Ukraine War: Wagner’s fading thrust

[Which Tyler]

Fair

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

I think maybe the significance is not that the Ukrainians have gotten across the river and onto that beachhead, but that the Russians have lost that territory and not been able to expel them.

To me, it demonstrated the weakness of the Russian forces in that area.

The weakness of the Russian forces in the area is undeniable.  The problem is that the Ukrainians cannot do a lot in that sector without taking a huge risk, because supplying troops over the Dnipro is extremely difficult (as the Russians learned/demonstrated last fall). 

It is unlikely to me that the Ukrainians are going to be able to accomplish much in that area, other than generally making the Russians look bad.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Anybody else having problems accessing twatter pages with Musk apparently trying to force you to sign up to read content there?

Which is most def not happening.

[Werthead]

The difficulties in resupply are real, but also significantly less difficult for Ukraine than for Russia. The strategic advantage is enormous. If Ukraine can advance with its right flank on the coast along all of Kherson Oblast up to the neck of Crimea, it does not need to worry about flanking attacks (as Russia's amphibious operations capability was doubtful last year when they considered and rejected plans for attacks on Odesa and Moldova that way, and is now non-existent in that sector) and can bring all of its attacking power to bear against the Russian line, clearing it from the sea to the Dnipro along a wide but not too-wide front. It also makes Russia fight a multi-front war and overstretch its current manpower. It also puts Ukrainian forces right behind the multiple layers of defence further east and it cuts off Crimea and the main resupply route from the SW of the line. Effectively it allows them to roll up a large portion of the Russian line from the west.

It would be titanically difficult, though and would likely entail heavy losses during the setup of the bridgehead.

It's worth noting that Russian milblogger coverage of the possibility is through the roof, for the exact above reason. As their influence on the war has increased, it might be that they call for additional reinforcements to the area, stripping support away from elsewhere on the front. So even the threat is useful.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Werthead

[Loge]

27 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Anybody else having problems accessing twatter pages with Musk apparently trying to force you to sign up to read content there?

Which is most def not happening.

It looks like it's completely impossible to access any Twitter content without signing in now. 

[Derfel Cadarn]

34 minutes ago, Loge said:

It looks like it's completely impossible to access any Twitter content without signing in now. 

What about imbedded links here? 

[dog-days]

5 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

What about imbedded links here? 

Had a look at the UK thread (Twitter-town) in incognito mode and I could still see them. 

[Werthead]

Massive return to prominence of cope cages on Russian tanks and even APCs, which is a bit weird as the new munitions and loitering drones Ukraine has are far more powerful than what they had during the first age of the cope cage during the initial invasion. Not entirely sure why Russia is even bothering with them any more.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Werthead

[Loge]

15 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

What about imbedded links here? 

That's still visible. You just can't go there to read the replies.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Replies aren't the problem. Issue is that the anti-twitter people and horses can't check on their news sources like wartranslated or gerashchenko anymore, and we have to rely on other folks to post updates. Which is annoying, so onbrand for Musk.

Edited July 1, 2023 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Wilbur]

3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Replies aren't the problem. Issue is that the anti-twitter people and horses can't check on their news sources like wartranslated or gerashchenko anymore, and we have to rely on other folks to post updates. Which is annoying, so onbrand for Musk.

Exactly.  I never paid any attention to Twitter before the Russian invasion, and I guess I won't any longer now that Musk is busily shooting off Twitter's feet.

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Exactly.  I never paid any attention to Twitter before the Russian invasion, and I guess I won't any longer now that Musk is busily shooting off Twitter's feet.

I mostly go there for gay fanart and get news about local elections 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Exactly.  I never paid any attention to Twitter before the Russian invasion, and I guess I won't any longer now that Musk is busily shooting off Twitter's feet.

Ukraine is what pulled me into twitter as well.  I kept looking at all the twitter links here and decided “what the hell”. Then Musk bought it.

[Werthead]

Allegedly the secret visit by a top CIA official to Kyiv last week was to hear the long-term plan to end the war.

Apparently Ukraine has acknowledged that a direct assault on Crimea would be incredibly difficult, bloody and possibly unacceptably (if only to the Americans) escalationary. As a result, their plan is to retake a large amount of currently Russian-held territory and put Crimea under direct fire control (with ATACMs and Storm Shadow, large parts of it are already), with the threat to cut it off from Russia at will. They will then negotiate with Russia from a position of strength. Unclear what terms that would offer that Russia might find publicly acceptable.

Allegedly the FSB has also thwarted an assassination attempt on Putin, involving blowing up a bridge his motorcade was going to travel across. Note that major outlets are not reporting this story at the moment.

