Israel: Still There

[Datepalm]

 Except Petach Tikva?

Carry on.

[Luzifer's right hand]

How likely is it the the opposition will succeed with its bid to form a goverment? It seems inherently unstable from an outside view...

[Fez]

Who knows? But if Yamina can keep its MKs in line, my guess is it may be more stable than people are assuming. The left and center are in government for the first time in ages, so they've got little incentive to bring it down and risk an election so soon. And the right-wing and Raam all took huge risks joining this kind of coalition; I suspect they will be badly punished by their voters if they don't have anything to show for it. And they know it.

Something big and external, like another war, I think could easily bring things down. But, left to their own devices, I could see them sticking to COVID-economic recovery and managing to push on for a little while.

[Toth]

One of the students who missed the first lesson last week sent me an E-Mail yesterday that he finds it inappropriate to talk about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in school and he refuses to take part in the lessons because he has opinions on it that he fears would get him into trouble.

That was... actually in the way he put it a surprisingly self-aware assessment. Despite me struggling with my vaccination reaction I felt compelled to write a rather long message where I expressed my regret that my lesson makes him feel like he's being put in a tough spot, but still have to defend my lesson and how we are not trying to judge any of the actors, point with fingers or take sides, only trying to understand why this conflict exists in the first place and what conflicting motivations caused it to continue for 73 years. And that this topic lies at the heart of why we engage with history and politics in school to begin with, to gain the tools to be able to perceive the world around us through facts we can base our opinions on, and not to get swayed by whatever opinions buzz around us during everyday life.

We'll see what happens now. He didn't do the homeschooling task yesterday, but neither did half the class anyway. -.-

[A wilding]

@Toth Just in passing, and since you have expressed doubts in the past, you are obviously a very good teacher.

[Zorral]

Friend in Jaffa emailed yesterday saying she's not voted for / voting for the coalition government either because she knows all them and they are all racist sobs, members of the "Fascist-Racist International", which, she says, have no doubts, exists, led particularly by the US and Israel in some totally cray-cray scratch my back etc. way, as the US is also so antisemitic (she doesn't mean here anti-Israel by any means). 

This, even though she wants Netanyahu out as much as anybody can.  She's despairing, and thinks she would leave Israel, as she's being persecuted in many ways because she works with Palestinians.  But she has no idea where to go, due to that Fascist-Racist International she sees taking over globally, in one form and another.

[Werthead]

6 hours ago, A wilding said:

@Toth Just in passing, and since you have expressed doubts in the past, you are obviously a very good teacher.

Cosigned.

[Bael's Bastard]

16 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

How likely is it the the opposition will succeed with its bid to form a goverment? It seems inherently unstable from an outside view...

It is unstable, but the parties also have pretty good reasons to try to make it work.

Naftali Bennett is going to become PM despite his party Yamina having less seats than coalition partners Yesh Atid/Yair Lapid (17) and Blue and White/Benny Gantz (8), and being tied for seats with Labor/Merav Michaeli (7) and Yisrael Beiteinu/Avigdor Lieberman (7).

Bennett has never led a party that received more than 12/120 seats and his party has hovered around 6 or 7 for years. He's never come close to being the first or second largest party, or being tasked with forming a coalition of his own.

This is likely the only chance he will ever have to be PM, essentially being handed the opportunity by a more successful party, and the quicker this government fails the less likely it is he will ever get another chance.

The other right wing parties also have an interest in the coalition working because they are desperate to disprove Bibi's claims to be the only one that can protect Israel. Bibi has spent years employing fear to get right and center-right voters of other parties to flock to him. Bennett, Lieberman, and Sa'ar are all former Likudniks trying to step out of his shadow.

They have burnt bridges by signing this agreement. Not to say the right wing parties in and out of the coalition will never work with one another, I fully expect them to. But the small right wing parties in this coalition would be incapable of forming a coalition of their own. They are stuck either being stooges of Bibi or trying to carve out a different path.

There's also nothing to go back to. Most of these parties are fed up not only with Bibi but with the Haredi parties that Bibi's coalitions usually depend on. So long as Likud is unwilling to part with Bibi and the Haredi parties are not willing to negotiate on army service and studying exemptions, 

Ra'am has good reason to remain in the coalition because just like that they have jumped over Joint List in terms of importance and credibility among Arab parties. Despite being an Islamist party, they have agreed to join a coalition with religious settlers and secular Jews to try to be in a better position to help Arab communities.

