Covid-19 #25: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

I 'feel' a seasonal connection too, but still -- here, the huge surge in wake of the August, Sturgis, South Dakota motorcycle rally, following the July Mt. Rushmore rally.  

Restrictions, seasonality and variants seem to be the major drivers of numbers (+ compliance).  So in Feb/Mar last year, no restrictions, big COVID numbers.  Restrictions kick in, numbers fall. 

Restrictions (and compliance) are relaxed in summer.  Numbers rise.  New restrictions.  Numbers fall.

Compliance and restrictions fall again in Nov/Dec given the holiday season.  But because of seasonality, numbers explode (far worse than summer).  And variants makes things worse too.

That would suggest we have time to sort things out before next winter.  That assumes people still remain reasonably vigilant.   Plus, vaccines aren't negated by variants.  But the pressure may be on for the southern hemisphere.

[Raja]

So RECOVERY posted a fairly big paper on their trial that I'm surprised hasn't been posted here yet - It confirms the benefit of TOCILIZUMAB ( Toci) combined with dexamethasone. Based on the benefits seen within the sub-groups of the study, Toci should basically be given to every covid patient that is requiring oxygen and has an inflammatory response underway ( defined as a C-reactive protein (CRP) of more than 75) .

It's not just mortality that is affected, but even reduces the need for mechanical ventilation.

That is *a lot* of covid 19 patients. We're going to need a lot of this drug, but it's an expensive monoclonal Abx, so unlike dexamethasone ( which is cheap and widely available), it's not something that is available to all hospitals.

Here's the pre-print

Here's more of a summary of the above, it's more physician focused though, if you don't feel like reading the paper!

[Fragile Bird]

Lol, the attacks on Canada keep on showing up on US media. Now CNBC has been repeating a story several times so far today about how the economy of Florida is out $6B because fewer than 1% of the usual 3.5M Canadian visitors have arrived in Florida this year. Travelers are being "shamed" and now the people currently there will be forced to stay in quarantine hotels upon their return, at their own expense, for up to three days while they wait for Covid test results. I have not watched other stations, but I think the story is making the rounds. A quick search shows lots of Florida coverage plus NPR, the WSJ, Bloomberg News and other outlets. Some stories talk about how Canada botched our vaccine rollout. Nice.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I have totally not seen anything like this, and I read the New York Times, Financial Times, Washington Post, every day, as well as glance through the CNN and AJC (local news) websites.

if I were at the office, I’d have a constant Bloomberg News barrage, but I’m at home, so different story.

And if we are talking about botched vaccine rollout, every news org I read consistently states that the US is quite fUBard.

I just find it hilarious, we’re vaccine nationalists and we are ruining the economy of Florida by shaming people who want to vacation in the sun. And now we’re going to put people in prison! Bloody commie socialists!

Actually, only people who fly back to Canada have to stay in a quarantine hotel, because there’s hotel infrastructure around airports. There are so many land border crossings without hotels around them people who drive home from Florida can quarantine at home, but they have to get a Covid test within 72 hours of returning and you must file a certificate attesting to that with authorities, and quarantine for 14 days.

How, you ask, did people drive to Florida if the land border is closed? Because these are rich people who had their car shipped across the border to an airport  (no border closure for commerce) and took a helicopter from Canada to the US airport! Simple!

[Fragile Bird]

B1.525, a variant from Nigeria, has now been detected in Canada, in British Columbia. The person, no surprise, just returned from a trip to Nigeria.

[Zorral]

North Dakota North Dakota North Dakota always the victim yet always making out like a bandit.  

My sister and / or is it really her husband insisted for the longest time covid-19 was no deal at all and were very angry about the confinements and so on.  But they are the first ones howling to get vaccinated and furious with the government for not getting them yesterday.  Though they weren't furious Before, when shoggoth was lying about purchasing doses.

[The Anti-Targ]

A new leakage confirmed here today. A person working at an airline catering company at Auckland airport is patient zero, so far. The person is regularly tested as a border worker, but it does seem rather unlikely that someone in the catering side of airport ops would be directly exposed to an infected person arriving from overseas. So, tracing it back to an incoming infected person might be tricky. My wife and son are due to fly out of Auckland tomorrow. Hopefully patient zero only works at the international terminal so the domestic terminal is not directly threatened.

[Impmk2]

The UK variant (B.1.1.7) in particular does seem to be giving our quarantine system some grief here, especially in Victoria, which has recorded 2 of the 5 breaches we've had recently. The risk profile of the hotel quarantine system does seem to have changed. I'm hopeful the vaccine rollout will mitigate that risk somewhat, even if it doesn't completely kill transmission / infection it's likely to reduce viral load and the chance of passing it on.

I imagine the situation in NZ is pretty similar. Though your system seems to be more watertight? Or is it just a matter of less travellers coming in overall?

[Fragile Bird]

That post I did about the huge upsurge in cases in Newfoundland? That’s been determined to be B.1.1.7.  440 cases between the start of the pandemic and Sunday, 170 cases this week.

