Jump to content

Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust


Recommended Posts

The more I think about this agreement with Putin and prigozhin, the less sense it makes.  If Wagner had the strength to take Moscow, why did they stop?  If Moscow could stop them, why make a deal?  How can either side trust the other such that they could coexist in the future?  Isn't the immediate next step that Putin gathers his forces and kills prigozhin?  If he doesn't, how can Putin maintain credibility?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This one is more interesting...  you said something more than continue.     

 

 

Is it merly a pause and a attempt to make sure they don't get attacked ovrnight?  and he will continue in the morning?

 

Stopping don't make much sence its a death sentence really.  but if he can make Putin think they are stopping and gonna turn arround it could buy them time overnight since they have pushed so far today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So weird. No one knows better than Prigozhin that Russian "security guarantees" are worthless. And it seemed like he was still in a good spot to actually win it all. Instead he's throwing it all away, and losing his existing support in the process. There's a lot of Wagner Telegrams saying they're going to break their contracts with the group.

Maybe it's an elaborate hoax, but if it is, it worked. There's footage of Wagner groups beginning to decamp from Rostov.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking about starting a third thread so we could have a trium[vir]ate. 

ETA: Back on topic. 

Quote

Stopping don't make much sence its a death sentence really.  but if he can make Putin think they are stopping and gonna turn arround it could buy them time overnight since they have pushed so far today.

It seemed to me that surprise and speed were the big advantages of the Wagner group's move. There've been reports of bulldozers tearing up roads to slow their progress to Moscow. 

Edited by dog-days
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, I sincerely, deeply, and breathlessly hope this means that again, the chance of a nuclear blast has been avoided!

Just now, dog-days said:

I was thinking about starting a third thread so we could have a trium[vir]ate. 

But we've only got, so far, Xenophon and Julius!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Again, I sincerely, deeply, and breathlessly hope this means that again, the chance of a nuclear blast has been avoided!

Maybe Lukaschenko managed to persuade Prigozhin that he was about to get nuked if he didn't back down?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I linked to the BBC site on this in the other thread, which has a lot of detail, which is what urged me to start a new thread as the old one was closed.

Edited by Zorral
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Darzin said:

We definitely need more details something is off here but who knows what. It' possible Putin is capitulating and staying on as just a figurehead but Mao shows why that's a dangerous proposition. 

Yeah, but the coup would have to go further than it did to make that work.  Putin is wounded, but he's a long way from dead.  Nobody is reporting to prigozhin the way they are/were reporting to putin. Wagner has no infrastructure to run the state, their only option is to decapitate the existing govt and take it over.  Which they haven't done (unless a HUGE portion of the Russian military is actually in league with Wagner).  Could that be possible?  That this "agreement" is just a soft surrender for Putin?  Seems unlikely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, williamjm said:

Maybe Lukaschenko managed to persuade Prigozhin that he was about to get nuked if he didn't back down?

It's hard to imagine the kind of personality that ends up as the commander of a private army not trying to call Lukashenko/Putin's bluff. Unless Prigozhin's so egotistical/blind that he really thinks he can survive his retreat for more than a few weeks?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...