For Lapid, it is win/win either way. He has done something momentous and unprecedented in cobbling together this coalition and bringing an Arab party into the cabinet, and people will remember that. If this lasts long enough to accomplish anything of note, especially in terms of banning Bibi, he ushered it in. And if it fails, he put the work in to make it happen and once again showed he was willing to let someone else go first in a rotation (like with Gantz) to come to an agreement to end Bibi's rule.

[TheLastWolf]

Still there!? Surprised 

[Tears of Lys]

Glad to hear you're still there, Datepalm, and hopefully doing well.    

[Fez]

The last possibly shaky Yamina MK confirmed today that he'll vote in favor of the coalition, which ensures that there's a bare majority for it. News also came that that the 3 key coalition party leaders met today to settle a few last disagreements and that all were resolved.

The vote is set for Sunday, and also on Sunday the Knesset will vote to replace the current Speaker (a Netanyahu-ally) with a coalition MK. It's because of delays by the current Speaker that the votes are still almost a week away.

[Toth]

You know, if I was that great of a teacher, anything we do in these lessons would actually stick...

Today I prepared to dive into a comparison of three suggested solutions (two-state, one-state, confederation) and fill out a table with different questions to each solution in groups. Never got to even start that. Instead the whole lesson was sacrificed to discuss last week's relationship model for the actors because they of course couldn't remember anything about what the conflict is about anymore (again).

Also turns out one girl (who missed the first two lessons and is generally quite a bit problematic in terms of attendance and motivation) suddenly remembered that she IS (half?) Palestinian. And then spent most of the lesson trying to wriggle an answer out of me 'on which side I am', with me having to reiterate again and again that the point of the exercise is to not treat this conflict like a football game.

Though I must say a couple of her additions were quite interesting. For one she had a rather hostile attitude towards all Arabic states of the region, claiming that they abandoned the Palestinians and are now friends with Israel. Luckily it fit neatly into what we were already doing to sort that out and show that it's a bit more complicated like that. Also, kinda irritatingly, she seemed quite swayed by Erdogan, getting the impression that he's the only one who called Israel out during the recent conflict, though that was the only time some other students raised from their slumber and objected that it was just talk.

Btw, the student I mentioned last week who didn't want to take part in the lesson did in the end join it today, though for the most part didn't say anything except answering one question at the beginning when we went through the key phrases of the topic again (notably, explaining what settlements are... as 'something Israel does'). I guess I can work with that.

[HoodedCrow]

Toth, it is an explosive topic that only the valiant attempt. It’s very complicated, and partisan and religious and ethnic. Do repeat that you are a teacher not a cheerleader for sides. 

[Werthead]

As an example of that, in the UK there's a textbook which attempts to cover the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a neutral POV but in understandable terms for school ages. The latest edition was pulled because of Israeli claims they were biased in favour of the Palestinians. It's just been pulled for a second time because of Palestinian claims it is now biased in favour of the Israelis.

[Toth]

Tch, sounds to me like the initial unaltered books were the ones with the least bias. I suppose that's just another reason why I felt like I had to make my materials myself, though admittedly my sources (two textbooks from Klett and Cornelsen, the online source collection of the Federal Institute for Political Science as well as a couple of articles from Deutsche Welle and the like) felt quite balanced to me, even if they always felt a tad incomplete. In the end I'm pretty sure if an official from the Likud and the Hamas were present to my lessons they would each call for my head irrespectively of what I do, so I just shrug and try to focus on the motivations of the actors and their views and expectations of each other behind the events, without wasting time on assigning blame or engage in excuses.

I should also note that in the Berlin Political Science curriculum the Israel-Palestine conflict is a voluntary topic for the last High School year and I've talked to colleagues teaching these classes that they do them as well.

[Fez]

Pretty comprehensive write-up of the new coalition agreements is here: https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-inks-formal-coalition-deals-with-raam-yisrael-beytenu/

As expected, it's mostly a focus on various domestic policies and otherwise a commitment to the status quo. Though there are a few provisions relevant to any future peace prospects:

Quote

The incoming government will also keep all civil control and enforcement in Area C of the West Bank under the Defense Ministry, according to the coalition agreements. The coalition principles state that Gantz will be allocated certain resources to help better enforce building regulations in Area C, the roughly 60 percent of the West Bank that is under Israeli military and civilian control.

Which basically means status quo; but at least means the Defense Ministry may be positioned to prevent settlers from unilaterally expanding further.

