What will happen in the North after the Battle of Ice ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Once the Battle of Ice is over, and that the Boltons are defeated (most likely outcome) or Stannis is, what do you think will happen in the Northern storyline ? 

What will happen with the Stark kids, the survivors of the Boltons and Stannis' forces, Melissandre, the northern houses and factions, the Greyjoy siblings and remaining Ironborn in the North, Howland Reed and the crannogmen, the skagosi, Davos and the Vale forces if Littlefinger and Sansa come ? 

What will the political issues and problems to deal between the fall of the Boltons and the war with the Others ? What will events and other fights do you see happening there ?

[csuszka1948]

Honestly, the Northern storyline is the one I have the best idea about. Yes, I might be wrong, but at least the plot I picture happening is consistent.

Main storyline:

1) Stannis will take Winterfell via guile, but it will take a toll and will alienate many of the Northerners. 

In the Battle of Ice, he will kill both Manderlys and Freys, then he will send in mountain clansmen dressed as Karstarks and Freys to meet with Roose, then open the doors for him and attack the Northerners. Many of these Northerners hate the Boltons with passion, but they hate the Freys much more, so when they see that the disgusting Freys again turned cloak, they will continue fighting against Stannis' forces, decimating each other until they realize the truth.

Stannis will take Winterfell in his most brilliant victory, but many of the Northerners will resent his deception. He will burn Wyman Manderly, which will turn even more people against him when Davos' survival is discovered. Mance will find a dragon egg amongst the crypt of Winterfell, and give it to Stannis.

2) Davos' mission to retrieve Rickon needs to fail one way or another, otherwise Stannis' rule in WF would be cemented. Davos also needs to see how his service to Stannis results in dead children, so that the sacrifice of Shireen will be more meaningful for his arc.

I think he will find Rickon in Skagos and he will be quite happy there, but he will convince Osha in taking him away, and this will lead to his death. Most likely, they will run into Ramsay, who set out to find Arya with his wolfhounds, but will bump into Rickon and Davos instead. He will play a hunting game with them, giving them a day advantage to run away. 

Around the same time, Jon - in Ghost' body - will set out to kill Ramsay (because the animal remembers and amplifies the hate, just like Ogell's eagle hated Jon Snow). He will find Ramsay just as he catches up with Rickon and Davos, and will choose to concentrate on killing Ramsay while ignoring the wolfhounds, which will result in Rickon's death (for which he will feel immense guilt). 

Davos will survive though and arrive with the body of a dead Rickon to Winterfell, telling the truth about Wyman's loyalty, which will further infuriate the Northerners.

3) Jon will be resurrected by Mel, dole out punishment to the 'mutineers', and then set out with the wildlings to the Bridge of Skulls, hoping to make an alliance with the Weeper, who has most of the wildling warriors. The Weeper will reject this alliance and plan to attack Jon and Tormund, but before he could attempt it, they will be attacked by Others and wights. Jon will be injured, and when his blood seeps into Longclaw, it will light aflame (just like Beric's sword lighted aflame after his resurrection) and he will cut down wights and Others alike mercilessly with this sword. His actions (being able repel the Others and wifhts) will earn the admiration of most of the wildlings, who will decide to follow him to Winterfell.

4)Jon will arrive to Winterfell leading a huge army of wildling warriors and take the castle under siege, when he will find out that Stannis and the Northerners are inside.

Stannis wants the wildlings to kneel, but they will refuse to do so, insisting on following Jon and many Northerners will prefer doing the same. The two stubborn leaders will want to avoid bloodshed and decide to settle their debate in single combat, with the condition that if the fight was fair, both Northerners and wildlings will accept kneeling to the winner.

Stannis is the better swordsmen, but his Lightbringer is a fake flaming sword, while Jon's 'Lightbringer' is a real, flaming Valyrian sword. Stannis seems to be winning, but Jon's sword will break Stannis' false one in two: Stannis will break before he bends.

After his victory, Jon is named King of the North and 'best swordsmen in the North' (I think the showrunners have stolen from this), while Stannis is spared but is ordered to leave Winterfell along with his men. After seeing the duel, it's quite possible (although I am not sure about this) that Melisandre will abandon Stannis and will name Jon Azor Ahai. 

