Werthead

Romania in serious talks on sending Ukraine a Patriot missile battery. Ukraine has hit a major fuel storage depot in Luhansk Oblast, apparently using ATACMS. A large chunk of the facility seems to be ablaze. Rumours on Putin's new cabinet are swirling, with Sergey Sobyanin apparently favourite for Prime Minister. Lavrov is rumoured to be out after twenty years, with deputy PM Aleksandr Novak favourite to replace him. The EU has apparently agreed to channel proceeds of the profits and interest from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine, amounting to $3 billion almost immediately.

Kadyrov - for some reason - has set the Russian military the target of capturing Kharkiv and Odesa within one month. This seems a tad ambitious. Some responses that Kadyrov should set himself the target of not making any more videos to prove his health which instead seem to suggest he's teetering at death's door.

Arkane Austin also made Prey, which is an all-timer, and did about half the work on Dishonored 1. They had chops. Arkane Lyon have been spared though, and they seem to be the "main Arkane" that people think of (they did Dishonored 2, Death of the Outsider and Deathloop solo, and before Dishonored 1 were the only Arkane, so also did Dark Messiah of Might & Magic and Arx Fatalis). Damn:

It looks like a Ukrainian sea drone armed with anti-aircraft missiles was responsible for a Russian helicopter that disappeared over the Black Sea a couple of weeks back. The Russians claimed it was an accident. A Russian Su-34 has been destroyed, the first in a few weeks. Unclear if it was shot down, involved in friendly fire or an accident. France has come up with an interesting approach of going around partner countries it has sold SCALP (Storm Shadow) missiles to but are now out-of-life, and bringing them back to France for reconditioning before going to Ukraine. In this manner, multiple dozens of SCALPs have been sent to Ukraine without touching French strategic stocks. Britain is producing new Storm Shadows, unclear if France is building new SCALPs (though you'd assume so).

Jolly. There has been an uptick in attacks on Russian soldiers by Ukrainian personnel who have been pressganged into Russian service. Yuri Galushko, a 60-year-old resident of Donetsk, was forced to serve in the DPR military. After a Russian strike on Kharkiv caused his mother to have a stroke, he flipped out, shot dead six Russian servicemen and fled the scene. Some reports he made it to Ukrainian lines. A high-speed Russian patrol boat has been destroyed by a drone in Crimea. Russian sources are also claiming that Ukraine is trialling an "anti-air drone," larger Baba Yaga-derivations which are equipped with 2-4 anti-aircraft missiles which are harder to detect and could engage Russian aircraft from inside Russian territory or from the Black Sea. A cluster of Iskander launchers has also been destroyed by ATACMS fire in Crimea. Confirmation that Ukraine has received a ton of new equipment in the last week, including AA missiles, 155mm artillery shells and Patriot missiles.

McLaren had a big upgrade package this weekend and it seemed to pay off for both drivers (Piastri were obviously knocked out of contention by on-track action). Brown is downplaying it, saying it was a combo of the new upgrades and also the low-downforce surface, and it'd be business as usual next time, but it'll be interesting to see what happens. McLaren keep having great moments, they now just need consistency.

He cancelled his trip to South Africa when they made it clear they'd have to arrest him as they are members. Of the members respecting the Rome Statute, 33 are in Africa, 19 are in the Asia-Pacific and 28 are from Latin America and the Caribbean. 124 countries and international entities are members of the ICC, which is considerably more than half the countries in the world.

Almost there! The guy they hired to do the voiceover for the trailers is brilliant, even if he's starting to ham it up a little bit ("Skybliiiiiiivion!"). Also, the return of Oblivion's lockpicking, only it's now less shit. And they've merged Oblivion's stat system with Skyrim's levelling system, which is impressive.

Jordan seems to be emerging from this crisis with some serious clout. It criticised the hell out of Hamas for its initial attack, has been fiercely critical of Israel's response, but then jumped in to defend Israel successfully and then told Iran to go fuck itself when Iran threatened it (remarkable given the rather severe power disparity between the two countries). I get the impression that Jordan has impressed its Arab allies, Israel and the west, whilst also not deviating on its core principle of opposition to the killing of innocents.

It looks like there is momentum behind the latest round of discussions. Hamas is pushing for the proposed ceasefire to be permanent and it looks like the US, Egypt, Jordan and others are backing that idea. Israel is resistant, still planning its operation in Rafah, but its opposition may be wilting in the face of international pressure.

