Catelyn Stark was right, about basically everything

[sifth]

25 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Robb was far away and she had no way to communicate with him.

So instead, she chooses to break Jamie out of prison? Which is not a prisoner exchange. If I were the Lannisters, I wouldn't have given Sansa back to them, after learning that.

Edited July 12, 2023 by sifth

[James Arryn]

Cat gets things wrong, but outside her (imo borderline unforgivable) repeated decision to punish a child for his father’s actions while effectively forgiving the father, her choices almost always have some understandable thinking or at least motivation. What I find really interesting is the way GRRM uses her general competence and intelligence and unquestionable decency (same caveat) as a person to get us to not notice her unreliability in some areas. 

For example, though a Southron lady herself, she has over the years adopted Northern prejudices and perspectives. She sees ‘knights of summer’ despite the fact that these silly southern swordlings both destroy Stannis’ army and have a long history of fighting just as hard and tough as Northerners. Her attitude towards Renly’s strategy is not ‘what is his best course of action for his own success?’ but rather what is best for Robb and she reveals that to him pretty early in the conversation. Whereas several of the best strategic thinkers in Westeros think Renly has adopted a great and ~ unstoppable strategy.

She looks at slow moving and tourneys as distractions from the real fight, but that’s again under the assumption that marching immediately on KL is the best course of action, but that’s only the most helpful for Robb, it’s completely wrong for Renly, all undoes the great work he has done sustaining the morale and logistics of the winning army to rush to make the same mistake Stannis (and Jaime, though to be fair Jaime at least had no way of knowing an enemy army might be anywhere remotely near) makes, getting caught in a siege with an enemy army in the field. And without even Stannis’ actual need for urgency to, if not excuse it, at least make it an understandable gamble. Time is working against Stannis, but it is doing the exact opposite for Renly, he has by a mile the strongest army, and greatest logistical situation and base, and despite or arguably because of his strategy and Southronishness his men undoubtedly love him and are in extremely high morale. Time is working for him. Or, as Sun Tzu puts it, ““To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” 

And, again, he was winning. Barring the first deus ex machina moment in the main text, he is king, the Lannisters are destroyed, Robb is probably subject to the IT but retains the same royal stylings (for now) that Dorne does, and the 7K are fairly unified and pacified to deal with the Others. 

But it would not make for great reading…the war with the Others might prove un-winnable without dragons, but that’s no more of a criticism of Renly than anyone else at the time. But that aside his taking and securing the IT would be the kind of inexorable campaign that, say, Phillip conducted in ~ kicking the English out of all their territory in France barring Calais. Fun reading for military historians, but probably bloody boring to most everyone else. And besides, Renly had the ultimate black mark against him: he was not amongst the characters GRRM wanted to be a factor in the war of ice and fire, and the sudden demise of otherwise inevitable victory by Shadowbaby is supposed to be dramatic both because of it’s introducing magic into the Game part of the story and in showing that, because of new factors like magic, things normally ~ guaranteed in a worldly sense like Renly’s inevitable victory are anything but certain in this new supernaturally active setting. 

But Cat knows none of that, she just presumes they will be less effective because they are moving slowly (the right move), having tourneys and melees (the brilliantly right move) etc. instead of rushing to error because it would be better for Robb, and because like a good noble wife in Westerosi setting, she has absorbed and adopted the perspective of her husband’s land, including prejudices that blind.

 Because Family comes first in her house words, in her heart and in her analysis, and GRRM uses that to make Cat maybe the most understandable and (initially) least easily identified unreliable narrator in the text, great writing. So great that many readers still don’t see how her thinking and conclusions here were superficial, prejudiced, and just plain wrong and have been demonstrated as such. In part because brilliant George has used readers’ sympathies to get many of us to unwittingly absorb the same northern prejudices.

But, ironically, with the Brienne/Jaime/Tyrion move, she is both literally and figuratively putting all her eggs in a basket of Southron chivalry, an aspect that imo doesn’t get enough commentary. These kinds of wild swings of logic seem at least understandable because of her being generally smart, competent, perceptive, etc. but occur because (like Ned, ultimately) family always comes before everything else…honor, duty, and when necessary, reason and objectivity.

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by James Arryn

[Craving Peaches]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I think she made a very bad call of immediately running back to Riverlands after Renly died

It also made her look like the killer.

