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Fragile Bird

Taking it to the Streets - Covid-19 #12

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12 hours ago, felice said:

That means air is escaping at the top of the mask, which isn't ideal. Including a pipecleaner at the top that can be bent to match the shape of your nose can help. Or roll up some tin foil, if you don't have access to pipecleaners. Also, if you have more than one pair of glasses, some frames are better than others at working with the mask.

Also I've found simply getting used to breathing through my mouth, as opposed to through the nose, eliminated any fogging issues for me.

Lucky me I found a brand new unused respirator and two unused n95 masks tucked away in the corner of one of my work lockers. My hoarding ways, I'm sure that bag has been sitting untouched for at least a year. But was happy to find because the company is only handing out one crappy dust mask a week right now. I also have a couple large bandanas and a few homemade masks so I can alternate everything and keep stuff fairly hygienic. Am not looking forward to this type of routine going on until muggy weather though, at that point I will be beyond annoyed.

Fingers worrily crossed.

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8 hours ago, Fez said:

Not sure about that. Pretty sure I saw an article suggesting that cloth masks have maybe a 20% efficacy of protecting the wearer. Not great, but not nothing either. If I can bump that up to 30%, I'd absolutely do it. Still not great odds, but a big jump up.

It depends what you mean by 20% efficiency. Most of the experts quoted in articles about making your own masks seem to be saying, yes, it's theoretically possible to catch the virus by breathing in droplets or whatever suspended in the air but you're far, far more likely to catch it by touching something, then touching your face. The concern with home made face masks is you might reduce your risk of the very unlikely event of breathing in enough of the virus to be infected but if you end up touching your face a lot to adjust the mask you're increasing the far more likely risk of infecting yourself via transfer from surfaces.

 

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3 hours ago, ljkeane said:

It depends what you mean by 20% efficiency. Most of the experts quoted in articles about making your own masks seem to be saying, yes, it's theoretically possible to catch the virus by breathing in droplets or whatever suspended in the air but you're far, far more likely to catch it by touching something, then touching your face. The concern with home made face masks is you might reduce your risk of the very unlikely event of breathing in enough of the virus to be infected but if you end up touching your face a lot to adjust the mask you're increasing the far more likely risk of infecting yourself via transfer from surfaces.

 

I think masks are a bad idea for this specific reason. In one meeting last week I watched my coworkers each touch their masks like 10 plus times, and he's the real kicker, the masks they gave us are reversible, so people would take them off in their offices and forget which side they put on. When I was given mine I immediately saw this as a problem and marked one side, and told people to do the same, but most people dismissed it. 

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25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think masks are a bad idea for this specific reason. In one meeting last week I watched my coworkers each touch their masks like 10 plus times, and he's the real kicker, the masks they gave us are reversible, so people would take them off in their offices and forget which side they put on. When I was given mine I immediately saw this as a problem and marked one side, and told people to do the same, but most people dismissed it. 

I saw an older couple walk to the supermarket entrance with face masks dangling round their necks. Plus plenty of couples where one wears a mask but the other isn’t.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone remove their mask in order to cough.

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we have now the first numbers for overall mortality in Germany (there was a very interesting article in this thread a while back for other countries) its only for Northrhine-Westphalia, but since this is the most populated state, and one of those worst hit by corona, I think this numbers may be representativ for the whole country:

https://www.it.nrw/keine-erhoehte-sterblichkeit-im-maerz-2020-nordrhein-westfalen-99420

So 18800 people died in this state in March, last year it was 19100. You do not see any statistical relevant rise (on the figure you do see the bad flu season of 2018 though, there were more deads then)

Not only does it seem that there is no undercounting, but also it seems that the number of Covid-19 deads are not statistical relevant at all.

 

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8 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

I saw an older couple walk to the supermarket entrance with face masks dangling round their necks. Plus plenty of couples where one wears a mask but the other isn’t.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone remove their mask in order to cough.

You have to to sneeze, otherwise the thing is just disgusting. 

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@JoannaL interestingly, I just saw a news item on a Polish life-ticker (no link) saying there is a 30% increase in the number of deaths in France compared to previous years. 93K compared to an average of 71K between 1 March and 17 April.