Quote

...adopt a NIS 20 billion plan for transportation infrastructure in Arab communities; extend a freeze of the Kaminitz Law on building restrictions until the end of 2024; and formally recognize three Bedouin communities in the south within 45 days of the government’s swearing-in.

All three of these are more about benefits for Israeli Arabs citizens rather than Palestine, though the Kaminitz Law continuing to be frozen may benefit the West Bank too. Basically, it's a law about trying to prevent illegal building construction, which Israel mostly used to demolish Arab houses in places they didn't want Arab houses. I'm not sure if the law was ever used to justify actions in the West Bank though. It was passed in 2017, and the Attorney General announced a temporary "freeze" on enforcement of it last November.

Quote

The deal between Ra’am and Yesh Atid includes a deputy ministerial post for Ra’am in the Prime Minister’s Office, chairmanship of the Knesset Interior Committee, a deputy Knesset speaker and chairmanship of the Arab Affairs Committee.

Not sure if any of this will mean much, but it at least shows that Ra'am is being treated like an actual coalition member. Worth noting, the Arab Affairs Committee is brand new. Netanyahu first proposed it back in April when he was trying to get Ra'am to join a right-wing government, and it looks like the coalition kept the idea. But since it's new, it's unclear how much actual power the committee will have.

[Fez]

And it's official, Israel has a new PM after 12 years. The vote was 60-59 with 1  Ra'am MK abstaining, meaning this coalition has literally the most narrow majority possible. Although the vote for the coalition's candidate for Speaker was 67-52, which is a bit better. I believe the other Arab parties voted in favor (not sure who else could've), but I'm not positive.  If the other Arab parties are willing to at least somewhat support the new government from the outside that will help with the government's stability.

The other right-wing parties do not seem to be taking losing power well. There was a ton of heckling during the session speeches and multiple MKs had to be removed from the chamber. Yair Lapid even decided against giving his prepared speech to instead call out the right-wing for being such an embarrassment.

Netanyahu vowed to remain opposition leader and lead Likud in whenever the next election is held. Hopefully the government passes that indictment law against him soon (also, since he's no longer PM the courts could finally compel him to attend his corruption trial).

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 hours ago, Fez said:

Netanyahu vowed to remain opposition leader and lead Likud in whenever the next election is held. Hopefully the government passes that indictment law against him soon (also, since he's no longer PM the courts could finally compel him to attend his corruption trial).

Would it be politically optimal for the likud party to distance themselves from him now?

 

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Would it be politically optimal for the likud party to distance themselves from him now?

 

Probably. But the thing is, except for a short break around 2000, Netanyahu has led Likud since 1993. Every official in that party is a loyalist of his now. The ones that weren't either left politics or created/joined one of the parties that makes up the new government.

The one thing that could maybe force him out would be the ultra-orthodox parties saying they'd refuse to join any future government with him. But over the past 12 years those parties have gone from being willing to join any government willing to protect ultra-orthodox rights (and as such have been in almost every government since the '70s until now) to being right-wing only; so they have no leverage. 

If he's convicted in his ongoing corruption trial, that'll probably be the end. But otherwise I'd assume he'll keep leading Likud at least through the next election. If Likud loses that one, then I could see him retiring from politics. 

[DMC]

There are some striking similarities between Likud's situation with Bibi and the GOP's with Trump - including the apparent ability of both to be able to do anything without losing their voters.  One significant departure, at least for now, is Bibi does appear to have an intraparty challenge:

Quote

Nir Barkat, the former Jerusalem mayor who hopes to succeed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as leader of Likud, said Netanyahu got his “considerations” wrong and should have stepped aside in recent weeks, thus thwarting Sunday’s expected swearing-in of an eight party coalition from across the political spectrum, excluding Likud.

Had Netanyahu moved aside, said Barkat, “Likud and the national camp would have been forming the government on Sunday.”

Barkat spoke in an interview broadcast Saturday as a TV poll showed him in second place, behind former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, as Likud voters’ preferred candidate to succeed Netanyahu if he were to quit as leader of the party. (Netanyahu has made clear he will lead Likud into opposition if the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid coalition is approved by the Knesset, as expected, on Sunday, and has vowed to quickly bring down what he calls “a dangerous left-wing government.”)

Asked who they would back as Likud leader if Netanyahu were to retire, 27 percent of Likud respondents said Cohen, followed by MK Barkat with 16%, according to the Channel 12 news poll.

Cohen is seen as having enjoyed a close personal relationship with Netanyahu throughout his tenure. The premier is widely reported to have cited Cohen in the past as a potential successor.