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Ukraine 22: Anyone else holding their breath?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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14 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Another rumor (without visual confirmation so far) is that Nova Kakhovka, on the left bank of Dnieper, has also been liberated.

It seems that the Russians thought of the Dnieper river as some magical barrier that doesn't need to be defended with, you know, actual troops.

It's a twitter over-excitement.

Ukrainian troops arrived on the West bank opposite NK, and posted the pics from there; and people got over-excited and forgot that West =/= East

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

It's a twitter over-excitement.

Ukrainian troops arrived on the West bank opposite NK, and posted the pics from there; and people got over-excited and forgot that West =/= East

 

 

Hahaha — and this is why the standard is to say the right, or left, bank.

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Title of the video is a bit click-baity but is worth a look, largely discusses the purpose of the amphibious landing. At 4:40 it shows a Ukrainian army published clip of one of their tanks driving over those weird pyramid structures Russia built over hundreds of kms along the line.     

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5 hours ago, Gorn said:

Another rumor (without visual confirmation so far) is that Nova Kakhovka, on the left bank of Dnieper, has also been liberated.

It seems that the Russians thought of the Dnieper river as some magical barrier that doesn't need to be defended with, you know, actual troops.

Incorrect as it appears to be, it does seem like the river crossing from right to left bank is easier than left to right bank. Denys Davydov (Ukraine war Telegramer / Youtuber) claims the right bank (controlled by Ukraine) has a higher elevation than the left bank, and on the left bank there is a lot of flat, open space which is easier to hit with artillery to prepare the way for crossing. So I guess the potential is there at some point. Just that Ukraine artillery and air defence would have to push Russia far enough back that Russia couldn't hit at the left bank with their own artillery as Ukraine tries to cross.

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In retaliation to Canadian sanctions Russia has imposed new sanctions on Canada. Certain people are now banned from traveling to Russia. Among  these people is Jim Carrey. Well that is hitting Canada where it hurts. 

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1 hour ago, maarsen said:

In retaliation to Canadian sanctions Russia has imposed new sanctions on Canada. Certain people are now banned from traveling to Russia. Among  these people is Jim Carrey. Well that is hitting Canada where it hurts. 

Send in the Pet Detective to recover the raccoon!!

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This may be bad: per reports missiles aimed at Lublin (on border with Ukraine) missed and went into Poland, killing at least two Polish citizens and being the first documented attack on NATO ground (albeit accidental). Polish ministry is emergency convening now. 

I kind of think that cooler heads will prevail and this won't cause an escalation, but I think it's worth noting it in case that's not the case.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

This may be bad: per reports missiles aimed at Lublin (on border with Ukraine) missed and went into Poland, killing at least two Polish citizens and being the first documented attack on NATO ground (albeit accidental). Polish ministry is emergency convening now. 

I kind of think that cooler heads will prevail and this won't cause an escalation, but I think it's worth noting it in case that's not the case.

 

Depends on what is meant by "escalation." I doubt Poland invokes Article 5 of NATO for instance. But it could mean a further expansion of the kinds and quantities of military aid that Ukraine gets.

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Hopefully this will light a fire under NATO to hurry up and get Ukraine the best available anti-missile systems and plenty of them.  I have some sympathy for not handing over potentially offensive/escalatory weapons, but missile defenses seems like the opposite of that.  That reluctance has allowed Russia to kill a great many Ukrainian civilians.

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4 hours ago, maarsen said:

In retaliation to Canadian sanctions Russia has imposed new sanctions on Canada. Certain people are now banned from traveling to Russia. Among  these people is Jim Carrey. Well that is hitting Canada where it hurts. 

Margaret Atwood also will now be prevented from holidaying in St Petersburg. Plus Stephen J Peters, city council member for St Thomas, Ontario, population 42 000. 

ETA, also Katheryn Winnick (Vikings, Bones, Big Sky) is banned, so I'm sure Canada will be ready to admit the superiority of Mother Russia any day now. 

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5 minutes ago, broken one said:

Some predict Ukraine will get some airplanes soon.

IMO, aircraft is not what Ukraine needs. They'd be okay but not particularly important, Russian air defenses are still reasonably strong, and anti-air forces against Russia are very strong. Long gone is the time when the Ukraine air force was basically the only defense against Russian attacks (very early in the war, when Ukraine was relying heavily on static radar and defense systems that Russia had pinpointed and taken out). 

The most important and damaging weapon that NATO could deliver is the longer-range missile launch systems. I believe they're called ATACMS and are something that Ukraine has been requesting over and over again. HIMARS allows Ukraine to outdistance effective Russian artillery range and hit with precision important targets near the battle lines, but ATACMS  would allow a tripling of that range and be able to hit almost any logistical target in the theater. With it the train system for Russia could be crippled, almost any CNC targets could be taken out, and Russia appears to have no real defenses against missile attacks worth a damn - so far there are zero reports of any HIMARS being stopped, as an example. 

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US and Ukrainian intelligence both believe Russia is down to 120 Iskander ballistic missiles and 4-6 weeks' worth of artillery ammunition. Russia urgently needs those Iranian missile systems, but there is a big question mark over how many of them Iran can send and how quickly Russia will burn through their stocks.

They also think Ukraine has turned a corner on air defence. Out of the 90 missiles fired today, 73 were shot down which is an overwhelming success.

I suspect the Poland thing is not going to escalate into a full Article 5 declaration but it gives NATO all the excuse it needs to step up more missile defences along its eastern border and ship more equipment into Ukraine.

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I'm not sure if he means that this IS what Poland is doing or what he expects Poland will do.  But regardless, it makes sense and would serve to give Poland more leverage to increase support for Ukraine. 

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