[The Anti-Targ]

Auckland moved to level 3 (out of 4) lockdown tonight for three days. The rest of us in level 2. Level 3 is stay at home, no groups more than 10 and only for weddings and funerals, schools closed except for people's kids who have to be at work and can't work from home. Fortunately the announcement said people who live outside of Auckland but are there right now can go home. So far it looks good for my wife and son being able to fly tomorrow.

I know this is nothing in the grand scheme of the most of the world, but this is going to cause people some grief, though worse yet it's going to bring the nutters back out who will be posting crap on social media that this time the govt really will declare martial law, and it's just a ploy to forve people to be vaccinated against their will, and be implanted with the Gates/Soros mind control microchip. That's the other great hing about not having COVID for long stretches, the crazies stay quiet. Though they were already coming out of the swamp with the first batches of vaccine due to arrive this week. OMG! the timing of this with the vaccine arrival is just so good (bad for most of us) to feed the conspiracy monster. Sigh.

[Heartofice]

What is the point of a 3 day lockdown?

[Impmk2]

If it's anything like the short lockdowns here it's to allow contact tracing to investigate, catch up and get potentially infected people into isolation without risking further spread.

[The Anti-Targ]

Correction, the conspiracy nuts aren't going to come out of the swamp. They came out of the swamp about 5 minutes after the cases were announced, even before the lockdown was announced.

Re the three day lockdown, to add to Impmk, when you think you have good contact tracing, and you're confident that it is a single origin close to the initial case with limited pre-detection spread you only need 3 days to figure out if your assumptions and level of control are right or wrong, and then be able to lift the lockdown if you are right or extend it if you are wrong. If you just let things ride while you find out if your assumptions are correct then you have a lot of risk of significant spread if your assumptions were wrong. Then you have a bigger problem to deal with than you could have if you'd acted with caution from the start.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Though they were already coming out of the swamp with the first batches of vaccine due to arrive this week. OMG! the timing of this with the vaccine arrival is just so good (bad for most of us) to feed the conspiracy monster. Sigh.

Where is the vaccine coming from? What company?

[The Anti-Targ]

5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Where is the vaccine coming from? What company?

I think the first batch is coming from Pfizer. They ordered the good stuff for the border and healthcare staff. Pretty sure gen pop will be getting AZ after June, though I read an article a week or so ago that had the govt making purchase contracts for 2 or 3 other vaccines as well. I think maybe we have vaccine to cover 2x our population on order, but delivery will be gradual, so there is no stockpiling going on.

[rotting sea cow]

57 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Correction, the conspiracy nuts aren't going to come out of the swamp. They came out of the swamp about 5 minutes after the cases were announced, even before the lockdown was announced.

This is crazy, because if there is a country which can go on without vaccines this is NZ. Contrary to most of the world, the cost benefit of a three frigging days lockdown is very clear. You stay at home few days and then you can continue your life as usual with the big bonus of saving a lot of lives. Over most of the world is not that clear. We are going from lockdowns to lockdowns, some of them no working and we get thousands of deaths regardless. We do not see the time when we can stop using masks or meeting regularly with coworkers or going to a bar or the children going to schools without a lot BS besides.

These guys do not know what they have

 

 

[Spockydog]

My brother and I both got the Oxford/Astra Zenica vaccine last Thursday. I'm 51 and he's a year older. 

We're both still at a loss as to why we were invited, but not going to knock it. 

[Ormond]

The Omaha World-Herald had an interesting optimistic article today about vaccine effectivenss (at least in the short term) based on the fact that Covid-19 infections in nursing homes in our state, both among residents and workers, have dropped a very large amount during January. As these people were part of the first wave of vaccinations, it's seen as a sign that the vaccines are really working. 

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-regional/plummeting-covid-cases-in-nursing-homes-bode-well-for-vaccines-ending-pandemic/article_efc64226-657f-11eb-8993-4bf4f8106be0.html#tracking-source=home-top-story

[Mlle. Zabzie]

45 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Hey, just thank your lucky stars and send good thoughts to those of us waiting

I swear, Georgia is never gonna get to 1b, so I’m just taking life two weeks at a time.

Also distracting myself by getting new carpet from Home Depot and having the decorator come over to do paint colors, and obvs then the painters. And some black-out curtains custom made for my room, and also some new light fixtures put up. Because if I’m stuck here, it might as well be a f——ing palace.

Absolutely.  And light fixtures are a wonderful and expensive rabbit hole.  Go to the Currey and Company website.  Or Urban Electric. Or look at Kelly Wearstler.  I mean, don’t look at the prices or anything, but it is fun to look.....

[Buckwheat]

The infections have dropped significantly in my country over the past few weeks. I hope this is a sign that the vaccines are working - most of the elderly home residents and healthcare workers have been vaccinated by now. Half of primary schools and the last year of high schools are opening after four months (the other half has a week of holiday and starts the next week). Also today is the first day when it is allowed to move between municipalities/communes, I almost feel like this is a reason to celebrate.

I so hope the trend of declining  numbers lasts and that the vaccinations continue ...