Ukraine: Breakthroughs… the vast majority of us hope…

[Kalbear]

It's fascinating to me how for the most part we get very sparse and general info from Ukraine-based sources and we get just this ridiculous firehose of stuff from Russian sources. Ukraine's opsec is significantly better at least as far as being publicly available.

What's also interesting to me is how bad the news is from those same Russian sources. I'd think that there'd be more propaganda and random garbage, but a whole lot of it is just absolute bad news.

[Spockydog]

This guy is almost as informative as Wert.

 

[SeanF]

12 hours ago, Wilbur said:

I am not aware of a great many historical situations where "consistently and intentionally failing to pay the troops" has resulted in positive outcomes.

Soldiers’ grievances frequently drive revolutions.

Had the Romanovs retained the loyalty of the Imperial Guard, they'd have retained power in 1917.

Edited August 18, 2023 by SeanF

[Zorral]

Russia recruited operatives online to target weapons crossing Poland
Russian spy agencies built a network of amateurs for operations including sabotage, assassination and arson — plots disrupted by Polish authorities

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/18/ukraine-weapons-sabotage-gru-poland/

Quote

 

.... Instead, the case has become another damaging blow to Russia’s spy services, whose unfounded assessments that Kyiv could be easily toppled shaped the disastrous invasion plan, and whose once-pervasive networks across Europe have been uprooted by waves of expulsions and arrests.

The plot in Poland marked an attempt to reverse this slide. Unable or unwilling to rely on its own operatives, Russia assembled a team of amateurs, including by using Russian-language postings on Telegram channels in Poland that are frequented by Ukrainian refugees, according to Polish officials, whose account was confirmed by their U.S. intelligence counterparts.

The Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Had it succeeded, the scheme might have paid off on multiple levels — slowing weapons deliveries while fanning resentment toward the 1.5 million Ukrainians who have fled to Poland since the start of the war. Even in failure, the downside was limited for Moscow, with mainly displaced Ukrainians, rather than GRU operatives, ending up in Polish prison.

Senior Polish officials said the plot crossed a dangerous threshold. “This is the first sign that the Russians are trying to organize sabotage — even terrorist attacks — in Poland,” said Stanislaw Zaryn, who oversees the country’s security services, in a recent interview with The Washington Post.

The case also has political sensitivities for Warsaw, where officials have not publicly acknowledged that 12 Ukrainian refugees are among those in custody, anxious to avoid the backlash Russia likely intended. Others arrested include one Russian and three citizens of Belarus.

In interviews, officials emphasized that while most of the Ukrainian suspects were from eastern provinces traditionally more aligned with Moscow, they appear to have been motivated more by money than ideology.

Investigators have since uncovered evidence that Russia was planning other, deadly operations. Recruits had been tasked to carry out arson attacks and an assassination, said an investigator directly involved in the case for Poland’s domestic security service, the ABW. The investigator would not discuss the targets. ....

 

 

[Werthead]

The USA has approved transferring F-16s to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands. The two countries are willing, and Ukrainian pilot training is getting underway. There are some signs that Ukraine is already upgrading at least some runways to accommodate the plane, although as previously noted they need to really upgrade all of them so Russia is left guessing where the planes actually are. The F-16s are unlikely to see action in Ukraine until 2024.

The USA is also considering sending M26 DCIPM cluster missiles to Ukraine to augment their HIMARS systems and would dramatically improve Ukraine's already-formidable counter-battery capability. It also sounds like the ATACMs argument is back on the table and the US is marshalling it as a response to further Russian escalation.

Red Wings airline had to cancel a slew of flights after two of their Boeing-777s were declared unflightworthy simultaneously and they cancelled a bunch of flights, stranding 400 Russian passengers in various parts of the country.  The international SITA system is also being withdrawn from all Russian carriers at the end of September, which carries information between Russian aircraft and other airports, and between other aircraft and Russian airports. This will severely limit Russian carriers' abilities to fly to other countries or have other aircraft land on Russian soil (the system is used in 90% of international flight processes, so replacing it will not be rapid). Moscow is also now closing its airports and airspace on a regular basis due to fears of drone attacks, even unfounded ones, impacting the capital's economy.

Russian military exports for 2023 appear to be heading for around one-third of pre-2022 levels. It appears that Russia's customers and potential customers are unimpressed with Russian hardware performance in the field.

