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Jace, Basilissa

U.S. Politics: Dirt From Ukrainians, Bombs for Iranians, Shut Down Your Brainiums...

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As an (Australian) outsider looking in, I can understand why Pelosi and the old guard Dems don't want to impeach Trump. I imagine most of them have long memories of how the Clinton impeachment efforts went and how that completely backfired on the Republicans. No Republicans are going to back it, and all it will do is activate and fire up Trump's base into a massive frenzy.

There's no sense in poking the bear when you know for a fact you won't be able to finish it off (actually get him convicted). Those who are pushing for impeachment don't have an endgame or exit strategy, and we all know how Gingrich's reasoning of "because we can" played out.

I think a less satisfying but more achievable strategy would be to continue the investigations around criminality and start to push a Netanyahu-style line where it's obvious Trump's only hope of not going to jail is to win the Presidency. Trump and his supporters revel in anything resembling a culture war and in targeting progressive Democrat policies, and painting him as a racist misogynist full of mean-spiritedness amazingly just doesn't seem to stick. But a consistent and overwhelming case of personal criminality, bribery and corruption might help if they can weave it into a cohesive narrative.

 

Edited by Jeor

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8 hours ago, Jeor said:

As an (Australian) outsider looking in, I can understand why Pelosi and the old guard Dems don't want to impeach Trump. I imagine most of them have long memories of how the Clinton impeachment efforts went and how that completely backfired on the Republicans. No Republicans are going to back it, and all it will do is activate and fire up Trump's base into a massive frenzy.

I think this not nonsense, but simply wrong.

a.) Yes, the old guard remembers the Clinton impeachment, however there the narrative was different (at least from what I can remember). Clinton was a fairly popular President at the time, who was the victim of a witchhunt over some failings at his private life - basically the Republicans going nuts over a blowjob in the oval office; the narrative about it being him lieing to congress did not win out. With the orange thing, I don't think the counter narrative to Democrats going after an obviously corrupt/crooked President will prevail - at least outside Fox News.

b.) On the other hand, house Democrats just look patheticly weak and pathetic for basically hand wringing and not doing much. Oh yeah, the Fox News "witch hunt" is still going strong, and the Democrats just huffing and puffing and spending tax payer money on investigation without consequences. So his minions are already in a frenzy.

8 hours ago, Jeor said:

There's no sense in poking the bear when you know for a fact you won't be able to finish it off (actually get him convicted). Those who are pushing for impeachment don't have an endgame or exit strategy, and we all know how Gingrich's reasoning of "because we can" played out. 

I disagree. First it shows the Democrats are actually picking up the fight, and are not just content with getting pushed around by a lawless administration. Again, this dithering looks pitiful. Also, yes, the Senate will probably not convict, however this way the Republican senators are at least on record. And that might be a real albatross for them in purple states, where Trump is not universally liked. With an impeachment they are at least put to the test. Trump supporters alone won't (hopefully) be enough in a statewide election.

 

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4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think this not nonsense, but simply wrong.

a.) Yes, the old guard remembers the Clinton impeachment, however there the narrative was different (at least from what I can remember). Clinton was a fairly popular President at the time, who was the victim of a witchhunt over some failings at his private life - basically the Republicans going nuts over a blowjob in the oval office; the narrative about it being him lieing to congress did not win out. With the orange thing, I don't think the counter narrative to Democrats going after an obviously corrupt/crooked President will prevail - at least outside Fox News.

b.) On the other hand, house Democrats just look patheticly weak and pathetic for basically hand wringing and not doing much. Oh yeah, the Fox News "witch hunt" is still going strong, and the Democrats just huffing and puffing and spending tax payer money on investigation without consequences. So his minions are already in a frenzy.

I disagree. First it shows the Democrats are actually picking up the fight, and are not just content with getting pushed around by a lawless administration. Again, this dithering looks pitiful. Also, yes, the Senate will probably not convict, however this way the Republican senators are at least on record. And that might be a real albatross for them in purple states, where Trump is not universally liked. With an impeachment they are at least put to the test. Trump supporters alone won't (hopefully) be enough in a statewide election.

 

So because you believe real hard Democrats should abandon historically informed strategies and just trust to faith? 

I mean I guess rebellions are built on hope, but this shit I just cannot believe. How often do you people need to be shown that your precious conventions and laws don't mean shit? Really I don't mean to be mean in this particular instance but goddamn, dude. Do you possess working eyes? Have you seen him routinely flout the law with his every breath for years? Did you not hear him invite foreign interference in our election IN 2016 ON CAMERA!?!?!?!

