US Election Predictions Thread

[Larry of the Lawn]

Biden: MI, WI, NV, AZ, NE2, ME, CO

Trump: OH, IA, NC, FL, GA, TX , PA

271-267

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

12 hours ago, Fez said:

Over 4 million people without any primary voting history in Texas voted in this election. Anyone who claims with any certainty what is happening in that state is a liar. Everything about the turnout there is unprecedented. Personally, I feel optimistic which I predicted Biden wins it. But I wouldn't be at all surprised if he didn't.

I'm feeling more optimistic about Georgia too, even though I didn't pick it. I should optimistic about Florida, but I guess I'm too superstitious. I don't see Ohio happening.

 

Dave Wasserman put out his prediction on Morning Joe:

 

High early-turning out doesn’t mean much by itself.

I predict by tomorrow we’ll just see those people are less reluctant/more energized Trump voters, instead of two to three points we’ll see see him go past 6 Points.
 

[Varysblackfyre321]

23 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Biden: MI, WI, NV, AZ, NE2, ME, CO

Trump: OH, IA, NC, FL, GA, TX , PA

271-267

 

Honestly I see this as the best case scenario for Biden.

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 hours ago, Ran said:

All right, with the Texas decision in . . . I'm going to shoot for the moon: my prediction. I think Texas is going blue: The enormous turnout in a state famous for its low propensity to turn out, with a high Hispanic population, with a strong demographic shift, all tells me that the drive is there for Democrats to come out. Trump could hardly have been said to have fired up Texas, ekeing out 52% -- losing 3%-ish to Gary Johnson -- and while there's no real third party, it feels to me like the odds of his reaching 52% this time around are slim to none, whereas Biden's absolutely going to run ahead of Clinton. 

Harry Enten pointed out that Biden's lead in polling in Florida is ahead of Hillary's at this point, , in a state she lost by only 1.2%. We all know -- or should know -- that the polling has better captured the dynamics of Trump's particular appeal to non-college educated persons and has weighted for them appropriately, so ... yeah, it looks good to me. I think the Puerto Rican turnout may counterbalance my fellow Cubans who are still stuck believing the GOP is the way, and I think black turnout may be underestimated. And seniors -- the seniors may make the difference.

Ohio, I'm thinking mostly about polling from yesterday that made it neck-and-neck. and since I believe most of the rust belt is going Biden's way (PA included), I think the momentum is blue.

And Georgia... I'd like to think my home state will go the right way. If we're lucky, the polls are underestimating just enough that not only does Biden win, but Ossioff manages to avoid a run off.

 

All of this I’m praying for, but honestly seems too good to be true if you’re supporting Biden.

Honestly any close race in Georgia or NC and even Arizona(which it will), will probably land in court where in Trump serendipity will toss out just enough to win.

[The Marquis de Leech]

13 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Did you mean NE-2?  Because it is polling much better for Biden than ME-2.  And in 2016, it was Trump +2, whereas ME-2 was Trump +10. 

Not trying to criticize, fluky things could happen.

Maine strikes me as a highly elastic state.

That said though, let's give both ME2 and NE2 to Trump, for an overall Biden victory of 289-249.

[Varysblackfyre321]

Oh final prediction; Biden wins the popular vote just above or below three points.

I'm predicting based on the slurry of polls that has Trump’s approval rating tittering around 45%.

Hopefully wrong, dread being right, good night.

[IheartIheartTesla]

@Maithanet, here is the final 538 prediction, exactly the same as our presidential map

I didnt actually plan it that way (more like a gut feeling), but it is where polls only averages are. Also, as Silver points out, this will almost certainly be wrong

Their Senate is 52/48 and House 239/198, so a bit different from my predictions

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Predictions:

Biden wins two out of the four: FL, NC, OH and TX, is a clear winner tonight even if the race can't be called with certainty for a few days.

Democrats regain the Senate with 51/52 seats.

Democrats slightly expand their majority in the House.

Democrats make huge gains in state legislatures, but it may not result in flipping as many chambers as we'd hope. 

Deuces to Doug Jones, thanks for beating a suspected pedophile a few years back.

Trump claims victory anyways. 

[A Prince of Dorne]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Predictions:

Biden wins two out of the four: FL, NC, OH and TX, is a clear winner tonight even if the race can't be called with certainty for a few days.

Democrats regain the Senate with 51/52 seats.

Democrats slightly expand their majority in the House.

Democrats make huge gains in state legislatures, but it may not result in flipping as many chambers as we'd hope. 

Deuces to Doug Jones, thanks for beating a suspected pedophile a few years back.

Trump claims victory anyways. 

This is exactly how I feel. I don't know which two, but thinking it will be two. I think Biden takes Arizona as well

[Ormond]

I don't think I know enough to really predict things. However, I did see an article that claimed that a candidate whose final polling averages in a state are over 50% has never lost that state in the end. Biden is over 50% in WI, MI, PA and my own NE-2 on 538 this morning, which should be enough for him to win. But I still find myself petrified by the possibility that Trump will somehow end up triumphing in the end. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Probably averaged Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen and Susqehanna to arrive at that number (or pulled out of his ass, who knows)

[Maithanet]

24 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Probably averaged Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen and Susqehanna to arrive at that number (or pulled out of his ass, who knows)

306 is the Electoral College count he got last time, so he's just saying he'll do it again, or better.  He can remember numbers that matter to him, like his EV count, but not unimportant stuff like whether bleach is safe to inject. 