[astarkchoice]

51 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

It also made her look like the killer.

I need to reread but was the chestplate a tv or book thing ? Cause no one is assuming cat pushed a sword through armour...maybe obsessed with renly and freakishly strong for her already freakish size brienne!

[James Arryn]

17 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

I need to reread but was the chestplate a tv or book thing ? Cause no one is assuming cat pushed a sword through armour...maybe obsessed with renly and freakishly strong for her already freakish size brienne!

I think it’s his throat, possibly through the gorget, in the books. Or is that the show? One is through the back, the other the throat, can’t remember which is which offhand. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by James Arryn

[Craving Peaches]

13 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Cause no one is assuming cat pushed a sword through armour..

It was Renly's gorget (over his throat) that was cut. Most don't seem to know/care about this detail though. Brienne and to a lesser extent Catelyn are the main suspects just because they were in the tent at the time.

[astarkchoice]

2 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I think it’s his throat, possibly through the gorget, in the books. 

Yeah either way im sure they think its brienne physicaly did it....if cat stayed shed be safe enough

[astarkchoice]

2 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

It was Renly's gorget (over his throat) that was cut. Most don't seem to know/care about this detail though. Brienne and to a lesser extent Catelyn are the main suspects just because they were in the tent at the time.

Yeah it seems they feel brienne's obsession and somehow cat talked her into it...but if cat stayed im sure few would have thought it was her just brienne

[Bendric Dayne]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No, it was worst call ever. Also Jaime only lost his hand upon his recapture.

But why though? Was letting Jaime get killed by the Karstarks the better option? Keeping Jaime as a prisoner would obviously be ideal but I don’t think that was an option. The Karstarks were hell bent on revenge and they were going to murder Jaime. Robb was already going to lose his prisoner. By releasing him, Cat at least gave her daughters a chance at survival. On that point, I don’t think Catelyn thought there was much of a chance that Jaime would keep his word and bring his daughters back, but he has no way of doing that if he’s dead. So the tiny chance she believes exists of bringing her daughters back by releasing him, is still greater than the non-existing chance of him doing so if he’s dead. For Robb, a dead Jaime is as much of an asset as an escaped Jaime. 

[Springwatch]

3 hours ago, James Arryn said:

For example, though a Southron lady herself, she has over the years adopted Northern prejudices and perspectives. She sees ‘knights of summer’ despite the fact that these silly southern swordlings both destroy Stannis’ army and have a long history of fighting just as hard and tough as Northerners.

I think the 'knights of summer' is about a state of mind, not a geographical insult. The knights of summer treat war as a game - they only think of the glory of the moment and not about the devastation that follows, and the personal costs as well. Brienne hears what happened to the knights who teased her - most of them died. So when Cat said winter was coming for them, she was right.

[BlackLightning]

Arresting Tyrion was a good decision. Modern-day policemen arrest and hold people on much less evidence than what Catelyn had. Hell, modern-day policeman kill people for less than what Catelyn had.

And she has jurisdiction: she is the wife of the Warden of the North and the Hand of the King and the eldest daughter of the Lord Paramount of the Trident. The crime was committed in the North within Winterfell, the suspect was arrested in the Riverlands and the victim was her son. So I'm not seeing what the issue is.

People who hold the belief that arresting Tyrion was wrong (and that Catelyn should've somehow knew that Tyrion was innocent) are blindly biased in favor of Tyrion. Tyrion himself has done much worse than Catelyn for arbitrary reasons

Releasing Jaime without notifying the Lannisters and asking for permission from Robb was stupid. However, it was VERY UNJUST and SHORT-SIGHTED for Robb to not have made an attempt to get Sansa and Arya back with Jaime. It's a sensible and good trade. As we see, Robb later comes to regret that decision after Bran and Rickon are "killed" by Theon and Sansa is forcibly wed to Tyrion (and, as far as the Starks know, Tyrion is regularly raping Sansa). Not sure if there was any stopping Walder Frey and Roose Bolton with offering Sansa as a bride...

But had Sansa been retrieved, Robb would've had an heir tucked away in Riverrun. The North and the Riverlands would have easily rallied around her.

2 hours ago, James Arryn said:

I think it’s his throat, possibly through the gorget, in the books. Or is that the show? One is through the back, the other the throat, can’t remember which is which offhand. 

