US Politics: Primary Schoolin'

[maarsen]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Ha, I was thinking about this. Can you explain why so many outlets are talking about it like it was a massive win for Mango? I get that he got something like 51% and Wrong DeS got ~ 21% and Nikki ~  19%, so I can see he won bigly in that sense, but it’s not people were super mobilised and energised to show up. I also get that the weather didn’t help. I also saw somewhere that he got roughly the same amount of votes he got when he lost to Cancun Ted… 

In most cases a candidate going into the primaries has very little name recognition outside of their state. Trump is running for a third time, was president once and is a well known quantity. You would be surprised if he did not do well. Getting half of a 14% turnout is not a landslide by any means. His base may be energized but when he looks down in the shower, I am sure he thinks 'energized!' regardless of the size of little Donny.

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, maarsen said:

In most cases a candidate going into the primaries has very little name recognition outside of their state. Trump is running for a third time, was president once and is a well known quantity. You would be surprised if he did not do well. Getting half of a 14% turnout is not a landslide by any means. His base may be energized but when he looks down in the shower, I am sure he thinks 'energized!' regardless of the size of little Donny.

Why oh why did you have to put that picture in my mind????

(can he though? see little donny? maybe w/ a mirror?)

[mormont]

Bold of you to assume Trump takes showers. 

(Regular ones, I mean.)

[Tywin et al.]

It is truly amazing he hasn't had a melting experience like Rudy yet.

[DanteGabriel]

37 minutes ago, mormont said:

Bold of you to assume Trump takes showers. 

(Regular ones, I mean.)

I assume he gets dipped in regenerative black goo like Baron Harkonnen.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

Ha, I was thinking about this. Can you explain why so many outlets are talking about it like it was a massive win for Mango?

 

The margin doesn't matter at all. The main reason Iowa matters at all is it can become a bragging point to win it. Even then it doesn't matter that much. It's pretty typical for a conservative candidate to win it then go on to lose later.

It doesn't matter to Trump at all as a victory, he didn't need it. It mattered to De Satan, so his chances just went from .02 to 0.00. He is no Ted Cruz and that's a sad position to be in.

Edited January 17 by Martell Spy

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Now, keep the Celsius numbers in, so that a civilized horse doesn't have to recalculate the temperature.

 

Edited January 17 by A Horse Named Stranger

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

 

The margin doesn't matter at all. The main reason Iowa matters at all is it can become a bragging point to win it. Even then it doesn't matter that much. It's pretty typical for a conservative candidate to win it then go on to lose later.

Yeah, I saw somewhere that Santorum won it and then lost to Romney, then Cancun Ted and we know how that went, and... I wanna say Huckabee but maybe I'm misremembering. 

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

It doesn't matter to Trump at all as a victory, he didn't need it. It mattered to De Satan, so his chances just went from .02 to 0.00. He is no Ted Cruz and that's a sad position to be in.

So, Wrong DeSatan is done, is that it? He's so disgusting but also so... weird!

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Now, keep the Celsius numbers in, so that a civilized horse doesn't have to recalculate the temperature.

 

"What percentage of the world uses Celsius versus Fahrenheit?

99 percent of countries on Earth use Celsius to measure temperature, but the US doesn't - why? Arbitrary, and for most of the world very confusing, Fahrenheit temperature measurement is a rod the US uses to beat its own back."

I don't know if the above is accurate but it is kind of funny. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

99 percent of countries on Earth use Celsius to measure temperature, but the US doesn't - why? Arbitrary, and for most of the world very confusing, Fahrenheit temperature measurement is a rod the US uses to beat its own back."

0 C may be the temperature where water freezes, but psychologically, 0 F is the temperature where my soul freezes...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

10 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

It doesn't matter to Trump at all as a victory, he didn't need it. It mattered to De Satan, so his chances just went from .02 to 0.00. He is no Ted Cruz and that's a sad position to be in.

No. He is not done. DeCultureware is betting his (donors') money on the DOJ or the Reaper (and the marginally greather than zero chance that Supremes uphold the disqualification based on the 14th Amendment). He still assumes, that the former guy gets convicted and has to drop out, or that tfg just drops dead.

This now a question, of whether he can hang on long enough. To which the answer is, I don't know. Anyway, that has been DeLoser's strategy for a while. He is hoping to inherit the MAGAt votes.

Haley will want him to drop out, so that there's no alternative to her, when the orange one gets his court.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

You're correct, people are just speculating that if turn out was low in the Iowa Republican primary, that it will be in November in the general.  Be prepared to read all kinds of doom-mongering and "Vote Harder!" and "the most important election of our lives" type of sentiments here over the next ten months.  

It isn’t?  The Republican Party is about to nominate a Fascist demagogue… how is this election not an existential crisis? 

[Tywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

"What percentage of the world uses Celsius versus Fahrenheit?