5) Davos and some of Stannis' other followers will accompany Stannis back to the Nighfort, where he will meet with Selyse and Shireen. By this time, the defenses of the Wall have broken down and Others and wights roam south of it, and Stannis is forced to confront some of them before reaching his destination (thus 'leading the fight' as Mel foresaw).

Stannis still considers himself King and his duty to protect the realm against the Others. All his life, he has been jealous of his brothers, who have achieved more fame and inspired more love with much less work. He wants to be a hero and will not accept the belief that Jon is Azor Ahai. He will remember the story Mel told him and will realize that he will need a bigger sacrifice to become the true Azor Ahai and wake a dragon from stone: his daughter.

He and his most devoted followers (Axell Florent) will put Shireen on a pyre and burn her. Selyse will try to stop them, but she will be restrained. Davos will arrive to the scene late, but before the flames fully consume Shireen. He will be too shocked to stop it. The sacrifice will fail to deliver.

This time, Davos will not have the option to blame Mel for Stannis' decisions. His faith in 'his God' will be shattered, and he will push Stannis into the flames (exacting justice on him the same way Stannis exacted justice on Davos all those years ago), where he will burn alive along with his crown. Shortly afterwards, Selyse will commit suicide and Davos will be killed by the Queen's Men, putting a tragic end to their storyline.

Magic is a sword without a hilt, so I wouldn't be surprised if this Blood Betrayal (of Shireen)  facilitates the Long Night.

 

Other storylines:

Arya will probably return to the Wall or the North after hearing about Jon's death, but I doubt she will meet Jon before ADOS.

Bran will probably be forced to leave the cave around the middle of TWOW, and he will flee either further North (using the backdoor) or south into Gorne's cave system. He will definitely not meet up with his siblings in TWOW.

Sansa's path will probably also end up leading to North at the end of TWOW. I expect her to accompany LF to the Riverlands and encounter Brienne, Jaime and perhaps Lady Stoneheart there.

If Theon and Asha survive, Stannis (or later Jon) may send them to the Iron Islands to use the "Torgon the Latecomer' precedent to overthrow Euron.

  

Edited July 2, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Lady_Qohor]

My guess is that we're going to see some kind of Stark civil war between Sansa and Rickon (with both being used as pawns by Littlefinger and Manderly respectively).

My hope is a resurrected evil Jon Snow

[The Commentator]

On 6/13/2023 at 2:01 PM, Lady_Qohor said:

My guess is that we're going to see some kind of Stark civil war between Sansa and Rickon (with both being used as pawns by Littlefinger and Manderly respectively).

My hope is a resurrected evil Jon Snow

It becomes a Freefolk country until Jon and the white walkers arrive. Then it’s the cold land of the walking dead.

[Corvo the Crow]

With news of Stannis’ victory, Sansa would probably want to reveal herself and head  North. I think she’ll get captured by Moon Clans, namely Timett and his burned men, possibly after Shadrich kidnaps her. Timett knows and respects Tyrion so revealing herself to be his wife would mean she’ll avoid being taken as a wife by some hairy clansmen. She can persuade them to take her North for a reward, especially considering Jon and Stannis treatment of Wildlings.

 

 

 

[Curled Finger]

I think the extraneous fat will be cut out which is what in the North?  Stannis.  Ironborn.  Bolton rule.  Somehow there needs to be stability in the north if it is to succeed in being an independent nation.  A diplomat will understand that Asha needs to be sent home.  Theon may not actually deserve death as punishment following his upcoming performance with Stannis.  He may need to go home, too.  Good riddance.  Boltons will certainly die.  Freys will certainly die.  Karstarks will definitely die.  Stannis will die by the end of Winds.  

Characters will make their way North and reveal themselves.  Galbart and Maege and Howland Reed need to show up.  Any appearance Jon makes south of the Wall will necessitate official conversations regarding northern independence and Stark etal stewardship thereof.   Secrets and plots will be revealed.  The Starks remaining will all return to Winterfell.  Dominion will be established and settled over the entire North.  Eventually.

