COVID19/4 Keep calm and wash your hands

[BigFatCoward]

2 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I don’t even want to look at mine. Though I’m in it for the long haul, assuming at some point it bounces back before I am a pensioner 

Well she is only 2, so its got time to bounce back, I hope we don't have 16 years of sorrow to come. 

[Fragile Bird]

4 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Well she is only 2, so its got time to bounce back, I hope we don't have 16 years of sorrow to come. 

Good grief, man!

Historically speaking it takes about two years to recover from a bear. It only took 18 months to recover from the 2008 financial crisis.

[BigFatCoward]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Good grief, man!

Historically speaking it takes about two years to recover from a bear. It only took 18 months to recover from the 2008 financial crisis.

You think there is any previous crisis that you can compare this to?

I wasn't being entirely serious, i recognize that things go up and down, but right now my account looks pretty bleak. 

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, BigFatCoward said:

You think there is any previous crisis that you can compare this to?

I wasn't being entirely serious, i recognize that things go up and down, but right now my account looks pretty bleak. 

You do have a double whammy of Brexit and coronavirus. You guys do have mutual funds, right? Buy some US stock funds as an account booster.  
 

Bad situations? The Depression was really bad, stocks went down 90%. It took 4 years to recover.

[3CityApache]

Well, if the full lockdown mode that more and more countries are experiencing right now takes longer, imagine the inevitable rebound, when people finally will be able to spend money after weeks (or possibly months) of closed stadiums, cinemas, theatres, museums, shopping centers etc. The way I see it, the recession might be very steep, but also very short-lived, when the situation is settled.

[BigFatCoward]

1 minute ago, 3CityApache said:

Well, if the full lockdown mode that more and more countries are experiencing right now takes longer, imagine the inevitable rebound, when people finally will be able to spend money after weeks (or possibly months) of closed stadiums, cinemas, theatres, museums, shopping centers etc. The way I see it, the recession might be very steep, but also very short-lived, when the situation is settled.

Who is going to have money to spend if everybody hasn't earned anything for 3-4 months?  More importantly where will they spend it when potentially every bar, restaurant, cafe, cinema, shop has gone out of business. 

[DaveSumm]

7 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Who is going to have money to spend if everybody hasn't earned anything for 3-4 months?  More importantly where will they spend it when potentially every bar, restaurant, cafe, cinema, shop has gone out of business. 

Or more likely, the threat of the virus hasn’t completely gone away and nobody wants to go to those places.

[3CityApache]

7 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Who is going to have money to spend if everybody hasn't earned anything for 3-4 months?  More importantly where will they spend it when potentially every bar, restaurant, cafe, cinema, shop has gone out of business. 

From what I know most people still earn money and I assume we will learn to swich even bigger chunk of the economy into virtual world before it all ends. I have no doubt there will be plenty of new shops, cafes, cinemas, restaurants etc. for every one that gone out of business when the dust falls.

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

From what I know most people still earn money and I assume we will learn to swich even bigger chunk of the economy into virtual world before it all ends. I have no doubt there will be plenty of new shops, cafes, cinemas, restaurants etc. for every one that gone out of business when the dust falls.

I wouldn't say most. There's an awful lot of people who don't have the kinds of office jobs that can just be done virtually. And even those that do, a lot of those companies rely on customers who don't have those kinds of jobs; which means the longer it goes on, the more likely it is that even people with telework jobs start getting furloughed/laid off as well. And the people who do still have incomes are likely to increase their savings rates as well, rather than spending.

Sure, on a long enough timeline things will look fine again, but there's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people.

[lessthanluke]

26 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Well, if the full lockdown mode that more and more countries are experiencing right now takes longer, imagine the inevitable rebound, when people finally will be able to spend money after weeks (or possibly months) of closed stadiums, cinemas, theatres, museums, shopping centers etc. The way I see it, the recession might be very steep, but also very short-lived, when the situation is settled.

What money will people have after that much time without work?

[lessthanluke]

11 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

From what I know most people still earn money and I assume we will learn to swich even bigger chunk of the economy into virtual world before it all ends. I have no doubt there will be plenty of new shops, cafes, cinemas, restaurants etc. for every one that gone out of business when the dust falls.

Weird sense of optimism based on what?

[Ran]

Just now, lessthanluke said:

What money will people have after that much time without work?

The Nordic countries, at least, have substantial wage protections for those laid off or on sick leave. Many costs people have -- going out to bars and events, travel, work commutes, etc. -- won't be eating too much into that even if they're getting 75% of their usual salary or what have you. 

The Spanish Flu really was just a blip as far as the economy was concerned, even though social distancing and quarantining were widely practiced, so there's some reason to think that a year from now everything will be ticking along as it was. 

It'll be a long twelve months, though.

[ljkeane]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

And even those that do, a lot of those companies rely on customers who don't have those kinds of jobs; which means the longer it goes on, the more likely it is that even people with telework jobs start getting furloughed/laid off as well.

Absolutely. I could theoretically do a lot of my job from home but most of the work I do requires other people to actually be going in to work so there's a very limited time period were I'd actually have anything to if the entire country is in lockdown.

[3CityApache]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Sure, on a long enough timeline things will look fine again, but there's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people.

I agree of course there's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people, that's beyond doubt. I just think the recovery period might be shorter than it now seems given the severity of the situation.

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

I agree of course there's going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people, that's beyond doubt. I just think the recovery period might be shorter than it now seems given the severity of the situation.

I think this is likely, FWIW. 

[3CityApache]

The biggest bank in Poland has just suspended lay-offs planned earlier for this year (of up to 1200 employees). They said in a statement, that in current situation the priority is to maintain consistency of customer service. One would think they would do completely the opposite.

Also, most banks have just agreed to postpone mortgage payments for 6 months.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Just so everyone knows soap is better than hand sanitizer:

https://www.insider.com/why-soap-is-better-defense-against-coronavirus-than-hand-sanitizer-2020-3

If you can get soap use soap.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

This feels super dire since we are in the middle of it, with no end in sight.  I continue to think that at least the state of New York is closed until, best case, Memorial Day, worse case Fourth of July.  But, I think others are right, there will be a lot of pent up demand and things will start up again.  We will need a federal government with the political will to basically print money and bail out small businesses and hourly workers.  My own fear is that the current administration doesn't do that so this lags until 2021.  

I'm doing small things.  I'm trying to connect actors and servers who are friends with my babysitter with families that need childcare right now and can afford to pay.  I'm helping to organize volunteers in my neighborhood to deliver groceries etc. to the elderly in the neighborhood (at door, not coming in) who should not be going out, and in the worst case, to provide emergency pet care etc.  It helps. 

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Daniel Goldman was positive and says he now feels almost 100% better -- had 3 days of flu-like symptoms (fever, headache, cough). Still quarantined, though. He's Skyped in earlier today to MSNBC to discuss it

Wasn't he one of the ones in that cruise shipped docked outside of Japan?  

I would think that if you want a true idea of the potential fatality rate, you would look at a self contained environment like that where almost everyone was exposed, and where almost everyone was tested.

[Ran]

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Wasn't he one of the ones in that cruise shipped docked outside of Japan?  

No. He was the Democratic counsel during impeachment. He thinks he picked it up in London on a trip.

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I would think that if you want a true idea of the potential fatality rate, you would look at a self contained environment like that where almost everyone was exposed, and where almost everyone was tested.