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US Politics: Primary Schoolin'


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39 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Yes, do let's court the possibility of an eminently corrupt proto-fascist becoming president because Joe Biden doesn't properly inspire us. :rolleyes:

Honestly, the experience of Donald Trump the politician has made clear to me why nobody on Krypton heeded the obvious signs that their planet was about to crack in two.

Pretty much this, and it doesn't help that people don't pay attention in general. Plus too many people vote like they're the clueless person in front of you at a Chipotle who don't know what they want.  

Edited by Mr. Chatywin et al.
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45 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Honestly, the experience of Donald Trump the politician has made clear to me why nobody on Krypton heeded the obvious signs that their planet was about to crack in two.

Yeah that went from "unrealistic political situation to destroy a planet" to "duh, this is how ours will end". 

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If Trump becomes President, he's out for revenge. What many people dont seem to be fathoming is that his supporters are too, after 3 humiliations in the polls (2018/2020/2022), even seemingly 'normal' people are having dissonant views of reality. If anything, a vote for Biden is a vote for self-preservation in a sense. 

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11 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

I still can't believe 14% of registered Republicans turned out in Iowa. I expected low turnout, but that's disgraceful. 

Maybe that turnout was a vote against Trump.

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9 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

I still can't believe 14% of registered Republicans turned out in Iowa. I expected low turnout, but that's disgraceful. 

Ha, I was thinking about this. Can you explain why so many outlets are talking about it like it was a massive win for Mango? I get that he got something like 51% and Wrong DeS got ~ 21% and Nikki ~  19%, so I can see he won bigly in that sense, but it’s not people were super mobilised and energised to show up. I also get that the weather didn’t help. I also saw somewhere that he got roughly the same amount of votes he got when he lost to Cancun Ted… 

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8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Ha, I was thinking about this. Can you explain why so many outlets are talking about it like it was a massive win for Mango? I get that he got something like 51% and Wrong DeS got ~ 21% and Nikki ~  19%, so I can see he won bigly in that sense, but it’s not people were super mobilised and energised to show up. I also get that the weather didn’t help. I also saw somewhere that he got roughly the same amount of votes he got when he lost to Cancun Ted…

Trump would likely benefit from low voter turnout in the general election, so it could serve as a warning...

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Just now, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Trump would likely benefit from low voter turnout in the general election, so it could serve as a warning...

I don’t get it… I mean, there was low republican turnout in Iowa but in the general he’d benefit from low dem turnout, and I don’t quite see how the two connect? I’m probably missing something here.

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10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Ha, I was thinking about this. Can you explain why so many outlets are talking about it like it was a massive win for Mango? I get that he got something like 51% and Wrong DeS got ~ 21% and Nikki ~  19%, so I can see he won bigly in that sense, but it’s not people were super mobilised and energised to show up. I also get that the weather didn’t help. I also saw somewhere that he got roughly the same amount of votes he got when he lost to Cancun Ted… 

He got 10k more votes which isn't nothing, but I wouldn't blame the weather for the low turnout. It's probably more apathy and inevitability. Plus he got the large margin because this time around he had a halfway coherent campaign. 

NH will be interesting. Trump will win, but I'm curious to see how much Haley can close the gap. All the reporting I've seen suggests DeSantis is polling really badly there and not trying very hard. 

 

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2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t get it… I mean, there was low republican turnout in Iowa but in the general he’d benefit from low dem turnout, and I don’t quite see how the two connect? I’m probably missing something here.

There's a legit worry that the youth vote will be low and Trump is polling higher than expected with Black and Latino men. 

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11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t get it… I mean, there was low republican turnout in Iowa but in the general he’d benefit from low dem turnout, and I don’t quite see how the two connect? I’m probably missing something here.

I don't know who in Iowa stayed home and who went to caucus, so it might be a loose analogy. But in the general an unpopular candidate can benefit if reasonable people stay home. Just trying to highlight to certain people here that their action or inaction can have important effects...

Edited by Phylum of Alexandria
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15 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

There's a legit worry that the youth vote will be low and Trump is polling higher than expected with Black and Latino men. 

Right, but then we’re talking about low dem turnout in the general, right? 
I may be working under a misunderstanding… I thought only registered republicans could vote in republican primaries?

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3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Right, but then we’re talking about low dem turnout in the general, right? 
I may be working under a misunderstanding… I thought only registered republicans could vote in republican primaries?

You're correct, people are just speculating that if turn out was low in the Iowa Republican primary, that it will be in November in the general.  Be prepared to read all kinds of doom-mongering and "Vote Harder!" and "the most important election of our lives" type of sentiments here over the next ten months.  

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6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Right, but then we’re talking about low dem turnout in the general, right? 
I may be working under a misunderstanding… I thought only registered republicans could vote in republican primaries?

Every state has different rules (for example, this was a caucus, not a primary). Trump is, to speak in sports terms, a candidate with a high floor and a low ceiling. The worry is Biden may underperform in the general and that helps Trump. 

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9 minutes ago, Larry of the Lawn said:

You're correct, people are just speculating that if turn out was low in the Iowa Republican primary, that it will be in November in the general.  Be prepared to read all kinds of doom-mongering and "Vote Harder!" and "the most important election of our lives" type of sentiments here over the next ten months.  

Damn straight! #sorrynotsorry

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1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t get it… I mean, there was low republican turnout in Iowa but in the general he’d benefit from low dem turnout, and I don’t quite see how the two connect? I’m probably missing something here.

Honestly, it's because 'the Iowa caucus is largely meaningless and we can't read anything much into it' is not a line you can write many stories about. 

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Wasn’t the weather largely to blame for the low turnout? The daytime temperatures started around -15 which is -26C, rising to maybe -8, or -22C, but with the windchill the temperatures were as low as -30, -34C. Who the hell wants to go out and vote in those temperatures?

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Iowa was in a blizzard at the time, alot of snow and very cold.  My sister lives there and confirmed the weather really affected turnout.  She's a good Democrat and she happily stayed home.

Weather affects turnout, and it did this time. 

Edited by LongRider
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