The Others will be seen close to or at The Wall.  It's going to be very cold.  People will finally quit saying Winter is coming.  

[StarkTullies]

I think Stannis will win the battle very early on, and he will survive.  I don't think the Pink Letter's claim that Roose is dead is true (that would be a bit anticlimactic), but I think Roose and Ramsay will probably both die during the battle.  Perhaps Ramsay will escape to continue to be a nuisance, but I hope not: there are too many loose ends right now, and some of them need to be cut.  I think the "Grand Northern Conspiracy" is real, and Barbrey Dustin will have a pivotal role in destroying the Boltons.  While her grudge against the Starks is somewhat genuine, obviously she prefers the children of the man who married somebody else over the psychopath who murdered her beloved nephew.

Since we haven't seen Davos since the first half of ADOD, I don't think we will ever see Skagos except in memories.  I think he is already near Winterfell with Rickon, and in the immediate aftermath of the battle, Stannis will be declared king of a unified North, with Wyman Manderly ruling as Rickon's regent.

This will foil Petyr's plans to rule the North through Sansa, and I don't know how the Manderly/Rickon vs Baelish/Sansa power struggle will work.  Regardless, I think the "lone wolf starves but the pack survives" is the Stark theme, and I don't think any of the Starks will go in open war against each other.  I hope Petyr Baelish will be exposed and destroyed as soon as Sansa gets the Vale's backing, and maybe ruling the North is not in Sansa's future, but ruling the Vale instead?  That said, I think the North would prefer Ned's eldest daughter over a 5-year-old boy being governed by someone who worships the Seven.

I think Jon is dead and will come back "changed" but still a good guy.  Whether he abandons the Watch after they murdered him or not, I can't guess, but I think Robb's will to name Jon Stark as King in the North will surface soon.  If Wyman is genuine about his love for the Starks and not in this for his own power, he would be happy to accept Jon as king, but I'm not sure.  I also don't know if Jon would be happy to accept the crown, or the North would accept a supposed oathbreaker (since I don't think "I died and came back from the dead" would be widely believed as an acceptable justification for abandoning the Watch).

Stannis will die in AWOW, but he will go out in a bang rather than a whimper.  I don't think the Starks will need to remove him; he will remove himself by his own misguided obsession with destiny.  I think the Starks (not sure which one) will be in unquestioned control of the North by the end of TWOW, when I assume the Others will finally breach the Wall.

As for the non-Stark POV characters in the North: I think Davos will cease to be a POV by the end of the book after there are multiple characters in Winterfell, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will die.  I think Theon will die before the story's end but not immediately; I suspect that somehow Bran will spare him from execution.  I have no guesses what will happen to Asha.  I think Arya's first stop on her return to Westeros will be the Riverlands so she has a while left before she reunites with her siblings in Winterfell, but I think Bran will probably make it to Winterfell by TWOW's end.

[SeanF]

I think Stannis will win the battle, and take Winterfell.  Whatever Stannis may wish, I expect that brutal vengeance will be meted out on the Boltons and the Freys, and anyone who is seen as a partisan for them.  I think that Roose is far too canny to be taken alive, but Ramsay will be.  As per the show, I imagine his death will be karmic, either being fed to dogs, hunted, or flayed alive. 

On the face of it, therefore, Stannis has won the North.  I doubt if he'll be terribly popular with the Northern lords, but they'll prefer him to their enemies.  If and when Jon is resurrected, there will probably be a lot of people who will prefer him as king, but he will be loyal to Stannis. 

I think Shireen will be burned at the stake.  Only the Wall being breached would persuade Stannis to burn his daughter.  Alternatively, she might be burned, by Melisandre, in order to resurrect Jon Snow.  But, I think it more likely that Gilly's child will be sacrificed, in order to achieve that end.   Either way, I think that Jon would be badly tormented to learn that a child had been sacrificed to restore him to life.  I think that would be especially true if it were Monster, since Jon himself forced Gilly to abandon him, and to take Mance's child instead.