In the books, it's through the throat by way of the gorget. In the show, it's through the chest by way of the breastplate.

In any case, absolutely no one believes Catelyn murdered Renly. However, the Tyrells have even less reason to be sympathetic or merciful to the Starks BECAUSE Catelyn ran off with the number one suspect. And Catelyn was right to run off. If she escaped Loras Tyrell's rampage, then she would have to have escape Randyll Tarly's. Catelyn becoming a hostage would have done Robb less than zero good.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

The things Catelyn Stark was right about are insane. 

The only thing she ever got wrong was Littlefinger. She should have known him better, but goddamn was she right about virtually everything else. 

She don't miss

-Catelyn immediately deduces the Lannister incest and attempt to push Bran out of the window in her early chapters in GoT. 

-Robb shouldn't have sent Theon Greyjoy away (cost him the North) like Cat said. 

-Robb should have kept his marriage pact with the Freys (cost him everything at the Red Wedding) like Cat wanted. 

-Releasing Jaime Lannister wasn't the worst call. He lost his hand in the Riverlands and so he's no longer a fighter (something she couldn't have foreseen?). He might have gotten Sansa Stark released if he had the chance in KL. I'd call this a wash/ neutral decision on cat's part. 

-Catelyn was right about the Westerlings. Jeyne's family were not to be trusted. 

-Catelyn was right to tell Robb to keep his direwolf close at all times and to not trust people that Greywind didn't like. 

-She sensed the red wedding as coming and slapped Edwyn Frey for his deception (wearing armor under his silks).  

-Robb sends Catelyn to Renly against her wishes. When she returns, Robb is married to Jeyne Westerling. She would have objected to the marriage if she was there, she couldn't afterwards. She thought as much when she met Jeyne. 

 - Did she figure out the incest right away? She noticed that Jaime was not on the hunt the day Bran fell, and that she thinks he was pushed, but I don't see anything that suggests she made the leap to incest. When she hears it from Stannis later, she is shocked, wondering if Cersei could be that mad, which is an odd reaction if this is what she's suspected all along.

 - Everybody wanted Robb to keep his promise to the Freys, not just Cat. 

 - She doesn't distrust the Westerlings, except maybe Rolph. She recognizes that it was a poor trade giving up the might of House Frey for 50 or so men.

 - She sensed the RW when it was just about to break. She was as naive as everyone else before that.

 

But she misses a lot too.

 - She was completely blind to how loudly she announced her arrival at King's Landing.

 - She foolishly took the King's Road home again, and then stopped at the most popular inn in the area.

 - She seems to think that other people should do her bidding just because she swears to the old gods and the new.

 - She takes her anger for Jon's existence out on Jon, not Ned.

 

Please don't think I'm picking on Cat, however. Nobody plays the game perfectly all the time.

 

[frenin]

19 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

-Robb sends Catelyn to Renly against her wishes. When she returns, Robb is married to Jeyne Westerling. She would have objected to the marriage if she was there, she couldn't afterwards. She thought as much when she met Jeyne. 

Robb is married during the campaign in the Riverlands.

Cat gets right a lot of things and she gets a lot of bad rep but she also  blunders a lot.

 

• Seizing Tyrion.
• Telling Ned to trust LF
• Telling Robb to give half his army  to Roose, although Robb's downfall is mainly his own.
• Setting Jaime free out of desperation, which literally costed their lives.
• Telling Edmure to not have his folk inside the castle
• His reading of Renly's campaign, tho in these two instances i'm not so sure how much was Cat, how much was Martin.

 

 

[Springwatch]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 - Did she figure out the incest right away? She noticed that Jaime was not on the hunt the day Bran fell, and that she thinks he was pushed, but I don't see anything that suggests she made the leap to incest. When she hears it from Stannis later, she is shocked, wondering if Cersei could be that mad, which is an odd reaction if this is what she's suspected all along.

She worked out that Bran had seen or heard something that people would kill to keep secret. She also worked out that Jaime likely pushed him. But I don't think her imagination runs as far as incest.

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

But she misses a lot too.

 - She was completely blind to how loudly she announced her arrival at King's Landing.

It would have been good enough in most places. She underestimated Varys - most people do.

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

 - She foolishly took the King's Road home again, and then stopped at the most popular inn in the area.

