Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
L'oiseau français

Covid-19 #30: Vaccines and All That JJAZ

Recommended Posts

Considering how slow the rollout is across the world, odds are that many people will actually get next-gen vaccine (designed to fight the variants) for their 1st or 2nd shots. Those who got vaccinated early will have to get a booster shot, on the other hand.

I'm also going to agree and fuse both above opinions: many vaccinated people will still catch it, if not enough people get the jabs, and those will have to be helped and deserve sympathy. On the other hand, if there are too many anti-vaxx idiots and the healthcare system begins to crack under the weight once again, then we really need to check who got the vaccine and who deserves to get lost, until hospitals aren't full. I expect 3/4 of those who refuse to get the vaccine to actually catch covid in the next 10-12 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

It’s a waste of oxygen trying to explain health policy to either group.  It’s the Trump/Ted Nugent moving goalposts of “It’s not real” > “it’s not that serious, see: *insert rando Facebook post” > “I didn’t die from it” (unless they in fact died and can’t spout opinions any more)

I think this is by and large true, and it's why I support a vaccine passport type requirement. I think I managed to convince one person to not vote in favour of Brexit, and that was my Grandma. A vaccine passport might at least convince enough extra people to get the vaccine that it makes a real difference. 

38 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

The big question right now is whether we can vaccinate enough people to get to or near herd immunity so that the virus begins to die out.  That's where everyone wants to get to.  In the US, it's going to take a combination of vaccinated people and people immune from getting infected to get to herd immunity.  Something like 50% of Republicans, so about 25% of the country, still refuse to get vaccinated.  No idea how problematic this is for other countries.  The problem is that the longer the virus circulates, the higher the likelihood that another problematic variant emerges that will require a new vaccine.

I think 'Republicans' are a significantly smaller % of the population than 50%. Even forgetting about independents (and children), party affiliation has changed a lot in the last few years and dems have a non-insignificant advantage. The difference might only end up being 5%, but that's fairly consequential. I'd be more interested/worried to see how this plays out on a state-by-state basis, since presumably somewhere like South Dakota has a much higher % of anti-vaxers than New Jersey, for example. 

Here in the UK we've given 63% of the adult population their first jab and it hasn't really been targeted towards under-45s yet. I don't know many anti-vaxers in real life, but at this point pretty much everyone will know a fair few people who've had the vaccine. There will always be some conspiratorial groups, but I think the normalisation you achieve at that level is enough to make it more accessible to those who are merely vaccine-hesitant.

That said, the polls I've seen tend to show that UK vaccine hesitancy is nothing like what it is in some parts of Europe, like France. I wonder if a countries inability to get a clear majority of their population vaccinated will inhibit further uptake, or maybe the example of countries with high vaccine uptake and low cases will be enough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty sure even AZ prevents pretty much all serious conditions and deaths from the South Africa variant.

Quote

Here in the UK we've given 63% of the adult population their first jab and it hasn't really been targeted towards under-45s yet. I don't know many anti-vaxers in real life, but at this point pretty much everyone will know a fair few people who've had the vaccine. There will always be some conspiratorial groups, but I think the normalisation you achieve at that level is enough to make it more accessible to those who are merely vaccine-hesitant.

Luckily you don’t have the vaccinate everyone to get to that herd immunity threshold, so even if there are few people who refuse to take it, it won’t matter. Plus those people also tend to be the sort who don’t believe in the virus and don’t wear masks so will probably develop immunity naturally by catching it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Well, Valneva has already signed a contract with the UK AND they are producing in the UK (though its a French company). How high are the odd that we would see any vaccine under these circumstances? I bet there is as well some mysterious : first 100 mio doses to the UK clause, somewhere (though none will see this contract). Really there is no reason to do business with them.

They could have set up a plant producing it in France also.  But you are right.  There could be many reasons why the EU has decided not to sign up for Valneva.  Contracts are definitely going to be tighter.  But I still hope the EU find a few different technologies to invest in!  You can't be too safe.

I found the below interesting on the clots story.  First time I saw somebody talk about fixing the presumed problem.