Take all with a grain of salt.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Ukraine MoD video…

 

[Werthead]

Looks like the Ukrainians have resumed their heavy attacks on the front south of Mala Tokmachka. Their attack there a couple of weeks ago failed, resulting in the first significant losses of western-donated vehicles.

However, it appears that the Russians have pulled back from that sector, allowing Ukrainian recovery vehicles to pick up some of the lost vehicles. Three Bradleys were recovered in pretty good condition and a Ukrainian T-72.

Apparently the Russians retreated past the first defensive line in the area, and Ukrainian forces have followed them in, mounting a major assault at Robotyne. The 47th Mechanized Brigade was deployed to follow up on initial Ukrainian successes and have driven the line back along a wide swathe of the front. Ukraine seems to have recovered an area 1.5km deep and 6km wide. There is now a "continuous assault" in progress along that sector of the front, with the Ukrainians repeatedly hitting Russian forces and not letting up. Reports of a breakthrough are premature, but the Russians are taking heavy losses in that area.

This is on the Orikhiv-Tokmak front, the most heavily-defended sector of the Russian line. If the Ukrainians have staged a breakthrough here, that's very impressive.

In the meantime, the British MoD has indicated that Ukrainian units are stepping up their attacks south of the Dnipro. The situation in the area is confused, with Russian lines appearing porous and some Ukrainian spoiler units slipping through the lines to attack areas behind the lines. The Ukrainian goal seems to be moving towards the ruined Antonovskiy Bridge to secure the southern side and then clearing Russian forces in the area. 

There's also been some suggestion of Ukraine fielding drones to act as pointers, locking onto moving vehicles which can then be hit by HIMARS (HIMARS shells can change their bearing mid-flight based on dynamic GPS updates, within a certain window). Previously Ukrainian artillery spotting to target acquisition to firing was so fast the vehicles that had parked for just a few seconds could be hit and destroyed, but they needed to be stationary. Now they can be hit on the move at a normal driving pace, forcing them to either drive at top speed everywhere (not great for safety, fuel consumption or wear and tear) or risk being killed.

Warning from the chief rabbi of Moscow to Jews to leave Russia, citing fears that they may be scapegoated for the failure of the invasion.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

Suchomimus took down the two videos of Russian tanks (T-64, T-90) being destroyed in and around Robotyne this morning, which is a shame because his commentary was highly entertaining.  

But based on other video and reports from Reddit, that sustained assault by Ukraine is indeed doing some work as they grind south.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Wilbur
videos zapped

[Zorral]

Russia, Wagner, Prigozhin and money -- pretty interesting:

Quote

.... But Russia’s foreign policy goals remain the same; since it can’t win allies with diplomacy or soft power, it has to do so by state capture or force. Whether it’s Wagner or someone else, Luzin said, “Russia still needs proxy forces there to continue its trouble-making approach in Africa.”

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/7/2/23781794/wagner-group-africa-russia-uae-putin

Additionally, so is this book from 2015 interesting, The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine by Serhii Plokhy. He begins with ... the Scythians! Yay. Yet is it relatively succinct.  As sidebar, it seems that last season of Vikings? got more correct than perhaps we gave it credit.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Zorral

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Additionally, so is this book from 2015 interesting, The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine by Serhii Plokhy. He begins with ... the Scythians! Yay. Yet is it relatively succinct.  As sidebar, it seems that last season of Vikings? got more correct than perhaps we gave it credit.

Read it.  Very good book.

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Russia, Wagner, Prigozhin and money -- pretty interesting:

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/7/2/23781794/wagner-group-africa-russia-uae-putin

Additionally, so is this book from 2015 interesting, The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine by Serhii Plokhy. He begins with ... the Scythians! Yay. Yet is it relatively succinct.  As sidebar, it seems that last season of Vikings? got more correct than perhaps we gave it credit.

Given the "long-spoon approach" to state capture that Russia uses via Wagner, there are several historical precedents that should serve as warnings to those who are employed by Wagner.

For example, they should consider the way that the Air America pilots and staff were discarded and disowned by the CIA / USAAF / Federal Government after the assets of Air America were sold off to Evergreen.  Despite the war wounds and disabilities acquired in the service of the US government toting guns, mercenaries, opium and other impedimenta around Indochina, the Air America guys were shut out of any sort of long-term care or compensation by the government for decades.

I doubt very much that once the utility of Wagner has worn down, Russia will maintain or care for the Wager staff who carried out the diplomatic and political will of the Kremlin.  Which is an incentive for Wagner staff to line their pockets as much as possible while they are in the field, which in turn likely reduces the effectiveness of their efforts on Russia's behalf, which in turn accelerates the ultimate dissolution of the organization that will cut them adrift.  Perverse incentives and a vicious cycle leading to destruction seem like a poor career roadmap.