Get your head out of your fucking ass dude. The guy speaks in dribbles of Campbell's Alphabet Soup that routinely spell high crimes against the state. Everyone knows that. They just don't care. And they won't care. 

Seriously. I mean seriously. Just for one second try to think about it without that noxious weed hope poisoning your perspective. The man openly courted interference by a foreign power to stilt the election in his favor. Again, on camera. The definition of 'caught in the act'. And what? You think that the only reason he hasn't been held accountable is that the impeachment articles haven't been invoked? I would love to live in your world for about 5 minutes. I don't think I'd get anything done, but it's gotta be wild in Wish It, Want It, Dreamland.

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51 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think this not nonsense, but simply wrong.

a.) Yes, the old guard remembers the Clinton impeachment, however there the narrative was different (at least from what I can remember). Clinton was a fairly popular President at the time, who was the victim of a witchhunt over some failings at his private life - basically the Republicans going nuts over a blowjob in the oval office; the narrative about it being him lieing to congress did not win out. With the orange thing, I don't think the counter narrative to Democrats going after an obviously corrupt/crooked President will prevail - at least outside Fox News.

b.) On the other hand, house Democrats just look patheticly weak and pathetic for basically hand wringing and not doing much. Oh yeah, the Fox News "witch hunt" is still going strong, and the Democrats just huffing and puffing and spending tax payer money on investigation without consequences. So his minions are already in a frenzy.

I disagree. First it shows the Democrats are actually picking up the fight, and are not just content with getting pushed around by a lawless administration. Again, this dithering looks pitiful. Also, yes, the Senate will probably not convict, however this way the Republican senators are at least on record. And that might be a real albatross for them in purple states, where Trump is not universally liked. With an impeachment they are at least put to the test. Trump supporters alone won't (hopefully) be enough in a statewide election.

 

They'll look even weaker when they impeach Trump and the Senate exonerates him.  Then Trump can go on and on about witch hunts and rile up his base even more.

It really sucks, but we're finding out how broken our democracy really is.  And at least we're finding it out with Bozo the evil Clown rather than a President Lex Luthor.  This way we have at least a small chance of fixing it.

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At this point Democrats are basically damned if they do, damned if they don’t. They look weak if they don’t impeach, but impeachment will only rally Republicans to Trump. This is a dying democracy, and one party is actively celebrating it because it allows them to hold on to power a little longer than they thought they could.

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Pathetically, I wish ... I so pathetically wish, the media would stop saying bedbug tried to pressure Ukraine's president into investigating Biden's son for dirt, and just call it for what it was: Trump pressured Ukraine's president to manufacture lies about Biden's son for his own political gain, in a plain old quid pro quo -- you don't get armaments from me until you do.

How more impeachable high crimes and misdemeaners does get than that?

But in the meantime, Pelosi and her ilks stand around emoting to themselves: "To impeach or not to impeach, that is the question, whether it is nobler to blahblahblahblah and etc."


 

Edited by Zorral

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I see yet another US soldier has been arrested by the FBI for wanting to kill people and bomb places. CNN is reporting that a 24 year old soldier wanted to kill Antifa members, shoot Beto O’Rourke and bomb a ‘major network’s head office building’ among other things. 

Edited by Fragile Bird

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rile up his base even more

the weakness of this oft-repeated point is that his voters are always already riled up.  they don't have a realizable state of contentment. they are the accursed share of the modern world and can never be persuaded by any sort of argument--we will simply have to await their dying off and deal with their nuisance democratically until that time.

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3 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

So because you believe real hard Democrats should abandon historically informed strategies and just trust to faith? 

I mean I guess rebellions are built on hope, but this shit I just cannot believe. How often do you people need to be shown that your precious conventions and laws don't mean shit? Really I don't mean to be mean in this particular instance but goddamn, dude. Do you possess working eyes? Have you seen him routinely flout the law with his every breath for years? Did you not hear him invite foreign interference in our election IN 2016 ON CAMERA!?!?!?!

Get your head out of your fucking ass dude. The guy speaks in dribbles of Campbell's Alphabet Soup that routinely spell high crimes against the state. Everyone knows that. They just don't care. And they won't care. 

Seriously. I mean seriously. Just for one second try to think about it without that noxious weed hope poisoning your perspective. The man openly courted interference by a foreign power to stilt the election in his favor. Again, on camera. The definition of 'caught in the act'. And what? You think that the only reason he hasn't been held accountable is that the impeachment articles haven't been invoked? I would love to live in your world for about 5 minutes. I don't think I'd get anything done, but it's gotta be wild in Wish It, Want It, Dreamland.

