US Politics: Losing Appeals

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Search your feelings.  You know it to be true

I’m on the “dark side” because I say supporting the guy convicted of sexual assault, who says he wants to be a dictator, who says he will not support our NATO allies if they suffer an invasion is a poor choice, and because I believe you are smart enough to see how you are lying to yourself… right…

 

Edited March 21 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[The Anti-Targ]

I'm all for dunking on pharma as being the unhealth sector since they rely on people being sick to make huge profits. May the seven save them from people everywhere finding out how to live a healthier life. But not to worry capitalism is here to keep large populations poor, undernourished, badly housed and under-educated, and to keep the slightly less poor in mind and soul destroying jobs. There will always be a market for the things they make.

But kooks offering snake oil as miracle cures are just as bad.

Give humans healthy food, healthy homes and quality education and they can take it from there.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m on the “dark side” because I say supporting the guy convicted of sexual assault, who says he wants to be a dictator, who says he will not support our NATO allies if they suffer an invasion is a poor choice, and because I believe you are smart enough to see how you are lying to yourself… right…

You're on the dark side because you want politics to be serious and boring, rather than apocalyptic LARPing for bored, lonely people.

[Zorral]

NEW YORK — New York Attorney General Letitia James on Wednesday urged an appeals court not to believe Donald Trump’s recent assertion that he is unable to secure a bond for more than $450 million to satisfy the civil business-fraud judgment against him.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/20/trump-bond-letitia-james-fraud-new-york/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Bankruptcy is one way out of Trump’s financial jam. He doesn’t want to take it.
People close to the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee say he is not considering bankruptcy, even though it could ease his immediate cash crunch

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/20/trump-bond-bankruptcy/

Quote

 

.... But Trump is not considering that approach, partially out of concern that it could damage his campaign to recapture the White House from President Biden in November, according to four people close to the former president, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions about Trump’s finances. Even though bankruptcy could alleviate his immediate cash crunch, it also carries risks for a candidate who has marketed himself as a winning businessman — and whose greatest appeal to voters, some advisers say, is his financial success.

A bankruptcy filing by Trump personally or by one of his companies could delay for months or years the requirement that he pay the judgment of nearly half a billion dollars, which with interest is growing by more than $100,000 a day. A federal judge would be charged with the time-consuming task of determining how and when each of his creditors, including the state, would be paid. In the meantime, Trump could focus on his campaign and not the debt.

Trump does not have the cash to secure a bond that would delay enforcement of the $464 million judgment while he appeals, his lawyers say. No bonding company will accept real estate — which accounts for most of Trump’s wealth — as collateral. If no bond is posted by Monday, New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) could move to seize his assets, including bank accounts or properties such as Trump’s Manhattan office tower at 40 Wall Street.

“He’d rather have Letitia James show up with the sheriff at 40 Wall and make a huge stink about it than say he’s bankrupt,” one of the people close to Trump said. “He thinks about what is going to play politically well for him. Bankruptcy doesn’t play well for him, but having her try to take his properties might.”

Yet filing for bankruptcy is a maneuver Trump has used before — six times, when extricating himself from a tumultuous foray into the Atlantic City casino business decades ago. On the campaign trail, Trump in years past explained away those corporate bankruptcies, saying he used a tool many savvy investors have employed — and noting that he never had to file personally.

Were he to file for bankruptcy now, he probably would not have to “pay anything until after the bankruptcy, and that will take several years because of the complexity,” bankruptcy attorney Avi Moshenberg said. However, Moshenberg said, interest would probably continue to accrue during the bankruptcy.

A Trump spokesman said the plan is to continue fighting in court. In a filing Monday, Trump’s lawyers asked a panel of appeals court judges to waive the bond requirement. The appeals panel has yet to rule. ....

