Fez Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 In the words of Ron Burgundy, "wow, that escalated quickly." It seems likely that the vast majority of these people almost certainly do not have the virus. It sounds like nearly all are just people who were in one of the countries that has had an outbreak. But still; kind of a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Oh fuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Oh fuck Did you see my post about how angry Trump was that these folk were allowed to return to the US? They should have been ordered to remain in Japan! It seems to be the reason that Pence was named Covid-19 czar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Richard II Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Well fuck. And the point of my late night ambien rant from last night was that most people who think they've had the flu have never actually had the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filippa Eilhart Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said: Well fuck. And the point of my late night ambien rant from last night was that most people who think they've had the flu have never actually had the flu. they actually probably did “Adults catch real flu about once every five years, scientists calculate, based on a field study in China.“ https://www.bbc.com/news/health-31698038 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Richard II Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said: they actually probably did “Adults catch real flu about once every five years, scientists calculate, based on a field study in China.“ https://www.bbc.com/news/health-31698038 Yeah...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 A friend of mine just posted a Snopes article confirming that yes, indeed, Trump had the entire Pandemic Response Team at the Executive branch fired as a cost-saving measure. Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer ‘abruptly departed’ his position leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in 2018 and then his team was disbanded. And Tom Bossert, who WaPo reported called for a comprehensive bio defense strategy against pandemics and biological warfare, was fired the month before. You may recall that when a certain Colonel who testified about his concerns after hearing the infamous Ukrainian call was escorted out of the White House Trump said the NSC was ‘way too big’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castellan Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 4 hours ago, Darth Richard II said: Well fuck. And the point of my late night ambien rant from last night was that most people who think they've had the flu have never actually had the flu. I am sick of meeting young doctors who have had such blissful modern lives that they have obviously never had the flu themselves, and other people with the received opinion that people think they have the flu when they have a cold. I know the difference as I have had each many times including some pretty horrible flus that caused hospitalisations and peaks in deaths (not that that happened to me). I haven't had it so often since flu vaccines became available. PS I am not assuming you are a young doctor I am just saying this truism is out there and very annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 And in other racist reactions to COVID-19 news that would be funny if not for the racism: Sales of Chinese takeout food are down in New Zealand, and some outlets have had to cut staff because of a fall off in business. I mean, really! The disease is not even here yet and people are reacting like this. Although, if it does ever turn up here I think I will confine my takeout purchasing to places with drive through that way no mingling in the same airspace as strangers. And unfortunately we don't have any drive through Chinese (or any other ethnic foods for that matter. We don;t even have drive through pizza, so I guess it's Burger King or KFC. Taco bell is only in Auckland, so I can't even get drive thru "Mexican" where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 I've had the flu once and I have to say, you only realise the difference between a common cold and influenza once you've had the latter. Before I had a case of the flu, I was probably one of those who thought of it as a "very bad cold". According to the NY Times, the CDC has only been testing people with travel histories from China or contact with known cases, but this first community case means they're going to have to cast a larger net and there have probably been a whole lot of unreported cases. I will be astonished if this doesn't explode in the USA by the end of the weekend and the stock market will probably take another dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: A friend of mine just posted a Snopes article confirming that yes, indeed, Trump had the entire Pandemic Response Team at the Executive branch fired as a cost-saving measure. Rear Admiral Timothy Ziemer ‘abruptly departed’ his position leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in 2018 and then his team was disbanded. And Tom Bossert, who WaPo reported called for a comprehensive bio defense strategy against pandemics and biological warfare, was fired the month before. You may recall that when a certain Colonel who testified about his concerns after hearing the infamous Ukrainian call was escorted out of the White House Trump said the NSC was ‘way too big’. At the time it probably seemed like a good idea, and most people don't really understand that having a pandemic response tam / plan and maintaining the expense of such a thing is basically the same as health insurance, for the health system. Of course people looking for piecemeal cost cutting will look at a govt agency like this and think "we haven't needed this for X years, so why do we still have it? here's an easy few dollars we can save without causing any public stir." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ithanos Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 It's not unreasonable to compare Covid-19('s potential impact) with the Flu. The data here is US centric but we can infer how it may go in other countries. From the CDC's Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report, to the week ending 15 February 2020; Quote CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu. These figures may seem staggering, but it's distributed over a season, across the US populus of ~330million, and managed by a healthcare system with a capacity estimated at over 950,000 hospital beds (2013 data). The concern with Covid-19 is uncontrolled spread resulting in an avalanche of hospitalizations - on top of what healthcare systems are coping with now. Because Covid-19 doesn't yet have the following measures, that we have to combat the Flu, to stem it to a manageable level. Quote Interim estimates of 2019-2020 flu vaccine effectiveness were released this week. So far this season, flu vaccines are reducing doctor’s visits for flu illness by 45% overall and 55% in children. Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jeor said: I've had the flu once and I have to say, you only realise the difference between a common cold and influenza once you've had the latter. Before I had a case of the flu, I was probably one of those who thought of it as a "very bad cold". Very much the same for me as well. The couple of times I've had it stick out with fever dream/nightmares that were very trippy and at one point walking in circles in my living room because everything was awful and that somehow seemed like it would help. It didn't. AT - Unsurprisingly that racist behaviour is going on here as well, we've just decided to get Chinese delivery this weekend as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filippa Eilhart Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 10 hours ago, Darth Richard II said: Yeah...no. yes, but the study was done by UK scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Is that better? The study is from 2015 but I'm sure there are also older studies or just a common assumption, because I remember learning that it takes around 5 years for the flu virus to mutate enough so your body isn't immune to it. Also I don't understand why people think that everyone who gets the flu will have terrible symptoms. Flu is no different from other viruses, some people will have milder symptoms and some worse. Of course, in general, it's worse than a common cold, but you can't expect everyone who has the flu to be delirious " Actually, 20% to 30% of people carrying the influenza virus have no symptoms. " https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/10-flu-myths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Interactive up-to-the-date map of the infection https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 Wow, on the map our one confirmed case is on Kapiti Island. Only, the thing is, no one lives on Kapiti Island. The case is actually located in Auckland. The case was only confirmed today, so that map is seriously real time. It was in a person who arrived in New Zealand from Iran on 26 Feb. I'm not saying this validates anything I've previously written about Iran. But it is curious that our index case came from Iran. And here our govt was, believing where were in a nice cocoon because to told Chinese international students to stay home. Not to worry, we've now got a travel ban on anyone coming from Iran now. I'm sure we'll be fine. In good news, Chinese takeout purchases should start to go up. In bad news, now on top of racism we'll get a rise in Islamophobia and take out kebab sales will drop. Shit, I know quite a few Iranians who live in Auckland, I better check to see if it's someone I know. Quote Anyone who was on the final leg of the flight, Emirates EK450 arriving Auckland on Wednesday 26 February, and is concerned should contact the COVID-19 Healthline. The person arrived in Auckland on 26 February and travelled home in a private car. Their family became concerned about their condition and called Healthline. They were advised to seek medical attention and attended Auckland City Hospital emergency department that same day. All were wearing masks on arrival. As a result of the individual's symptoms and travel history they were admitted and tested. Two earlier tests were negative for COVID-19. A further test today (28 Feb) using a more specific sample proved positive. Contact tracing has started and close contacts are in isolation. Other close family contacts will also now be tested for COVID-19. "They came in wearing masks" the mostly useless "supermarket" brand masks that wouldn't likely be all that effective, or the actual good ones? The article does not say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said: Interactive up-to-the-date map of the infection https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 I see Brazil now have their first case... Mind you, it also suggests that UK's only individual is in Northern Ireland (announced today, at the same time as Wales' first case) I wonder how England's 17 feel about that? I'll stick to this one for now (love a good data map): https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 One of the great unknown factors in this whole thing is the diagnostic process. That there are limited testing facilities, limited testing kits and a delay in reaching a diagnosis are things that really hamper the stream of information that governments and others can use to counteract the spread. I'm sure this sort of thing is common with most diseases but all the built-in delays to the diagnostic process really rely on self-quarantine, and I don't know that's going to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jeor said: One of the great unknown factors in this whole thing is the diagnostic process. That there are limited testing facilities, limited testing kits and a delay in reaching a diagnosis are things that really hamper the stream of information that governments and others can use to counteract the spread. I'm sure this sort of thing is common with most diseases but all the built-in delays to the diagnostic process really rely on self-quarantine, and I don't know that's going to hold. Which is a problem - espeically when high prolfie people decide to set the example that it doesn't apply if you're self-entitled: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/26/zara-phillips-will-not-self-isolate-after-italy-trip-coronavirus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted February 28, 2020 Share Posted February 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Which Tyler said: Which is a problem - espeically when high prolfie people decide to set the example that it doesn't apply if you're self-entitled: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/feb/26/zara-phillips-will-not-self-isolate-after-italy-trip-coronavirus to be fair they are following current guidlines. They only need to self quarentine if they have come from one of the quarentied towns. If they have not visited one of those towns the current guidlines only say to stay indoors if they develop any sysptoms. I mean its crap, I think the advise is wrong, but they are following the current govenmental advise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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