ThinkerX Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 This seems bizarre if true... Russian war blogger dies in apparent suicide after revealing Moscow’s losses (msn.com) The Russians (?) I debate with about the war elsewhere tends to invert the casualties suffered by Ukraine and Russia. (Ukraine taking far more losses than Russia). They also tend to regard NATO as a sort of 'Mask' for the US, not an actual alliance. The Finns were termed 'bootlickers' for joining NATO. I got termed a 'vomit eater' for expressing skepticism about the citizens of Adviika (sp?) voluntarily cheering the Russian 'liberators.' (I said the response seemed unlikely given that it was Russian artillery shells that had turned most of the town into rubble and no doubt killed many of the citizenry.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Avdiivka was largely evacuated a decade ago. There were some hardcore hold-outs living among the ruins, but the idea that any more than a few hundred (at best) were left living there when the Ukrainians withdrew is beyond credulity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makk Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 There are claims that Ukraine has shot down a second A50. Wild if true, Russia has like 5 or 6 of them. wiedzma, DireWolfSpirit and Ser Scot A Ellison 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, Makk said: There are claims that Ukraine has shot down a second A50. Wild if true, Russia has like 5 or 6 of them. They certainly are getting their money's worth, playing peekaboo with those Patriot missile systems. Tongue Stuck to Wall and wiedzma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I'm starting to think those unconfirmed stories that Ukraine has bootstrapped something to increase Patriot's range by 10-15% have something to them. Either that or the Russians are being really stupid with putting irreplaceable assets so close to their interdiction range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 3 hours ago, Werthead said: I'm starting to think those unconfirmed stories that Ukraine has bootstrapped something to increase Patriot's range by 10-15% have something to them. Either that or the Russians are being really stupid with putting irreplaceable assets so close to their interdiction range. Why not both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 24 Author Share Posted February 24 Per Ukraine the a50 was downed by a measly s200. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/23/7443442/ That is not a great look for russia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loge Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 The Russians are obviously getting more reckless. Putin's reelection is less than four weeks away and he wants to see some success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Given that the war is effectively a stalemate at present, Putin may use the election as a platform of sorts to order a full general mobilization, not merely against Ukraine, but Western (NATO) states as well. Actually attacking the likes of Finland or the Baltic States, though, would be suicidally idiotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Today it is two years that Putin started his invasion of Ukraine. According to Nepalese opposition parties and western media, between 14000 and 15000 Nepalese citizens have been hired as mercenaries for Russia. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd/index.html Wikipedia lists 14 confirmed killed Nepalese soldiers, which is less than South Ossetia (16), Kyrgyztan (26), Moldova (28), Tajikistan (60), Uzbekistan (61), with Abkhazia (11) and Syria (9) not that much lower. This makes me wonder if the amount of mercenaries from these countries is somewhat similar to Nepals. I don't think that Russia is running out of "meat" anytime soon, specialists, pilots and high ranking officers will become a problem though (if they are not already). On a more "light" note: cats play a decisive role in the trenches apparently: both to reduce the amount of rats(which destroy food as well as electronics) and other rodents but also as comfort animals for the soldiers. There is even a tomcat called Syrsky, like the new commander of the Ukrainian military. Czech republic tries to get funding to buy 800000 artillery shells for immediate delivery to Ukraine .https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-23/czechs-seek-international-funding-for-ukraine-ammunition-deal DireWolfSpirit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 2 hours ago, ThinkerX said: Given that the war is effectively a stalemate at present, Putin may use the election as a platform of sorts to order a full general mobilization, not merely against Ukraine, but Western (NATO) states as well. Actually attacking the likes of Finland or the Baltic States, though, would be suicidally idiotic. Few things there. Right now Russia is back in the driver's seat regarding this war. They're chipping away at Ukrainian defenses, mainly because they're short on ammo. So thanks to Republicans holding up military aid Russia is making progress. Full mobilization is presumably not on the menu. Part of why his regime is stable is, that he has managed to keep the war out of everyday life for a lot of Russians. There's some sorta Faustian bargain between the Putin regime, and the Russian public. You'll let me rule, I will keep everyday corruption on an acceptable level, I'll keep you fed and I won't bother you with politics. Which was a sweet deal in 1990s Russia for most people. So you have pretty sedated public. That in combination with the ability to crackdown hard on dissent, has made life fairly easy for Putin. Mobilization, with Russians being ordered to fight and die in vast numbers was and is not part of the deal. So a general mobilization is for most parts out of the question. The ultra nationalist voices like Girkin (who was under arrest the last time I checked) willing to rock the proverbial boat do not have the sway with Putin. To paraphrase Daniil Dubov, (political) changes in Russia are always the result of a revolution. Putin seems to agree with that and is not willing to tempt fate. He is still banking on western support folding. He could then rebuild his forces after the conquest of Ukraine. That's apparently the game plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I have heard from one expert that to reduce foreign aid to Ukraine even further Putin could launch an attack on Nato territory as a diversion. In such a scenario all aid would be diverted to the attacked country, leaving Ukraine with even less, so that they can be steamrolled by Russia. I don't think that this is a reasonable strategy because it would give Nato the pretext to unleash its full military machine against russia, which is a fight that russia can