 

 

Edited March 21 by Zorral

[Zorral]

Among the reasons people believe social media needs some sort of regulation:

Women are getting off birth control amid misinformation explosion

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/03/21/stopping-birth-control-misinformation/

Quote

 

Search for birth control on TikTok or Instagram and a cascade of misleading videos vilifying hormonal contraception appear: Young women blaming their weight gain on the pill. Right-wing commentators claiming that some birth control can lead to infertility. Testimonials complaining of depression and anxiety.

Instead, many social media influencers recommend “natural” alternatives, such as timing sex to menstrual cycles — a less effective birth-control method that doctors warn could result in unwanted pregnancies in a country where abortion is now banned or restricted in nearly half the states.

Physicians say they’re seeing an explosion of birth-control misinformation online targeting a vulnerable demographic: people in their teens and early 20s who are more likely to believe what they see on their phones because of algorithms that feed them a stream of videos reinforcing messages often divorced from scientific evidence. While doctors say hormonal contraception — which includes birth-control pills and intrauterine devices (IUDs) — is safe and effective, they worry the profession’s long-standing lack of transparency about some of the serious but rare side effects has left many patients seeking information from unqualified online communities. ....

 

Yet, this same demographic is likely without qualms about dosing themselves with miracle weight loss drugs, about which less is known/seen/experienced in terms of long term effects upon an individual's health. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

You're on the dark side because you want politics to be serious and boring, rather than apocalyptic LARPing for bored, lonely people.

Politics patterning after pro-wrestling is a terrible, terrible thing.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Politics patterning after pro-wrestling is a terrible, terrible thing.

Decadence, plain and simple.

Edited March 21 by Phylum of Alexandria

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Politics patterning after pro-wrestling is a terrible, terrible thing.

I. Can't. Resist.

 

[DMC]

29 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Politics patterning after pro-wrestling is a terrible, terrible thing.

First of all, it's sports entertainment.  Second of all, there's a direction of causality/endogeneity issue here.  Pro-wrestling reflects society.  Abe Lincoln was, of course, an outstanding sports entertainer!  

[mormont]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

First of all, it's sports entertainment.  Second of all, there's a direction of causality/endogeneity issue here.  Pro-wrestling reflects society.  Abe Lincoln was, of course, an outstanding sports entertainer!  

https://www.ryandunlavey.com/comics/action-presidents

[Zorral]

So tell us again Rumperista-in-Chief why you can't pay your 1/2 bil bond.

Donald Trump to make $3bn if shareholders back plan to float Trump Media
Ex-US president planning to list Trump Media & Technology Group if merger with special purpose acquisition company goes ahead

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan

[Maithanet]

17 hours ago, DMC said:

Of course it's going to tighten up but the comparisons to Bayh and Bredesen in particular are faulty.  Bayh was a former governor, sure, but he also was a two-term Senator afterwards who had retired four years earlier when he ran decided to run again.  Bredesen had been out of office for eight years that in the meantime Tennessee became significantly more conservative.

Hogan, meanwhile, just left office last year and his ideological proximity is much closer to Maryland's median voter -- not to mention having appeal as one of the most high-profile anti-Trump Republicans.  At the least, Hogan promises to be much more competitive than any of the above three - all of whom lost by double digits.

I think the the comparison to Bullock is a very strong one.  He was a popular governor who had branded himself as very centrist.  He won his second term in a bad year for Democrats (2016) by 4 points, 25 points better than Clinton.  He led basically all the polls in April-June 2020.  But he eventually lost by 10 in a state Trump won by 17. 

If Maryland were as blue as Montana is red, I would be concerned, because Hogan does have a strong brand.  But Maryland has twice the political lean of Montana.  Maryland is not going to vote to hand power to Mitch McConnell (and his replacement).  I actually expect Hogan to lose by ~10, just like Bullock did. 