The US intelligence community has reassessed its predicated outcomes for the Ukrainian counter-attack and believes that Ukraine will take Tokmak after a hard fight and press on to Melitopol, but liberating Melitopol with its remaining resources may be impossible, at least before bad weather sets in. Depending on your POV, either getting to Melitopol is excellent progress (it's far from the front at the moment, amidst some fears that counter-offensive could stall out before even Tokmak) or disappointing since they will fall short of severing the land bridge between Crimea and Russia. However, getting to Melitopol would potentially put all of the roads along the land bridge under fire control. ISW is sceptical that Ukraine needs to take Melitopol to help sever the road bridge, and believes there are other routes Ukraine could take to achieve that, with multiple routes to the Sea of Azov possible between Melitopol and Berdyansk. It depends if Ukraine can create a wide-enough sea corridor that can resist simultaneous attacks from two sides.

The mayor of Moscow has said that Muscovites must stand ready to make sacrifices for the motherland, a message that they will not be spared in the next round of mobilisation. Also some Kremlin insider rumours that Putin has decided to carry out a further round of mobilisation at the end of September which will publicly call for 300,000 new recruits but will actually seek to recruit closer to 500,000. There is considerable dissent over this within the Russian military and intelligence communities, who believe the strain of the last round of mobilisation at the end of last year is what led to the attempted coup and has damaged the Russian economy, and a further round could be disastrous. Some prominent Russian milbloggers have instead urged to freeze the lines as they are now (possibly even shortening them in some places) and make them impenetrable with all new recruits (of a smaller number) assigned to defence rather than offensive actions, and to make sure they are trained properly, and use Russia's newly-built Shahed factory to cajole Ukraine to negotiations or be hit with 6,000 drone attacks next year.

Kazakhstan's trolling game remains excellent: 

 

Edited August 19, 2023 by Werthead

[Erik of Hazelfield]

Zelenskyy has visited Sweden today and  has met with Sweden’s prime minister Kristersson. He’s eager to get Gripen fighter jets but Sweden’s airforce is so far claiming we need them for ourselves. Ukrainian pilots have been invited to train on Gripen though.

According to some sources, the Gripen would be a good choice for Ukraine. It needs a shorter landing strip (600 meters for landing and 500 for takeoff) and has been designed for easy maintenance by a small, mobile crew. I hope it will be possible to send some. 

[Werthead]

7 minutes ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

Zelenskyy has visited Sweden today and  has met with Sweden’s prime minister Kristersson. He’s eager to get Gripen fighter jets but Sweden’s airforce is so far claiming we need them for ourselves. Ukrainian pilots have been invited to train on Gripen though.

According to some sources, the Gripen would be a good choice for Ukraine. It needs a shorter landing strip (600 meters for landing and 500 for takeoff) and has been designed for easy maintenance by a small, mobile crew. I hope it will be possible to send some. 

Not to mention that in simulated exercises, the Gripen outflew and shot down five F-16s and a Eurofighter Typhoon to no losses. Obviously different to realworld scenarios, but the Gripen is a very impressive fighter for its class.

[Kalbear]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Not to mention that in simulated exercises, the Gripen outflew and shot down five F-16s and a Eurofighter Typhoon to no losses. Obviously different to realworld scenarios, but the Gripen is a very impressive fighter for its class.

I guess that's cool, but from what I can tell the most important thing for fighters in this war is their ability to avoid anti-air weaponry, which appear to be absurdly good relative to the fighters they're fighting against (on both sides). That is, IMO, one of the most striking things of this war that no one figured would be the case - that neither side would be able to bring to bear any kind of useful aircraft on a reliable basis, especially not the Russians. 

[mellyporter]

17 hours ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

Zelenskyy has visited Sweden today and  has met with Sweden’s prime minister Kristersson. He’s eager to get Gripen fighter jets but Sweden’s airforce is so far claiming we need them for ourselves. Ukrainian pilots have been invited to train on Gripen though.

According to some sources, the Gripen would be a good choice for Ukraine. It needs a shorter landing strip (600 meters for landing and 500 for takeoff) and has been designed for easy maintenance by a small, mobile crew. I hope it will be possible to send some. 

It's true, but anyway receiving F-16 will for sure make a difference. And it's good that finally it's 100% confirmed that Ukraine is getting them

Edited August 20, 2023 by mellyporter

[Werthead]

Ukraine has successfully carried out a drone attack on Soltsy Airbase between Moscow and St. Petersburg, destroying a Tupolev Tu-22M supersonic bomber. This may only be the second loss of a Tu-22M to enemy action (the first was one shot down by Georgia during the 2008 conflict). Russia still has over 60 of them in operation though.

