ribery and Robben with longer injuries in the second half.

1		Bayern München (M, P)		34		25	4	5		80:18	62		79
2		VfL Wolfsburg		34		20	9	5		72:38	34		69
3		Bor. Mönchengladbach		34		19	9	6		53:26	27		66
4		Bayer 04 Leverkusen		34		17	10	7		62:37	25		61
5		FC Augsburg		34		15	4	15		43:43	0		49
6		FC Schalke 04		34		13	9	12		42:40	2		48
7		Borussia Dortmund		34		13	7	14		47:42	5		46

Guardiola's last year at Bayern and Tuchel's first. Note that Bayern are back to their close to 90 points season and Dortmund has posted a pretty good season, too. Just not good enough. (I think they were the pointwise the best second place finish in Bundesliga history, but I am too lazy to check).

1		Bayern München (M)		34		28	4	2		80:17	63		88
2		Borussia Dortmund		34		24	6	4		82:34	48		78

 

 

[Philokles]

Tuchel’s first season at Dortmund was one of the best I have seen from a side that failed to win the league. They went downhill after Hummels, Gundogan and Mkhitaryan (who had his only good season in Western Europe that season) left.

 

Done the double over top of the league . Two of their three league defeats this season.

[Iskaral Pust]

Everton are smashing Burnley so far.   Good rebound for them. 

[polishgenius]

Quote

I will just paste a few numbers here. 

Numbers are great, but all they show is that they were good enough to beat most of the Bundesliga comfortably regardless. When it came to how they looked against the best and especially in Europe though... yes, they were worse. Heyncke's team made the best teams in Europe look like children. Guardiola's didn't.



Fred's been banging out the long-range forward passes today. Another one who's obviously felt the pressure come off and is now enjoying himself, he never did that under previous management.

[AncalagonTheBlack]

yessss!!!

[AncalagonTheBlack]

Man City losing by a goal.C'mon Leicester!!

Super Fab(ino) goal!!