I get it, Jace, but wtf.  What do you mean 'abandon historically informed strategies?'.  Are you referring to that one time Republicans impeached Clinton and failed to convict?   Kind of a bullshit rationale for sitting back and doing nothing while the country goes to shit.  

Dems aren't doing shit to fight against this bs and that's on them.  They're so afraid of doing anything or taking responsibility that they're just letting Trump run wild.  Hope has nothing to do with it- when you're in a shitty situation you use whatever tools you have to work your way out.

This sit and wait because it's hopeless strategy isn't a strategy - it's cowardice. 

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

At this point Democrats are basically damned if they do, damned if they don’t. They look weak if they don’t impeach, but impeachment will only rally Republicans to Trump. This is a dying democracy, and one party is actively celebrating it because it allows them to hold on to power a little longer than they thought they could.

  If they're damned of they do damned if they don't, then impeach the motherfucker.  If you're already fucked might as well go out swinging.

And they're already singing the witch hunt shit.  If they don't impeach, they'll be saying "it was a witch hunt and they had no evidence.  They didn't even impeach".  This isnt hard.  The left needs to stop worrying about how the right will spin shit.

Edited by larrytheimp
Eta:

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14 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

What do you mean 'abandon historically informed strategies?'.  Are you referring to that one time Republicans impeached Clinton and failed to convict?

I agree it's fair to point out we have only one instance to base this on and jumping to conclusions based on one case is never too wise.  It's also fair to point out that Clinton was, like, 50% more popular than Trump.  However, the key for me to still lean towards the "not impeach" side is it's simply going to come off as a political loss.  When the Senate fails to convict, there will be "hot takes" and "think pieces" galore on how the Dems overplayed their hand -- and not just from FNC and Breitbart, etc. 

If you have no chance to convict, which pretty everyone acknowledges (or at least should), then the calculous is purely political.  And it's gonna look like very damn bad politics when Trump is "exonerated" by the Senate, bottom line.  That may not be the case in every country, but US politics is all about scoreboard - that's just the way it is.  You could say "well you could put GOP Senators in a tough race in a bind."  K, who?  McSally, Tillis, and Ernst?  Ernst would probably stick with the president anyway, but even if all three felt it electorally wise to vote against, he's still not gonna get convicted.  So that point doesn't really have any resonance.

That being said, as I argued the last time we talked about this a few months ago, the House Dems could turn up the volume on investigations - still pretty much waiting on that one.  It's not like they're too busy passing actual legislation, there's no excuse there.  Plus I still think the censure is a decent compromise.  It'd be pretty historic, and the Senate isn't even required to take it up if the House passes a resolution (and almost certainly wouldn't), so it's not gonna look like a loss.

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A George Takei post just popped up on my Facebook page, revealing that a massively popular pro-Trump Facebook page, ‘I Love America’, is run by...guess who... Ukrainians.

eta: 10 Ukrainians, one person from France, one from Kazakhstan and 1 token American.

lol-sob

Edited by Fragile Bird

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55 minutes ago, sologdin said:

rile up his base even more

the weakness of this oft-repeated point is that his voters are always already riled up.  they don't have a realizable state of contentment. they are the accursed share of the modern world and can never be persuaded by any sort of argument--we will simply have to await their dying off and deal with their nuisance democratically until that time.

They are the sea gulls of homo saps.  I'm starving I'm starving I'm starving nevermind I can't fly coz I've stuffed myself with french fries so much I can't move I'm starving and I never get what I want and deserve,

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43 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I get it, Jace, but wtf.  What do you mean 'abandon historically informed strategies?'.  Are you referring to that one time Republicans impeached Clinton and failed to convict?   Kind of a bullshit rationale for sitting back and doing nothing while the country goes to shit.  

.

'Historically informed strategies' was indeed meant to remind of the Clinton fiasco, but also of the fact that Donald Trump is incapable of being held accountable for his crimes. Which should be apparent to anyone who has lived on or around this planet for the last 4 years. 

It's not fair. It shouldn't be like this. But the fact is that the man has and will continue to get away with it. He will never see the inside of a prison cell, he will never be brought to account for his crimes, and he's probably going to 'win' the presidency again. Ignoring reality doesn't make it go away unless you're a Republican. So if that's the type of rationalizing you're into I think you picked the wrong team. Don't feel bad, I sometimes wish I had taken the heartless conservative road myself. 

But, we chose the paths we chose. So I don't get to steal from the unwashed masses and you really shouldn't decide your political stances based on fantasies. 

The absolute best case scenario for liberal democracy is that Trump decisively loses next year and doesn't demand a redo of the election. That is a feasible, if optimistic, appraisal. Anything else is just a wish. And wishes belong at the bottom of a well with unwanted children.