99 percent of countries on Earth use Celsius to measure temperature, but the US doesn't - why? Arbitrary, and for most of the world very confusing, Fahrenheit temperature measurement is a rod the US uses to beat its own back."

I don't know if the above is accurate but it is kind of funny. 

Arbitrary? How dare you! It's called freedom. And fuck the banks that also sometimes show the Celsius temp. We're Real Spaceballs Americans FFS. 

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It isn’t?  The Republican Party is about to nominate a Fascist demagogue… how is this election not an existential crisis? 

It is, and not just for americans but for everyone all over the world! 

But... I think if Mango is the nominee, he can't and won't win, despite all the borderline hysteria about Biden's low poll numbers. Because I do believe that most of the people who are pissed off at Biden now will swallow hard and vote for him in the end, because they'd likely be among the groups that will suffer the most if Mango wins and they know it (and I think Biden/Biden's campaing are counting on this to some degree). Then there are the independents and normie conservatives who can't stomach Trump... and here is actually where I think the danger is. If Trump loses and Nikki wins the nomination, a lot of this latter group would or could vote for her, no? I don't know, but whichever way I look at it I keep going back to Trump being the most dangerous candidate b/c of the risk of him winning the election, but he's also the candidate that will be the easiest to beat. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But... I think if Mango is the nominee, he can't and won't win, despite all the borderline hysteria about Biden's low poll numbers. Because I do believe that most of the people who are pissed off at Biden now will swallow hard and vote for him in the end, because they'd likely be among the groups that will suffer the most if Mango wins and they know it (and I think Biden/Biden's campaing are counting on this to some degree).

I lean that way as well, but given the Republican advantage in the electoral college, we Murkans can't afford to be sanguine or complacent about any predicted prospect. If the election were decided by the popular vote, then there'd be room for protests and other finer points. But this will be decided by a small margin, and so we need every person we can get to vote, and to get other people around them to vote.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

There's a greater than zero for him to win.

I thought in 2016 no way this bozo would win in a GE. Takeaway is: Complacency is bad. Don't make too optimistic assumption.

[kissdbyfire]

1 minute ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

I lean that way as well, but given the Republican advantage in the electoral college, we Murkans can't afford to be sanguine or complacent about any predicted prospect. If the election were decided by the popular vote, then there'd be room for protests and other finer points. But this will be decided by a small margin, and so we need every person we can get to vote, and to get other people around them to vote.

That makes sense. The electoral college is just

[Kalbear]

33 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is, and not just for americans but for everyone all over the world! 

But... I think if Mango is the nominee, he can't and won't win, despite all the borderline hysteria about Biden's low poll numbers. Because I do believe that most of the people who are pissed off at Biden now will swallow hard and vote for him in the end, because they'd likely be among the groups that will suffer the most if Mango wins and they know it (and I think Biden/Biden's campaing are counting on this to some degree).

Yeah, no. 

Most of the people who don't vote for Biden (or are at least threatening not to) are likely to be young, white, middle class educated people. They are almost certainly not going to suffer that much. Next would be the suburban white middle-aged folks, who will also not suffer that much. You see that here, on this board - the people threatening not to vote for Biden are the ones who aren't going to suffer.

The minorities, the poor, LGBT, children - they'll be suffering, and they'll largely turn out quite a bit. But they don't have enough numbers to matter. 

Here's the dirty secret about illiberal and authoritarian governments around the world - most people in them are doing basically fine. Most Russians aren't being directly repressed, at least in ways that they care about all that much. Most Chinese aren't either. It's easy to run a country like that when most people are fine, and they can just turn away from those who are suffering and rationalize it. Again, what we also see on these boards - where people would rather other people suffer because they cannot stomach voting for someone who makes them upset. 

 

[kissdbyfire]

36 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The minorities, the poor, LGBT, children - they'll be suffering, and they'll largely turn out quite a bit. But they don't have enough numbers to matter. 

• Oh... I was thinking more about women & PoC. Yes, all the others as well, but in terms of making a difference numerically and being groups that will suffer more under Trump.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

It is, and not just for americans but for everyone all over the world! 

But... I think if Mango is the nominee, he can't and won't win, despite all the borderline hysteria about Biden's low poll numbers. Because I do believe that most of the people who are pissed off at Biden now will swallow hard and vote for him in the end, because they'd likely be among the groups that will suffer the most if Mango wins and they know it (and I think Biden/Biden's campaing are counting on this to some degree). Then there are the independents and normie conservatives who can't stomach Trump... and here is actually where I think the danger is. If Trump loses and Nikki wins the nomination, a lot of this latter group would or could vote for her, no? I don't know, but whichever way I look at it I keep going back to Trump being the most dangerous candidate b/c of the risk of him winning the election, but he's also the candidate that will be the easiest to beat. 

In 2016 people believed it was impossible for Trump to beat Clinton… we had 4 years of Trump.  Encouraging the other side to nominate the worst candidate works until it explodes in our face like 2016.