[DMC]

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

@Maithanet, here is the final 538 prediction, exactly the same as our presidential map

I didnt actually plan it that way (more like a gut feeling), but it is where polls only averages are.

Translation:  You two are boring 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, A Prince of Dorne said:

This is exactly how I feel. I don't know which two, but thinking it will be two. I think Biden takes Arizona as well

AZ should be in the bag if turnout is normal.

[Denvek]

My prediction from across the pond.

Biden wins all three of Hilary Clinton's "blue wall" states - MI/WI/PA

Biden wins at least one, but not all, of FL/GA/NC/AZ/NE-2

Trump wins all three of the "leans Republican" states TX/IA/OH

[Corvinus85]

So NBC is declaring projected winners in various states, but their screens show... 0 votes reported in those states. FFS

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

31 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

PLEEEEEEASE, GEORGIA!!!!

I know I sound like the most broken record, but y'all don't know what it's like. Unless you live here. Thank god no one asks me where my "church home" is anymore or where I go to church.

I just assumed it was some stylish sex dungeon. 

[ThinkerX]

stopped off at the polls on my way back from work (Political mailers are done as of yesterday - YAY!). Given my location, the time, and a huge number of mail in/ early ballots even here in the frozen north, I may be among the last 100,000 people in the continental US to vote in this election.  Anyhow...

Alaska is 'safe' Trump territory.  Somebody must have coached him to include 'oil exploration' and 'ANWAR' in the same sentence in the correct order, because that is literally all it takes to win here - Alaska has been a corporate outpost for its entire history.  Much as I dislike Trump, I can't muster any genuine respect for Biden: to me he's about one step up from a potted plant.  Hence, I voted for the 'green guy' whose name escapes me.  Shoot me if you will over that one.  

I did vote for Al Gross (Senate) and Galvin (House), though I doubt either will win, and get right down to it, their strongest selling points to me is they are not R's. Both are democrats who masqueraded as independents, because hereabouts democrats are considered EVIL.  One a black/bright note, Don Young is freaking ancient - he has got to be one of the oldest congressmen still around.  I figure this will be his last term, so maybe next time.

There were two ballot initiatives here: Prop 1, which repeals a literal giveaway to the oil companies; and Prop 2, which introduces something called 'ranked choice voting.'  I voted yes on both, but doubt they'll pass - comes back to Alaska being a corporate outpost, and a lot of people happy with that situation despite getting screwed over.   

[Corvinus85]

welp, Ohio is turning in Trump's favor

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 11/1/2020 at 9:42 PM, DMC said:

Alright I'm gonna do this before the Niners game since afterwards I'll almost certainly be emotionally compromised.

President:  Popular Vote - Biden 53%, Trump 45.5%; Electoral College - Biden 369, Trump 169.

Florida is my white whale.  It was the only state I got wrong in 2012, which was embarrassing and ironic considering I lived there at the time.  Ultimately it boiled down to whether I think Biden's strength with seniors is legitimate.  I do.  Georgia and North Carolina were also really tough, but I'm going to lean towards the boost in turnout puts the Dems over the hump in each state.  Plus I think the black turnout will show up, which should significantly help in each state.  Ohio is almost exactly a tossup right now according to both 538 and RCP.  Tie goes to the the candidate with momentum, and that's definitely Biden.

I don't see it happening in Texas for Biden, and I don't like Iowa's demographics for Biden's coalition - particularly how reliant it is on the rural vote.

In terms of the popular vote, I expect the third party vote to be muted at 1.5%, which is about on par with where it was in 2012, 2008, and 2004.  After that, I expect Biden wins by 7.5 points.

Senate:  Democrats 54, Republicans 46.

Dems pickup AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, MT, SC; GOP picks up Alabama.  Both Georgia races go to runoffs, Warnock wins and Ossoff loses.  I think Bullock wins because of candidate quality.  Harrison's money and Graham's royal fuckups give SC to the Dems.  Greenfield has outrun Biden in Iowa throughout the campaign.  The first four are given if Biden wins by the above margin (ok, maybe not Cunningham, but very likely).

Warnock is going to face a decidedly weak candidate whether Loeffler or Collins comes in second, while Ossoff is still facing an incumbent with huge name/family ID in Georgia.  Warnock prevails due to increased Dem turnout based on the momentum of (what I'm assuming is) a strong Biden victory and a mobilized black vote.

House:  Democrats 247, Republicans 188.

Ugh, I didn't really want to explain this in detail but now I realize my prediction exactly aligns with Fez's.  Basically, my process was I started at a baseline of Dems 237, GOP 182.  The other sixteen I view as tossups are:

GOP held - CA-25, IL-13, MI-3, MN-1, MO-2, NE-2, NJ-2, NY-2, NY-24, OH-1, PA-10, VA-5.  Dem held - NY-11, NY-22, OK-5, UT-4.

After that it's pretty much a guesstimate, but based on national trends/generic ballot, gonna go with 10-6 Dems.

Governor:  Republicans pickup Montana.

No other races are competitive.  Unfortunately, WWE Superstar Greg Gianforte beats out Mike Cooney because the latter is not nearly as good a politician as Bullock.

State Legislatures:  Democrats pickup the North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas Houses.

I'm not gonna pretend I know a ton about state legislature races, but here's a good rundown of the states in which who holds the majority is competitive.  Scroll down to Table 1: CNalysis state legislative chamber ratings.  Other than the above three, I expect the results to align with their ratings.

May I reiterate my belief, that you were overly optimistic.

I am sitll cautiously optimistic about my Biden 270-280 EC votes and Democrats getting to 51 senate seats.