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1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

And they're already singing the witch hunt shit.  If they don't impeach, they'll be saying "it was a witch hunt and they had no evidence.  They didn't even impeach".  This isnt hard.  The left needs to stop worrying about how the right will spin shit. 

This.

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3 hours ago, argonak said:

They'll look even weaker when they impeach Trump and the Senate exonerates him.  Then Trump can go on and on about witch hunts and rile up his base even more.

 we're finding out how broken our democracy really is.  And at least we're finding it out with Bozo the evil Clown rather than a President Lex Luthor.  

They will look weaker.  They're in their best position of strength now. It was never their intention to put themselves on the line.   Their notion was to remain untouched while spewing the BS.  Once they leave their safe cover behind and step into the bright lights they'll no longer be living the dream of the cockroach.  And if they have to justify the procedings all of a sudden?  Yes they'll be looking extremely weak.  If you thought that was coming, you fell for their BS (instead of marinating in it for fun as you were meant to as a card carrying member.)

And in there I also saw an admission that Trump isn't really that bad.  Yup.  The reason this democracy is broken is because democrats are no longer accepting that it's a two party system.   That's problematic.   Nobody threw Obama out, and that mofo undermined our interests around the globe decisively, was the most opaque administration of all time... nobody knew what the "Change!" was in the end because he wasn't telling anybody shit.  And yet we called it an odd style choice and waited for the next election.  We didn't become babies.  We handled that shit a lot better than you guys are now.

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I see yet another US soldier has been arrested by the FBI for wanted to kill people and bomb places. CNN is reporting that a 24 year old soldier wanted to kill Antifa members, shoot Beto O’Rourke and bomb a ‘major network’s head office building’ among other things. 

It’s amazing how fucking clueless right wingers are. They think antifa is an organization and has members.

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1 hour ago, sologdin said:

rile up his base even more

the weakness of this oft-repeated point is that his voters are always already riled up.  they don't have a realizable state of contentment. they are the accursed share of the modern world and can never be persuaded by any sort of argument--we will simply have to await their dying off and deal with their nuisance democratically until that time.

I'm not sure about the bolded. There are many signs that right-wing populism, or trumpism, or ethno-nationalism, or neo-fascism... Whatever you may want to call these similar movements, will not die out with any given generation.

1 minute ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Nobody threw Obama out, and that mofo undermined our interests around the globe decisively, was the most opaque administration of all time...

Wut?

2 minutes ago, The Mother of The Others said:

And if they have to justify the procedings all of a sudden?  Yes they'll be looking extremely weak. 

Fun fact: if Trump were to be impeached it would technically be the most legitimate presidential impeachment in US history. Trump himself admitted to a number of what are undeniably impeacheable actions on camera multiple times, which is of course unprecedented, since pretty much all his predecessors were at least careful about not admitting any wrongdoings unless they were cornered and had no choice.
Problem is, impeachment is a political procedure, so it is not merely about doing what's "right" it is about gaining a political advantage on the other party.

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1 hour ago, sologdin said:

rile up his base even more

the weakness of this oft-repeated point is that his voters are always already riled up.  they don't have a realizable state of contentment. they are the accursed share of the modern world and can never be persuaded by any sort of argument--we will simply have to await their dying off and deal with their nuisance democratically until that time.

Waiting for them to die off is incredibly wrong headed and naive. There’s a whole laundry list of times and issues where lefties have assumed that their opposition was naturally headed for defeat and as soon as a few crazy diehards gave up the ghost they would naturally be able to move in and remake the country according to their superior vision and plan. Almost without exception that assumption has blown up in the face of the people who believed it and the right wing has rolled over the left when it turned out that there plenty of righties around and they could inspire plenty of followers among the next generation(s).

Resistance to the New Deal didn’t die in the 50s, racism and opposition to Civil Rights didn’t end when KKK bomb makers of the 60s died or became irrelevant, etc. The alt-reich and Neo Nazis running around on the streets and online are in their 20s, not their 80s or 90s.

You gotta fight for it, put in the work, win the public argument, (yes, even with the general populace that are uninformed and uninterested) and above all, learn how to sell it, and not just to a receptive audience.

Otherwise you’re just sitting around waiting for a day that’ll never come. (Or, absolute best case scenario, by the time it comes you’re just another laughable and outdated relic whose pet causes are long past their day.)

That said, I fully agree with your other point that worrying about how the right reacts and gets riled up is pointless. It’s going to happen, it’s not like Fox and Breitbart and the Stormers of the world are ever going to stop riling people up, no matter the lies and fabrications that need to be told to serve their purposes.

Edited by Paladin of Ice

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