There's safety in crowds. Not taking the King's Road, not sleeping at the Inn, would be very conspicuous - fewer people would see her, but they'd all know she'd got something to hide.

[BlackLightning]

13 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

When she hears it from Stannis later, she is shocked, wondering if Cersei could be that mad, which is an odd reaction if this is what she's suspected all along.

For starters, @Tradecraft is half-wrong. Cat figured out that Jaime (and maybe Cersei) attacked and tried to kill Bran. When she was praying in the sept before Renly's assassination, Cat had an epiphany and realized that the truth of Stannis' words was truer than she had thought.

Is it an odd reaction? Well, let's be honest...it's not an odd reaction.

There are a lot of characters who know or have a feeling that Cersei is up to no good. When they find out exactly what Cersei is up to, everyone is shocked and left wondering if she really is insane. Seriously! Everyone from Littlefinger to Jaime Lannister to Taena Merryweather to Catelyn Stark, the list is long and growing.

[BlackLightning]

19 minutes ago, frenin said:

Robb is married during the campaign in the Riverlands.

Cat gets right a lot of things and she gets a lot of bad rep but she also  blunders a lot.

 

• Seizing Tyrion.
• Telling Ned to trust LF
• Telling Robb to give half his army  to Roose, although Robb's downfall is mainly his own.
• Setting Jaime free out of desperation, which literally costed their lives.
• Telling Edmure to not have his folk inside the castle
• His reading of Renly's campaign, tho in these two instances i'm not so sure how much was Cat, how much was Martin.

 

 

Seizing Tyrion was not a mistake. Stop saying that! It was a good call. A bunch of other characters (Ned included) would've done the same exact thing...except Ned would've waltzed right into Lannister-controlled King's Landing with Tyrion in tow or chanced the journey north only to be intercepted by Lannister outriders. In any case, had it been Ned instead of Cat, Ned would've been blindsided by the Lannisters.

Telling Robb to give half his army to Roose was not a mistake. It was also a good call. Granted, it wasn't one that Jon Snow or Ned Stark would've made. BUT look at the alternatives...Greatjon Umber???

Telling Edmure that housing all of his smallfolk in his castle is a good call...one that is confirmed shortly thereafter by both King Robb and the Blackfish. Blackfish later proceeds to kick them all out after the Red Wedding. Why? Because the primary function of castles is as a military base and the secondary function of castles is to be the center of government. The presence of tens of thousands of peasants and their animals are not only a distraction but a hindrance. Most castles (Winterfell and Harrenhal are the exception) aren't built to house and protect hundreds of thousands of people.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

 - She foolishly took the King's Road home again, and then stopped at the most popular inn in the area.

But we already know why she decided to take the Kingsroad instead trying to find a ship to White Harbor

1. Given the fact that Varys and Littlefinger both knew that she was in the city and trying to speak to her husband, she no longer felt safe waiting around in the city for a ship bound for White Harbor. Disguise be damned: the longer she stays in the city, the more likely it is for Cersei (or Jaime) to find out that she too is in the city.
2. She was wanting to personally warn her father and brother so that they could start marshalling their troops and calling their banners. Ned had not only given her leave to do so but he expected her to do so.

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

There's safety in crowds. Not taking the King's Road, not sleeping at the Inn, would be very conspicuous - fewer people would see her, but they'd all know she'd got something to hide.

Could she not have got a boat home, like she did to get to KL in the first place? Probably quicker and certainly with a much lower chance of being spotted.

 

Quote

Given the fact that Varys and Littlefinger both knew that she was in the city and trying to speak to her husband, she no longer felt safe waiting around in the city for a ship bound for White Harbor. Disguise be damned: the longer she stays in the city, the more likely it is for Cersei (or Jaime) to find out that she too is in the city.

She may not feel safe in the city (albeit she trusts LF, so that shouldn't be an issue!) but by taking the most obvious roads she maximises her chances of running into someone outside the city who will recognise her. She's surely better off lying low in King's Landing under LF's protection.

After all, it doesn't matter for her purposes whether Jaime and Cersei find out she's in the city now or that she was in the city previously. They're going to be equally suspicious either way. And in King's Landing, Ned can protect her in a way he can't on the road, so her personal safety in KL isn't as much of an issue as it might be.