If Stannis burns his daughter, I think it would break him, and he will likely die, in battle against the Others. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by SeanF

[Craving Peaches]

Stannis wins the battle for Winterfell and takes the castle but dies of starvation. His army is already starving, and the supply situation inside the castle isn't looking good. With the heavy snows, I doubt any of his Northern allies will be able to transport supplies in time either.

[Corvo the Crow]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Stannis wins the battle for Winterfell and takes the castle but dies of starvation. His army is already starving, and the supply situation inside the castle isn't looking good. With the heavy snows, I doubt any of his Northern allies will be able to transport supplies in time either.

Being from a starved defender of a castle to a starved attacker of a castle. Mannis has gone full circle or what?

Perhaps someone carries beets over White Knife and my man Stannis raises a Beet Lord. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Tyrosh Lannister]

Stannis wins the battle of ice. He's then stuck at winterfell because of winter and heavy shows. Shireen, Mel and selyse join him. The others attack - in order to stop them/ get a flaming sword Shireen is sacrificed but it doesn't stop the Others. Stannis dies fighting the Others. 

[Loose Bolt]

Boltons and Freys will win Battle on Ice and victorious Roose will sacrifice captured Stannis to Old Gods by flaying him and he will use blood of his victim to make his blades sharp.

Magic has returned to Planetos and so ancient rituals that had not worked without available magic will now work and bc Stannis had Royal Blood the sword Roose blessed with royal blood will ignite and so Roose will have flaming sword.

[SaffronLady]

On 6/14/2023 at 1:58 AM, csuszka1948 said:

This time, Davos will not have the option to blame Mel for Stannis' decisions. His faith in 'his God' will be shattered, and he will push Stannis into the flames (exacting justice on him the same way Stannis exacted justice on Davos all those years ago), where he will burn alive along with his crown. Shortly afterwards, Selyse will commit suicide and Davos will be killed by the Queen's Men, putting a tragic end to their storyline.  

Based on this and Lml's reading of Stannis-as-Azor-Ahai, I think this could get a wee bit more tragic.

I mean think about it. A king in the North, in a moment of absolute despair, with probably the fate of the world on his hands, was about to burn something. Now, what would be the perfect setting for such a scene?

A weirwood grove. Stannis would set up the entire pyre on a weirwood tree stump, and even fuel the burning with weirwood.

And most of the things would follow in your post. Davos arriving just in time to hear Shireen' dying scream, team Stannis killing itself in face of their princess and king's death.

Except, well, Stannis' storyline - as Stannis the man - ends, but this is where Stannis-as-Azor-Ahai is reborn. He will indeed gain the magic, the power to halt the White Walkers with the sacrifice of his blood upon weirwood, like how Azor Ahai forged Lightbringer with the blood of Nissa Nissa, and truly incarnate as the 2nd Azor Ahai

Spoiler

which means he is also the 2nd Lord of the White Walkers. To drive this point home, ACoK has Stannis using his own "fire" to kill Renly (via making a shadow from the fire, btw) in a possible mirror to Azor Ahai creating the White Walkers by driving the disembodied spirits of Children of the Forest out of the weirwood net with some sort of fire and blood magic. He would gain the power to end the threat of cold, death, and eternal winter to Westeros ... after losing everything, his family, titles, lands, vassals, armies, friends, allies, trust, duty, oaths, his every single stake in the realm, everything that had defined Stannis the man. So instead, Stannis the 2nd Lord of the White Walkers does the natural thing. He brings down the Wall and leads the White Walkers south, just like Azor Ahai, 1st Lord of the White Walkers did. In his pursuit to fulfill his destiny and duty to the realm, he becomes the very thing the realm and his past self abhors. No duty. No realm. Only death, and the winter without end.

I think this flow would make Stannis' storyline come full circle, a very tragic full circle.

[BalerionTheCat]

The Freys are defeated with the help of the Manderly. Stannis enter Winterfell as Manderly's prisoner. Then the Mummers' play ends, and most of the North switch sides. Stannis take Winterfell. In the confusion, Ramsay kills Roose and flee to the Dread Fort.