Apparently Russia may relocate its long-range bombers to the Kola Peninsula to reduce the chances of Ukraine being able to hit their airfields, although this will limit the range of any aircraft deployed to hit targets in Ukraine.

[SeanF]

On 8/20/2023 at 7:09 PM, Werthead said:

Ukraine has successfully carried out a drone attack on Soltsy Airbase between Moscow and St. Petersburg, destroying a Tupolev Tu-22M supersonic bomber. This may only be the second loss of a Tu-22M to enemy action (the first was one shot down by Georgia during the 2008 conflict). Russia still has over 60 of them in operation though.

Apparently Russia may relocate its long-range bombers to the Kola Peninsula to reduce the chances of Ukraine being able to hit their airfields, although this will limit the range of any aircraft deployed to hit targets in Ukraine.

I’ve read a Daily Telegraph report that the Ukrainians are fighting their way into Robotyne.  Does that accord with your information?

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I’ve read a Daily Telegraph report that the Ukrainians are fighting their way into Robotyne.  Does that accord with your information?

Yes, although they are also trying to get around it and force the Russians to leave or be surrounded. 

[Werthead]

Ukraine still prefers exercising fire control over a settlement and then forcing the Russians to retreat through impracticality (all their food and ammo is blown up before it can reach them), but they have realised this is not always effective due to the Russian acceptance of insane casualties and the timescales involved, so they are being much more bolshy in this offensive of just fighting into urban centres and ejecting the Russians by force. That's worked in small-to-medium settlements, but whether they'd be prepared to do that for a bigger town or city is unclear.

Russian armoured assault on Spirne, on the Donetsk-Luhansk border, SW of the twin cities. It looks like a potential attempt to open another front in the conflict. Fortunately Ukraine was forewarned and repelled the assault with heavy Russian losses.

US military intelligence estimates that over 90,000 Russian troops are located along the Tokmak axis and west to the Dnipro and south to Melitopol. Ukraine has now deployed potentially two more of their additional mechanised elite brigades to assist the assault in that area. At least five remain unaccounted for on the field.

The World of Tanks guys have to be loving this advertising:

Metro 2033 author Dmitry Glukhovsky (a Russian author of a book that became an international bestseller after it had been adapted into a video game by a Ukrainian studio) has resurfaced and made his feelings on the war clear:

 

[Zorral]

The head of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group surfaced in Africa Monday and pledged to make Russia “even greater on all continents” in a new video message posted two months after his troops mounted an aborted mutiny against the Kremlin.

It was Yevgeny Prigozhin’s first such message since he led the failed revolt against Russian leader Vladimir Putin in late June.

Quote

 

The short video posted online showed Prigozhin dressed in military fatigues and brandishing an assault weapon in a savannah-like landscape that he claimed was somewhere on the African continent — the site of multiple past Wagner operations.

The video comes only weeks after a coup in West-African Niger that has sparked concerns among Western officials about an intervention there by Prigozhin-led mercenaries. Wagner is already active in Niger’s neighbor Mali.

“The Wagner Group conducts reconnaissance and search activities," Prigozhin said, according to a translation by the Russia’s state owned RT network.

"We are making Russia even greater on all continents! And Africa even more free. Justice and happiness for all the African peoples.” He added that the group had been pursuing “ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other bandits.”

The mercenary group, he went on to say, was hiring “real heroes” and continued to “to fulfill the tasks that were set and to which we made a promise that we could handle.”

The video yet again confirmed Prigozhin’s—and by extension, Russia’s—growing interest in Africa.

 

Video here:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/leader-of-failed-mutiny-against-putin-wagner-chief-prigozhin-surfaces-in-africa-with-pledge-to-make-russia-greater/ar-AA1fAggp?

[Werthead]

A lot of the talk about Putin's doubles is clearly trolling meant to annoy Russians, but this video is a bit WTF and makes you wonder.

Of course, it might not be a double. He might just be losing the plot.

Some rumours circulating that Robotyne has mostly fallen to Ukraine and Russian forces are pulling out. Unconfirmed, and there have been some similar claims a few days ago that were not correct. However, Ukraine has definitely achieved widespread control over the northern half of the town, allowing civilians to evacuate to Ukrainian territory for the first time.