[Martell Spy]

House Democrats are lending the GOP speaker a hand — and they don’t mind
They see Mike Johnson’s dependence on them to pass major legislation as a point of leverage that they can use to their advantage.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/mike-johnson-democrats-help-congress-00148129

Quote

 

At times, Johnson is winning more of their votes on big bills than he is Republican ones. But many Democrats are fine with it — because they see Johnson’s dependence on them as a point of leverage that has helped them extract victories they wouldn’t have otherwise snagged.

“When we’re winning, why would we worry about them flailing?” said Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), a Progressive Caucus chair emeritus. Referring to the funding deal that’s set to pass this week, he added that “now we’re able to get this across the finish line largely intact, with very little damage, given we’re not in charge. That’s like a double win, so I’m happy.”

Saving Johnson rather than allowing Republicans to stew in their own mess — as they did last fall, when the GOP struggled to replace its fired speaker for weeks — could prove counterproductive to Democrats’ goal of taking back the House. Even so, interviews with a dozen Democratic lawmakers from all ideological corners of the caucus reinforced that for now, the party doesn’t mind the help it’s giving Johnson.

Democrats’ willingness to lend the speaker a hand may have an expiration date, however. If Johnson puts up standalone national security funding bills using the same fast-track gambit that he’s used in the past to lean on Democratic votes, which he’s told POLITICO that he is considering, he is likely to find less reliable backup across the aisle — particularly from progressives who are leery of unrestricted aid to Israel.

And just because Democrats are abetting Johnson’s end-runs around his obstreperous right flank by supporting bills under so-called suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority of the House, that doesn’t mean they like the message it sends about government dysfunction.

 

 

[TrackerNeil]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Politics patterning after pro-wrestling is a terrible, terrible thing.

I think doomcrying about politics makes people feel wise, like if the worst happens, well, they've already put a down-payment on disappointment. Disappointment doesn't work that way. When you start mourning early, you just mourn longer.

[Zorral]

JURISPRUDENCE
The Fight Against Birth Control Is Already Here
Conservatives are using old methods to start the battle against contraceptives.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/03/fight-against-birth-control-strategy.html?

Quote

 

Ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, progressive commentators have worried about whether the right to contraception will be in jeopardy next. Republicans largely dismiss these arguments as political fearmongering: There is no mass movement against contraception equivalent to the anti-abortion movement, they argue, and Republicans in some states have actually pushed expanded access to contraception.

But the concerns about birth control’s fate don’t seem so far-fetched anymore. Last week, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals handed a major victory to Jonathan Mitchell, the former Texas solicitor general who has masterminded many of the key post-Dobbs anti-abortion strategies, in a case on birth control that offers a chilling sign of things to come. As I write with Naomi Cahn and Maxine Eichner in an article forthcoming in the Michigan Law Review, conservatives have used arguments about parental rights to attack actions pertaining to school programs on race, sexuality, and gender identity—and to limit travel for abortion. Now, Mitchell is hoping to use a similar strategy to start undermining access to contraception. ....

 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

8 hours ago, DMC said:

First of all, it's sports entertainment.  Second of all, there's a direction of causality/endogeneity issue here.  Pro-wrestling reflects society.  Abe Lincoln was, of course, an outstanding sports entertainer!  

And I thought Ty was the weird one with his Jesse Ventura for Prez stuff

Local patriotism aside, I didn't expect you to be Hulk Hogan for President...

[Zorral]

Tell us what we don't already know.

RNC Already Helping Raise Money For Trump’s Legal Bills, Despite Campaign's Claims
An invitation to an April fundraiser lists Trump’s Save America committee, which has been paying his various lawyers, as a recipient of donor money.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rnc-raising-money-trump-legal-bills_n_65fc8ddce4b01d7420ad3ba5

Quote

 

WASHINGTON — Despite previous claims that the Republican National Committee would not be paying Donald Trump’s various legal bills, an invitation to a Palm Beach, Florida fundraiser next month shows that the Save America committee Trump has been using for that purpose will, in fact, be a recipient of donor money.