 

Quote

Telling Robb to give half his army to Roose was not a mistake. It was also a good call. Granted, it wasn't one that Jon Snow or Ned Stark would've made. BUT look at the alternatives...Greatjon Umber???

Cat has already warned Robb that he can't trust Roose Bolton (or Rickard Karstark). She may not expect the scale of betrayal that follows, but she's aware that Robb needs to be careful of him.

What's wrong with the Greatjon as a commander? We're given nothing to suggest any want of competence. Cat thinks he might be a bit impetuous but that doesn't mean incompetence. And he's loyal to Robb, which is not the only thing but is important.

Other options: Maege Mormont, Galbart or Robett Glover, Medger Cerwyn, Halys Hornwood.

There's also the Blackfish himself, although he has the problem that he doesn't come with any of his own troops so not giving him an independent command until the Tully troops are assembled is reasonable enough.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Alester Florent

[Corvo the Crow]

3 hours ago, Bendric Dayne said:

But why though? Was letting Jaime get killed by the Karstarks the better option? Keeping Jaime as a prisoner would obviously be ideal but I don’t think that was an option. The Karstarks were hell bent on revenge and they were going to murder Jaime. Robb was already going to lose his prisoner. By releasing him, Cat at least gave her daughters a chance at survival. On that point, I don’t think Catelyn thought there was much of a chance that Jaime would keep his word and bring his daughters back, but he has no way of doing that if he’s dead. So the tiny chance she believes exists of bringing her daughters back by releasing him, is still greater than the non-existing chance of him doing so if he’s dead. For Robb, a dead Jaime is as much of an asset as an escaped Jaime. 

Evet letting Karstarks kill him is a better option, that’s how bad it was. At least Karstark will be happy if he’s able to murder. Cat loosing Jamie is a lose all scenario.

[Bendric Dayne]

4 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Evet letting Karstarks kill him is a better option, that’s how bad it was. At least Karstark will be happy if he’s able to murder. Cat loosing Jamie is a lose all scenario.

Yeah Karstark will be happy, Robb won’t. He can’t just let his bannermen kill his valuable prisoners. So Robb would still be forced to kill Karstark for his crime. So he still loses the Karstarks. The scenario is basically the same, except a dead Jaime basically means a dead Sansa. So Cat releasing Jaime was actually the right move. It’s the least worse option. 

[csuszka1948]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

Robb is married during the campaign in the Riverlands.

Cat gets right a lot of things and she gets a lot of bad rep but she also  blunders a lot.

 

• Seizing Tyrion.

 

That was a good call in face of the information she had, only Lysa turned out to be insane.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

• Telling Ned to trust LF

 

Yes, she didn't apply the same to LF that she told Ned to apply to Robert... although that's probably because LF could at least pretend to be the same person he was in her childhood.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

• Telling Robb to give half his army  to Roose, although Robb's downfall is mainly his own.

 

I think she suggested not to give it to Greatjon. I think it was a good idea at the time, not knowing that without Greatjon there is Northern independence speech and that Roose will turn traitor due to unforeseeable circumstances (WF sacked by Ramsay)

3 hours ago, frenin said:

• Setting Jaime free out of desperation, which literally costed their lives.

 

It was a mistake, but I don't know where the idea of 'costing their lives' comes from.

Tywin would just let Robb walk back to the North because he has Jaime? You aren't serious.

Actually, the best way for Tywin to ever get back Jaime is to orchestrate the RW and trade Cat and Edmure for Jaime. It's possible that the Blackfish immediately executes Jaime as a response, but that the same was possible with Aerys and Jaime, and that didn't stop Tywin from demonstrating his 'loyalty' to Robert by sacking the city and killing the Targaryens.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

• Telling Edmure to not have his folk inside the castle

• His reading of Renly's campaign, tho in these two instances i'm not so sure how much was Cat, how much was Martin.

 

I don't know the first one.

I think in the second case, GRRM intended to have Cat's reading right about most things. Cat was raised to be a heir for years and she had basic martial knowledge.

Yes, it doesn't make much sense that Renly with his 20 thousand men somehow overextended themselves by rushing to SE when they are in their own land (Stormlands),while Tywin can live in enemy land (Riverlands) with 20 thousand men for months, but that was the intention.

The only part of Cat's reading that was wrong is the need for Renly to help out Robb - as Tyrion stated, Renly's slow marching strategy yielded success.