Manderly is regent for Rickon who will return sometime after with Davos.

After that it will be winter and the Others. Maybe Jon will be an Other himself. He would spare the Starks loyalists and bring their armies South, to fight Dany's armies of Fire.

Edited June 18, 2023 by BalerionTheCat

[Lady Ella]

None of the Freys who go North will return south. Stannis will win the Battle of Ice, but it will gain him nothing. He will quickly realise that he has no control over the northmen, who will go overboard in their vengeance. They will brutally murder Roose and Ramsay. They will also murder Fat Walda and her unborn child because the Starks will not be there to protect them. Thus House Bolton will be extinguished. The northmen will thank Stannis for his kind assistance and wish him well but will crown Jon KitN.

There will be no "Dance of the Wolves", even if both Rickon and Sansa return North. The Starks would not countenance that. Instead, the northern lords will get together to discuss the legal issues like adults. They will conclude that, since nobody knows for sure whether Bran still lives, Rickon cannot be king. Jon, however, can because he is older than Bran and was specifically named heir in Robb's will.

The free folk and the northmen will form an uneasy alliance. They still will hate each other but they will realise that there are worse enemies out there, namely the Others and, even worse, southerners. Eventually, the free folk will integrate into the North.

Stannis will be furious at being rejected again and will burn Shireen in desperation. The sacrifice will achieve nothing and Stannis will die some sort of ignominious death. Davos goes home to his wife and remaining sons. Please.

With both Theon and Asha under the control of the northmen (once they steal them from Stannis), and with Euron likely leading the Ironborn to disaster, the Starks will be well placed to finally subjugate the Iron Islands. Whether that will actually happen I'm not sure, but I think it likely.

[Nevets]

Stannis will defeat the Freys and Manderlys at the abandoned village.  He will win Winterfell with the help of the turncoat Karstarks, who will pretend Stannis is dead and bring his sword, hence the Pink Letter.  Roose escapes, Ramsay doesn't.

Davos isn't coming back with Rickon anytime soon.  Martin sent him to Skagos for a reason, and it's not to pick up Rickon.  Anybody can do that, and he doesn't have to be in Skagos either.  My guess is something is going to happen up that way, and a POV is needed to report on it.  I'd be surprised if Rickon makes it south of the Wall in the next book.

I do not believe Jon is dead, but is seriously wounded and comatose, long enough for the banker and Jeyne Poole to arrive, and be sent on their way.  I do not see Jon accepting a crown as King of the North.  Even as commander of the Nights Watch, he can effectively rule the North.  He certainly isn't going to fight Sansa over it, especially with Tyrion nowhere in sight.  I think even the Northern lords will accept Sansa as long as they are satisfied she's not the puppet of an outsider.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I personally don't see a Dance of the Wolves happening, with the Stark siblings eventually managing to talk and to find an agreement peacefully, though there will still be tensions and schemes by their respective disgrunted and ambitious backers (especially Littlefinger) with Rickon being the official lord of Winterfell or price until Bran's return, Jon being the official regent and Sansa being the one who truly administrates things in Winterfell while Jon deal with the preparations for the War against the Others.

 

Something interesting to see will be to see the Stark trying to restore the authority and unity in the North with Free Folks, Mountain clans, Crannogmen and Skagosi being included in the North politics this time. 

The resolution of who will get the Bolton lands, and of the Hornwood issue with Larence Snow being likely to be legitimized but him having to marry a Tallhart or Manderly to solve the dispute over the Hornwood lands, as well as what to do with Theon and Asha (if they survive) and the last Ironborn in the North will also be things to keep an eye upon.

[Nevets]

It seems as if everyone expects Davos to do an out and back to Skagos, picking up Rickon and bringing him to White Harbor or Winterfell with nary a hiccup.  Nothing is ever that simple in ASOIAF, and this is no exception.

Martin sent Davos to Skagos because something's going on there, or points north, and he needs a POV to cover it.  If Martin wanted to, he could put Rickon anywhere in the North, and he could send anybody to pick him up.  Hell, if he wanted the Manderlys to get Rickon with little difficulty, he could simply have him hiding with the Manderlys.