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In less great news out of Germany though,

Germany's caseload may low enough that even being stuck at R0 of 1.0 is manageable for them. But if even in Germany the R0 started going up immediately after restrictions were first loosened, it bodes poorly for us other countries that aren't in as good shape as Germany.

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5 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

@JoannaL interestingly, I just saw a news item on a Polish life-ticker (no link) saying there is a 30% increase in the number of deaths in France compared to previous years. 93K compared to an average of 71K between 1 March and 17 April.

Interesting, I also saw the numbers here somewhere for the UK which also showed a distinct rise.

It must be that our outbreak is far less severe than  in other countries. This leads back to the prevention paradoxon. If our outbreak is not statistical relevant than the lock-down is an overreaction - but if we havent had a lock-down, perhaps we had other numbers?

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

In less great news out of Germany though,

Germany's caseload may low enough that even being stuck at R0 of 1.0 is manageable for them. But if even in Germany the R0 started going up immediately after restrictions were first loosened, it bodes poorly for us other countries that aren't in as good shape as Germany.

From what I've read, Germany's health system seems one of the most advanced and well-equipped in Europe so they can probably handle a small spike. But once R0 starts going north of 1.0, the situation may spiral out of control. Even a rate of 1.1 or 1.2 is enough to really compound the spread, as Merkel herself said.

I'm surprised we're getting data this early, to be honest. I expected that we wouldn't see a spike in infections from reopenings until 10-14 days after the reopenings, given the lengthy incubation time.

The US is going to be a walking time bomb with so many restrictions being relaxed across many states, it is clearly way too early and I think in two weeks' time we're going to see the ramifications of that. Sadly I think they're going to be on pace for well over 100K deaths at this rate.

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On 4/24/2020 at 11:57 PM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

People are offending Mayonaise. Isn't that like declaring cultural war on France?
Sorry, Rippounet, I am also not a huge Mayonaise fan.

Meh... I don't like the stuff much myself (only in sandwiches, and like most people I prefer actual meals), and I don't think I know anyone who really likes it either. GF says it's generally eaten with seafood (which I hardly eat).

12 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

@JoannaL interestingly, I just saw a news item on a Polish life-ticker (no link) saying there is a 30% increase in the number of deaths in France compared to previous years. 93K compared to an average of 71K between 1 March and 17 April.

I saw something similar, and not just for France but for a bunch of European countries.

BTW apparently our PM wants to make masks mandatory in public transportation.
Also there's a weird story about how France is butting heads with Google and Apple over the development of an ap' to trace Covid-19. France wanted a "centralized" ap' which apprently is a problem for i-phones and Apple doesn't want to implement any changes to its IP?? Not sure I get it, but it seems to also be about who gets to keep user data.

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4 minutes ago, Jeor said:

From what I've read, Germany's health system seems one of the most advanced and well-equipped in Europe so they can probably handle a small spike. But once R0 starts going north of 1.0, the situation may spiral out of control. Even a rate of 1.1 or 1.2 is enough to really compound the spread, as Merkel herself said.

I'm surprised we're getting data this early, to be honest. I expected that we wouldn't see a spike in infections from reopenings until 10-14 days after the reopenings, given the lengthy incubation time.

 

I think what we are seeing here is the Easter holidays not the cautious reopenings which were later.

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1 hour ago, Jeor said:

I'm surprised we're getting data this early, to be honest. I expected that we wouldn't see a spike in infections from reopenings until 10-14 days after the reopenings, given the lengthy incubation time.

My understanding is that the 14 days is the upper end of the range, but the average incubation time is ~5 days, so you'd start seeing effects sooner than 10-14 days.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

we have now the first numbers for overall mortality in Germany (there was a very interesting article in this thread a while back for other countries) its only for Northrhine-Westphalia, but since this is the most populated state, and one of those worst hit by corona, I think this numbers may be representativ for the whole country:

https://www.it.nrw/keine-erhoehte-sterblichkeit-im-maerz-2020-nordrhein-westfalen-99420

So 18800 people died in this state in March, last year it was 19100. You do not see any statistical relevant rise (on the figure you do see the bad flu season of 2018 though, there were more deads then)

Not only does it seem that there is no undercounting, but also it seems that the number of Covid-19 deads are not statistical relevant at all.