Russian Telegram channels having a blow-up over Kherson. Several are claiming that the Russian military's claims to have removed the Ukrainian bridgehead last week were lies and Ukraine is now preparing to break out of the bridgehead, having secured solid river resupply routes. They feel there are not enough Russian forces in Kherson Oblast to stop them, and fear that Crimea could be cut off in weeks or even days.

It's really unclear WTF is going on in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and if Ukraine has the capability to mount such an assault.

[Maithanet]

13 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russian Telegram channels having a blow-up over Kherson. Several are claiming that the Russian military's claims to have removed the Ukrainian bridgehead last week were lies and Ukraine is now preparing to break out of the bridgehead, having secured solid river resupply routes. They feel there are not enough Russian forces in Kherson Oblast to stop them, and fear that Crimea could be cut off in weeks or even days.

It's really unclear WTF is going on in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and if Ukraine has the capability to mount such an assault.

Still seems very hard for me to believe that the Ukrainians could make a thrust like that.  The supply situation would be so tenuous, and you would have to risk a huge portion of your best troops.  Russia would almost assuredly call in whatever air forces are available, even if it meant losing a few aircraft.  Ukraine on the other hand would be relying on whatever mobile air defenses they can bring with them (and the ammo therein).  Russian troops aren't right in the area, but they aren't that far either.  If Russia pulls back and gives up a portion of their fixed defenses, but crushes a bridgehead of Ukraine's best troops, that is a trade they're probably willing to make. 

If I'm wrong and the Ukrainians can pull it off, I'll be delighted.  But it has always looked like a bridge too far for me. 

[SpaceChampion]

Would be nice if this is over this year.  What are the chances for a Ukrainian D-Day and what would that even look like?  I assume paradropping 200,000 soldiers behind enemy lines is out of the question.

Edited August 22, 2023 by SpaceChampion

[Werthead]

23 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

Would be nice if this is over this year.  What are the chances for a Ukrainian D-Day and what would that even look like?  I assume paradropping 200,000 soldiers behind enemy lines is out of the question.

One frequently-floated idea is Ukraine pinning down Russian forces along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area and then hitting Kherson with a massive invasion along the much-less fortified frontier and then getting behind the main lines, causing panic and a Russian collapse, as well as cutting off Crimea and causing Russia massive logistics problems trying to manage what would likely be a stampede over the Kerch Bridge.

I do think that's pretty unlikely. Kherson has been pretty heavily fortified as well, and the river is a huge impediment to the free movement of troops and reinforcements. But if you want to roll the dice on a big strategic swing, it's certainly an attractive idea. How plausible it is, given Ukraine's refusal to expend lives needlessly (something some US generals have started grumping about, to the annoyance of other countries pointing out that Ukraine lost more military dead in the first couple of weeks of the conflict than the US suffered in Afghanistan in two  decades), is another question.

[Makk]

35 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

Would be nice if this is over this year.  What are the chances for a Ukrainian D-Day and what would that even look like?  I assume paradropping 200,000 soldiers behind enemy lines is out of the question.

I just don't think Ukraine is going to risk this. Their strategy seems to be working better when they take things slowly and methodically. We don't really know how effective the overall counter offensive is because we don't have accurate information on the losses for either side, people are claiming it is a failure because it hasn't brought the rapid territory gains we are hoping for but that itself isn't the most relevant factor. Rather it should be judged by how much the enemy is being degraded. The war could still finish quite quickly if Russia collapses (or Putin is removed) but they have shown remarkable resilience in the face of poor morale. The basic grunt is more motivated by punishment if they take a step back or refuse to go to the front. I have tended to be too optimistic about this in general but I do believe Ukraine is doing better than we think, the reduction in Russian artillery fire proves that they have suffered badly.

There are quite a few rumors that there will be another even bigger mobilisation which will prolong things. I don't believe some of the numbers I have heard (over a million) because they simply don't have the logistics to support that even if they account for half to die in the first month. But I suspect there will be another one and it will be significant. How willing Russians at home are to accept this will determine how long the war continues for.

[Kalbear]

37 minutes ago, Makk said:

I just don't think Ukraine is going to risk this. Their strategy seems to be working better when they take things slowly and methodically.

Maybe. I think that's largely the case from a military standpoint, but from a political one it's a lot less successful - and next year may be real bad. Already we're hearing about problems recruiting/drafting Ukrainians and the overall opinion of US funding of Ukraine is dropping, even as more advanced weapons get added. Other countries are not liking the lack of food, either.