US Politics - The Liar in Winter

[Fragile Bird]

Georgia has confirmed Biden’s win. Trump picked up 1700 votes because uncounted ballots were found!

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Week said:

Serious enough to call the GA SoS asking about throwing out mail-in ballots, no? It's still completely fucking nuts even if it's just on a lark.

Obviously it's a travesty.  I mean serious as in has a serious chance of success, or seriously thinks the effort is legitimate.

[SFDanny]

Here is the announcement from Georgia:

Quote

-Today, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced the results of the Risk Limiting Audit of Georgia’s presidential contest, which upheld and reaffirmed the original outcome produced by the machine tally of votes cast. Due to the tight margin of the race and the principles of risk-limiting audits, this audit was a full manual tally of all votes cast. The audit confirmed that the original machine count accurately portrayed the winner of the election. The results of the audit can be viewed HERE , HERE , and HERE .

“Georgia’s historic first statewide audit reaffirmed that the state’s new secure paper ballot voting system accurately counted and reported results,” said Secretary Raffensperger. “This is a credit to the hard work of our county and local elections officials who moved quickly to undertake and complete such a momentous task in a short period of time.”

“Georgia’s first statewide audit successfully confirmed the winner of the chosen contest and should give voters increased confidence in the results,” said Ben Adida, Executive Director of VotingWorks. “We were proud to work with Georgia on this historic audit. The difference between the reported results and the full manual tally is well within the expected error rate of hand-counting ballots, and the audit was a success.” 

By law, Georgia was required to conduct a Risk Limiting Audit of a statewide race following the November elections. Understanding the importance of clear and reliable results for such an important contest, Secretary Raffensperger selected the presidential race in Georgia for the audit. Meeting the confidence threshold required by law for the audit meant conducting a full manual tally of every ballot cast in Georgia.

The Risk Limiting Audit reaffirmed the outcome of the presidential race in Georgia as originally reported, with Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in the state. 

The audit process also led to counties catching making mistakes they made in their original count by not uploading all memory cards. Those counties uploaded the memory cards and re-certified their results, leading to increased accuracy in the results the state will certify.

The differential of the audit results from the original machine counted results is well within the expected margin of human error that occurs when hand-counting ballots. A 2012 study  by Rice University and Clemson University found that “hand counting of votes in postelection audit or recount procedures can result in error rates of up to 2 percent.” In Georgia’s recount, the highest error rate in any county recount was .73%. Most counties found no change in their finally tally. The majority of the remaining counties had changes of fewer than ten ballots.

Because the margin is still less than 0.5%, the President can request a recount after certification of the results. That recount will be conducted by rescanning all paper ballots.

Click here for the Risk Limiting Audit Report 

Georgia is scheduled to certify the results tomorrow.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Georgia has confirmed Biden’s win. Trump picked up 1700 votes because uncounted ballots were found!

Clearly that invalidates the entire election. 

[Fragile Bird]

Anderson Cooper just quoted the late Jimmy Breslin about Rudy Giuliani: a small man in search of a balcony.

[DanteGabriel]

13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Anderson Cooper just quoted the late Jimmy Breslin about Rudy Giuliani: a small man in search of a balcony.

I thought I once read that someone observed back in the 80s or 90s that the most dangerous place to be in the world was between Giuliani and a camera.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

I thought I once read that someone observed back in the 80s or 90s that the most dangerous place to be in the world was between Giuliani and a camera.

Didn't he divorce his wife on TV without letting her know?

[Week]

Apropos to the above ...

 

[maarsen]

So did Nancy Pelosi showing off freezer full of ice cream turn Wisconsin Democrat? 

[DanteGabriel]

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Didn't he divorce his wife on TV without letting her know?

Yep, called a press conference. No wonder his daughter hates him.

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

No wonder he and Trump get along so well. Remember Trump firing Comey on TV, and that’s how Comey found out?

Newt Gingrich also has married three times, and here's wikipedia's description of how the first one ended:

Quote

According to L. H. Carter, Gingrich's campaign treasurer, Gingrich said of Jackie: "She's not young enough or pretty enough to be the wife of the President. And besides, she has cancer." [242][243] Gingrich has denied saying it. [238] Following the divorce, Jackie had to raise money from friends in her congregation to help her and the children make ends meet; she later filed a petition in court stating that Gingrich had failed to properly provide for his family.[234] Gingrich submitted a financial statement to the judge, which showed that he had been "providing only $400 a month, plus $40 in allowances for his daughters. He claimed not to be able to afford any more. But in citing his own expenses, Gingrich listed $400 just for 'Food / dry cleaning, etc.'—for one person." [234] In 1981, a judge ordered Gingrich to provide considerably more; in 1993, Jackie stated in court that Gingrich had failed to obey the 1981 order "from the day it was issued." [242] Jackie, a deacon and volunteer in the First Baptist Church of Carrollton, Georgia, died in Atlanta at the age of 77. [244]

Seems to be a pattern here...

[kairparavel]

Getting to the bottom of this page of posts was a journey. I had to scroll up and down a few times to confirm what thread I'm in. Still not sure. 

 

Anyways, we've been buying Van Leuwen ice cream and it's worth every dollar (8 of 'em) per pint. 

Also how do you exit poll mail and drop box voters? Early voters?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Newt Gingrich also has married three times, and here's wikipedia's description of how the first one ended:

Seems to be a pattern here...

My favorite meme of his family.