 

That is good news. 

Although the numbers for March 2019 or only preliminary and not final according to that site.

Edited by Luzifer's right hand

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2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Also there's a weird story about how France is butting heads with Google and Apple over the development of an ap' to trace Covid-19. France wanted a "centralized" ap' which apprently is a problem for i-phones and Apple doesn't want to implement any changes to its IP?? Not sure I get it, but it seems to also be about who gets to keep user data.

A centralised, server-based solution would be a nightmare from the perspective of privacy and data security*. The German government was also pushing for a centralised app, despite various experts warning against it, but gave up on it in the face of Apple and Google adamantly refusing to change their stance on the issue. I guess for once the duopoly of the mobile-OS-market has had a benificial side effect?

I'm personally not convinced that a tracking app is going to be all that useful. It'll have to err on the side of caution and bluetooth actually has quite a respectable range, which probably means that many, many people would be sent into prophylactic quarantine despite not having been truly exposed to any infected people.

 

*Germany's RKI already had a major fuck-up in this respect with an app that allows users to donate data from their fitness-tracking apps for research purposes during the Corona crisis.

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6 hours ago, ljkeane said:

It depends what you mean by 20% efficiency. Most of the experts quoted in articles about making your own masks seem to be saying, yes, it's theoretically possible to catch the virus by breathing in droplets or whatever suspended in the air but you're far, far more likely to catch it by touching something, then touching your face. The concern with home made face masks is you might reduce your risk of the very unlikely event of breathing in enough of the virus to be infected but if you end up touching your face a lot to adjust the mask you're increasing the far more likely risk of infecting yourself via transfer from surfaces.

 

The main purpose in having the general public wear masks is not to protect the individual wearer from infection, although it's great if it helps even a little.  The main purpose is to reduce the amount of droplets that are expelled by infected individuals.  If everyone wears a mask or facial covering, there should be a lot less droplets that are expelled into the environment, which should make the air in enclosed spaces more safe and surfaces more safe.  

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2 hours ago, Starkess said:

My understanding is that the 14 days is the upper end of the range, but the average incubation time is ~5 days, so you'd start seeing effects sooner than 10-14 days.

I was just reading an article on this story which says that their measurement is reflecting what R0 would have been a few days ago:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/28/germans-urged-to-stay-home-amid-covid-19-infection-rate-fears

For its own estimate of the reproduction number, the attempts to take into account the time lag by ignoring data from the last three days and back-dating known cases to their likely day of infection around a week earlier.

The reproduction number announced on Tuesday can therefore only give an indication of the pandemic’s development at a point about a week and a half ago, when a relaxation of social distancing measures had been announced by Angela Merkel but not yet come into effect.

Later on in the article there's some scepticism about the results:

Statistician Thomas Hotz, of Ilmenau University, said the model used by the RKI had a tendency to “smoothen out” the number of new infections by the method in which it tried to correct for the reporting delay. Hotz said his own model did not indicate a sudden rise of new infections, and that he believed the reproduction number was likely to stay below one in the next few days.

4 hours ago, JoannaL said:

I think what we are seeing here is the Easter holidays not the cautious reopenings which were later.

If the increase in R0 is genuine then that does seem plausible.

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Just saw the governor announced as of today  it's 31% .

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-updates-april-28

Quote

 

2:20 p.m. An average of 31 percent of New York City residents have tested positive for coronavirus over the last 14 days, according to data presented by Governor Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday.

Along with Long Island, which had the same testing percentage, New York City had the highest percentage of positive tests in the state. The mid-Hudson area, which includes Westchester County, had the second highest proportion of positive tests, at 28 percent.

 

 

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If accurate, that's remarkable and a very good sign for life going forward. As horrible as this has been this might mean that the mortality and high severity rate is far less horrible than we thought. 

It also means that the spread is far greater than we thought. 

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It’s good news and bad news. Whatever the mortality rate we still have almost 60k dead Americans already. One guy one time fails in an attempt to bomb a plane with his shoes (Harming nobody) and we all take our shoes off at the airport forever. 60,000 dead in three months and we can’t even decide everyone needs healthcare

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