The fundraiser for a joint committee called “Trump 47” is to be held on April 6, according to an invitation obtained by HuffPost, with a “chairman” level donation set at $814,600 per person, and a “host” level at $250,000.

A Tuesday filing with the Federal Election Commission states that Trump 47 raises money for the Trump campaign, as well as Save America, the Republican National Committee and 40 state-level Republican committees. ....

 

 

[DMC]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I think the the comparison to Bullock is a very strong one.  He was a popular governor who had branded himself as very centrist.  He won his second term in a bad year for Democrats (2016) by 4 points, 25 points better than Clinton.

The glaringly obvious difference is Bullock was running against an incumbent.  An incumbent that had already won two statewide elections, and was generally just as popular as Bullock.  Whereas Hogan will be running against either a three-term Congressman or a PG County Official.  Further, while Bullock won reelection by 4 points in a tough cycle in 2016, aye, Hogan won reelection by 11 points in an incredibly tough cycle for the GOP in 2018.

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

He led basically all the polls in April-June 2020.  But he eventually lost by 10 in a state Trump won by 17. 

I mean, I guess?  There were five polls between March and early July.  The first one, Bullock and Daines were tied.  Three of the others, Bullock led by 2-4 points, within the margin of error.  The fifth one, Bullock led by seven.  Never did he lead by double digits.  Which, again, speaks to the differences in quality of competition.

And that competition should be emphasized.  I think you're a little too obsessed with partisan lean based on presidential results and equating this to the ideological lean of the state.  The two are not the same.  Maryland may be overwhelmingly Democratic, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's overwhelmingly liberal/leftist. 

Ben Cardin, the guy they're replacing, was fairly moderate.  So, too, is Chris Van Hollen.  And so, too, is David Trone, who appears to be the favorite in the Democratic primary.  Now, that may be due to the fact Trone founded and owns Total Wine and therefore has already outspent Angela Alsobrooks about 8 to 1, but you'd think that'd be mitigated by Alsobrooks having the endorsement of Van Hollen, and Wes Moore, and most of the Maryland Democratic establishment. 

But, it's not.  Or at least thus far does not appear to be.  And in that case, the ideological differences between David Trone and Larry Hogan are fairly minimal.  Could Marylanders vote against Hogan simply because they don't want the GOP to gain the majority?  Of course!  That's why I posted the poll to begin with!

Finally, I really don't like this writing off of any statewide contests based simply based on partisan lean.  If that's all we're looking at, we might as well have AI write political analysis.  There is so much more to these races than just looking at the last presidential cycle.  Would Hogan winning be very much against the grain?  Obviously.  But that type of shit happens every cycle, even with ridonculous polarization.  And, no, it would not be "unprecedented."

[DMC]

45 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

And I thought Ty was the weird one with his Jesse Ventura for Prez stuff

Local patriotism aside, I didn't expect you to be Hulk Hogan for President...

For a guy that incessantly makes "jokes," you apparently have a hard time sniffing out satire.

[Martell Spy]

New York Attorney General takes initial step to prepare to seize Trump assets

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/21/politics/trump-calls-ny-attorney-generals-bond-suggestions-impractical-and-unjust/index.html

Quote

 

The New York attorney general’s office has filed judgments in Westchester County, the first indication that the state is preparing to try to seize Donald Trump’s golf course and private estate north of Manhattan, known as Seven Springs.

State lawyers entered the judgments with the clerk’s office in Westchester County on March 6, just one week after Judge Arthur Engoron made official his $464 million decision against Trump, his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, and the Trump Organization.

The decision against Trump and the difficulty the former president is having securing a bond while he appeals the verdict strikes directly at Trump’s image as a billionaire as he attempts to raise more cash for both his legal bills and third run for the White House.

Entering a judgment would be the first step a creditor would take to attempt to recover property. Additional steps, such as putting liens on assets or moving to foreclose on properties, or taking other actions in court would follow, if the asset is going to be seized.