[Zorral]

Headlines are looking more serious tonight -- on the WaPo:

Quote

Trump uses power of presidency to try to overturn the election and stay in office

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-uses-power-of-presidency-to-try-to-overturn-the-election-and-stay-in-office/2020/11/19/bc89caa6-2a9f-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html

Quote

 

....Biden’s team expressed confidence Thursday that Trump’s intensifying effort to keep power would fail.

“None of it is legally significant,” said Bob Bauer, a senior adviser to the Biden campaign, who runs the election protection legal efforts. “They are pivoting from this completely failed litigation strategy to a strategy of misleading people into believing that he now has a political option. It is a response to failure. It is the last card that he thinks he can pull from his deck here, but his hand remains a completely losing hand.”

But other Democrats voiced more concern about the threat of Trump’s moves.

“Other people looked at me like I was insane, but I have fully anticipated that Donald Trump would try every trick in the book,” said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). “The kind of stuff that’s being done now is undermining people’s confidence in the election process and the integrity of the election and it is fundamentally attacking the roots of our democracy, and it is unacceptable."....

 

 

[DMC]

21 minutes ago, kairparavel said:

Also how do you exit poll mail and drop box voters? Early voters?

Edison exit polled in-person early voters the same way they poll in-person election day voters.  They then called mail-in voters to account for that.  Here's a detailed description of their methodology:

Quote

To account for the large share of early in-person voters in critical states such as North Carolina, Florida and Texas, Edison Research has spent the past month conducting the same type of in-person interviewing that it does on Election Day at a random selection of early voting locations around eight states. The consortium first used this procedure to capture the opinions and vote choices of early voters in 2018 in Nevada and Tennessee. Those voters are answering the same questions that voters will be asked on Election Day.

To account for the large number of by-mail voters, as well as early voters in states where in-person early voter interviewing is not possible, the exit polls will also include the results of telephone polls targeted at these voters. Edison Research has conducted such polling for use in exit polls in states with significant shares of absentee and early voters since 2004.

This year, in every state where exit poll results are available on election night, the results of a telephone poll of early and by-mail voters will be incorporated into the results. These voters are also being asked the same questions that will be asked on Election Day.

When all of these pieces are combined, the exit poll results presented on election night will reflect a complete picture of voters all across the country.

This cycle, AP-NORC's "exit poll" was significantly different.  Basically, just one huge ass poll:

Quote

In the 2020 general election, VoteCast completed more than 130,000 interviews with registered voters between October 26 and November 3, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. AP VoteCast delivered data about the presidential election in all 50 states, as well as all Senate and governors’ races in 2020.

Not only did the 2020 surveys complete a massive number of interviews in a short turnaround, their results were comprehensive and accurate when compared with key benchmarks. Because of their confidence in the data, both The Associated Press and Fox News used the data to call race outcomes and to explain the mood of the electorate in their election-night coverage.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

All frozen dairy products matter?

Technically, what defines ice cream is the amount and type (milk) of fat, not what is used to sweeten it. The only ice cream that isn't real ice cream are the low fat and the plant fat kinds. Yes I am saying it, there is no such thing as vegan ice cream. You can call it anything else, but it isn't ice cream.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Week said:

Apropos to the above ...

 

Why would you post that? I feel actually queasy and ill now, and it's almost dinner time. I recommend people don't watch. It is video of Guiliani doing something that may stimulate the gag reflex. It isn't sexual or anything involving touching another person, but it is still one of the grossest things you may ever see at a press conference.

[Martell Spy]

He lost the election due to bone spurs,  maybe?

 

2020 Has Been Miserable. Is Extreme Masculinity to Blame?
Whether it’s the refusal to wear a mask during a pandemic or the win-at-all-costs approach to elections, 2020 has been a banner year for a particularly toxic masculinity, says Peter Glick.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/19/masculinity-coronavirus-masks-pandemic-2020-trump-biden-438413

Quote

 

Trump’s masculinity is much more fragile than Reagan’s easy, comfortable performance. There’s still all this stuff about “strength” and “dominance,” but I think we’ve combined it now with political polarization and winning and crushing the competition.

That said, you would think—you know, it’s not masculine to whine ...

Well, whining isn’t seen as masculine, but as you noted, there is this extreme masculine need to win at all costs. And so, with the stakes being so high—it being not just the election, but Trump’s perception as a winner on the line—isn’t his type of masculinity leading to the whining?

Yes, because you can’t admit defeat, as we see right now. Therefore, what’s the alternative explanation? That the election was “rigged.”

In social psychology, there’s this phenomenon called self-handicapping, where if you are worried that you’re going to lose—and that would threaten your masculine identity—you set up an obstacle or excuse in advance. It’s like we’re going to run a race, and you say, “Oh, I think I pulled a muscle.” Or you’re going to take an exam the next day, and you publicly get super drunk: “Oh, I bombed it. I was totally drunk.” You set up excuses in advance.

Certainly, Trump set up this “rigged” notion as an excuse. That’s that very reactive, ego-driven, “win at all costs” version of masculinity. And I think our culture feeds that.

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

40 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Technically, what defines ice cream is the amount and type (milk) of fat, not what is used to sweeten it. The only ice cream that isn't real ice cream are the low fat and the plant fat kinds. Yes I am saying it, there is no such thing as vegan ice cream. You can call it anything else, but it isn't ice cream.

Sure sure sure. How dare they call it almond milk! Or coconut milk! Or soy milk! Nuke ‘em!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Why would you post that? I feel actually queasy and ill now, and it's almost dinner time. I recommend people don't watch. It is video of Guiliani doing something that may stimulate the gag reflex. It isn't sexual or anything involving touching another person, but it is still one of the grossest things you may ever see at a press conference.

Worse than the Borat scene? Funny how we all just moved on from that....