only lose (unless it uses nukes, then both lose). The Ukraine war & the western sanctions together have reshuffled the russian economy, while they have been overall bad for Russia (not too bad though!) the effects are very different depending on the region. While Moscow and St Petersburg are on the losing side, rural Russia is actually profiting from the war (at least short term). The Military-industrial complex is often located outside of the two big centers and is now working 24/7 to produce for the war effort, giving rural russians job opportunities they didn't have before. The salaries paid to the Soldiers and in case of death to the relatives gives them a much needed boost in purchase power (most soldiers coming from rural regions). The Construction business has also got new lucrative contracts to (re)build housing, transport infrastructure and military structures in Ukraine itself as well as its surrounding regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 This war time economy has also insulated Russia a bit more from Western sanctions. There are however two questions 1. Sustainability. How long can Russia keep this up, and rural Russia is also where the bulk of the conscripts are from. So how sustainable is it longterm 2. Related to 1. What happens post war. Russia can't keep producing military gear without a purpose ad infinity. So without the war in Ukraine the demand for military equipment will drop eventually. That's when the sanctions would be bite with a vengeance, if they aren't lifted. If the sanctions were to be lifted post war, there'd be some pain getting back to a peace time economy, but if the sanctions stay in place Russia would be pretty isolated. Then you also have the conscripts coming home (in a more or less functional form) looking for jobs outside the military. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 I wonder if Russia is on the trajectory of becoming a larger version of North Korea. Everything just being poured into the military etc., even if no war is actually happening (i am talking in an eventual post war Russia). Or if the russians finally step up once it becomes clear to even the last guy that they will no longer have their creature comforts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Luxury brands are back in Russia (despite their big statements of pulling out of the Russian market). Their shipping tours take a detour. But alas, Profits > Morals (earth shattering revelation, I know). So you can buy your new Ferari, or Gucci bag in Moscow, if you have the cash. Tears of Lys and wiedzma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Scrolling through Reddit, I'm not sure this is because it's the two years anniversary of the war, but the number of Ukrainian obituaries is particularly thick at the moment. It's a very subjective thing, I know, but for me this is always a good indicator for how good or bad things are. For example I did note it was this bleak last year before the American cluster munitions came and turned things around. So... I fear this is a signs for the ammunition shortage and Russia still pressing their attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) Zelensky has provided an updated figure for Ukrainian KIAs in the war: 31,000. That seems surprisingly low, with previous estimates of 70,000 before last summer's offensive rising to around 100,000 now. If the 31,000 figure is correct, that suggests Ukraine has had much greater success in extracting wounded soldiers than previously thought. Zelensky notably refused to give the figure of injured and non-combat-capable troops, suggesting that figure is vastly higher. This figure is more in line with online and offline reporting of Ukrainian deaths in newspapers, on social media, funeral and memorial services held etc; these figures had been updated to around 42,000 just last month. Whilst this sounds "positive", at least in the sense that Ukrainian losses may be half or even less what was previously reported, the failure to address injured and permanently unable to fight suggests that figure might be uncomfortably high; for future military operations, soldiers permanently removed from the fighting pool are still a net loss even if they have not been killed outright. Russians KIA are running at 120,000 at the lower end of estimates and around 200,000 at the higher end, with total Russian casualties (including no-longer-combat-capable) running from 330,000 to 410,000. On the KIA ratio Russia seems to be running at a minimum of a 3:1 loss ratio to Ukraine, rising to a possible 5:1. Edited February 25 by Werthead Arakasi and wiedzma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3CityApache Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 18 hours ago, Werthead said: Zelensky has provided an updated figure for Ukrainian KIAs in the war: 31,000. That seems surprisingly low, with previous estimates of 70,000 before last summer's offensive rising to around 100,000 now. If the 31,000 figure is correct, that suggests Ukraine has had much greater success in extracting wounded soldiers than previously thought. Zelensky notably refused to give the figure of injured and non-combat-capable troops, suggesting that figure is vastly higher. This figure is more in line with online and offline reporting of Ukrainian deaths in newspapers, on social media, funeral and memorial services held etc; these figures had been updated to around 42,000 just last month. Whilst this sounds "positive", at least in the sense that Ukrainian losses may be half or even less what was previously reported, the failure to address injured and permanently unable to fight suggests that figure might be uncomfortably high; for future military operations, soldiers permanently removed from the fighting pool are still a net loss even if they have not been killed outright. Russians KIA are running at 120,000 at the lower end of estimates and around 200,000 at the higher end, with total Russian casualties (including no-longer-combat-capable) running from 330,000 to 410,000. On the KIA ratio Russia seems to be running at a minimum of a 3:1 loss ratio to Ukraine, rising to a possible 5:1. An important caveat is that Zelensky's figure doesn't include missing soldiers or POWs, only those who are officially KIA. In this war, MIA is a major percentage of total casualties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Interesting one for those who missed it. Going back to the Taurus (non-) debate from the previous pages. Scholz clarified, there'd be no Taurus deliveries. Reasons as described, they could be used to hit targets inside Russia, making Germany party in this war. Our Smurf chancellor expressed his irritation over the way this decission was/is covered, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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