Quote

Greinacher said it may be possible to reduce the risk of clots by removing proteins that remain in the shots after the manufacturing process and reducing levels of an additive called EDTA, but he stressed that manufacturers would need to look at what changes could be made without affecting safety and efficacy. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/20/possible-link-between-johnson-johnson-vaccine-and-rare-blood-clots-says-regulator

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

Luckily you don’t have the vaccinate everyone to get to that herd immunity threshold, so even if there are few people who refuse to take it, it won’t matter.

Herd immunity will require vaccinating kids, which seems like it will happen this summer.  Pfizer and Moderna are well on the way but it does add a bit more time to reach that stage.  I imagine AZ wouldn't look at that option though.  More research will be required first from them.

3 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Unless the vaccine manufacturers switch to a cocktail version early, we probably won't see booster for another year or two.

Moderna is looking at a cocktail.  So is Novavax.  I imagine Pfizer must be also.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Padraig said:

 

Herd immunity will require vaccinating kids, which seems like it will happen this summer.  Pfizer and Moderna are well on the way but it does add a bit more time to reach that stage.  I imagine AZ wouldn't look at that option though.  More research will be required first from them.

 

Depends what you think the threshold for herd immunity is. Some estimates show that England has almost 55% with Covid antibodies , if the threshold was 60%, which it is some claim, then we wouldn't need to vaccinate children.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Depends what you think the threshold for herd immunity is. Some estimates show that England has almost 55% with Covid antibodies , if the threshold was 60%, which it is some claim, then we wouldn't need to vaccinate children.

In addition to this, covid positive rates among secondary schools have levelled out after they opened in the last two months. So children are still not spreading the virus that much in the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Leap said:

In addition to this, covid positive rates among secondary schools have levelled out after they opened in the last two months. So children are still not spreading the virus that much in the UK.

Herd immunity is a rather nebulous target.   You can't compare the last couple of months with an environment with potential "herd immunity" because in that environment there are little to no restrictions (presumably).  People are behaving like they did pre-COVID and COVID would still not be spreading.

I've not seen a figure as low as 60% but perhaps I have missed something.  Strikes me as very optimistic though.

But it might depend on what a person means by "herd immunity".  COVID could still be spreading but not in a potentially uncontrolled way?  Sure, that might be 60%.  Or if all the vulnerable people are vaccinated, then fatalities are likely to be extremely low?  Maybe that is at 60% also.  I don't know.

I imagine the UK wouldn't have much trouble hitting herd immunity either way (assuming it doesn't turn out to be 95% or something equally ridiculous).  Regulators will sign off on the over 11s being vaccinated in the next couple of months.

France might be more resistant but having a few good country examples of the benefit of vaccination should help a lot.  The rep of Pfizer/Biontech should help too.  And yes, simply knowing people have been vaccinated...

Just a bit of info on the vaccine cocktail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

B1617

That’s the new number to remember, the Indian variant.

There are calls to shut down air flights between Canada and India now, immediately. One case has been found in Quebec and 35 in BC. It’s the double mutation and hits harder and faster.

 

Edited by Fragile Bird

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Herd immunity is a rather nebulous target.   You can't compare the last couple of months with an environment with potential "herd immunity" because in that environment there are little to no restrictions (presumably).  People are behaving like they did pre-COVID and COVID would still not be spreading.

I've not seen a figure as low as 60% but perhaps I have missed something.  Strikes me as very optimistic though.

But it might depend on what a person means by "herd immunity".  COVID could still be spreading but not in a potentially uncontrolled way?  Sure, that might be 60%.  Or if all the vulnerable people are vaccinated, then fatalities are likely to be extremely low?  Maybe that is at 60% also.  I don't know.

I imagine the UK wouldn't have much trouble hitting herd immunity either way (assuming it doesn't turn out to be 95% or something equally ridiculous).  Regulators will sign off on the over 11s being vaccinated in the next couple of months.

France might be more resistant but having a few good country examples of the benefit of vaccination should help a lot.  The rep of Pfizer/Biontech should help too.  And yes, simply knowing people have been vaccinated...

Just a bit of info on the vaccine cocktail.