I suspect Davos, with Rickon, winds up at Hardhome and possibly the Land of Always Winter.  A bad sign: Rickon's wolf's name.  A shaggydog story is one that is long and complicated, but ultimately leads nowhere.

Another thing is that Jon doesn't need to be King in the North to be in charge.  As Lord Commander of the Nights Watch, he is in a perfect position to be the de facto ruler of the North, as long as everyone is willing to do as he says.  "Power lies where men believe it lies".

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

10 minutes ago, Nevets said:

It seems as if everyone expects Davos to do an out and back to Skagos, picking up Rickon and bringing him to White Harbor or Winterfell with nary a hiccup.  Nothing is ever that simple in ASOIAF, and this is no exception.

Martin sent Davos to Skagos because something's going on there, or points north, and he needs a POV to cover it.  If Martin wanted to, he could put Rickon anywhere in the North, and he could send anybody to pick him up.  Hell, if he wanted the Manderlys to get Rickon with little difficulty, he could simply have him hiding with the Manderlys.

I suspect Davos, with Rickon, winds up at Hardhome and possibly the Land of Always Winter.  A bad sign: Rickon's wolf's name.  A shaggydog story is one that is long and complicated, but ultimately leads nowhere.

Another thing is that Jon doesn't need to be King in the North to be in charge.  As Lord Commander of the Nights Watch, he is in a perfect position to be the de facto ruler of the North, as long as everyone is willing to do as he says.  "Power lies where men believe it lies".

I disagree, I don't believe that GRRM is one who indicates characters' fates just based on their names, and I don't think that such importance would have been given to Rickon just to have him being unceremoniously killed just like in the shitty show. I do expect him and Davos to have some difficulties, but not enough to have them have a mortal encounter with the Others. 

Also I believe that Skagos will have its importance, more than to get an eye on Hardhome and to serve as a refuge to Rickon and Shaggydog. The island is said to have its own heart trees, and possibly skinchangers to teach Rickon on how to master his powers, and also the island is rich in obsidian which will be very precious against the Others.

And the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch has no legal or moral authority over the North, plus I strongly doubt that Jon will stay here after having been betrayed and murdered by his own men, even a small portion of them.

Edited June 19, 2023 by Terrorthatflapsinthenight9

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I disagree, I don't believe that GRRM is one who indicates characters' fates just based on their names, and I don't think that such importance would have been given to Rickon just to have him being unceremoniously killed just like in the shitty show. I do expect him and Davos to have some difficulties, but not enough to have them have a mortal encounter with the Others. 

Also I believe that Skagos will have its importance, more than to get an eye on Hardhome and to serve as a refuge to Rickon and Shaggydog. The island is said to have its own heart trees, and possibly skinchangers to teach Rickon on how to master his powers, and also the island is rich in obsidian which will be very precious against the Others.

And the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch has no legal or moral authority over the North, plus I strongly doubt that Jon will stay here after having been betrayed and murdered by his own men, even a small portion of them.

My main point with Rickon is that assuming he will make it south of the Wall early in the book with minimal difficulty is a dangerous assumption to make.  He might, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.  Or even a small shed.  I think he's gone for a long time, which seriously screws up the Manderly plans.  And when the Stark girls show up, things could get complicated for the Manderlys.

Jon is not only Lord Commander.  He is the son of Ned Stark and the brother, and probably heir, of King Robb.  That gives him lots of legitimacy.  Combine that with being in charge of an independent military outfit, and you get the perfect go-to person for leading military expeditions and mediating disputes.  He would likely be perceived as a neutral honest broker.  He's already intervened in one dispute, involving the Karstarks succession.  He can do everything a king does, except actually be one, something specifically prohibited by his oath.

Unless the mutiny is a lot more widespread and popular than I think it is, Jon will still have the support, or at least acquiescence, of the great majority of the Watch.  So I don't see him leaving over a murder attempt by a disaffected minority.  As for claiming he died, I find it hard to imagine Jon Snow, of all people, slithering out of a solemn obligation through a disputed loophole.