Interesting economic analysis that Russia's current economic sort-of boom is being driven by the current military situation. Should the war end, Russia's economy might see a contraction of seismic proportions. Ukraine would have a similar risk, but is better placed to endure it, with likely vast resources being made available to help it rebuild after the war. Russia likely will not have that advantage. As a result, it may be economically advantageous to Russia to continue the war for as long as possible. Other analyses are saying the war boom effect is temporary, and at ~3-4 years into the conflict (18 months to two years from now) Russia's economic expansion from massive military spending will run out of steam and the contraction will occur anyway. There is some arguing about that. Meanwhile, the US and the G7 are working on a plan to use profits and interest from frozen Russian assets to generate additional cash for Ukraine. The idea is that this would generate around $50 billion this year and around $150 billion by in total by the end of 2025. This might mitigate the problems of generating a new US aid bill in 2025, regardless of who's in the White House, and would leave the assets themselves intact, for possible return to Russia after the end of hostilities (a possible incentive for ending the conflict). As for China, it's extremely clear that Xi had a roadmap that included an invasion of Taiwan in or around 2027 (the 80th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army, under its original guise) if possible, but in the early 2030s if not. That roadmap seems to have been disrupted by China's economic woes, unexpectedly robust rearming by the US and its allies (partially caused by Russia) and the economic "decoupling" by former investors that has happened much faster than China ever believed possible, along with much more robust statements that the US will defend Taiwan, meaning a direct Chinese-US war which, right now and probably still in 2027, China might have no better than a 1-in-3 chance of winning. China seems to be dealing with this by cooling the tensions and heat, pivoting to the South China Sea controversy (where China may hope to provoke a military intervention by the US or its allies so China can sell any response as justified self-defence) and engaging in longer-term planning. China may still decide to invade Taiwan in 2027 or even sooner if it decides the situation is ripe, but it sees to be less keen now than two years ago or so. That does put its relationship with Russia in an interesting place: it will continue to milk Russia for all its worth but the chances of China putting itself out there on Russia's behalf seems to have reduced significantly, and western leaders are apparently wooing Xi both behind the scenes and in public, congratulating him on his diplomacy with Russia that apparently dissuaded Putin from using nuclear weapons (although the US believes it was actually a very direct discussion between the head of the CIA and the head of the FSB in Türkiye last year where he said that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would trigger a direct US military intervention in the war that really dissuaded them, but still, PR), and suggesting that Xi follow through on his previous discussions about Ukraine's territorial integrity to broker a peace deal with Putin. That flatters Xi's not-inconsiderable ego, even if he is aware of that.

Britain's youngest Prime Minister was William Pitt the Younger, who was 24 when he assumed office (and was 21 when elected to the Commons). He held the office for longer than anyone bar Robert Walpole, and is generally accounted one of Britain's greatest Prime Ministers (for various values of "greatness"), steering the country through the aftermath of the American War of Independence and French Revolution, the spread of revolutionary fervour to Britain, various complications with Ireland and India, and then both the Revolutionary and start of the Napoleonic Wars. Some of that came later, but his first term was basically rushing around putting out fires in Ireland, India, France and cementing relations with the US having just been at war with them, and he was generally successful in these areas despite inexperience. Edward IV became King at 18 and almost ended the Wars of the Roses for good except for his brothers both losing the plot and allowing the ultimate Tudor victory later on. He showed some issues with being young and impulsive but also showed significant political canniness, and was a superior general despite his great youth. Oddly, he seemed to make worse decisions the older he got; if he'd been king when he was older, it's possible he'd have been a far less successful one. And obviously that's people with ultimate power, not being an councillor on a single seat in a very minor part of the country. The youngest MP in UK history is Christopher Monck, who was elected MP for Devon in 1667 at the age of 13; due to a quirk in the law he could be elected but not take his seat until eight years later, at 21. The age of candidacy for being a MP was reduced to 18 in 2006, but so far we've only had one MP below 21. We also regularly entrust people at 18 or younger in roles including soldiers, mothers and fathers, drivers (sometimes of Formula One cars going at 200mph), pilots, landlords, business managers, writers, artists and most other jobs under the sun. Some are spectacularly shit at those things, but some are exceptionally good at them. One might also argue that youth and inexperience may be a boon if it means enthusiasm and ability to get things done has not been beaten down by cynicism.

Is this the one which looks like a cute cartoon game but the combat is straight-up Dark Souls?

At 18 (1997) I'd been studying Russia and American politics and Anglo-Irish history for two years solid, so in those areas I was probably better-informed and up to date then 90% of the population. That was also probably when my absolute mastery of Middle-earth lore was its peak. Outside of those areas it'd have been more of a mixed bag. That said, I once had a long conversation with a family member (then in his fifties) explaining with references how the value of the house he bought in 1975 had quintupled outside of interest, which is why I couldn't afford to buy a similar house at the same time he did, and he didn't get it (or rather he refused to get it, because it destroyed his argument about "feckless youth"). There are a lot of 18-year-old fucking idiots around, but a lot of 18-year-olds who are reasonably well-educated and capable, and a lot of 38 or 58-year-olds around who you wouldn't trust to open a can of beans which was already open without fatally injuring themselves.

Frostpunk.