I think early days Fauci was citing 60-70% as a herd immunity threshold, though think that has moved since, but we don’t know if it’s moving because they just want to appear cautious or not, though he’s said he think he’s probably 70-90 now.

Point is, he doesn’t know. We’ll have to see what happens here in the Uk , cases haven’t really gone up since opening up or opening schools, but we’ll be able to see in the next few weeks where we are

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Mudguard said:

The big question right now is whether we can vaccinate enough people to get to or near herd immunity so that the virus begins to die out.  That's where everyone wants to get to.  In the US, it's going to take a combination of vaccinated people and people immune from getting infected to get to herd immunity.  Something like 50% of Republicans, so about 25% of the country, still refuse to get vaccinated.  No idea how problematic this is for other countries.  The problem is that the longer the virus circulates, the higher the likelihood that another problematic variant emerges that will require a new vaccine.

Republicans are less numerous than that, but its not just registered Republicans who are being idiotic assholes. Last I saw, it was about 35% of adults who don't want the vaccine, and they'll presumably try to stop their kids from getting it too.

Three things that would help a lot: 1) Have the FDA give full approval to the vaccine so that members of the military can be ordered to take it (under current law, military members can refuse medications that only have emergency authorization approval; and it seems to be about 40% of them have refused the vaccines so far), 2) Have states mandates that kids be vaccinated, once it's approved for them, for them to attend school, 3) Encourage corporations to refuse to conduct in-person business with customers who aren't vaccinated, starting sometime this summer once everyone who wants the vaccine has had time to get it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They opened our volunteering for AZ website yesterday. Of course it crashed immediately but they got 18 000 volunteers between last night and this morning. We have 15 000 doses available currently and no info about any further deliveries in May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The idea that you can just choose to not be with people who are risky is a really bad take. Even taking out the idea that you're just totes cool with them suffering and dying, the real problem is that the vaccine does not stop spread entirely nor does it work perfectly. This is why we keep getting outbreaks of things like measles.

And it also means any one who cannot get the vaccine - because they are ineligible or because it will not work for them - will be forced to risk their life or forced to stay at home. 

This libertarian ideal of allowing the assholes to dictate who has the right to exist in society is pretty shitty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Maybe the vaccinations should have started with GenX if we were going to make it cool like this

 

 

 

Edited by SpaceChampion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've also been playing around with the ECDC vaccine tracker https://vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/vaccine-tracker.html#distribution-tab

Not sure if it's been linked here before but it lets you look at all interesting stats such as different doses per supplier, uptake by age group etc. Ireland vaccinated 99,9% of its over 80 population, impressive!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

In other news, Ted Nugent has announced he has Covid-19. He has been a Covid denier.

He doesnt have COVID, he just has cat-scratch fever.

(yes, I know its bacterial rather than viral, but his oeuvre is remarkably light on animal-based diseases transmittable to humans)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Determining to keep people who refuse to vaccinate out of one's personal space, and as much as possible out of all one's activities, and demanding some kind of 'vaccine passport-proof of vaccination, as when selling theater tickets, is more likely to push people into finally getting themselves vaccinated too. Just like making it so difficult to smoke indoors anywhere. including refusing lighting up in one's own home, in the office, in bars, made smoking such a pita that more people quit who were determined not to.  Except the true die-hards, who often then due die of lung cancer.

Of course there are all those stupid crazy types whose thinking is incomprehensible to any normal, sensible person, who will still refuse vaccination, but will spend all kinds of money for a fake vaccination passport.

These people who behave like this are truly dangerous to all the rest o us -- just as their almost invariably accompanying beliefs about the Election Big Lie, their racism and general bigotry and meanesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/22/soon-we-need-stop-catering-vaccine-holdouts/

Quote

 

....In other words, no one can blame responsible health-care officials for residual, militant vaccine hesitancy. The number of those who do not want the vaccine (roughly 20 percent) has been immovable since January, suggesting these people — which includes as much as 40 percent of Republicans — are impervious to reason and facts.

In fact, a recent focus group of vaccine-hesitant voters found that some of these people would lie about being vaccinated. The Post reports: “Most participants said they would want a fake vaccination card that would allow them to claim they had received shots, after [GOP pollster Frank] Luntz granted them anonymity to speak honestly.” Given the existence of such self-destructive, selfish and potentially deceitful people, secure vaccine passports are warranted.....

 

Which is why, along with the Big Lie Believers whose first Big Lie they joyeously embraced was that yellow jerkwaddie was what this country needed, not equality and fairness, I no longer believe in the least in 'education', much less discussion with these people. They are unreachable, their choice.  I'm not wasting my precious time.

In this case of the virus I say, "Let them get sick, let them die," except they infect innocent others, particularly the younger ones growing up around and with them, to whom they also deny the vaccination.

The uneducated who refuse education by their choice, includes those who keep banging on about 'herd immunity' which does not come close to existing anywhere, and never will, until all around the globe the vast majority of people are vaccinated.

This is a global world -- and those who bang on about herd immunity are the first who think closing down to contain the infections is bad for 'the economy' and cannot and should not be done. And besides, kids hardly ever get sick, and not very badly, But no matter how much and often the evidence is provided them, including the ever increasing number of kids who do get sick and even after recovery, the severe conditions developed that seem not to go away,  these still blather 'herd immunity.'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

I wish they had daily figures.  Or at least, I couldn't find it there.  I'd like to see how trends are developing.  ourworldindata tries to do daily trends but it is a little hit and miss.

And yes, I imagine Ireland will do rather well with uptake, although it wouldn't stay at 99.9%! :)

2 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

They opened our volunteering for AZ website yesterday. Of course it crashed immediately but they got 18 000 volunteers between last night and this morning. We have 15 000 doses available currently and no info about any further deliveries in May.

That is very impressive.  I wish we would try something a bit more radical.  We were doing reasonably well until April but the AZ/J&J issues have left us flailing.  So while we are seeing an increase in vaccination, its lower than other countries.  What has Luxembourg done with J&J?  We wouldn't decide until next week.

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Point is, he doesn’t know. We’ll have to see what happens here in the Uk , cases haven’t really gone up since opening up or opening schools, but we’ll be able to see in the next few weeks where we are

Yes.  The idea of opening up those big indoor activities without masks seem a bit away yet, but I could be surprised I suppose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, somehow I managed to take a day that I should be celebrating and still turn into a day full of regret solely because I'm an absolute idiot! Gaaaargh!

So I got my first vaccine shot today. Which in itself would be great. But I messed up due to my usual inability to go from point A to point B. On the map my route to the vaccination center looked simple enough. Take the bus until I reach a stop near a river, on the other side is the vaccination center. I then only need to cross a bridge and then take the shuttle bus waiting there.

When I arrived I soon realized a slight problem. In between bus stop and bridge is a huge ass motorway with six lanes. No obvious way to cross it except a little bicycle trail below the motorway bridge. To get there I had to climb down a couple of stairs. No biggie I thought. So I went down the stairs, deep in thought about where to go next but pretty sure I still kept my gaze towards the steps I had to take. Except there suddenly was no step. And before I realized what was happening I was sliding the stairs down on my ass. Looking back I saw that there were two whole stairs missing for some mindbuggling reason, the gaps just being twice as big. Of course I wasn't entirely using my ass to traverse the countryside, I just came from school, so I had my backpack on. WIth my laptop in it! So I frantically pulled it out and... breathed a sigh of relief to see that was seemingly intact. So I went to have my shot, brused and with two missing fingernails, but otherwise fine.

... except that when was in the waiting room after my shot I checked on my laptop again and saw that it did take some damage. In one corner a big chunk of the casing had broken off, though luckily nowhere close to any ports or anything, but the screen casing at the same corner was broken up as well, which is pretty damn dangerous to the screen. The laptop itself seems to work fine as of yet and after I glued the casing the damage is surprisingly unintrusive, but I feel like I can't take it to school anymore out of fear to make it worse.

Great. And here I thought the only thing I would worry about today would be that irking feeling like I cut in line in front of lots of older people who are still not vaccinated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Padraig said:

What has Luxembourg done with J&J?  We wouldn't decide until next week.

They paused until the EMA review but administered the rest of the doses now. We only got 2500 though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...